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[DCharlie]

"you are making whole sale associations here - they IDENTIFY with the PS2.
so by your logic; why the fuck did gaming even take off with the NES in the first place. It was a EASTERN machine."

lets back up here - you were saying that people IDENTIFY with the PS2. How is that exactly?

Why don't gamers identify with an Atari machine?
with the C64?
with the spectrum?

it maybe slightly euro centric, but i don't see how your retort responds to my initial questioning of why people think people identify with the PS2. Identify is a pretty strong word.

 

[Duckhuntdog]

After reading DCharlies comments, I would have to say he is on the ball. Japan's influence is really shrinking. I mean hardly anyone copies from them anymore. Everyone is copying GTA though.

I said before to someone that Nintendo should focus squarely on regain marketshare and placement in the US and Europe. Once that is shored up, then they can turn their attention to trying to save Japan.

But trying to save Japan first and ignore the US and Europe is a recipe for last place , if not leaving console hardware.

 

[Duckhuntdog]

Ha, until Nintendo posts actual losses (not currency-related financial situations), I don't think you can even put them in a position where one could see them as going 3rd party.

Even then, the GCN has totally outdone the SegaCD, 32x, Saturn, and Dreamcast, and might be more popular then the Genesis when all is said and done. If SEGA lasted that long while posting losses and going into debt, Nintendo can definitely last quite a bit longer while posting minimal profits (even though currently they're doing better than Sony/Microsoft in the games sector).

Nintendo can survive with 20-30% of the market because of the excellent margins that it gets from games and sales of accessories.

If Revolution is 1/2 as popular as GCN, Nintendo would still be drowning in profits.

Nintendo is losing marketshare somewhat, but I don't think it cares, because the dwindling profits still have a ways to go. 3rd party support is still going to be strong from EA, Activision and the major ones. Rockstar is the only major 3rd party still dissing Nintendo.

Do you think the Nintendo stockholders are going to sit there and be happy with ever dwindling profits? I don't think so.

Also Nintendo is really being propped up by the GBA. Should PSP make a good dent... that's one less money stream Nintendo has to hide their faltering home console system profits.

 

[Mrbob]

As far as success goes, I think EA and Sony go hand in hand.

EA is successful on Xbox too, no doubt. But their ratio of success is much greater on PS2 than it is on Xbox. Take Madden for example. It sold over 1.5 million copies on PS2 while ESPN Football 2K5 sold 450K. On Xbox Madden Sold 500K while ESPN sold 300K. While successful, EA doesn't have the same type of strangledhold on the Xbox market as they do with the PS2 market. I wonder myself how much EA would like a change of the guard in the next gen from Sony to MS. MS gains more market share, EA sales go down? Could be the case.

 

[DCharlie]

"MS gains more market share, EA sales go down? Could be the case."

why do you say that though? given that console sales next gen start at zero, with the XB2 starting first, then that's one clear advantage.

the evidence you give regarding sales - 500K XB vs 1,5 mill PS2 - how is the userbase comparison? i'd expect that ps2 is more than 3:1 in the US vs the Xb right?

 

[sonycowboy]

This article, or whatever it is, is just stabbing at the dark. Someone just trying to make a name for themself by saying something bold (Xenon doing better than PS3) so that if it comes true he can boast about how he said it. Pfft.

LOL. He may not be in the know as far as the VG industry goes, but given that he's written thousands upon thousands of articles (PCWorld, MacWorld, Time, etc) , plus dozens of books, I doubt he's doing this to make a name for himself or lay claim to prediciting the outcome. If your going to call someone clueless, you really should have a clue about the person yourself.

 

[sonycowboy]

the evidence you give regarding sales - 500K XB vs 1,5 mill PS2 - how is the userbase comparison? i'd expect that ps2 is more than 3:1 in the US vs the Xb right?

24.something million vs 9.something million. It's 2.5 to 1

 

[Mrbob]

I'm talking more from a competition standpoint with other game makers.

For example, Madden crushed ESPN in sales overall on PS2, even at its discounted price.

On Xbox it's a much closer battle. Madden outsold ESPN (Which is in its 2nd month of sales) 500K to 300K, but overall ESPN is actually ahead of Madden on Xbox (ESPN sold 385K in its first month on Xbox). Whereas on PS2 Madden is gaining a commanding lead.

 

[P90]

John Dvorak knows technology, period.

Technology is not business. He is commenting on business.

 

[sonycowboy]

Mama Smurf summarized it best. Most of the article is just background so there's nothing exactly wrong with that but when Dvorak does actually get around to commentating and offering his own take it's all done very superficially in three statements:

MS executives are smarter - What's the measure of that exactly?

Sony is bloated - and MS isn't? Shouldn't that be the very definition of a company sitting on $56 billion in cash reserves that's been unable to leverage those to gain more significant foothold after spending three years in this marketplace already?

MS has avoided corporate meddling - so then exactly why has the Xbox languished in distant second or third and seen the departure of key guiding figures like Bach and Fries?

Bingo. What's wrong with the commentary is that the dude doesn't give any substantive reasons for his conclusions.

For the 1st 80% of the commentary he details the current state (incorrectly) and then in the last 3 paragraphs he gives some macroecononmic reasons for why Microsoft will win. He doesn't mention any games, any features, any third party relations, any understanding of the hardware cycle, any knowledge of XNA or the Cell.

He seems to base his entire argument solely on the basis of Microsoft's "Bulldog" tactics, their ton of money, and Sony having a "lack of focus" because of their diversified corporation.

His comments

Simply put, the people at Microsoft are smarter, especially the executives. The X-Box 2 should be at least as jazzy as the Sony offering, and Microsoft now looks like it's serious about a fight to the death. With over billions in cash in its coffers and a minimum of distractions, Microsoft also looks as if it can focus more on the X-Box than Sony.

Sony looks bloated, has to run a music business, a film business, a consumer electronics business, a broadcast gear business and on and on. If the company was smart it would sell off half of its agglomeration of disjointed interests.

On top of all this, the X-Box business looks as if it has avoided the kind of ruinous corporate meddling so common at Microsoft -- the kind of second-guessing that forever plagued the MSN project, for example. I'm putting Microsoft on top of this heap by 2007.

Those last 3 paragraphs are completely ludicrous. I think that each and every sentence has either ridiculous assumptions that are, in no way, factual or they're just completely wrong.

Since you asked what was wrong with the article

Now, the discussion we've had here has given reasons for both sides as to how the next gen could play out, and there's almost no doubt that Microsoft will do better, thus Sony will do worse (marketshare wise). However, his commentary was merely the jumping off point as he gave absolutely no insight or understanding into the subject.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

I see some misconceptions:

-X-BOX is not "right behind" PS2 nor is it "way ahead" of GAMECUBE in any way

-the Playstation brand *is* video games and will continue to be until Sony makes mistakes and someone capitalizes on them

-image seems to mean alot in pissing contests and on message boards, but in reality, it doesn't mean much

-Nintendo is STILL making money so why should their perceived value suddenly be so bad when they're still very profitable?

-if you think investor's are so displeased with Nintendo's profits then let's ask MS investor's what they think about the unprofitable X-BOX shall we?

-just 'cos western gamers prefer western games and PC ports doesn't make Japanese games worthless now...this misconception seems to have more to do with X-BOX fans downplaying Japanese influence JUST 'cos Xenon will likely have the weakest Japanese support

-if you think people are just gonna be all fine & dandy with MS taking away BC, the HD, the power edge, features and cut short the current generation just so Xenon can have a nice head start...you're wrong

-if you think Nintendo will ignore the competition and ignore how they hurt themselves and you think that the "Revolution" will be pastel colored, in the shape of a toy and will be hendered into obscurity 'cos of some "gimmicky" feature...you're wrong

-if you think the GAMECUBE is currently dead...you're wrong

-EA is going to support all three...this misconception that suddenly they're going to "side" with MS is rediculous...no...they're not "siding" with anyone, it's just that Xenon is coming out first so they're excited about it first, der

-if you think that having Madden on Xenon is going to "turn the tide" against the Playstation brand then you're poorly mistake, Playstation fans KNOW that Madden will be on PS3 too...and to boot it'll be the better version as PS3 will be the better hardware

 

[puck1337]

Technology is not business. He is commenting on business.

Okay, so he knows the business of technology. He may have glossed over a few things, but the fact is that he's highly respected and he does have insight into the industry and its players. Probably a lot more than most people on this board. An opinion on this subject bears a lot more credibility than if it came from any of the usual suspects, regardless of whether he writes a 10000 word thesis each time he needs to make a point.

 

[DarienA]

I'd guess it's based on sales data that shows Japanese games have accounted for less of a global percentage than western games this generation? Or at least, that their percentage of the global total of game sales has decreased...

I'd be curious to see those stats shown in terms of genre's. I'm not sure if it's due to diminishing influence, or that Japanese developers are dropping genre's that in the US aren't(old shool shooters as an example), selling anymore. I'm just wondering if it's a cyclic thing. This generation we're seeing a rise in developers in the West and in Europe, other countries, etc... many of those developers however have looked to Japan for ideas, inspiration, etc... to think that Japan is simply going to wink out tomorrow in terms of influence IMO... that's not gonna happen.

 

[djtiesto]

After reading DCharlies comments, I would have to say he is on the ball. Japan's influence is really shrinking. I mean hardly anyone copies from them anymore. Everyone is copying GTA though.

I said before to someone that Nintendo should focus squarely on regain marketshare and placement in the US and Europe. Once that is shored up, then they can turn their attention to trying to save Japan.

But trying to save Japan first and ignore the US and Europe is a recipe for last place , if not leaving console hardware.

Lord of the Rings:The Third Age, The Red Star, Alien Hominid, the Jak games, the Ratchet and Clank games, and others beg to differ. The GTA thing is just a fad that will die out in 2 or 3 years, just like you don't see that many extreme sports games anymore.

 

[Duckhuntdog]

Lord of the Rings:The Third Age, The Red Star, Alien Hominid, the Jak games, the Ratchet and Clank games, and others beg to differ. The GTA thing is just a fad that will die out in 2 or 3 years, just like you don't see that many extreme sports games anymore.

Don't get me wrong, I too think GTA is a fad. But can we seriously credit Nintendo for creating platformers. There were platformers on the 2600. Sure they refined and got it down to a near science. But I think saying they did it all, wouldn't be fair.

 

[DarienA]

Don't get me wrong, I too think GTA is a fad. But can we seriously credit Nintendo for creating platformers. There were platformers on the 2600. Sure they refined and got it down to a near science. But I think saying they did it all, wouldn't be fair.

I don't care what anyone says Jumping Flash > Mario 64 dammit.

 

[Kai Dracon]

Even if the guy is a professional, it doesn't automatically make his opinion inherently more trustworthy than a forum dude - particularly when he just puts out what seem to be popular perceptions as keen projections. I chuckled at the Microsoft will win because they are teh smartest psychology - yes, I'm sure that all of Microsoft's success to date has been entirely due to one thing only: they are the smartest people in technology. Their business practices, dodgy activities, and massive screwups of their competition have nothing to do with it.

Here's something to think on. The launch for Playstation 2 demonstrated that the PS brand literally sells itself. Sony didn't even deliver on their own hype and it still was a monster - their mindshare and fans did all the work for them. In my view, for the PS brand to tank so badly is going to take not just any one, but an entire chain of culmulative screwups on Sony's part in addition to M$ being strong. M$ is not just going to cruise in with their magically superior business tactics and handily steal the whole pie from Sony.

 

[Catchpenny]

This generation we're seeing a rise in developers in the West and in Europe, other countries, etc...

Some of this should be attributed to the decline of PC gaming. Not saying that PC gaming is dead, but you are seeing more western companies focusing on consoles first. A lot of talent that we never saw on consoles in years past is there now.

I'm just wondering if it's a cyclic thing.

Me too. In five to ten years it wouldn't shock me at all if the pendulum swings back in favor of Japan a bit. Some people around here seem to think the Japanese market will continue shrinking and the American market will continue growing. That's not going to happen.

 

[Joe]

THE XBOX WINS THE PENNANT! THE XBOX WINS THE PENNANT!

DOWN GOES SONY! DOWN GOES SONY! DOWN GOES SONY!

 

[Joe]

and i think the right word for GTA is "phenomenon".

 

[kaching]

Um.... sony aren't sitting on a 56 million reserve though are they? i don't think the two companies are even comparible in that term.

I didn't say they were. I said both companies were bloated, albeit in different ways. Sony because they currently have diverse enterprises that they don't manage as effectively or leverage as synergistically as they could and MS because they're sitting on a wad of money that's doing nothing significant to propel them into a more dominant position. Bloat is a measure of your resources and how much goes to waste or languishes.

Lets be in NO DOUBT , if MS wanted to take the market agressively, they could. If they did, then they would royally SUCK. Competition is the champion of the gamer, and one dominate company (Sony or Ms, or hell, lets through Nintendo in there for a laugh ) would suck ass.

First of all, are you suggesting that MS is deliberately holding back from taking a larger piece of the console market?

Second, where did I say anything about MS dominating the market with their cash reserves? How about they first demonstrate they can at least get to more equal footing with the market leader, split the marketplace roughly 50/50? "more significant foothold" is what I said, not dominate the marketplace.

a distant second? at worst they are, what?, 100,000 behind what is considered the number 1 gaming company in the world. Having come in with zero pedigree, i'd say that's a fair achievement.

I assume you mean Nintendo? I see this rhetoric used frequently and I always find it pretty hollow. This achievement would have been impressive if it had been done two generations ago before Nintendo's console marketshare started to drop dramatically in the face of two separate competitors who each mounted a more successful foray into that market than MS has. Being the third to take a successful swipe at already heavily reduced marketshare is not an accomplishment. Now, if MS had mounted a successful foray into the handheld gaming market and grab a significant amount of marketshare away from Nintendo, THAT would be an achievement.

And MS didn't have a "zero pedigree". Their PC gaming experience does count for something - a number of notable franchises with the potential to be leveraged in the console space and the stewardship of DirectX as a game development API that has gained extensive following in development circles are by no means "zero pedigree".

 

[DDayton]

I think I'll second the motion for game consoles to become standardized within two more iterations.

-How- is another thing entirely.

 

[Alcibiades]

"I assume you mean Nintendo? I see this rhetoric used frequently and I always find it pretty hollow. This achievement would have been impressive if it had been done two generations ago before Nintendo's console marketshare started to drop dramatically in the face of two separate competitors who each mounted a more successful foray into that market than MS has. Being the third to take a successful swipe at already heavily reduced marketshare is not an accomplishment. Now, if MS had mounted a successful foray into the handheld gaming market and grab a significant amount of marketshare away from Nintendo, THAT would be an achievement."

Heck, I'd be impressed if Microsoft had done this breakin even or losing a good billion at the most, but when you overwhelmingly throw money and resources for extended periods of time, and finally tie Nintendo, I don't consider that to be great executive prowess at all. At some point, all that money was going to start to make a difference.

Nintendo was making money at $200, estimates say Microsoft was losing $150 @ the $300 price point (and a good $200-250 loss per console when it dropped in price a few days later). Those are significant differences. I mean, if you throw enough money at any market, you are bound to start making inroads at some point, and Microsoft was patient enough for this to start happening.

They've made some great achievements, it just hasn't been all that impressive how they made them. When it takes a 40 man army to beat a 40 man army, well it's respectable, when it takes a 200 man army to match what another 40 man army is doing, sure it's achieved something, it's just not all that impressive.

 

[pilonv1]

if fanboys opinion = sales, then ICO and REZ would have sold millions of copies. Fanboy opinon does not directly correlate to anything unfortunately.

System fanboyism is the scourge of humanity, it's the confirmation that people are retards.

This along with the "emotional attachment to a console" comment from Project Midway are the most intelligent things I've read here in ages.

 

[DCharlie]

"I didn't say they were. I said both companies were bloated, albeit in different ways. Sony because they currently have diverse enterprises that they don't manage as effectively or leverage as synergistically as they could and MS because they're sitting on a wad of money that's doing nothing significant to propel them into a more dominant position. Bloat is a measure of your resources and how much goes to waste or languishes."

ah, i get you.

"First of all, are you suggesting that MS is deliberately holding back from taking a larger piece of the console market?"

No - i don't think they are holding back. I'm suggesting that if they really wanted to do it, they could. It would be

"Second, where did I say anything about MS dominating the market with their cash reserves? How about they first demonstrate they can at least get to more equal footing with the market leader, split the marketplace roughly 50/50? "more significant foothold" is what I said, not dominate the marketplace."

Apologies - my reading comprehension was slightly stunted due to large levels of toxicats (blushes at Sega Rally thread).

"I assume you mean Nintendo? I see this rhetoric used frequently and I always find it pretty hollow. This achievement would have been impressive if it had been done two generations ago before Nintendo's console marketshare started to drop dramatically in the face of two separate competitors who each mounted a more successful foray into that market than MS has. Being the third to take a successful swipe at already heavily reduced marketshare is not an accomplishment. Now, if MS had mounted a successful foray into the handheld gaming market and grab a significant amount of marketshare away from Nintendo, THAT would be an achievement."

i disagree. Given the expectation that MS would fail miserably (i guffawed when i saw they were entering the gaming market too), i still think it's an achievement. From non-placed into second (or a close third) against a machine with IP such as Zelda, Mario, etc took some doing - especially when you look at some of the CRAP on the Xbox!

"And MS didn't have a "zero pedigree". Their PC gaming experience does count for something - a number of notable franchises with the potential to be leveraged in the console space and the stewardship of DirectX as a game development API that has gained extensive following in development circles are by no means "zero pedigree"."

Perhaps not zero, but surely you'd agree the PC gaming world is a far different beast from marketing, producing, etc a games console (albeit a very PC-y one)?

 

[TheGreenGiant]

just wanted to agree with DrGakman about a lot of what he said

and

Jumping Jack Flash is gay poodle shit.

 

[Sho Nuff]

John Dvorak > You
John Dvorak > Me

 

[GDGF]

I can't believe JCD wrote this. I always pegged him as being quite a bit smarter than this. He's always had slightly fanboyish tendencies, though (not that I can talk...)


Hell, bodes well for me. Maybe I can get a job writing in the biz one of these days.

 

[Pug]

My take on it, well I just like playing games, couldn't give a flying frig who's names on box thingy that the disc goes in.

 

[Teddman]

Back at the outset of this generation, hardly anyone on the forums thought Xbox would do this well, certainly not topping the GameCube worldwide. If there had been a commentary column to that effect in early 2001, predicting things to turn out as they have by now in 2004, there'd have been a thread full of dispute just like this one here.

I can remember an article Forbes.com posted that prompted a HUGE thread at the time, and even a story from IGNCube laughing at how ridiculous it was. And I was one of the posters doing just that.

Guess what? Forbes turned out to be right.

My point is, don't automatically think that because you're a knowledgeable video game fan and industry observer, you know more than professional business and technology market analysts.

For reference:

Forbes.com "Nintendo's Game May Be Over" Marcella Bernhard, Forbes.com, 04.02.01, 4:25 PM ET

NEW YORK - Kids may love Zelda and Mario, but that won't be enough to keep Nintendo out of last place in a three-way battle to dominate the $6.5 billion videogame market. Though Nintendo is sure to remain the videogame maker of choice for the elementary school set, Microsoft and Sony will split the spoils from the growing--and more lucrative--population of adult gamers.

He was right.

IGNCube: Forbes Makes an Ass of Itself April 05, 2001

They were wrong.

 

[Joe]

hahahaha teddman just laid the smack down. i love it.

 

[Sho Nuff]

IGN said (on the previous, accurate Forbes article):

Its article was so laced with inaccuracies and personal opinion that it was borderline slanderous. We expect more from such a leading publication than garbage like this, and frankly, every Nintendo enthusiast should be offended by the ignorance repeatedly demonstrated by the words of the author.

To which I reply in the form of a clever image macro:

 

[JackFrost2012]

Forbes is win!

 

[Baron Aloha]

If everyone had that sort of opportunity, you'd see Nabisco making games.

:lol

 

[open_mouth_]

Back at the outset of this generation, hardly anyone on the forums thought Xbox would do this well, certainly not topping the GameCube worldwide. If there had been a commentary column to that effect in early 2001, predicting things to turn out as they have by now in 2004, there'd have been a thread full of dispute just like this one here.

I can remember an article Forbes.com posted that prompted a HUGE thread at the time, and even a story from IGNCube laughing at how ridiculous it was. And I was one of the posters doing just that.

Guess what? Forbes turned out to be right.

My point is, don't automatically think that because you're a knowledgeable video game fan and industry observer, you know more than professional business and technology market analysts.

For reference:

Forbes.com "Nintendo's Game May Be Over" Marcella Bernhard, Forbes.com, 04.02.01, 4:25 PM ET
He was right.

IGNCube: Forbes Makes an Ass of Itself April 05, 2001

They were wrong.

:lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol :lol

OMG, That IGNCube article is absolute comedy gold. So damn OWNED.

 

[disabledHeliocentric]

You know, Sony slaps their name on a consumer electronics item and it's automatically laced with sex. You put the Microsoft name on something and it's like that girl everybody nick-named rigormortis in high school-- sure, you'd let her do your homework for you, but you'd never take her out or show her off to friends.
Sony doesn't have to be smarter with hardware, they just have to be sexier.
The reason for this is because the software developers working for Sony on a largely exclusive basis by and large ARE smarter than those working for Microsoft.

 

[Cubsfan23]

I believe this commentary

 

[cleanup]

Microsoft selling the new xbox 2 at a price that sony will not be able to match.

 

[DrGAKMAN]

i disagree. Given the expectation that MS would fail miserably (i guffawed when i saw they were entering the gaming market too), i still think it's an achievement. From non-placed into second (or a close third) against a machine with IP such as Zelda, Mario, etc took some doing - especially when you look at some of the CRAP on the Xbox!

This is another misconception...there were just as many proponents of the X-BOX as there were naysayers before launch. The original lineup of anti-X-BOX naysayers were basically Nintendo fans like myself or the occassional guy who was against the Microsoft "world domination plan". But just as much there were tons of PC gamers who could finally stand up and say PC gaming was better than console gaming as well as alot of people who got burnt on DreamCast who looked at Microsoft as a company who wouldn't abandon their system 'cos they have so much money. As far as gamers go, this is how it was before either console was even officially unveiled.

If you're talking about the press then you would be wrong there too, 'cos while *some* reports were going out on a limb and saying MS would have a hard time being the newcomer most reporters were pegging X-BOX as second place already and even to this day they ignore Nintendo's efforts...why...'cos MS is big and has LOTS of money, power & influence to sorta buy that mindshare. Add to the mix that mainstream press veiwed Nintendo as old, washed up and the next Sega (the plug being pulled on DC hurt Nintendo alot 'cos it gave the impression that Nintendo was next). If you're talking retailers then I'd disagree there too...Microsoft (due to their size and this being their first time in) was WAY more willing to give kickbacks than Nintendo was, plus alot of retailers disliked the N64 so Nintendo's next system really seemed "less than" MS's first time effort. Then if you're talking about publishers/developers who are they gonna side with...the guy with tons of cash willing to spend spend spend to make a name for themselves or the guy who's past record (despite him trying to change his ways) left a bad taste in their mouth.

Then project "Dolphin" was unveiled as the GAMECUBE. Really a marvel...too bad people couldn't look past it's odd shell design and lack of DVD. Nintendo really needed to make a serious looking machine, but instead most people saw a toy...Nintendo fans included. Nintendo sort of ignored MS as any sort of threat and tailor made the GAMECUBE for the Japanese audience...the problem with this is, while it helped for gaining footing in the homeland, it hurt their already hurting image in the west. Still some Nintendo fans stayed loyal and vowed to get one at launch and Nintendo was to make some big announcements with top Japanese third parties to stab at PS2, but Sony sorta thwarted these efforts.

Then, the X-BOX was unveiled...more powerful, more features and most importantly...more serious. I know alot of Nintendo "fans" who pretty much switched alegiance to MS 'cos they were disappointed with the GAMECUBE unveiling. MS unveiled the X-BOX in the right way and at the right time. This coupled with the previous DC burn victims, PC gamers who were already onboard the MS bandwagon then add the press, retailer & publisher support and it's a wonder that with all the money MS poured into this project they haven't destroyed Nintendo already. Then MS's calculated aims at being the "new N64" for Tom Clansey games, FPS's, Star Wars games and of course, aquiring RARE then it's no wonder alot of Nintendo fans switched alegiance.

But some Nintendo fans stayed loyal and I would say they would have to be VERY loyal at this point 'cos of everything that we went through. You say that Nintendo having the Mario & Zelda IP's should somehow instantly trump X-BOX? But let's look at what Nintendo did with these IP's. Mario wasn't even a launch title...This, together with the toylike GAMECUBE design made Nintendo a limping "old-timer" to most when it finally came out. Having no Mario at launch was shooting themselves in the right foot, but unveiling the cel-shaded Zelda was a shot to the left foot. Nintendo hurt themselves more than Microsoft did.

Hopefully next generation they'll realize that they have TWO competitor's now and that they need to make a serious machine instead of a silly toy, they also have to have a Mario at launch and give themselves a more serious presence with the press, retailers and publishers/developers, they also most use ALL of their franchises the right way, in moderation and at the right times, unlike this generation. MS (and the rest of this industry) is probably expecting Nintendo to keep shooting themselves in the foot, but I think Nintendo is waking up to their own mistakes...MS spent alot of money to barely "beat" a limping/wounded Nintendo, but Nintendo is showing signs of wising up to their mistakes.

 

[Sho Nuff]

but Nintendo is showing signs of wising up to their mistakes.

People always say this and it never happens.

Yes, third parties STILL get totally boned on Gamecube licensing. It still costs less per SKU to do a PS2 or Xbox game than a GC one.

 

[dog$]

DreamCast

NeO*GeO

GAMECUBE

Why do you insist on spelling console names in the most asinine way possible?

 

[DrGAKMAN]

I've heard lot's of Nintendo higher ups admit mistakes in recent years. This is not the same Yamauchi Nintendo. He ignored and scoffed at X-BOX every chance he got and that was probably one of the biggest problem with GAMECUBE...it had a Japanese aim to compete with PS2 while ignoring what was preventing them from doing so...the X-BOX. Then they bring in Reggie who admits they DO have competition...in the past they would say they didn't. Iwata is doing more research into the shell design of the "Revolution"...to me, this says they realize that the GAMECUBE's design turned alot of people off and overall effected their image in a negative way so they want to do it right next time. They've totally beefed up their advertising...the early ads were horrid, the newer ads are loads better. Miyamoto gave up his childhood vision of Zelda and gave people what they REALLY want from the Zelda franchise. These are just off the top of my head examples.

Oh yeah, and as far as we know Nintendo NOW charges just as much as the competition does in regards to licencing. And I seriously doubt this completly henders Nintendo's relationship with 3RD parties...I would say it's more about 3RD parties just not giving a rat's ass about Nintendo 'cos no one takes GAMECUBE seriously inside or outside of the industry...no amount of lowering fee's is going to fix that kind of problem.

 

[kaching]

Teddman, that was a fascinating history lesson, but the Forbes.com article was simply better analysis of the situation at the time than Dvorak's commentary is now.

 

[DSN2K]

Kids dont play Nintendo, they play Playstation and GTA.

 

[dem]

Kids dont play Nintendo, they play Playstation and GTA.

Yeah.. and we know that never changes.


Heh.. I remember when playstation was released everyone thought it sounded like some kind of toddler toy.

 

[Ignatz Mouse]

Regardless of the specifics he used to back them up, Dvorak has a point. That point-- MS is backing the Xbox hard and has made a lot of inroads, and he thinks they'll catch up and win next gen.

He may be right. I think it's way too hard to tell, and I think he gives MS some credit they don't deserve, but Sony is in danger of losing their lead, and their management doesn't seem to haev the edge they used to.

Of course, people said the same thing about Palm and PocketPC-- and for a while, it looked like they were right. But then MS lost it, Palm got its groove back and Palms rule the world all over again.

It can go either way. Too hard to predict. but if Xbox does take over, it'll probably be for the reasons outlined here.

 

[Joe]

well this thread came to a screeching halt.

 

[Senretsu]

This John C. Dvorak guy sounds familiar, isn't he the guy who used to host the (cancelled a couple years ago) Silicon Spin show on Techtv. I remember that show, he tried to make it the O'reilly factor or Crossfire for tech. I remember one episode where they were debating "which is better, computer games or console games" haha! They need to do that again.

 

[P90]

If Dvorak's predictions are so astute, then explain this:

MacIntel PC domination

And from reading his articles, he knows much more about computing than consoles...

 

[Flatbread]

I assume you mean Nintendo? I see this rhetoric used frequently and I always find it pretty hollow. This achievement would have been impressive if it had been done two generations ago before Nintendo's console marketshare started to drop dramatically in the face of two separate competitors who each mounted a more successful foray into that market than MS has. Being the third to take a successful swipe at already heavily reduced marketshare is not an accomplishment. Now, if MS had mounted a successful foray into the handheld gaming market and grab a significant amount of marketshare away from Nintendo, THAT would be an achievement.

And MS didn't have a "zero pedigree". Their PC gaming experience does count for something - a number of notable franchises with the potential to be leveraged in the console space and the stewardship of DirectX as a game development API that has gained extensive following in development circles are by no means "zero pedigree".

I think your minimizing what MS has acheived this generation. First thing to note is that the video game industry is still very young, and each generation of consoles has its own characteristics that makes comparisons not applicable in many respects. Some generations had 2 major consoles competing, like super nintendo vs genesis, ps1 vs n64, atari vs intellivision. When nintendo completely revived the home console video game industry in the late 80's there were no major players. This is the first generation where there were 3 main players, making market share gains all the more tight.

In your analysis you would be more impressed with MS if they acheived marketshare from the handheld market from nintendo, which I think would have been easier for them to do since they would only have 1 entreanched competitor, as opposed to the 2 they had to deal with this generation.

When MS launched they had 0 console game franchises, and really they still have very few, the only big time franchises they have are halo , PGR and Mechassault. They have smartened up and realized what sony did a long time ago, and what nintendo has failed at, its 3rd party support, getting as many games as you can on your system, the cream of the crop will rise and you will have huge hits on your machine.

If youre paying attention to the US sales, MS is pulling away from nintendo big time this year, there sales for games and hardware are closer to sonys than nintendos, unlike the previous 2 years. If things continue the way they are, the video game industry will have 2 major players next generation, like previous ones and MS marketshare will rise accordingly.

Your comments about MS have no pedigree are correct, but they were pretty minimal compared to what there competitors had. MS did what they had to do, which is launch a machine that had one advantage, hardware. They got lucky, had a huge hit out of the gate and as far as games are concerned have mostly struck out in sales since then. When the machine was first announced its likelihood of succeeding like it has(where there is huge hype for xbox2) was probably less then 50-50. Although much remains left, the big winner this generation was sony, ms gets the best newcomer, and nintendo is scratching its head.