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College Football Week 11 - "They'll come to Iowa for reasons they can't even fathom"

Lonestar

I joined for Erin Brockovich discussion
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I mean, sure, Alabama's the top dwag of the week, but Florida/FSU, A&M/LSU or Ole Miss/Miss State could easily fit in at the CBS Shitshow.


Also, John Oliver did a bit on Fan Duel/Draft Kings thats pretty great. @ the 4 minute mark, Joe Namath bluntly tells it like it is.
 

andycapps

Member
Florida in the top ten this year really exemplifies how much the SEC east completely nosedived below even mediocre expectations. People were betting on Kentucky and Tennessee having up and coming programs but they both underwhelmed, this was Georgia's year but a lack of QB and terrible injuries made them a non-factor, Missouri imploded and lost their QB, and South Carolina did so bad that Spurrier quit. Also, Vanderbilt.

It's been a fun ride, but we're not all that different than Muschamp's Florida with a horrific offense that's constantly saved by a strong defense. McElwain's getting a lot of praise and I think he'll get the team he wants in time, but I'm not sure this sudden swing is completely due to him. He now has extremely unrealistic expectations heaped on next year but a better position for recruiting. It's weird.

I can't disagree with any of this. I will say that I think/hope that Georgia putting over 50 on Spurrier might have been the straw that broke his back. Gives me a warm feeling in my heart thinking that.
 

Lunar15

Member
There was a good three year period after Tebow left where Verne would randomly blurt out "Tim Tebow" with no context whatsoever in the middle of Gator games. Like, we'd be on defense and make a sack and then you'd just hear a slightly confused Verne mumbling "Tim Tebow".

So awkward, my friends and I used to joke about it a lot.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
My question is why didn't Texas Tech try an onside kick? You've literally got nothing to lose.


We were up 59-44 with about 1:02 left in the game. The game was basically over barring a miracle, and if you're trying to avoid a miracle you'd much rather face the terrible Kansas State offense than the always solid Kansas State special teams unit. They only got one first down before throwing an INT to end the game.

Kansas State had already returned one kick for a touchdown, recovered one onside kick a little while before the play in the video, and then recovered a second onside kick that was nullified by an offsides penalty. Tech has also had a bit of a history recently (under Tuberville mostly IIRC, so not TOO recently) of having onside kicks returned for opposing touchdowns.
 

Karl2177

Member
We were up 59-44 with about 1:02 left in the game. The game was basically over barring a miracle, and if you're trying to avoid a miracle you'd much rather face the terrible Kansas State offense than the always solid Kansas State special teams unit. They only got one first down before throwing an INT to end the game.

Kansas State had already returned one kick for a touchdown, recovered one onside kick a little while before the play in the video, and then recovered a second onside kick that was nullified by an offsides penalty. Tech has also had a bit of a history recently (under Tuberville mostly IIRC, so not TOO recently) of having onside kicks returned for opposing touchdowns.

I remember the Iowa State one. Looked up other Tech onside fails and found out this happened the week afterwards. Against Iowa State. The following week against Baylor.
 
Once again, this board's SEC-centric roots shine through. Not enough of you are acknowledging the B1G's superiority this year. Have any of your teams even beat a B1G team?
 

mre

Golden Domers are chickenshit!!
Once again, this board's SEC-centric roots shine through. Not enough of you are acknowledging the B1G's superiority this year. Have any of your teams even beat a B1G team?

Apologies, we're over here trying to figure out how in the holy fuck Florida swept the SEC East after losing so much last year. New coach or not.
 
I really want Clemson to win it all. That'd be awesome. I was raving about Deshaun Watson last year but wasn't sure they'd make the jump this quickly.. thought maybe his Junior year. He's an incredible talent.

I still see Clemson getting to the ACC title game, losing to UNC, and ending up 5th or 6th and getting to watch a Notre Dame team that they beat slide into the number 4 spot. :(
 
I still see Clemson getting to the ACC title game, losing to UNC, and ending up 5th or 6th and getting to watch a Notre Dame team that they beat slide into the number 4 spot. :(

The way Carolina has been playing, they might claim the 4 if they beat Clemson.

Of course, this simply means that Carolina will regress to the mean and lose to VA Tech or NC State in the next couple of weeks.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
The way Carolina has been playing, they might claim the 4 if they beat Clemson.
Possible, but they'd need a fair bit of help. They've got the "started too low" problem right now.

Four Big 12 schools ahead of them in the last rankings that ALL have 2 top 15 matchups left to add to their resumes, two undefeated B1G teams and a third with 1 loss, two SEC teams with 1 loss, Notre Dame with 1 loss, etc. Some of that will take care of itself (Big XII teams play each other, SEC CCG takes care of one, etc.) but there is a lot ahead of UNC that they need moved out of the way.
 
Possible, but they'd need a fair bit of help. They've got the "started too low" problem right now.

Four Big 12 schools ahead of them in the last rankings that ALL have 2 top 15 matchups left to add to their resumes, two undefeated B1G teams and a third with 1 loss, two SEC teams with 1 loss, Notre Dame with 1 loss, etc. Some of that will take care of itself (Big XII teams play each other, SEC CCG takes care of one, etc.) but there is a lot ahead of UNC that they need moved out of the way.

That's the thing, built into the thought is the notion that teams in front will necessarily fall, because they'll be playing each other.

Ohio State will face Michigan State. One of those teams will lose and eject themselves from the conversation. MSU, with 2 losses, would be done, and it would be hard for Ohio State to recover from a loss this late in the season. Then in the CCG, Iowa will play Ohio State or Michigan State. That's a loser leave town match. Big Ten's 3 are now down to at most 1.

The Big XII. Only one can emerge, and there's still the possibility of none. This week has TCU/OU and Gondo State/Baylor, and next week is TCU/Baylor and Gondo State/OU. All are in front of UNC right now, but they'll weed themselves down to 1 contender.

Florida and Alabama are ahead of UNC right now, but they'll settle that in the CCG. Only one, at most, is getting in.

Anyway, just to bring this home, here's the AP top 12 for this week. (Let's assume the CFP is roughly this, but who knows.) Let's play the season forward with the other guys eliminating one another, and UNC beating Clemson in the ACC CCG. I'll strike through the possible eliminated, and for the purposes of this exercise, I'm just allowing the higher ranked teams to survive (other than Clemson) their gauntlets.

1 Clemson
2 Ohio State
3 Alabama
4 Oklahoma State
5 Notre Dame
6 Iowa
7 Oklahoma
8 Florida
9 Michigan State
10 Baylor
11 TCU
12 North Carolina

Based off attrition, UNC could move up to 5, and then I think it would come down to UNC versus Notre Dame, and style points versus Clemson (common head-to-head) might matter. Edit: I'd favor Notre Dame to get the nod, given their schedule versus North Carolina's, but still, it's not a difficult road to 5, at the very least.
 

JCX

Member
Speaking of PS4s, I have to send my sole DualShock 4 to Sony for repair because it won't charge anymore despite being only seven months old.

They wouldn't send me a brand new one despite the fact that the entire system - controller included - is still under warranty.

So yeah, fuck Sony.

Sony bricked my Vita with a firmware update and refused to fix it unless I sent them a copy of the receipt. Thankfully I bought it online and had an email copy or I would have been screwed. Their customer service is very poor.
 

Lunar15

Member
You don't have to tell me twice that the SEC is overrated, but I think it shakes out in the end. I mean, look, the whole conference was overrated in the pre-season rankings, but all those teams are way out of the top 25 now. You can point and say that this makes Alabama overrated, and maybe it is, but it's still a pretty solid team. The only team that's way out of its league right now is Florida, and I say this as a UF fan. It doesn't matter though because we play our big ooc game against FSU at the end of the year and then Alabama in the SEC championship game. If we're that much out of our league, then tack on two more losses and bam, that's about right.
 

Lonestar

I joined for Erin Brockovich discussion

Did some number checking earlier, and here's the top 6 current teams OPPONENTS, and how many FCS and Non P5 teams they each played:

Alabama's opponents: 8 FCS teams 31 Non P5 teams
Ohio State's opponents: 8 FCS teams 35 Non P5 teams
Notre Dame's: 6 FCS 41 Non-P5
Clemson's: 8 FCS 24 Non P5 & played an FCS team already (wofford) making it 16 FCS and 25 non P5
Okie State's: 7 FCS 22 Non P5 & played an FCS team (central arkansas) making it 16 FCS and 22 non P5
Iowa's: 7 FCS 23 Non P5 & played an FCS team (Illinois St.) making it 16 FCS and 23 non P5

So far, the teams have very similar creampuffs, with OSUn and ND having more non-p5 playing teams on their schedule so far, but that'll change as Alabama will now have a playing bye week to make up ground on those 2's weak schedules.
 
Did some number checking earlier, and here's the top 6 current teams OPPONENTS, and how many FCS and Non P5 teams they each played:

Alabama's opponents: 8 FCS teams 31 Non P5 teams
Ohio State's opponents: 8 FCS teams 35 Non P5 teams
Notre Dame's: 6 FCS 41 Non-P5
Clemson's: 8 FCS 24 Non P5 & played an FCS team already (wofford) making it 16 FCS and 25 non P5
Okie State's: 7 FCS 22 Non P5 & played an FCS team (central arkansas) making it 16 FCS and 22 non P5
Iowa's: 7 FCS 23 Non P5 & played an FCS team (Illinois St.) making it 16 FCS and 23 non P5

So far, the teams have very similar creampuffs, with OSUn and ND having more non-p5 playing teams on their schedule so far, but that'll change as Alabama will now have a playing bye week to make up ground on those 2's weak schedules.

I'm not sure what this stat actually suggests, though. Most teams play FCS teams at least once or twice. Notre Dame's number is lower because they play USC who doesn't shedule them...and any team that plays Notre Dame or USC will have a lower number of FCS teams for that same reason.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member
That's the thing, built into the thought is the notion that teams in front will necessarily fall, because they'll be playing each other.

snip

Your post kind of proves my point. Even in your example there are 4 teams ahead of them. Getting up to #5 is "easy." Getting up to #4 will require a fair bit of help.

It's possible that no Big XII teams get in again, but that would require a perfect storm of losses IMO. Even though almost all of the contenders still play each other, keep in mind that there are still a few scenarios in which we end up with 2 Big XII teams that only have 1 loss or fewer; OU and Baylor winning out would make them both 11-1, while Oklahoma State and TCU winning out would make the Gondos 12-0 and TCU 11-1. That means that the Big XII could still realistically have TWO teams that are ranked higher than UNC right now, would finish the season with the same or better record, and would have the overall better strength of remaining schedule (two top 15 games versus one #1 game).

Odds would definitely vary depending on the specific team, but particularly with the two top 15 teams left to add to each of their SOSs I think there are 3 Big XII teams that could end up with 1 loss but still win the conference and stay ahead of 1-loss UNC (Baylor being the outlier, I think they're essentially totally out of it with their OOC schedule). OU would definitely stay ahead IMO, the other two are arguable but I'd bet on them falling behind.

This all disregards style points by all teams involved, of course. Ohio State dropping a nuke on Wisconsin last season mucked up a fair number of predictions.
 

Lonestar

I joined for Erin Brockovich discussion
I'm not sure what this stat actually suggests, though. Most teams play FCS teams at least once or twice. Notre Dame's number is lower because they play USC who doesn't shedule them...and any team that plays Notre Dame or USC will have a lower number of FCS teams for that same reason.


That while the ND's and OSUn's are all about the "we don't play FCS teams" they're opponents are happy enough to do so, while also currently playing more Non-p5 teams. Did you know that Boston College has played 2 FCS teams and Penn State has played 4 Non-p5 teams?

Stanford's schedule, like most PAC, is good, yes. Helped by the 9 game conference schedule. Result: Their opponents played the same amount of FCS teams that Alabama's opponents have, 8. Only 23 Non-P5 teams played, though. Most of the PAC has went with the 1 FCS 2 N-P5 route, rather than 3 n-P5 or better (like Stanford's 2 Power5 and 1 Non-P5 opponents). UCF though, woof.
 
You know what I want to see in the Big 12?

Week 12: TCU>OU, Baylor>OSU
Week 13: Baylor>TCU, OU>OSU
Week 14: Texas>Baylor

Four True Champions™
 

mre

Golden Domers are chickenshit!!
Week 11 Pick 'Em Results

GoldenEye breaking some records this week.
Week 11 Results said:
name [ w11_score ]
GoldenEye007 [ 12 ]
xeris [ 8 ]
perfectchaos007 [ 7 ]
Randolph Freelander [ 7 ]
bucknuticus [ 7 ]
MrJames [ 7 ]
Karl2177 [ 7 ]
cdyhybrid [ 6 ]
lonestar [ 6 ]
Dsyndrome [ 6 ]
Ganhyun [ 6 ]
zyxwvu4321 [ 6 ]
Battlezone [ 6 ]
FelixOrion [ 6 ]
cashman [ 6 ]
chaosblade [ 5 ]
chicko1983 [ 5 ]
andycapps [ 5 ]
Kacar [ 5 ]
timetokill [ 5 ]
Mac the Knife [ 5 ]
Frustrated_Grunt [ 4 ]
Fragamemnon [ 4 ]
theprodigy [ 4 ]
sf2fanatic [ 4 ]
Monroeski [ 4 ]
ryseing [ 4 ]
pxleyes [ 4 ]
ag-my001 [ 3 ]
FloydtheFathead [ 3 ]
Subitai [ 2 ]
GoldenEye was also the only one who scored points off of the Bonus. Fournette was held to 82 yards below his average, and GoldenEye guessed -70.

And a new leader appears:
name [ tot_score ]
GoldenEye007 [ 67 ]
perfectchaos007 [ 66 ]
xeris [ 62 ]
zyxwvu4321 [ 62 ]
cdyhybrid [ 61 ]
Fragamemnon [ 61 ]
Randolph Freelander [ 59 ]
bucknuticus [ 59 ]
Kacar [ 59 ]
FloydtheFathead [ 59 ]
MrJames [ 57 ]
Karl2177 [ 56 ]
Dsyndrome [ 54 ]
cashman [ 54 ]
FelixOrion [ 53 ]
Monroeski [ 53 ]
lonestar [ 52 ]
chaosblade [ 52 ]
timetokill [ 52 ]
Frustrated_Grunt [ 52 ]
theprodigy [ 52 ]
ryseing [ 52 ]
andycapps [ 51 ]
Ganhyun [ 50 ]
sf2fanatic [ 49 ]
Subitai [ 48 ]
pxleyes [ 47 ]
ag-my001 [ 47 ]
chicko1983 [ 45 ]
Mac the Knife [ 45 ]
Battlezone [ 42 ]
AlteredBeast [ 42 ]
The Outsider [ 36 ]
Westonian [ 33 ]
 
Week 11 Pick 'Em Results

GoldenEye breaking some records this week.

GoldenEye was also the only one who scored points off of the Bonus. Fournette was held to 82 yards below his average, and GoldenEye guessed -70.

And a new leader appears:
Damn. I think I might have reached the total offensive points scored by UCF this season!
 

Bama is going to join the B1G. I believe in that rumor strongly from a few years ago.

Apologies, we're over here trying to figure out how in the holy fuck Florida swept the SEC East after losing so much last year. New coach or not.

The SEC East IS TERRIBLE! It is not like the B1G. The Conference of Champions.

All I know, is this:
CT8_moLUYAAs8l6.png

That's because the B1G teams all beat each other up in conference play. This chart doesn't take into account the B1G's Deflation Effect on records! Neither does it take into account SOS of the opponents B1G teams play. Their opponents have poorer records because of their high SOS!
 

mre

Golden Domers are chickenshit!!
In other words it's restating what we already know, that the Pac plays an additional conference game while the SEC plays a fourth game against Rice.* :p
*Not that there's anything wrong with that.
 

andycapps

Member
That's a grand difference of 1 between the Pac-12 and the SEC. Whoopdie do.

We could also look at who those P5 games are against and how many are against top teams OOC or if they're scheduling games against Purdue, Kansas, Syracuse, Rutgers, etc.

Looks like Tennessee is still having problems with their turf at Neyland. South Carolina and North Texas have complained about it. Looked like shit when UGA was there this year, who knows if Chubb's injury was related to it or not though. It did look like shit two years ago when we lost a couple guys for the season due to that monstrosity that was missing patches of grass and the dirt had to be painted green. If they can't figure out how to get the sod to work, need to replace that shit with artificial turf. I hate that stuff but it's better than an inconsistent playing surface.

If they want to figure out how to do turf, they need to talk to the grounds people at UGA, though it would require a bit of work to redo it like that. I believe they have a pretty substantial drainage system that is able to handle a couple of inches of rain per hour if necessary. Type of grass might also have something to do with it. Believe Neyland uses Rye grass, whereas UGA uses a Bermudagrass variety.
 

Monroeski

Unconfirmed Member

I can't believe that I'm actually saying this but I hate about 99% of what Baylor football has become. Having supported the Bears since I was a kid, I would never have believed we have become one of the villains of college football and it's completely warranted. We have the worst human beings on our sidelines (save a select few), our coaching staff is littered with incompetence/lack of discipline and our fans are really horrible and completely lacking any etiquette.

a4hqbBY.gif
 
Still basking in how I absolutely destroyed GAF's SEC contingent.

Let's go back to discussing the best conference in the land - B1G. Soon to be BACK 2 BACK NATIONAL CHAMPIONS IN FOOTBALL.
 

Karl2177

Member
Still basking in how I absolutely destroyed GAF's SEC contingent.

Let's go back to discussing the best conference in the land - B1G. Soon to be BACK 2 BACK NATIONAL CHAMPIONS IN FOOTBALL.

A true Rutgers fan wouldn't bask in the success of the Ohio State University. Therefore, you are not a true Rutgers fan.
 
A true Rutgers fan wouldn't bask in the success of the Ohio State University. Therefore, you are not a true Rutgers fan.

A true Rutgers fan always supports his coach, his school, and then his conference. You would know this if you were a true Rutgers fan.

The fact that the B1G is such a great conference just goes to show that we need to have more faith in Flood. He's fighting against the best of the best, and holding his own.
 
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