-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
(Commentary) It's far from game over for Xbox; Microsoft likely to top Sony in game w
- Thread starter sonycowboy
- Start date
TheGreenGiant
Banned
AniHawk said:
well, Nintendo IS profitable. They'll do fine. Unlike Sega; they have franchise that can sell millions. They can just do games for their own console; bit of an oddity and not going to happen for all intents and purposes; and still do okay.
Drey1082 said:
I'd rather Nintendo fight with all they have rather than go third party and become like Sega. Much of Nintendo's profits come from royalty fees and first party games. I would hate to see The Legend of Zelda become just a Tomb Raider clone or Super Mario platformers years down the line to be like Sonic is now.
Granted- if Nintendo went bankrupt, the franchises would be picked up by other companies. I just wouldn't like to know that Eiji Aonuma and Shigeru Miyamoto being the ones in charge of said games (like Naka is now).
SantaC
Member
AniHawk said:
Yes I agree. If Nintendo went 3rd party they would probably lose their spark and soul for making AAA games again. I mean look at SEGA. They still put out some good games as 3rd party, but the AAA games they made in the past are simply not there anymore.
Now Nintendo themselves have stated they will never go 3rd party, so I am not that worried.
SantaCruZer said:
A Nintendo merger with Panasonic or Canon and a large development house like SquareEnix or Namco and Capcom would really hurt Sony, primarily. The Xenon lacking backwards compatibility, no HD, likely lack of strong Japanese support, early launch and weaker graphics power vis a vis Revolution and PS3 give it a Dreamcast-like aura. MS HAS to acquire a big Japanese house to compete with Sony next gen.
Knowing that Sony has more debt than liquid assets (early this year), Sony may not be able to hype as much as MS can/will for Xenon. OTOH, Sony continues to become more and more of a media monopoly- purchasing MGM on top of all their other subsidiaries and devisions.
An interesting next six years is ahead of us.
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
Nintendo still has the wherewithal to make a strong comeback next generation. I know people have been saying it forever, but Nintendo can be significant again with a little energon, and a lot of luck.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
can someone please explain what is so obviously wrong with this article?
"A Nintendo merger with Panasonic or Canon and a large development house like SquareEnix or Namco and Capcom would really hurt Sony, primarily. The Xenon lacking backwards compatibility, no HD, likely lack of strong Japanese support, early launch and weaker graphics power vis a vis Revolution and PS3 give it a Dreamcast-like aura. MS HAS to acquire a big Japanese house to compete with Sony next gen."
why would N merge with anyone? please explain. And why is the JPN market so relevant? it's the least profitable region, so if the XB2 takes big chunks of the US and europe, what difference does JPN make as the shrinking market? Xenon - what is to say that the units capacity will be that far from the Ps3s? It just depends on HOW PEOPLE HAVE SPENT MONEY TO GET CERTAIN RESULTS.
thanks,
d.c.
"A Nintendo merger with Panasonic or Canon and a large development house like SquareEnix or Namco and Capcom would really hurt Sony, primarily. The Xenon lacking backwards compatibility, no HD, likely lack of strong Japanese support, early launch and weaker graphics power vis a vis Revolution and PS3 give it a Dreamcast-like aura. MS HAS to acquire a big Japanese house to compete with Sony next gen."
why would N merge with anyone? please explain. And why is the JPN market so relevant? it's the least profitable region, so if the XB2 takes big chunks of the US and europe, what difference does JPN make as the shrinking market? Xenon - what is to say that the units capacity will be that far from the Ps3s? It just depends on HOW PEOPLE HAVE SPENT MONEY TO GET CERTAIN RESULTS.
thanks,
d.c.
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
DCharlie said:
it's totally Xbox.
Duckhuntdog
Member
radioheadrule83 said:
I have no doubt that we will see another GBA. But as far as another home console AFTER Revolution, I am not so sure about. Third-parties just aren't interested in deving for the thing, granted they know very little about it, but they only know slightly more about the PS3 and they are chomping at the bit to get to that.
I am more than willing to eat crow, should Nintendo somehow make it back to industry relevency. I would probably be pretty happy to see that and ask for more crow.
Duckhuntdog
Member
Redbeard said:
That would all come down to how well Forza does. A GT game is what MS wants and they are willing to fund it to see if they can have it. But should it tank...
TheGreenGiant
Banned
P90 said:
hype or no hype
the phrase
"its a SONY"
still hits home for a lot of commercials -if you watch their ads; they don't trump their features as much as their brand. And you'd be surprised at how well that works in their favour. The PS brandname is still numero uno.
Duckhuntdog
Member
AniHawk said:
He did lower the fees, but Nintendo still charges the highest in the industry. Sony is by far the cheapest.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
HalfPastNoon said:
I was responding to this:
P90 said:
with regards to your question. I dunno
Duckhuntdog
Member
bobafett said:
I am up for it.
DCharlie said:
My post is an "article"? Thx for the compliment.
Nintendo has many reasons to merge: 1) take development houses that primarily develop for other platforms to be exclsuive to Nintendo hardware 2) Have develoment houses that will consistently deliver teen/"mature" content that sells 3) More total assets, financial and IP 4) Panasonic and Canon have $$$$$ and mindshare and expertise in hardware and financial respect- leading to more positive press.
The Japan market sets the tone for the rest of the world. You know that. The Japanese development houses key off of Japan to see where their titles go. Ex: SquareEnix- no Xbox support, minimal GC support, LOTS or PS2 support, Konami-PS2 lots of support, Xbox gets half-baked ports, GC has to make their own port. If you don't have the Japanese houses behind you, you won't win the console war.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
DCharlie said:
yes. But sony is super close with most of the above companies; with the exception of Halo of course - they won't want to be burning any bridges. MS also has a weaker chance with Jap devs. I think you discount the fact that a lot of people only own 1 console; and the brand they will most identify with will still remain PS.
Yeah, I don't think it's out of the realm of possibility that Microsoft will be number one overall next generation.
Having said that, I don't think it's going to happen. I think Sony will continue being number one overall. In the U.S., most of Europe, and Australia, I could definitely see Microsoft taking about 40% of the market, though. I'd guess that Sony would have about 45% in these markets overall. I think Japan, despite its continually decreasing relevancy, will still what makes Sony come out on top overall.
But unlike this generation, I don't think Japan will tip the scales in Nintendo's favor, anymore -- or even get close to it. In Japan, I'd say Sony might have 75% of the market, Nintendo with 20%, and Microsoft with 5%.
Having said that, I don't think it's going to happen. I think Sony will continue being number one overall. In the U.S., most of Europe, and Australia, I could definitely see Microsoft taking about 40% of the market, though. I'd guess that Sony would have about 45% in these markets overall. I think Japan, despite its continually decreasing relevancy, will still what makes Sony come out on top overall.
But unlike this generation, I don't think Japan will tip the scales in Nintendo's favor, anymore -- or even get close to it. In Japan, I'd say Sony might have 75% of the market, Nintendo with 20%, and Microsoft with 5%.
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
"yes. But sony is super close with most of the above companies; with the exception of Halo of course - they won't want to be burning any bridges. MS also has a weaker chance with Jap devs. I think you discount the fact that a lot of people only own 1 console; and the brand they will most identify with will still remain PS."
you are making whole sale associations here - they IDENTIFY with the PS2. The mass market is basically western gamers, would you not consider that a new MS machine with Madden/EA support etc could also have just as much appeal as sony?
"The Japan market sets the tone for the rest of the world. You know that. The Japanese development houses key off of Japan to see where their titles go. Ex: SquareEnix- no Xbox support, minimal GC support, LOTS or PS2 support, Konami-PS2 lots of support, Xbox gets half-baked ports, GC has to make their own port. If you don't have the Japanese houses behind you, you won't win the console war."
.... in Japan. So Japan devs currently controls... oh, that's right... Japan. Why do you think most Japanese devs are getting into the West? Because Japans market is shrinking at an alarming rate. Is the PS2 more western oriented than the Xbox? i think that's up for debate (for better or worse - i'm not saying i agree with what is happening....)
"
Take a look around these forums and all the fanboys. The most entrenched fanboys are system fanboys. The answer to your question is both."
if fanboys opinion = sales, then ICO and REZ would have sold millions of copies. Fanboy opinon does not directly correlate to anything unfortunately.
System fanboyism is the scourge of humanity, it's the confirmation that people are retards.
"If you don't have the Japanese houses behind you, you won't win the console war.""
EA are easily the most important house on the planet. The japanese influence is vastly overplayed.
"And having the Playstation's creator as the head of Sony just guarantees that it will have any and all resources they'll ever need.
But also means that all-important Kutaragi, "Father of the Playstation," has his mind on much more besides the gaming division."
arrrrhhhggghghgh - what makes people think that Kutaragi has all the power!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
you are making whole sale associations here - they IDENTIFY with the PS2. The mass market is basically western gamers, would you not consider that a new MS machine with Madden/EA support etc could also have just as much appeal as sony?
"The Japan market sets the tone for the rest of the world. You know that. The Japanese development houses key off of Japan to see where their titles go. Ex: SquareEnix- no Xbox support, minimal GC support, LOTS or PS2 support, Konami-PS2 lots of support, Xbox gets half-baked ports, GC has to make their own port. If you don't have the Japanese houses behind you, you won't win the console war."
.... in Japan. So Japan devs currently controls... oh, that's right... Japan. Why do you think most Japanese devs are getting into the West? Because Japans market is shrinking at an alarming rate. Is the PS2 more western oriented than the Xbox? i think that's up for debate (for better or worse - i'm not saying i agree with what is happening....)
"
Take a look around these forums and all the fanboys. The most entrenched fanboys are system fanboys. The answer to your question is both."
if fanboys opinion = sales, then ICO and REZ would have sold millions of copies. Fanboy opinon does not directly correlate to anything unfortunately.
System fanboyism is the scourge of humanity, it's the confirmation that people are retards.
"If you don't have the Japanese houses behind you, you won't win the console war.""
EA are easily the most important house on the planet. The japanese influence is vastly overplayed.
"And having the Playstation's creator as the head of Sony just guarantees that it will have any and all resources they'll ever need.
But also means that all-important Kutaragi, "Father of the Playstation," has his mind on much more besides the gaming division."
arrrrhhhggghghgh - what makes people think that Kutaragi has all the power!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!
Teddman said:
Put isn't it common knowledge that MS isn't just focused on videogames? Software, music hardware, itunes-competitor website, PDA/Smartphone OS. They are combating a variety of company's in multiple fields....
Isn't Japan still the 2nd largest single country VG market?
Alcibiades
Member
Ha, until Nintendo posts actual losses (not currency-related financial situations), I don't think you can even put them in a position where one could see them as going 3rd party.
Even then, the GCN has totally outdone the SegaCD, 32x, Saturn, and Dreamcast, and might be more popular then the Genesis when all is said and done. If SEGA lasted that long while posting losses and going into debt, Nintendo can definitely last quite a bit longer while posting minimal profits (even though currently they're doing better than Sony/Microsoft in the games sector).
Nintendo can survive with 20-30% of the market because of the excellent margins that it gets from games and sales of accessories.
If Revolution is 1/2 as popular as GCN, Nintendo would still be drowning in profits.
Nintendo is losing marketshare somewhat, but I don't think it cares, because the dwindling profits still have a ways to go. 3rd party support is still going to be strong from EA, Activision and the major ones. Rockstar is the only major 3rd party still dissing Nintendo.
Even then, the GCN has totally outdone the SegaCD, 32x, Saturn, and Dreamcast, and might be more popular then the Genesis when all is said and done. If SEGA lasted that long while posting losses and going into debt, Nintendo can definitely last quite a bit longer while posting minimal profits (even though currently they're doing better than Sony/Microsoft in the games sector).
Nintendo can survive with 20-30% of the market because of the excellent margins that it gets from games and sales of accessories.
If Revolution is 1/2 as popular as GCN, Nintendo would still be drowning in profits.
Nintendo is losing marketshare somewhat, but I don't think it cares, because the dwindling profits still have a ways to go. 3rd party support is still going to be strong from EA, Activision and the major ones. Rockstar is the only major 3rd party still dissing Nintendo.
Teddman said:
Of course they aren't they don't have appliances, a movie company, etc... however that doesn't change the fact that MS does have many varied markets they are in themselves. They aren't just focused on Windows and Videogames... regardless of what people want to think.
And for folks saying it... as long as Nintendo continues to turn a profit it isn't going anywhere. It's found a niche that it can focus on and be profitable... until someone else hurts its profit line, you aren't going to see much movement there.
I think Nintendo still has some assets that could turn things arround for them. They are still arguably the best game developer in the world.
IF, R launches at the same time than Xenon and PS3 with a revolutionary Nintendo game (a'la Mario 64 for N64), or if Revolution really proposes a groundbreaking new way to interact with games that doesn't seem gimmicky, then people could really be interested in it. I trully believe NDS could really set the mood on to how Nintendo will do in the future trying to diferentiate from its competitors and throwing different ways to play. How people react to it may be a glimpse on what to expect in the future. But once again, Nintendo needs to exploit the fact that if launched at the same time with Msft and Sony they could potentially have the best games available, and they should be better by far if they want to lure more consumers.
IF, R launches at the same time than Xenon and PS3 with a revolutionary Nintendo game (a'la Mario 64 for N64), or if Revolution really proposes a groundbreaking new way to interact with games that doesn't seem gimmicky, then people could really be interested in it. I trully believe NDS could really set the mood on to how Nintendo will do in the future trying to diferentiate from its competitors and throwing different ways to play. How people react to it may be a glimpse on what to expect in the future. But once again, Nintendo needs to exploit the fact that if launched at the same time with Msft and Sony they could potentially have the best games available, and they should be better by far if they want to lure more consumers.
open_mouth_
insert_foot_
I agree with DCharlie. The skies the limit for MS next-gen.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
DCharlie said:
so by your logic; why the fuck did gaming even take off with the NES in the first place. It was a EASTERN machine.
DCharlie said:
Japan is a lot smaller than a western market (us, uk, europe, australia, asia) . But that doesn't mean they make games for Western audiences; they make games for themselves and then sell it to the world. Looking west is more to do with a numbers game than anything. Its a global market and no firm will ignore potential profit.
DCharlie said:
NO.
There's a comment argument that has been used for the last two generations that I don't understand.
Basically it says:
"Japan dev houses influence in the VG market is shrinking"
What is that statement based on? Don't the Japanese dev's continue to focus on genre's that they've been successful in? Are you saying sales of those genre's are shrinking? Using RPGs as one example everything I've seen says those sales seems to be staying about the same which is... good for some titles, bad for other titles.
Can someone flesh out that statemenet for me?
Basically it says:
"Japan dev houses influence in the VG market is shrinking"
What is that statement based on? Don't the Japanese dev's continue to focus on genre's that they've been successful in? Are you saying sales of those genre's are shrinking? Using RPGs as one example everything I've seen says those sales seems to be staying about the same which is... good for some titles, bad for other titles.
Can someone flesh out that statemenet for me?
Mama Smurf summarized it best. Most of the article is just background so there's nothing exactly wrong with that but when Dvorak does actually get around to commentating and offering his own take it's all done very superficially in three statements:DCharlie said:
MS executives are smarter - What's the measure of that exactly?
Sony is bloated - and MS isn't? Shouldn't that be the very definition of a company sitting on $56 billion in cash reserves that's been unable to leverage those to gain more significant foothold after spending three years in this marketplace already?
MS has avoided corporate meddling - so then exactly why has the Xbox languished in distant second or third and seen the departure of key guiding figures like Bach and Fries?
DCharlie
And even i am moderately surprised
"so by your logic; why the fuck did gaming even take off with the NES in the first place. It was a EASTERN machine."
because gaming didn't whole-sale take off with the NES in every region?
"Japan is a lot smaller than a western market (us, uk, europe, australia, asia) . But that doesn't mean they make games for Western audiences; they make games for themselves and then sell it to the world. Looking west is more to do with a numbers game than anything. Its a global market and no firm will ignore potential profit."
Exactly - the western market is growning whilst the japanese market is shrinking. A lot of japanese companies i think will tailor to the western market over the next year or so until the Japanese market stabalises.
"EA are easily the most important house on the planet. The japanese influence is vastly overplayed.
NO."
Why not?
?Mama Smurf summarized it best. Most of the article is just background so there's nothing exactly wrong with that but when Dvorak does actually get around to commentating and offering his own take it's all done very superficially in three statements:
MS executives are smarter - What's the measure of that exactly?"
Totally agreed.
"Sony is bloated - and MS isn't? Shouldn't that be the very definition of a company sitting on $56 billion in cash reserves that's been unable to leverage those to gain more significant foothold after spending three years in this marketplace already?"
Um.... sony aren't sitting on a 56 million reserve though are they? i don't think the two companies are even comparible in that term. Lets be in NO DOUBT , if MS wanted to take the market agressively, they could. If they did, then they would royally SUCK. Competition is the champion of the gamer, and one dominate company (Sony or Ms, or hell, lets through Nintendo in there for a laugh
) would suck ass.
Also , the bloated comment may be in relation to revenue vs profit. Sony's revenue has been going up and up and up, while profits are going down... so Bloated in Sonys case i think hints at the fact that they are getting bogged down with R+D or whatever to the extent that is reducing them to a "break-even" only company.
"MS has avoided corporate meddling - so then exactly why has the Xbox languished in distant second or third and seen the departure of key guiding figures like Bach and Fries?"
a distant second? at worst they are, what?, 100,000 behind what is considered the number 1 gaming company in the world. Having come in with zero pedigree, i'd say that's a fair achievement.
because gaming didn't whole-sale take off with the NES in every region?
"Japan is a lot smaller than a western market (us, uk, europe, australia, asia) . But that doesn't mean they make games for Western audiences; they make games for themselves and then sell it to the world. Looking west is more to do with a numbers game than anything. Its a global market and no firm will ignore potential profit."
Exactly - the western market is growning whilst the japanese market is shrinking. A lot of japanese companies i think will tailor to the western market over the next year or so until the Japanese market stabalises.
"EA are easily the most important house on the planet. The japanese influence is vastly overplayed.
NO."
Why not?
?Mama Smurf summarized it best. Most of the article is just background so there's nothing exactly wrong with that but when Dvorak does actually get around to commentating and offering his own take it's all done very superficially in three statements:
MS executives are smarter - What's the measure of that exactly?"
Totally agreed.
"Sony is bloated - and MS isn't? Shouldn't that be the very definition of a company sitting on $56 billion in cash reserves that's been unable to leverage those to gain more significant foothold after spending three years in this marketplace already?"
Um.... sony aren't sitting on a 56 million reserve though are they? i don't think the two companies are even comparible in that term. Lets be in NO DOUBT , if MS wanted to take the market agressively, they could. If they did, then they would royally SUCK. Competition is the champion of the gamer, and one dominate company (Sony or Ms, or hell, lets through Nintendo in there for a laugh
) would suck ass.Also , the bloated comment may be in relation to revenue vs profit. Sony's revenue has been going up and up and up, while profits are going down... so Bloated in Sonys case i think hints at the fact that they are getting bogged down with R+D or whatever to the extent that is reducing them to a "break-even" only company.
"MS has avoided corporate meddling - so then exactly why has the Xbox languished in distant second or third and seen the departure of key guiding figures like Bach and Fries?"
a distant second? at worst they are, what?, 100,000 behind what is considered the number 1 gaming company in the world. Having come in with zero pedigree, i'd say that's a fair achievement.
TheGreenGiant
Banned
DCharlie said:
I didn't know PsOne/n64 were western machines then.
This article, or whatever it is, is just stabbing at the dark. Someone just trying to make a name for themself by saying something bold (Xenon doing better than PS3) so that if it comes true he can boast about how he said it. Pfft.
As it stands right now from what we know the only real advantage Microsoft will have is a headstart and of course their money. They can buy all the perceptive value to make them *look* like they're right behind Sony, but in reality they're only slightly ahead of Nintendo, WAY behind Sony and losing tons of cash just to do it. Then take into account they'll lose some of the big draws/advantages they had this generation (power edge, HD, etc.) as well as other other problems (less Japan support, no BC, cutting short the current generation, etc.) and it's not looking as hopeful as X-BOX is now. Then there's investors to worry about so intead of wasting money to buy their way into a false 2ND place, they'll have to make a more profitable system (and it's showing with the GAMECUBE-like approach to the Xenon's hardware architecture) to keep them happy. Don't get me wrong, the head start *could* prove to be a good approach along with some of their plans, but, right now, I just don't see it.
Oh yeah and don't think Sony & Nintendo will sit by and let Xenon march in and take too much marketshare before they retaliate.
As it stands right now from what we know the only real advantage Microsoft will have is a headstart and of course their money. They can buy all the perceptive value to make them *look* like they're right behind Sony, but in reality they're only slightly ahead of Nintendo, WAY behind Sony and losing tons of cash just to do it. Then take into account they'll lose some of the big draws/advantages they had this generation (power edge, HD, etc.) as well as other other problems (less Japan support, no BC, cutting short the current generation, etc.) and it's not looking as hopeful as X-BOX is now. Then there's investors to worry about so intead of wasting money to buy their way into a false 2ND place, they'll have to make a more profitable system (and it's showing with the GAMECUBE-like approach to the Xenon's hardware architecture) to keep them happy. Don't get me wrong, the head start *could* prove to be a good approach along with some of their plans, but, right now, I just don't see it.
Oh yeah and don't think Sony & Nintendo will sit by and let Xenon march in and take too much marketshare before they retaliate.
Similar threads
- Locked