I don't usually break down games, so I thought I would take another look at my predictions for the Auburn Georgia game.
I think Auburn has a good chance of rushing for between 240 yards and 325 yards (their average +/- 15%) and scoring 3-4 rushing TDs. I'm not sure that this will be enough to beat Georgia, so either the special teams will have to put up some points or Marshall will have to connect with Coates for a score or two to beat the Dawgs.
Auburn ended up rushing for 322 yards and scored 4 rushing TDs. This wasn't enough to bury Georgia, and it took a late, miracle pass from Marshall for them to come out on top.
Hell, here's my prediction for the AU-UGA game: Georgia will win if: (1) they can force AU to attempt more than 22 passes; (2) they rush for more than 150 yards as a team; and (3) they win the time of possession battle by 5 minutes or more.
Auburn and Marshall ended up attempting 27 total passes. However Georgia ended up only rushing for 118 yards and lost the time of possession battle by almost 10 minutes.
Auburn wins if any of these things happen: (1) Todd Gurley is held to less than 50 yards or gets knocked out of the game in the first half; (2) Marshall attempts less than 15 passes; or (3) AU rushes for their season average or greater (280 yards).
Gurley was held in check for the first half, but did end up getting 80 rushing yards for the game. As discussed above, Marshall (26) attempted more than 15 passes, but Auburn had another stellar day rushing the ball and ended up with 322 yards, or 115% of their season average coming into the Georgia game.