I guarantee Hope shift their vote to their second choice if they think a tie is plausible.
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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It
- Thread starter LaunchpadMcQ
- Start date
That is not so ideal case for me. The reason I think tallying to see which two people get the most votes is good is collective information, i.e. information from all should be good.
Deafulting to our second or third choice just so that we have someone with the most votes can make us biased.
If you're worried about a tie, just lynch the last guy who voted to form a tie. No way Despair pulls that stunt and no way Hope lets them live if they do.
I read the game more as a narrative than as posts, but fine let me go back and bring post to help illustrate why my suspicion on you.
Here is the thing, at first you attitude was completely happy-go-lucky, can-do yes we can, that I find, to be honest, I fine. I can buy it, and its fun and it goes with the game and your profile pic, as illustrated here:
Then, later on, when people starting calling you out you did try your best to keep your character going. Again, this is fine and respectable and this is not the reason why I am suspecting, is that your post lose some of the edge that they had at first, for example the use of emoticons, hard analysis. Here is the thing where you are mistaken, I am not suspecting you due to your lack of post (Because, lets be honest, even if real life gets in the way you are still one of the most active users), its because you actual posts started be less dynamic and more apologetic. This is the post you used to defend yourself right now.
So, to summarize, the reasoning for my suspicion of you is really just how you started talking more defensive in your posts, instead of holding your ground and keeping your cool. It looked to me that you have much to lose if you become a prime suspect, either because of a lynch or because you could become a target for despair. Granted, this is a really silly suspicion for me to have this early on the game, BUT it really jumped at me.
Of all the players, you have been the least consistent in your play style so far, in my opinion. But again, its mostly a hunch, but the only hunch I have so far regarding everyone, so I am not voting you either yet or maybe later on, but I am making a note of it.
Zippedpinhead
Member
I'm still unconvinced about a human becoming. My vote remains the same. I'll retread throughout tomorrow just to make sure .
Excellent! Finally something I can address! Firstly, if I am coming across as having a 'character' it is actually totally unintentional, with a few tiny exceptions like the very first sentence of my first post and the 'BOW DOWN'! joke. I guess I just talk like Sonia in real life too lol. So take this fact as you will.
Secondly, you say that my posts have lost some of the 'edge'. Let me ask you, what you do think of my Hagi vote?
Thirdly, I'm actually putting together a list of updated reads on people (with a twist) so I hope you all can see that I'm still actively engaged and keeping up with the latest shenanigans in this thread. So much happens when I'm at work that it's difficult to address every development (eg kingkitty, sawneeks vs TB vs Splinter vs Rest). It seems like Hope is pretty perceptive in general, so I don't think I HAVE to address every situation head on. But with my summary reads post everyone should get a better idea of my current thoughts. And what better time to get this out than a day before the deadline lol.
Would love to hear your thoughts once I post it.
What's going to change our mind? An investigatory role reveals another player is Despair? Then we get two consecutive days of scum kills! Anyone forcing a tie is scum and will be punished, duh. Anyway, I not only think there's a better way to prevent ties, the flaw in your voting scheme is apparent:
You just let everybody else off the hook even though the pressure is greatest in the last hours of the day. Having a primary for lynching distracts from the new information that readily comes out at twilight. Locking in votes is dumb.
No, someone who renders a tie does not need to be mafia. A person who wants no punishment should be able to vote so without having to tie a vote and be afraid (maybe eager) of getting lynched as a result.
We will still have LaunchpadMcQ's last tally and what everyone has said as permanent record on this thread, so we're certainly not letting anyone off the hook.
I say the following then. Since you and SalvaPot are the only two who are currently for no punishment, and it's likely that the mafia has voted someone to blend in, the rest of us who favored voting on Day 1 will select our two candidates each, but from the list of 21 people excluding you guys. That way, you are guaranteed to be safe, and we get our Day 1 lynch.
Wait wait wait, I think I'm missing something. Why do we want Makai and SalvaPot to be safe?
Haha, it's a good compromise. I do not see we can change Makai's mind in time, and I'd really like all of us to start thinking about the final vote for Day 1. Like Makai said, we can lynch them any other day.
sandalphon
Member
No one should get any guarantee to be safe. This is bad play.
If people want to vote No Punishment, let them. They know the consequences of doing so. As for avoiding a tie, that's just a risk we will have to take. I doubt it is likely, we have good, strong players that will probably be very active near the closing bell.
All righty. Normal vote then, I'm ok if we end up with a tie and no punishment as a result.
(I was really trying to waste mafia's time by introducing a new game to analyze and follow to blend in, but you just had to mess it up, Makai. Oh well.)
To be honest, I won´t call my position safe at all, I am actively going against the general consensus, that, from post one, was to lynch someone. If anything I think my no-lynch status gains attention to myself, I am sure a lot of your guys and gals are aware of. Playing it safe would be to bandwagon or blending our vote with someone else, my stance is going to make people pay more attention to what I have to say, of that I am aware. Its a fun position to be in, I hate hiding in the shadows and I really like to see the reactions to it, but what they mean is still not clear, its going to take some time to really get to start figuring out what is everyone trying to accomplish and where the game is going.
Point is, there are no safe moves here, everyone could be despair and we all should be well aware of it =).
Here are my reads on a few players. Others have been posting about stand-out players, I'm going to specifically mention players that I haven't had much interaction with, and yet stand out to me:
Crab - He certainly plays like he's Hope-aligned (I think SalvaPot's idea is stuck in my head now, can't be too trusting of anyone during Day 1). Would like to think he is Hope
A Human Becoming - I really can't say. I'm not convinced he's Hope (but at this point, who can be?). His post count is also in the realm that makes me nervous
Goshujinsama - strikes me as probable Hope. His latest reads post was detailed and useful
Pau - very few posts, would like to see more from her. I'm finding it hard to get a read on her, but she did vote for Makai whom I also find suspicious
Zippedpinhead - calls out Makai's posting content, which I too have been wary about. Too early to say, but leaning to Hope? I think?
*Splinter - I think he has the Hope interest at heart. Has been fairly vocal about his suspects, which I think is a good thing for Hope
CornBurrito - A bit clumsy at times but feels Hope-aligned
Good God, including my notes on the other players not mentioned here, it's just so hard to pin anyone. You are all simultaneously trustworthy AND scum in my eyes. It's just that some of you have a higher probability of being Hope. That's the only thing I can say.
Crab - He certainly plays like he's Hope-aligned (I think SalvaPot's idea is stuck in my head now, can't be too trusting of anyone during Day 1). Would like to think he is Hope
A Human Becoming - I really can't say. I'm not convinced he's Hope (but at this point, who can be?). His post count is also in the realm that makes me nervous
Goshujinsama - strikes me as probable Hope. His latest reads post was detailed and useful
Pau - very few posts, would like to see more from her. I'm finding it hard to get a read on her, but she did vote for Makai whom I also find suspicious
Zippedpinhead - calls out Makai's posting content, which I too have been wary about. Too early to say, but leaning to Hope? I think?
*Splinter - I think he has the Hope interest at heart. Has been fairly vocal about his suspects, which I think is a good thing for Hope
CornBurrito - A bit clumsy at times but feels Hope-aligned
Good God, including my notes on the other players not mentioned here, it's just so hard to pin anyone. You are all simultaneously trustworthy AND scum in my eyes. It's just that some of you have a higher probability of being Hope. That's the only thing I can say.
sandalphon
Member
I was leaning on voting on either you or Makai, but after that brief exchange with kgtrep, I am changing my mind. Your post here further reassures me that you are likely to have Hope alignment, in terms of your intentions. True, a No Punishment vote may be detrimental in terms of generating information, but as a player, you seem to faithfully believe that a No Punishment vote is the best choice for Hope for Day 1. Time will tell if you are right.
In the meanwhile, my vote goes to AbsolutBro.
Vote: AbsolutBro
As I have stated in my longer post, AbsolutBros only vote was against kingkitty, who was an easy target for the lynch. Later, he unvoted kingkitty, returning his voting state to Null. This is not helpful for Hope, particularly since we are running rather close to the close of Day 1.
Furthermore, I feel this player is under-performing, from the comments made by our fellow players, and I hope that this inactivity is not a ploy of some sort.
This will likely be my final post for Day 1. I am going away for a couple of days, but I should be back in time for Day 2.
this got buried but this won't work because we need to know the alignments of people to know good / bad votes, and the only way we find out alignments is lynching. Our job as town is to remove the people not contributing content or contributing bad content. Knowing for sure suspicious people's alignments helps us determine who has the right idea. There's no reason for the mafia to remove suspicious people if town isn't.
Enough already with the absolute statements.
If only Hope would vote first, that becomes a good thing for Despair to do.
If only Despair would force a tie, no Despair who's paying attention is likely to do that.
lol, I think you give me too much credit if you believe I was purposely drawing out votes. But I do think because I'm an easy target, a despair might think he or she can get away with a bandwagon vote.
for now, I'll keep my current vote. I'll be sure to check in later as the countdown clock is ticking.
*purposely drawing out votes from mafia.
Here's my final vote for Day 1. (I have a long afternoon with a 3-hour meeting, so I can't check in much to contribute to discussion.)
I want to test my theory on *Splinter, Sawneeks, and Hagi, and of the three, Hagi is the only one who has at least one vote right now.
VOTE: Hagi
I want to test my theory on *Splinter, Sawneeks, and Hagi, and of the three, Hagi is the only one who has at least one vote right now.
VOTE: Hagi
Do you have any reason to suspect Hagi, beyond his association with me?
No, my vote is based on self-confidence bordering arrogance.
Among the three of you, I actually suspect you the least. You made some good contributions to our Day 1 discussion, but to me, Hagi hasn't.
Well, that's fine, but it doesn't give people much to agree or disagree with
No, it doesn't, but I'm not looking to persuade anyone to go with my Day 1 vote. I don't have enough time, unfortunately. You are all free to vote whom you find the most suspicious based on your deduction.
Note, this is still an example of collective information, but everyone lists one person each, rather than two that I had wanted, or ten that GAF does for its annual GotY awards. We can hope that the person we end up choosing by plurality is the right one to have chosen.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I'm by no means fully satisfied with Salva's response, but he's done us the basic courtesy of letting us know how he feels about at least one other player (swamped), and his explanation seems at least plausible and consistent with how both have played so far. I'm not comfortable with my vote on him any more. I've also decided that, as we're now reaching the end of the day, it's time to use my vote more forcefully. So, first, a brief description of how I feel about players so far - note that I'll explain why I found you suspicious, but I'm not going into my townreads in too much detail so early in the game, so this is dedicated to null and scumreads.
A Human Becoming: I'm struggling to tell if this is new player jitters or not. I'm leaning somewhat towards it being so, but I can't understand how someone can have so little contribute given we've had over 10 pages of discussion at this point. There's huge amounts of material to go through, certainly enough for someone even with very limited experience to posit something.
ViviOggi: I'm not really happy with the direction ViviOggi has taken. His posts are either largely nothings, or focused on tunnelling kingkitty. There's barely any other comment on any other of the various conversation topics that have popped up so far. The exclusion to this is when Vivi decided to comment on Rest and myself earlier, but the post (#664) is deeply non-commital. It sort of throws shade at both Rest and myself in small degrees without actually coming to any sort of genuine and definite conclusion, and doesn't seek to push either of us further.
Pau: This is more of a nullread than a scumread, but Pau has 8 posts. Eight. That's less than Blargonaut and he's not even playing in our game. Obviously I understand real life concerns get in the way, but that has a limit, so I'm watching Pau more closely if not moved to act immediately.
Hagi: Almost exactly the same reasons as above. This level of town inactivity is deeply harmful - we can't tell if you're scum or not, which is a distraction we don't need, and if you die we don't learn anything (except that you weren't scum, which isn't useful at that point) because you didn't form any connections with other players.
VOTE: Makai
Mafia is not about PRs. The original game functions without PRs. If the PRs are critical to town's victory, it wasn't a well-designed game. The key and critical fundamental mechanic by which mafia works is giving reads. If nobody gives that, the game doesn't work. Makai is deliberately avoiding playing the game and has no good justification for this. He is either scum, or a town who is playing *actively* to the detriment of other town players. I have absolutely no hesitation in recommending his Punishment.
A Human Becoming: I'm struggling to tell if this is new player jitters or not. I'm leaning somewhat towards it being so, but I can't understand how someone can have so little contribute given we've had over 10 pages of discussion at this point. There's huge amounts of material to go through, certainly enough for someone even with very limited experience to posit something.
ViviOggi: I'm not really happy with the direction ViviOggi has taken. His posts are either largely nothings, or focused on tunnelling kingkitty. There's barely any other comment on any other of the various conversation topics that have popped up so far. The exclusion to this is when Vivi decided to comment on Rest and myself earlier, but the post (#664) is deeply non-commital. It sort of throws shade at both Rest and myself in small degrees without actually coming to any sort of genuine and definite conclusion, and doesn't seek to push either of us further.
Pau: This is more of a nullread than a scumread, but Pau has 8 posts. Eight. That's less than Blargonaut and he's not even playing in our game. Obviously I understand real life concerns get in the way, but that has a limit, so I'm watching Pau more closely if not moved to act immediately.
Hagi: Almost exactly the same reasons as above. This level of town inactivity is deeply harmful - we can't tell if you're scum or not, which is a distraction we don't need, and if you die we don't learn anything (except that you weren't scum, which isn't useful at that point) because you didn't form any connections with other players.
VOTE: Makai
Mafia is not about PRs. The original game functions without PRs. If the PRs are critical to town's victory, it wasn't a well-designed game. The key and critical fundamental mechanic by which mafia works is giving reads. If nobody gives that, the game doesn't work. Makai is deliberately avoiding playing the game and has no good justification for this. He is either scum, or a town who is playing *actively* to the detriment of other town players. I have absolutely no hesitation in recommending his Punishment.
LaunchpadMcQ
Banned
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
The huge amount of material is the problem. I've only looked up to post #497 carefully. I'm probably approaching this the wrong way, I'm just looking for anything that stands out to me.
Like for example how CornBurrito, kgtrep and goshujinsama all posted they believe swamped is Hope. One of them could be Despair or have a role. It seems too early to defend anyone.
Then there's this. Why post your thoughts on everyone? It's a strategy that could signify multiple things. He could be lying to protect other Despair or making himself as possible target for Despair in the future. There's a chance he's lying on some or all to see what the response will be.
I agree that activity is important, but what you don't say matters just as much, as again people who are inactive have been viewed as the most suspicious. kgtrep responded to my misunderstanding earlier, except for my question about why it would matter if this was the first GAF Mafia to lynch a mafia on the first day. That gave support for an earlier comment Hagi made that he seems too "gung ho" to lynch.
Posting your thoughts on everyone can be a good way to show people what you are thinking and it is better than splitting up your thoughts over the course of the day. It also means that we can go back to these posts in the future when needed.
Sure I did. I do not like aggressive players and I have said so repeatedly. You and CzarTim are the most aggressive. Too many people consider you leaders and are giving you guys a pass because you are "experienced." Trust no1. However, I know that this is CzarTim's natural playstyle and probably yours too. CzarTim also said something I interpreted as a potential dogwhistle. I want to see what happens on night 1 before I declare one of you Despair.
A Human Becoming
More than a Member
Which is shortsighted, making me suspicious of you. This game is all about the long term.
I think it's too easy for blatant thoughts on everyone to be misconstrued. He could be posting what he is thinking or what he wants us to think. Going back to posts can be bad whether you're wrong or right with a prediction. It leaves you open either way, maybe less so if you're Despair.
Zippedpinhead
Member
Welcome to mafia-GAF, most of us lie to get the information we need, even when we are the HOPE of the world. We also like to make friends and influence people, so we can punch the ones we don't trust.
I'm still voting for you. It's not personal, think of it as a wake up call for tomorrow.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Okay guys, bear(heh) with me, but I'm going to change my vote:
VOTE: Zippedpinhead
The reason I'm doing so is because of a pattern I recognized from all previous mafia games. On day one, the mafia almost always were middle of the road players. Practically everyone who looked bad on day one were just townies who made mistakes. And the ones who looked good were the townies who actually got the job done. But those in the middle of the road tended to be mafia, and who fits that description better at the moment than Zippedpinhead?
Yes, it is very much a shot in the dark, but so are all day one votes to a certain extent. I don't expect this to become THE vote for today, but it is something I want to be considered.
VOTE: Zippedpinhead
The reason I'm doing so is because of a pattern I recognized from all previous mafia games. On day one, the mafia almost always were middle of the road players. Practically everyone who looked bad on day one were just townies who made mistakes. And the ones who looked good were the townies who actually got the job done. But those in the middle of the road tended to be mafia, and who fits that description better at the moment than Zippedpinhead?
Yes, it is very much a shot in the dark, but so are all day one votes to a certain extent. I don't expect this to become THE vote for today, but it is something I want to be considered.
Zippedpinhead
Member
*punch* was an autocorrect of Lynch, but I think it still works...
I have some reads on some of the more prolific players,
Crab. - really showing us why he wanted to bring this game to GAF, lots of insight and appears to be on top of things. Could be a long form gambit from a mafia player (they will never suspect me because I am their leader) but I think lots of people will investigate/watch/switch/night time action him. It would be a heck of a gambit.
Czartim - exactly what I expected from him, very consistent, need more information for a good "not how he played previous games" read.
cornburrito - has been holding his own, well thought out posts. Probably hope.
I have some reads on some of the more prolific players,
Crab. - really showing us why he wanted to bring this game to GAF, lots of insight and appears to be on top of things. Could be a long form gambit from a mafia player (they will never suspect me because I am their leader) but I think lots of people will investigate/watch/switch/night time action him. It would be a heck of a gambit.
Czartim - exactly what I expected from him, very consistent, need more information for a good "not how he played previous games" read.
cornburrito - has been holding his own, well thought out posts. Probably hope.
As I told *Splinter, you are all free to vote whom you find the most suspicious. If anyone decides to vote Hagi, the person that I've chosen for Day 1, it should be based on their deduction.
Day 1 is not about the long term, but about finding the right person to lynch. As I had discussed with CornBurrito and Pau, we should not worry about Day 2 and beyond.
I've made my case for voting for a lynch on day one, and I'm keeping my vote on Maka as he's still voting no punishment and I think that right now is the most detrimental thing for Hope.
Also, half the time my posts don't even get responses even when they have questions in them, so that's kind of eh.
I'm not sure if it's a work of art or if I should be revolted by it. It's weird.
I'm still willing to discuss any posts of mine that you find suspicious/warrant suspicion.
what even is this post lol you can't be serious.
I litterally went through every one of your posts and you have nothing. Not a single alignment call. Not a single thing that would tie you to any other player in this game. So when you say "Sure I did" I need some receipts, mate.
And you don't like aggressive players? Because aggressive players are always mafia right? It's a great idea to generate discussion and get people to talk?
I'm not seeing how anyone views Crab and I as leaders considering you have all of 1 vote outside of ours. Maybe my dog whistle is broken.
I sincerely hope you are mafia because you've done nothing all game. Terrible town play if you're not.
Thanks, maybe some other day. My level of suspicion of you was only relative to *Splinter and Hagi; I didn't mean to convey that I found you second most suspicious among all 22 people excluding me.
For now, I have to be suspicious about my research, ugh.