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[Rentahamster]

Many people are angry that turnout for Hillary was low. Many are blaming third party voters for not voting for her #imwithher. How much of a difference would that have made, anyway? WSJ does some number crunching.

I tend to believe that berating third party voters for not voting the way you want them to demonstrates a lack of information about why people vote, and how to convince them to join your side.

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2016/11/14/how-third-party-voters-influenced-election-2016/

(If you can't access the article, try and click to it from this google search)

https://www.google.com/search?q=The...he+hands+of+Republican+Donald+Trump+last+week

With 99% of precincts reporting, Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein together drew about 4% of the national popular vote — the highest third-party vote total in 16 years. The more than five million combined votes that the two of them drew together were much bigger than Mr. Trump’s narrow winning margin over Mrs. Clinton — leading to questions about whether Ms. Stein and Mr. Johnson played the role of spoilers.

The analysis, in which third-party votes were reassigned to both Mr. Trump and Mrs. Clinton, finds that Mrs. Clinton would have needed to win 70% of the vote share that went to the Libertarian and Green parties across all eight states to claim victory. Capturing that percentage of the third-party vote would have put Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin in her column — giving her enough electoral votes to narrowly win the election.

In another scenario, even if every one of Ms. Stein’s left-leaning supporters is assigned to Mrs. Clinton in those same eight states, she still would have needed to win more than 50% of Mr. Johnson’s supporters to flip enough states to win the election.

That would have been a significant challenge among a group of voters whose reasons for casting a third-party vote, while difficult to determine, appeared to be somewhat driven by disgust or distaste of both major-party nominees. Exit polls show that nearly half of voters who disliked both candidates broke for Mr. Trump, while another 22% either voted for a third party, didn’t cast ballots in the presidential race or declined to tell pollsters how they voted.

In short, it’s likely that Libertarian Party ticket with two experienced, moderate Republican governors drew disaffected voters from both sides with its brand of left- and right-leaning policy positions, though there is some evidence in the polls that the party drew more from Mrs. Clinton. Voters supporting Ms. Stein may have been inclined to back Mrs. Clinton over Mr. Trump if forced to choose, but it’s likely that a significant percentage would have refused to vote at all instead of voting for the more-centrist candidate.

 

[BronsonLee]

Yeah that shit wasn't happening, don't blame the third party people, blame the flops who voted for Trump

 

[Skellig Gra]

Honestly, I think without Johnson Trump wins by even more. So probably should keep looking for another scapegoat.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

Third party voters should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all. Their opinions on politics are worthless.

 

[jorma]

Hey i know for sure that if all of Trumps voters had voted democrat, Hillary would have won.

But they didn't, because they voted for the person they wanted to vote for, just like third party.

I'll never get the point of that talking point.

 

[badcrumble]

If you think Johnson voters would've defaulted to voting for Clinton instead of Trump, you don't know much about libertarians.

 

[Orbis Tabula]

Yeah that shit wasn't happening, don't blame the third party people, blame the flops who voted for Trump

Yuuuup.

 

[norm9]

Voting for Harambe doens't seem so funny now.

 

[Volimar]

Honestly, I think without Johnson Trump wins by even more. So probably should keep looking for another scapegoat.

Yep. I'd guess almost 2 to 1 Johnson votes were Republicans. Though I suppose you could argue that without Johnson, those Republicans disgusted by trump might have held their nose and voted for Hillary, but there's just no way of knowing.

 

[CrimsonSquall]

Third party voters should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all. Their opinions on politics are worthless.

While I wouldn't go that extreme, I will say that both 3rd party candidates were complete garbage.

 

[Fox Mulder]

Whatever, clinton fucking sucked. Thousands even went to vote and only left the presidential one blank.

If the media and left wasn't up our own asses, we may have lessened the complacency that was bred by trump having a 99% chance of losing.

 

[ElectricBlanketFire]

I blame Ric Flair.

 

[phanphare]

yeah the whole berating 3rd party voters is just intellectually dishonest. it was when people were going after them back when bush got elected and it is now. I was pretty surprised (ok maybe not surprised) to see people like rachel maddow bang that gong. she should know better and she likely does.

Third party voters should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all. Their opinions on politics are worthless.

yeah I mean, if you only think the top of the ticket matters then sure. that's not even close to being correct, however, so I'd probably disagree.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

While I wouldn't go that extreme, I will say that both 3rd party candidates were complete garbage.

3rd party candidates have no chance to win. They're always garbage.

 

[Stumpokapow]

The best estimate of Florida 2000 (Herron and Lewis 2007 - "Did Ralph Nader Spoil a Gore Presidency? A Ballot-Level Study of Green and Reform Party Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election") suggests roughly 60% of Nader voters would have voted Gore--not the closer to 100% that most assume.

Projecting this forward to Stein's vote today, it seems like that the most likely two-party vote allocations would still have led to a Trump victory.

 

[And_Gignac]

If you think Johnson voters would've defaulted to voting for Clinton instead of Trump, you don't know much about libertarians.

Yeah.

And Stein was basically nothing. Her votes were fringe, irrelevant.

This is still an authoritarian discussion. No one is entitled to the votes of anyone. People vote for whoever they want, and thats it. Thats democracy.

 

[Boney]

Rachel Maddow in all her wisdom concluded that third parties were responsible and she's on TV.
Check mate.

 

[Audioboxer]

Third party voters should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all. Their opinions on politics are worthless.

Nope. The Dems have to look at why liberals are being lost to 3rd party not tell these people to go fuck themselves. I can assure you that is not going to work out very well.

Now the independent candidates? Trash. Johnson only marginally better than Stein.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

Want third party votes? Get a candidate that can pull them in.

Third party voters should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all. Their opinions on politics are worthless.

Grow up. Instead the DNC should be asking what is it about their platform that isn't bringing those votes in.

 

[Linkura]

I don't blame the third parties for this one at all. Hillary should have easily been able to win if her campaign wasn't shit.

 

[CrimsonSquall]

I think we as a nation should put more emphasis on abolishing the electoral college not just immediately after an election, but for the years to come following one as well over hating on 3rd party voters and candidates. That is much more relevant to an election

 

[Rentahamster]

I think we as a nation should put more emphasis on abolishing the electoral college not just immediately after an election, but for the years to come following one as well over hating on 3rd party voters and candidates. That is much more relevant to an election

I would rather try to focus on getting rid of "first past the post" style elections in some areas as an experiment, first.

 

[Skellig Gra]

I think we as a nation should put more emphasis on abolishing the electoral college not just immediately after an election, but for the years to come following one as well over hating on 3rd party voters and candidates. That is much more relevant to an election

Um no, you think pursuing a constitutional amendment is a realistic course of action in this political climate?

 

[collige]

I would rather try to focus on getting rid of "first past the post" style elections in some areas as an experiment, first.

Maine just voted to start doing this, actually.

 

[VendettaRed07]

90,000 people that voted in Michigan left the presidential section blank.

The result was due to just how negatively both candidates where viewed by pretty much everyone. We'd be smart not to completely ignore unfavorables whether we feel they are justified or not, again.

 

[Sanke__]

I think it's a pretty safe bet third party voters would have gone about 50/50 and wouldn't have made a difference

 

[Kathian]

Don't berate people for voting for what they support - blame an electoral system that punishes them for it.

 

[LegendofLex]

This analysis is based on removing third-party candidates from the picture entirely and allocating all their votes to one of the two candidates.

I think the resentment toward third-party voters in this election is directed at the roughly half or so bloc that typically leans Democrat, probably knows how bad a choice Trump is, and allowed that to be the outcome anyway, not at the 50% or so who lean Republican but just can't bring themselves to vote for Trump (that's the bloc you'd expect to vote third-party).

 

[Rentahamster]

Maine just voted to start doing this, actually.

Oh, I didn't know that. That sounds cool

 

[VendettaRed07]

I think we as a nation should put more emphasis on abolishing the electoral college not just immediately after an election, but for the years to come following one as well over hating on 3rd party voters and candidates. That is much more relevant to an election

It simply isn't going to happen. The majority of states would lose electoral power. Might as well undo the connecticut compromise and have senate seats be proportional to a states population as well. Smaller states will never ever agree to it.

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

yeah I mean, if you only think the top of the ticket matters then sure. that's not even close to being correct, however, so I'd probably disagree.

Well, I'm talking about the top of the ticket. Most down-ballot candidates are dem or repub either way.

Nope. The Dems have to look at why liberals are being lost to 3rd party not tell these people to go fuck themselves. I can assure you that is not going to work out very well.

Anyone considering themselves a liberal who voted 3rd party is not worth the hassle of being reasoned with.

 

[andythinkpad]

If DEM keep offering candidates as unappealing as Hillary, I will keep voting third party.

Yeah, keep pinning the blame on me.

 

[Mr-Joker]

Rather than trying to blame folks who voted third party blame Clinton for trying hard enough to sway folks over to vote for her.

 

[NoblesseOblige]

I haven't seen many people leverage the entire, or even much blame on third party voters. Most seem to recognize a number of faults. Personally, as a Michigan resident, I easily see her failure to appeal to the white uneducated (aka rural) population here.

Edit: If anything I almost wonder if Trump would have just won by more if voters were given a second choice candidate. Surely Johnson supporters align closer to Trump than Clinton?

 

[Torokil]

100% of 3rd party voters would have all defected to Hillary, because-

 

[eot]

3rd party candidates have no chance to win. They're always garbage.

a) their goal is not to win
b) even if it were that's beside the point


Anyway, "blaming" anyone is stupid. 3rd party voters don't owe their votes to Hillary. A political party can only blame itself, because no one else owes them jack shit.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

Maine just voted to start doing this, actually.

I wish Maine started doing that BEFORE Paul LePage stole an election. (only to be re-elected of course, go figure.)

 

[phanphare]

Well, I'm talking about the top of the ticket. Most down-ballot candidates are dem or repub either way.

ok...you said that 3rd party voters (you know, people who voted) should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all

which is silly considering one group actually voted and the other didn't

that's what I'm saying

you think 3rd party voters just voted for president and then left the booth?

 

[NintendoGal]

I just want to say thank you for this thread.

 

[Stumpokapow]

90,000 people that voted in Michigan left the presidential section blank.

The result was due to just how negatively both candidates where viewed by pretty much everyone. We'd be smart not to completely ignore unfavorables whether we feel they are justified or not, again.

Right. The assumption going into the the election was that low favourables would hurt both candidates, but differentially hurt Trump. What we saw is two candidates with low ceilings--and possibly even Trump's ceiling lower than Hillary's--but Hillary having a weaker floor than Trump's core.

 

[DontBeThatGuy]

100% of 3rd party voters would have all defected to Hillary, because-

I remember Nate Silver or someone said more Johnson voters would've broke to Clinton than Trump(for whatever reason), if they decided to stop supporting that idiot, but who really knows at this point. The data is tainted.

 

[Hackworth]

How much of the disenfranchised black vote would she have needed?

 

[DeathoftheEndless]

ok...you said that 3rd party voters (you know, people who voted) should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all

As I said before, they should be treated the same as non-voters in terms of presidential voting.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

If DEM keep offering candidates as unappealing as Hillary, I will keep voting third party.

Yeah, keep pinning the blame on me.

Exactly. It's not enough to be "not the other guy".

 

[Zukkoyaki]

If you think Johnson voters would've defaulted to voting for Clinton instead of Trump, you don't know much about libertarians.

Most people who vote libertarian don't know much about libertarians

 

[Morrigan Stark]

If you think Johnson voters would've defaulted to voting for Clinton instead of Trump, you don't know much about libertarians.

Anecdotal, but I do know plenty of people who voted for Obama and would otherwise vote Democrat, that voted for Gary Johnson because "eww Hillary I don't like her". The kind of libertarians that hate the GOP because of their authoritarian evangelism that want to ban pot and same-sex marriage, for instance.

The best estimate of Florida 2000 (Herron and Lewis 2007 - "Did Ralph Nader Spoil a Gore Presidency? A Ballot-Level Study of Green and Reform Party Voters in the 2000 Presidential Election") suggests roughly 60% of Nader voters would have voted Gore--not the closer to 100% that most assume.

Projecting this forward to Stein's vote today, it seems like that the most likely two-party vote allocations would still have led to a Trump victory.

I don't know. How the hell does a Green voter reconcile choosing Bush over Gore, let alone Trump over a Democrat? They are extreme lefties and over a third of them would have picked the right-wing candidate? That doesn't sound right.

Most people who vote libertarian don't know much about libertarians

lol, very true. A friend of mine calls himself a Libertarian and voted Johnson (he's in Utah so w/e, that didn't matter much but still), he voted Obama and hates the GOP. But he's a "libertarian" who knows nothing about the actual libertarian platform. He's in favour of universal health care, regulations on business, environmental regulations/protection, etc. *facepalm*

If DEM keep offering candidates as unappealing as Hillary, I will keep voting third party.

Yeah, keep pinning the blame on me.

Gladly. Congrats on electing Trump because "Hillary is unappealing" despite having a solid platform.

 

[SecretMoblin]

maddow has been a mess for a while but it's nice to be reminded of her corporate, partisan blindness

Third party voters should be treated the same as people who don't vote at all. Their opinions on politics are worthless.

third-party voters tend to be (much) higher-information voters than the ones who reflexively vote for a major party candidate, and most don't vote for third-party candidates in every election (meaning they can be persuaded to vote for a major candidate)

sneering at them and calling them whiny privileged idiots doesn't really help you achieve your political goals, even if it's something you believe.

 

[CopperPuppy]

Yeah that shit wasn't happening, don't blame the third party people, blame the flops who voted for Trump

Yeah, this. I have nothing personally to back it up, so it's more of an uneducated gut-check, but my sense is that Johnson was probably a net positive for Clinton. Stein's numbers are, if not negligible, then insignificant.

 

[CHC]

Most third party voters are wildcard nutjobs who may just as well have voted for Trump.

The real question is what percentage of the Republican vote she needed, or better yet, what percentage of the Sit On My Ass Doing Nothing vote.

 

[Mammoth Jones]

How much of the disenfranchised black vote would she have needed?

I don't know but it's probably inversely proportional to the extent that Black voters have not have their concerns addressed.

Most third party voters are wildcard nutjobs who may just as well have voted for Trump.

That or Clinton was a shitty choice. It's not enough to not be as horrible as your opponent.