Circana June 2025: #2 Death Stranding 2 #3 Mario Kart World #10 Rune Factory ; Switch 2 sold 1.6M, Mario Kart retail + bundle 82% attach rate (~1.3M)

Well, he's right, a walking sim is not and never will be mainstream and the wacky story for the sake of it, is not really easy for the mainstream to click with, so I guess he got what he wanted, a niche, divisive sequel incapable to beat the sales of the first game, cool if he's OK with that, Sony got scammed twice tho :pie_roffles:
Kojima is about making video games as high art but he may be forgetting the business side:

"Sony is pleased, of course, but I do wish I was a bit more controversial. Blockbuster films need an 80 percent approval rating – I don't want to make games like that. I'm not interested in appealing to the mass market, or selling millions of copies."

Not sure they bankroll the sequel unless they just want to chase awards.
 
Nintendo killing it again.


I blame the $70 price tag tbh.

Lots of new AAA games had big breakout numbers this gen with price tags below $70.

And some of these companies want to go to $80 games!!!!!!!!!!

Elden Ring Nightreign was the number 1 PS5 game of 2025. So that "new release" AlineaAnalytics article and @Mattyp posts were likely bullshit too? Wow, can't say I'm surprised.

What thread was this in?

ZyLXnxs6H1Epc1SP.jpeg

Wow!!! Nintendo caked up!!
 
It's also a Kojima game. So it has that going against it. His words, not mine:

"If everyone likes [your work], it means it's mainstream. It means it's conventional. It means it's already pre-digested for people to like it." "I don't want that," Kojima reportedly told Lemoine.
Kojima games are to exquisite for peasants… If the game sells a lot of copies is equal to fail, thats why DS2 is going to sell less than DS1…A Brilliant mind… A genius.
BC7nM2QsIrP1BY5I.jpeg
 
They gave it away for free twice on Epic store, the game is $18 on steam if you want to count those as sales feel free.

I'm not counting EGS and PS+ downloads as sales, and my post specifically mentions 'steep discounts'. But discounted sales ARE sales too.

If you're going to claim that the game sold nothing after July 2021 and even the directors cut release version sold nothing, then you've got bigger problems than videogames.

Please slow down and read. It helps
 
With Sony barely sharing any sales numbers, if any, this is a BOLD statement.
We have some


+ the insomniac leaks
 
And some of these companies want to go to $80 games!!!!!!!!!!



What thread was this in?



Wow!!! Nintendo caked up!!
He brought it up in a completely unrelated thread here:
Just a friendly reminder FH5 is the best selling game on PS5 for 2025.

Complete bullshit I suspect being regurgitated from AlineaAnalytics article here:

 
No it didn't, less than 1.5 million, do you need to be an expert with inside to know a AAA first party game that currently looks like the most advanced graphics in any console game and the cast is all Hollywood mega stars, even the characters that are not played by Hollywood mega stars are modeled after Hollywood mega directors yeah that game has a massive budget?
You said Death Stranding 1 sold 5 million, I said it sold more. Which is true, the 5 million figure is from 4 years ago.

You claim Death Stranding 2 has sold less than 1.5 million but that is an estimate and also only covers the first week of sales. It has also not even released on PC yet.

All your arguments apply to the first game as well, which didn't exactly have any noteworthy sales charts performance either.
 
We have some


+ the insomniac leaks
For what it's worth, all of these are lower than the PS4 predecessors
 
Kojima is about making video games as high art but he may be forgetting the business side:
But what is high-art of video games, a story and lots of cutscenes or gameplay innovation?

I'd argue Nintendo is pushing the medium more on high-art with evolved player interactions with the game world.
 
But what is high-art of video games, a story and lots of cutscenes or gameplay innovation?

I'd argue Nintendo is pushing the medium more on high-art with evolved player interactions with the game world.
Not going to argue against that but if you look at the sales, I think they understand they're a business trying to appeal to the mainstream.
 
Not going to argue against that but if you look at the sales, I think they understand they're a business trying to appeal to the mainstream.
True. Nintend is a business that understand it's business. I'm not even sure they care if games are art.

I just prefer their POV on gaming, than Kojima or Naughty Dog, where story is key and they build the game around that. Where Nintendo demos a function and builds the story around that. Maybe I'm wrong.
 
We have some


+ the insomniac leaks
So, still old data ?
 
For what it's worth, all of these are lower than the PS4 predecessors
Two of them are on PS4.
Edit:
Spider-Man 2 went on to sell five million after just 11 days on sale. And now, Sony has confirmed it's sold 10 million after 107 days on sale. To put that into more context, Marvel's Spider-Man, which launched on PlayStation 4 in 2018, sold nine million copies after 80 days on sale, and 13.2 million after 325 days on sale.
 
Last edited:
You said "Sony barely sharing any sales data" and that was Sony sharing sales data.

Sure, they don't update their games sales every quarter as NIntendo does it, but it's not like we don't know if these games are a success or not (they are)
Oh for sure, it would be better if Sony was more transparent like Nintendo is, but I don't think they change.
 
I am a big Kojjma fan, enjoyed DS1 and also a Sony Pony, so I have no interest in seeing DS2 flop or reason to be one of these supposed "haters".

Whilst I don't think DS2 has been a flop at all, I am part of the camp that believes it has underperformed.

I am interested in this subject because I only play single player narrative focused games like DS2 and yet despite the critical acclaim and weight behind the title it is struggling to break into the mainstream and the audience appears to be becoming more niche for these games.

I think this is why some are interested in commenting on its sales figures. We are alarmed by the trend and how all the gaming hours is getting sucked up by things like GAAS and a handful of titles. The newer kids on the block just ain't interested.

That's part of it, but I also think lack of traditional advertising (at least from what I've noticed) is a big contributor as well. Has anyone seen any commercials on TV for it? In theaters? Any billboard adverts?

Just noticed FF16 is the 4th best selling Xbox game despite being a 2 year old port and being shadow dropped without any prior marketing / pre-order cycle.


GG Square, hopefully they learnt keeping games locked to a platform was bad for them.

XVI being exclusive to PS5 isn't why it underperformed. It being a highly divisive game of questionable quality in various areas is why it underperformed.

"Exclusives are bad" has been a BS argument for decades; MS trying to make it popular again doesn't change that it's still a trash talking point.

Actual Circana analyst: It done quite well, actually
GAF: OMG IT UNDERPEFORMED

Ok.

Not throwing shade at Mat, but he's been "particular" about certain data to share vs. not share when he felt it represented something of significance. Like the exact Switch 2 numbers we got this month? We probably won't get that again.

IIRC there was something else earlier this year where he gave a specific number for a game and some were questioning why he did it for that specific title. Point is, "doing quite well" and "underperforming by some factor" aren't mutually exclusive things.

Looking globally, DS2 has absolutely underperformed. Is it within SIE & KojiPro's expectations? We don't know yet. It's not an admonishment to the game's quality, clearly. I actually blame lack of advertisements as a big contributor to the softer sales, and SIE's PC strategy starting to catch up to them a bit (i.e FOMO isn't the bait they thought it'd be) as another factor.
 
"Exclusives are bad" has been a BS argument for decades; MS trying to make it popular again doesn't change that it's still a trash talking point.

Not sure what MS has to do with it, Square Enix have been publicly saying the same thing for a bit now. They're the ones we're talking about here with FF16.





 
Last edited:
Not sure what MS has to do with it, Square Enix have been publicly saying the same thing for a bit now. They're the ones we're talking about here with FF16.





Squeenix is a 3rd party publisher though.

Granted, so is MS.🤷🏾‍♂️
 
I think the evidence is pretty strong now that exclusivity for JRPGs is a bad move.

There isn't a huge market for them on Xbox but on Steam and Switch 2 it's a different story.

Metaphor, Clair Obscure and FF7 Rebirth have all sold strongly on Steam.

Rebirth was impressive as it was a year late release and the port wasn't high effort, although it was competent enough. There are some estimates suggested it sold over 1mil on Steam alone.

Then factor the sizeable audience for JRPGs on Switch 2 as well. So for certain genre's exclusivity is no longer the way to reach your audience.
 
There's a massive difference in the importance of exclusivity between platform-holders and 3rd party publishers.

You know that as well. It's apples to oranges.

Ok?

Square is a third party company, not sure what platform holder exclusives have to do with them in the first place, but sure.

On that tangent, Helldivers 2 is Coming to Xbox on August 26: Pre-Order Today. 🙏
 
Ok?

Square is a third party company, not sure what platform holder exclusives have to do with them in the first place, but sure.
You decided to focus on a comment about MS "exclusives are bad" mantra specifically.
On that tangent, Helldivers 2 is Coming to Xbox on August 26: Pre-Order Today. 🙏
Enjoy, it's a great game.

I already pre-ordered Hellblade 2 for PS5, so we both have something to look forward to.😘
 
Last edited:
You decided to focus on a comment about MS "exclusives are bad" mantra specifically.😘

eh? I'm not the one who brought in MS into the discussion lol, I merely pointed out to thicc that Square themselves have talked about moving away from platform exclusivity.

Please folks, don't automatically default to "MS bad" when replying to me, it's not a gotcha statement :messenger_grinning_sweat:
 
eh? I'm not the one who brought in MS into the discussion lol, I merely pointed out to thicc that Square themselves have talked about moving away from platform exclusivity.

Please folks, don't automatically default to "MS bad" when replying to me, it's not a gotcha statement :messenger_grinning_sweat:
I know you didn't bring it up.

I just pointed out that countering the mantra of a platformholder doing badly with statements from a 3rd party publishers is like comparing apples to oranges.
 
Last edited:
Estimates for PS5 and XBS pending, will update when we get them (PS5 has to be above 260K) EDIT: Now Updated

Welfare's June Estimates

NSW2: 1600K
PS5: 300K
NSW: 95K
XBS: 70K



MonthPS5XBSNSWNSW2
January240,000125,000130,000-
February300,000155,000135,000-
March355,000160,000150,000-
April220,000115,00090,000-
May225,00070,00075,000-
June300,00070,00095,0001,600,000
YTD1,640,000695,000675,0001,600,000
LTD26,230,00016,935,00048,115,0001,600,000


Estimations for 2024


MonthPS5XBSNSW
January425,000210,000255,000
February410,000195,000225,000
March525,000215,000240,000
April240,000110,000150,000
May220,000115,000145,000
June330,000165,000190,000
July370,000250,000155,000
August230,000135,000125,000
September280,000150,000165,000
October290,000175,000140,000
November1,220,00430,000620,000
December1,390,000540,000840,000
Total5,930,0002,690,0003,250,000
Lifetime24,590,00016,240,00047,440,000
 
Last edited:
It's kind of a prestige title yes. But I think the thing that a lot of people are missing here is:
1) Both games are sequel titles to arthouse hits that launched at increased pricing and not on their original systems (gen gap between PS4/Xbox One and PS5/XS), people WILL bounce off series, even good ones for any kind of reason.
2) Hellblade 2 probably got fucked over badly being on GP day 1 AND on Xbox only when its "home audience" was the PS4. Microsoft really needs to figure out how 1P titles should be positioned on GP. They shouldn't be guaranteed to be day 1, and they certainly shouldn't be guaranteed to stay on there everyday.

IMO MS have to totally commit one way or another with GP going forward if it's going to survive. Either they put actual exclusives on the service (as in, 1P releases only available through GP and don't get B2P physical or digital releases until some months later), or they end putting 1P games in the service altogether (turn it into a perks-based service). Obviously, the former would be a gamble to drive real growth again, while the latter would be them preparing to sunset the whole initiative at some point in the near future.

Both, though, show a definitive stance on their part which is something they've failed to do for years now and which has contributed to the service's growth basically stalling out.

I think E33 is the current frontrunner now, the narrative is too good to not win, sort of similar to Astro Bot last year.

Dunno; something still tells me Geoff is not gonna let his buddy Kojima go empty-handed for GOTY in a year DS2 releases. E33 would still easily win the Player's Choice (basically GOTY voted on by gamers) award anyway, and Best RPG plus some other awards. Also keep in mind Geoff likes to cozy up to Hollywood almost as much as Kojima, and Death Stranding 2 is somewhat symbolic in that aspect too.

If it can't win GOTY or even Player's Choice, that could be a harbinger in disrupting that games + Hollywood synergy people like Geoff want to establish. Personally I wouldn't mind DS2 losing out simply on those grounds alone, because I'm not a big fan of the Hollywood-ification of gaming. But that aspect right there is what I'm feeling will get DS2 the GOTY win. As for gamer backlash, well there was already a lot of that last year when Astro Bot won over Black Myth Wukong, and some people were saying it's because Sony "paid for it" (as if other companies don't pay for advertising or favor at these award shows, especially at events like The Oscars :/).

I can see some of them losing their shit if yet another PS exclusive wins GOTY two years in a row. But, I'm also of the opinion DS2 will get a port to Steam before the year's over with; in fact they could announce the port right at the Game Awards and that'd pair well with it getting GOTY plus stemming crybabies over the fact it's "another PS exclusive" winning since technically that wouldn't be the case anymore.

That's how I'm expecting it to play out, but we'll see I guess.

True, but also it's a damned walking simulator with hollyweird actors attached to it in an era where people don't care about hollyweird actors anymore, so it has everything going against it, story is wacky as hell, "gameplay" is there if you liked the first one, if you didn't, well it's a waste of money to even think about buying a used copy and it can't just rely on the pretty graphics alone to sell to a wider audience 🤷‍♂️

Maybe Death Stranding 3 should cast streamers instead?

Kojima is about making video games as high art but he may be forgetting the business side:

"Sony is pleased, of course, but I do wish I was a bit more controversial. Blockbuster films need an 80 percent approval rating – I don't want to make games like that. I'm not interested in appealing to the mass market, or selling millions of copies."

Not sure they bankroll the sequel unless they just want to chase awards.

Personally, I'd argue that as a platform holder, SIE have a responsibility to produce games like Death Stranding and use them as showcase titles. They may not be the biggest sellers but they do boost the profile of their hardware.

Of course, this is the same SIE that might be gradually drifting away from prioritizing their own hardware through means of action where it matters, and with someone like Totoki in charge I wouldn't be surprised if they scaled back support for titles like Death Stranding to chase more ports on other platforms or GAAS instead. It's a sad but increasingly possible reality I've been preparing for over the past few months.

Not sure what MS has to do with it, Square Enix have been publicly saying the same thing for a bit now. They're the ones we're talking about here with FF16.






MS were parroting that talking point for years, right as the ABK stuff started intensifying. But yes, Square-Enix have espoused some dumb rhetoric themselves. They've been very quick to lay blame on outside factors versus admitting that their own dev pipeline for some of these games isn't as solid as it should be, and their sales expectations for certain titles being so unrealistic it's become a meme.

Until they address those problems, and until they settle on an identity for FF that most of the fanbase likes and can be built off of consistently through future installments, then multiplatform focus for the IP will only have a very modest benefit at best. A game like E33 coming out of seemingly nowhere and obliterating FF XVI at its own game should be both embarrassing and sobering for Square-Enix.

I think the evidence is pretty strong now that exclusivity for JRPGs is a bad move.

There isn't a huge market for them on Xbox but on Steam and Switch 2 it's a different story.

Metaphor, Clair Obscure and FF7 Rebirth have all sold strongly on Steam.

Rebirth was impressive as it was a year late release and the port wasn't high effort, although it was competent enough. There are some estimates suggested it sold over 1mil on Steam alone.

Then factor the sizeable audience for JRPGs on Switch 2 as well. So for certain genre's exclusivity is no longer the way to reach your audience.

You just kinda proved that JRPG exclusivity can work, if it's (in your mind) the right platform(s).


I swear it's gotta pain Welfare to write these every month.
 
If its really that bad in xbox stronghold in mid 2025 i would guess it gives us more and more reasons for microsofts next gen mashine to be pushed forward, maybe it wont launch holidays 2027 but holidays 2026 and if gta6 gets yet another delay(say to oct/nov 2026) it could turn out new xbox is best place to play new gta at?
mind-blown-gif-2.gif
 
If its really that bad in xbox stronghold in mid 2025 i would guess it gives us more and more reasons for microsofts next gen mashine to be pushed forward, maybe it wont launch holidays 2027 but holidays 2026 and if gta6 gets yet another delay(say to oct/nov 2026) it could turn out new xbox is best place to play new gta at?
mind-blown-gif-2.gif
Pulling the plug on hardware would be much wiser.

But Xbox doesn't exactly seem to have much wisdom.
 
It should be impossible for a console in its fifth year to have bigger year on year drops than a console in its eight year (which also got replaced during that month), but Xbox just achieved that in June. If Microsoft does not reverse course on Xbox pricing, Xbox may end up at around 38-39M lifetime sales at best (Given that its basically stopped selling in Europe, Japan and anywhere else outside NA).

56 % year on year declines is basically end of gen sales declines, not something a console should be seeing less than 5 years after launch.
 
Last edited:
But what is high-art of video games, a story and lots of cutscenes or gameplay innovation?

I'd argue Nintendo is pushing the medium more on high-art with evolved player interactions with the game world.

And many of us would argue that there's more ways to display high-art in a video game. Plus.......what Death Stranding did was innovative. You can't take that away from the game. Lets not act like it's only Nintendo that can other new experiences.
 
Context of no.7 during DS1 launch month
1. Call of Duty: Modern Warfare 2019
2. Star Wars Jedi: Fallen Order^
3. Pokémon Sword*
4. Pokémon Sword and Pokemon Shield Double Pack*
5. Pokémon Shield*
6. Madden NFL 20
All different genres.

1. People who play cod, only play cod, or fortnite...., and maybe a sports game (like madden, lol) Cod and gaas players = same audience, the majority of them aren't buying a single player game period. These are the same weirdos who don't play the campaign of their own game as all they want to do is "pawn newbs" while blasting rap music and screaming kids in the mic, while they blow bong hits at their children or pets.... ( i kid, but those people do exists, lol)

2. Pokemon- 3 games on your list are pokemon. It has its own niche audience. There are a ton of people who don't like pokemon, myself included, i don't get the appeal, I was 20 when the game came to the states, so it never even registered with me other than a kids game. Sure it has a draw, but not the same people buying a realistic story based game.

3. Madden, see point 1, plus the teens and sports obsessed people who have been playing football on the small screen since Tecmo bowl... (oh wait that is me, but I don't play madden, only Tecmo bowl, also not sports person).

4. Star wars Jedi Fallen Order - This is really the only title that would have taken away from DS1. Although star wars allure has been greatly diminished due to Disney sequels, this game had its fans and draw.

Death Stranding was plagued with being weird. It didn't have traditional gameplay. All it had was Daryl Dickson /Norman Reedus as a draw and people who knew kojima from Metal Gear. The weird walking simulator vibe threw a ton of people off. A game I normally would of bought day 1 turned into, I'll get it on sale, which i did when it was on PC for cheap.

Death Stranding 2 will have the same issues but more. It's a sequel, you need to play the first game to be invested to try the 2nd. Same shit happened with FF 7 pt2 and tlou2. Games like Metal Gear, Assassins Creed, Resident Evil, (normal) Final Fantasy, get by with sequels as they are all separate entities. A continuing story that relies on the original game will always have less sales compared to say MGS1-> 2 -> 3, etc... or Uncharted 1-> 2.
 
Last edited:
I think we need to talk about how Xbox's #2 selling game didn't reach the Top 20 overall charts. And Final Fantasy XVI? I expected better. When late PS ports of Microsoft games release, at least many of them show up on NPD, including Grounded. Why isn't XVI on the top 15 list here?
 
Last edited:
I think we need to talk about how Xbox's #2 selling game didn't reach the Top 20 overall charts. And Final Fantasy XVI? I expected better. When late PS ports of Microsoft games release, at least many of them show up on NPD, including Grounded. Why isn't XVI on the top 15 list here?
because being a top seller in that ecosystem clearly doesn't mean as much as it used to.
 
I think we need to talk about how Xbox's #2 selling game didn't reach the Top 20 overall charts. And Final Fantasy XVI? I expected better. When late PS ports of Microsoft games release, at least many of them show up on NPD, including Grounded. Why isn't XVI on the top 15 list here?
Talk about what? This topic has been discussed extensively. We don't even know how many monthly active users Xbox actually has, but it's fair to assume most just subscribe to Game Pass.
 
Top Bottom