That was not his point. His point wasn’t just that the unvaccinated may contribute to mutation more than the vaccinated. His point was that the vaccinated were not contributing to mutation at all, which is simply false based on all available knowledge of the virus. It is clearly spreading among the vaccinated at some level, albeit less efficiently.
This virus is here to stay. Forever. The sooner we come to grips with that, the better we will all be. Covid is a part of life now. And that’s ok.
I don't see where RoboFu says or implies that. I see only posts from them saying that the unvaccinated are fueling mutations. If you can point out the post that they do, that would be appreciated.
It is true the virus is likely here to stay but it doesn't mean we can't do more to stop it, as is the case with other viruses in our history.
1. We actually don't have any hard evidence that it is "harder" for the vaccinated to become infected. Please share if you do.
2. What's your logic that it would it be likely that an unvaccinated person would be the source of a mutation that is better at infecting the vaccinated? There is precedent for antibody-dependent enhancement and many have been sounding the alarm about it in regards to trying to vaccinate your way out of an ongoing full blown pandemic, although others think it's less likely to occur with a coronaviruses.
1. What do you mean? We have data for breakthrough cases showing how many people did get sick from COVID despite the vaccine. I don't know if this qualifies as hard evidence to you, it does give us an idea of how effective it is, especially when comparing it to infection rates amongst populations that aren't vaccinated. If we're not talking about COVID specifically, we have viruses that have been nearly or already eradicated due to vaccinations. Polio worldwide and Measles in the US are examples of how effective vaccinations are at preventing infections. Granted, I think infection implies getting sick and being able to spread the disease in this case so if that's not the definition we're working under, it might look a little different.
If you're talking about the brass tacks of the actual interaction between created antibodies with viruses and how much protection it provides, I don't have anything on hand for that. I don't even know if we can access to something like that on a general web search.
2. The more chances a virus has to mutate, the better chance a random mutation or multiple mutations piled up can appear that makes it better at infecting a vaccinated person. An individual vaccinated against a certain type of virus generally doesn't get sick from it and thus doesn't produce enough to get others sick. No replications means no copy errors. Unvaccinated individuals don't have that protection so they're a more fertile ground for mutations to occur they not protection against it.
While not COVID, there was a situation with Polio similar to this.
Variant was responsible for a deadly outbreak but is stopped by fresh, oral immunization.
www.nature.com
Basic gist of it was they found an outbreak of Polio in 2014 of 445 people amongst unvaccinated people but here's the interesting bit.
To investigate, Christian Drosten, a virologist at the University of Bonn Medical Centre in Germany, together with an international team of researchers, sequenced the virus strain that caused the outbreak. They found a never-before-seen combination of two mutations, both in the proteins of the strain's 'coat', which make it harder for antibodies to stick to the virus. “It’s a virus that can escape the usual level of population immunity that we have,” says Drosten.
Fresh immunity
The team also tested blood samples from volunteers in neighbouring Gabon, where part of the research team is based, as well as from German medical students who had all been vaccinated. Their antibodies were less potent against the Congo strain than against the strain used in the vaccine. The researchers say that 15–29% of the German students would have been essentially unprotected from the 2010 virus.
The good news is that the strain will not cause problems for someone who is newly vaccinated with the oral vaccine. “Fresh immunity caused by a fresh re-vaccination will stop it,” says Drosten.
Remember that Polio is near eradicated in a lot of places but a population of unvaccinated folks caused two mutations like this.
That's not to say that there couldn't be a mutation in vaccinated populations but those breakthrough cases are much fewer in number so there's far fewer chances for it to replicate and then pass it on. There's just more chance for it to go nuts in an unprotected population. If anything, a likely scenario is that some variant appears in the unvaccinated population that can make headway on vaccinated groups then that further mutates from there.
I think this is a slight misunderstanding. All organisms evolve by random mutation. Which is an error in copying the genome. Most mutations are not useful and thus die off. However some are useful, and these stand a higher chance of surviving and passing on the new (mutated) genome. "Biological pressures" are the environment the organism is in. If it's very hostile and survival chances are slim, the only survivors (if any) will be lean & mean. If the environment is hospitable, just about everyone survives, not just badass MF's. The base mutation rate never changes though, there's always a small % chance a mutation will happen each consecutive generation.
When there's a ton of vaccinated people, overall number of mutations will drop dramatically (fewer new generations are born) BUT any especially virulent mutations will have an easier time becoming dominant.
When there's few vaccinated people, there's a lot more mutation and overall sickness and death, but (small upside) any ultra virulent version of the virus will have a tougher time getting a foothold (all of the hosts are already taken)
Unlike a lot of other organisms, viruses need hosts to reproduce. Since mutations occur in the copying of the genome, denying viruses the ability to reproduce removes chances it gets to mutate. More vaccinated people means it has a harder time taking root and replicating which lowers the chances of it spreading and mutating as a result. I don't know much about increases in virulence with vaccines but I'm mostly concerned about spread in any case
NYC
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