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[Royal_Flush]

Are we doing this again? *sigh*

I am telling you, it's either Swamped or Kingkitty (Given that Sawneeks saw nothing. Which is the case unless Despair acted really stupid).

If it is Swamped, we are looking at a godfather here (probably Zippedpinhead or maybe Terrabyte).
If it is Kingkitty, it is Makai.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

This is what I feared, we wasted yesterday because we didn't focus on the obvious targets, namely Swamped and Royal_Flush. I said that those two were the keys, but noooooo.


*sigh* Sorry, I just kinda saw this coming after yesterday.


Okay down to business, it's Swamped or Royal Flush so pick your side.

VOTE: Royal_Flush


Swamped, why is Flush scum.

Flush, why is swamped scum.


I swear if I see anyone else name a single person besides these two and their name isn't Sawneeks, I will policy Lynch you.

 

[Sawneeks]

Launch, how many votes are needed to end a Day early?

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

I believe 5 is the majority.

 

[Royal_Flush]

We need 5 votes for majority, I currently have 3.

Has anyone made up their mind for good yet? Whom can I still convince without bringing new evidence to the table (all I have already was presented yesterday. I could try to go over every Swamped post ever again, but I won't bother if you give me the feeling it is for nothing)? If enough are already fixed on me, please say so, so we can get over with this sad episode.

Also keep the possibility in mind, that Makai and kingkitty are Despair.

Positive thought of the day: Christina Mackenzie is cleared for now.

 

[Royal_Flush]

* Well, I guess she is only cleared for the kills so far...

 

[Royal_Flush]

Flush, why is swamped scum.

Because I'm not.

Also 4600

 

[Sawneeks]

We need 5 votes for majority, I currently have 3.

Has anyone made up their mind for good yet? Whom can I still convince without bringing new evidence to the table (all I have already was presented yesterday. I could try to go over every Swamped post ever again, but I won't bother if you give me the feeling it is for nothing)? If enough are already fixed on me, please say so, so we can get over with this sad episode.

Also keep the possibility in mind, that Makai and kingkitty are Despair.

Positive thought of the day: Christina Mackenzie is cleared for now.

My problem with much of the 'evidence' towards Swamped is a large majority of it can be explained by her just not being able to access GAF which is something she has said she has trouble doing during the day. She is also usually never here for the end of a Day and has been fairly consistent with that leading me to believe she is telling the truth about simply not being around to post during those times. I would like to see evidence towards her that doesn't involve time as a factor.

As for Makai/King I'm giving the idea a lot of thought. If anything this would mean King is the Despair and carried out the kills but I am willing to wait on that for a little.

 

[Makai]

We need 5 votes for majority, I currently have 3.

Has anyone made up their mind for good yet? Whom can I still convince without bringing new evidence to the table (all I have already was presented yesterday. I could try to go over every Swamped post ever again, but I won't bother if you give me the feeling it is for nothing)? If enough are already fixed on me, please say so, so we can get over with this sad episode.

Also keep the possibility in mind, that Makai and kingkitty are Despair.

Positive thought of the day: Christina Mackenzie is cleared for now.

I haven't made up my mind, but I'm not budging if you're just deflecting to Kingkitty. Make a case against Swamped.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

A your own case, don't just deflect to Goshujinsama, I want your own words, or else I'll tell on you for plagarizim!

Spoiler

 

[Makai]

UNVOTE: Royal_Flush

I am unvoting to prevent turbo, but consider my vote still on Flush.

 

[Royal_Flush]

Fine, I'll go through all her posts. Will take a while. One has to do what one has to do to (maybe) prevent you from a mislynch.

 

[kingkitty]

In retrospect, I should have fought harder to save Rest, considering how much evidence I laid out that showed how often scum shat on him from Day 1.

But whatever, I already gave my reason for why I think Flush is the best target. Doesn't change today. I 100 percent intend to have his guts thrown into a toaster.

 

[Makai]

If it is Swamped, we are looking at a godfather here (probably Zippedpinhead or maybe Terrabyte).

Role Godfather makes no sense. It's a terrible role. If Role Cop has investigated them, they're dead when spotted in the halls. Much better to get exposed as a Super High School Level ______ and lie about your alignment and abilities. I think you and Swamped are both Despair and I want to see you bus each other now.

 

[Royal_Flush]

Role Godfather makes no sense. It's a terrible role. If Role Cop has investigated them, they're dead when spotted in the halls. Much better to get exposed as a Super High School Level ______ and lie about your alignment and abilities. I think you and Swamped are both Despair and I want to see you bus each other now.

Unbolded part probably is correct. That would leave only Swamped + Christina or you + kingkitty.

On the bolded: Are you one of these people that tear out the legs of flies?

 

[Makai]

Unbolded part probably is correct. That would leave only Swamped + Christina or you + kingkitty.

On the bolded: Are you one of these people that tear out the legs of flies?

I just open the window so the fly has a way out. Your way out is convincing me to lynch Swamped.

 

[Ty4on]

The dead thread needs their pop star, Launch.

 

[Zippedpinhead]

Are we doing this again? *sigh*

I am telling you, it's either Swamped or Kingkitty (Given that Sawneeks saw nothing. Which is the case unless Despair acted really stupid).

If it is Swamped, we are looking at a godfather here (probably Zippedpinhead or maybe Terrabyte).
If it is Kingkitty, it is Makai.

Why do you keep giving goshujinsama a free pass when you talk about a godfather. You are the only person that is mentioning godfather and not including all three of us.

My problem with much of the 'evidence' towards Swamped is a large majority of it can be explained by her just not being able to access GAF which is something she has said she has trouble doing during the day. She is also usually never here for the end of a Day and has been fairly consistent with that leading me to believe she is telling the truth about simply not being around to post during those times. I would like to see evidence towards her that doesn't involve time as a factor.

As for Makai/King I'm giving the idea a lot of thought. If anything this would mean King is the Despair and carried out the kills but I am willing to wait on that for a little.

I've been thinking about this a lot too. I think we will have to put them to the test, probably next week if we don't lynch despair this week.

A your own case, don't just deflect to Goshujinsama, I want your own words, or else I'll tell on you for plagarizim!

Spoiler

I trust terrabyte more than goshujinsama of the two "cleared by AB" characters.

Royal_flush defends goshu by ommission and goshu actively defends roya_flush

Today
vote:royal_flush

If he flips hope, I think we need to target king kitty and confirm that him and makai are who they say they are

If royal_flush flips despair we evict goshu (as he appears to be most likely to be godfather) and probably win.

I am confident we only have two more despair people, and at this point it makes sense that they actively defend each other.

 

[Makai]

There is no Godfather. This is like falling for the "ninja" theory all over again. If we kill a Despair today, we need to kill the rest of the real suspects.

 

[Royal_Flush]

Why do you keep giving goshujinsama a free pass when you talk about a godfather. You are the only person that is mentioning godfather and not including all three of us.

[...]

I am confident we only have two more despair people, and at this point it makes sense that they actively defend each other.

You are answering your own question. This whole godfather thing only would be relevant if Swamped is Despair. And there is no way in hell goshu and Swamped both are Despair.

 

[Sawneeks]

You are answering your own question. This whole godfather thing only would be relevant if Swamped is Despair. And there is no way in hell goshu and Swamped both are Despair.

How could they both not be Despair? I haven't seen any evidence against that.

 

[Royal_Flush]

How could they both not be Despair? I haven't seen any evidence against that.

goshu went after Swamped really hard yesterday. That didn't read like a staged play. In fact, goshu was the only one who actively went against her.

 

[Sawneeks]

Also, King, how sure are you of your Lucky Buddy's alignment? 100%? 60%?

 

[Sawneeks]

goshu went after Swamped really hard yesterday. That didn't read like a staged play. In fact, goshu was the only one who actively went against her.

...

Oops. Knew I was forgetting something haha. That makes sense that they both couldn't be Despair after that. Although I'm still not convinced on Swamped or Goshu being Despair. Both strike me as Hope.

 

[Royal_Flush]

...

Oops. Knew I was forgetting something haha. That makes sense that they both couldn't be Despair after that. Although I'm still not convinced on Swamped or Goshu being Despair. Both strike me as Hope.

You know what the really sad thing is? As a gut-reading Swamped still strikes me as Hope... I hate my position right now.

 

[kingkitty]

Also, King, how sure are you of your Lucky Buddy's alignment? 100%? 60%?

91.325 percent

 

[Sawneeks]

You know what the really sad thing is? As a gut-reading Swamped still strikes me as Hope... I hate my position right now.

Still waiting on the more concrete evidence against Swamped from you. I'm still convinced you are the right vote for today but if really, truly believe Swamped is Despair then it would be good to get the evidence against her out in the open. If we lynch you and you end up flipping Hope then we can easily move on to Swamped if the evidence is strong enough.

91.325 percent

only despair deal in decimals. obvi scum tell.

In all seriousness though, do you trust Makai given what your PR says and in light of his actions?

 

[Makai]

91.325 percent

I think if you read your PM again you will see that it is impossible for one of us to be Despair. I realize I've become a lot like Crab, but I gotta free the rest of the students from Despair and no one else was setting the agenda.

 

[sandalphon]

goshu went after Swamped really hard yesterday. That didn't read like a staged play. In fact, goshu was the only one who actively went against her.

I remain convinced that Swamped is Despair. I had said yesterday that I lean Hope for both you and Rest, but Hope was not listening to me. I believed this is not a new phenomenon to me since I was also the only one that was convinced that CzarTim was Despair at Day 3. If I am not mistaken, the rest of Hope was willing to punish CzarTim due to information gathering motivations but I was persuaded that he was Despair for certain. Maybe if Hope would extend another chance and trust in my judgement another time, we will identify another Despair today.


I will not vote for Royal_Flush today. I have stated my reasons and candidate preferences, and I remain resolute.

Vote: Swamped

 

[kingkitty]

In all seriousness though, do you trust Makai given what your PR says and in light of his actions?

When I read through the thread, I saw how scum interacted with Makai early on, and it was generally very negative, such as starting votes against him, listing him as "scum" on their reads, etc.

It was the same deal with Rest. And look what we found out, Rest was hope after all. I'm going with my gut vibes here. When it comes to Makai, there was no great scum plan to shit on their own from Day 1, just as there wasn't for Rest.

Also this is an issue that Makai brought up before I role claimed, but the way the PM is worded, whether it was on purpose by launchpad or not, makes it hard for me to consider Makai as a scum alignment.

It's these areas that makes me more and more confident in his hopeness. And I hope people can see my way too, since despair would love it if the town could mislynch one of the bulletproof people. Would really help ease the pressure.

 

[Ourobolus]

91.325 percent

Sure it isn't 50%?

Spoiler

...I'll see myself out.

 

[kingkitty]

I think if you read your PM again you will see that it is impossible for one of us to be Despair. I realize I've become a lot like Crab, but I gotta free the rest of the students from Despair and no one else was setting the agenda.

Yeah yeah I know, I was just having a laff.

 

[Royal_Flush]

I just came across this: Can we figure out what happened N3? *Splinter apparently crossed Swamped.

Just a sidenote, I'll continue now.

 

[Royal_Flush]

nvm, he probably targeted Swamped

 

[Sawneeks]

When I read through the thread, I saw how scum interacted with Makai early on, and it was generally very negative, such as starting votes against him, listing him as "scum" on their reads, etc.

It was the same deal with Rest. And look what we found out, Rest was hope after all. I'm going with my gut vibes here. When it comes to Makai, there was no great scum plan to shit on their own from Day 1, just as there wasn't for Rest.

Also this is an issue that Makai brought up before I role claimed, but the way the PM is worded, whether it was on purpose by launchpad or not, makes it hard for me to consider Makai as a scum alignment.

It's these areas that makes me more and more confident in his hopeness. And I hope people can see my way too, since despair would love it if the town could mislynch one of the bulletproof people. Would really help ease the pressure.

Awesome, thank you. Helps me move around my 'possible scum' list.

I just came across this: Can we figure out what happened N3? *Splinter apparently crossed Swamped.

Just a sidenote, I'll continue now.

You lost me. *Splinter targeted Swamped?? Were did you get that?

 

[Royal_Flush]

Awesome, thank you. Helps me move around my 'possible scum' list.



You lost me. *Splinter targeted Swamped?? Were did you get that?

Swamped, Sawneeks, Senwak, Sdkwean. It all reads the same I meant Sawneeks.

*Splinter (as Kalor) was seen by Pau and Sawneeks, not by AB (who moved to the left). Therefore he went to the bottom row. No NK N3. Therefore I guess he targeted you.

 

[Sawneeks]

Unvote: Royal_Flush

Before any more votes start showing up I do want to hear from Swamped/Royal. Swamped for reactions and what she plans on doing for this Day phase and I want to give Royal time to come up with a defense.

Swamped, Sawneeks, Senwak, Sdkwean. It all reads the same I meant Sawneeks.

*Splinter (as Kalor) was seen by Pau and Sawneeks, not by AB (who moved to the left). Therefore he went to the bottom row. No NK N3. Therefore I guess he targeted you.

I think that's what happened that Night as well. And seeing as our Lovers are now dead I really do think Despair targeted me N3, missed, went after Pau/Ty4on on N4 ( possibly trying to hit a facility or even Pau's room? ) and then missed again. They gave up and then went after someone else on N5.

 

[Swamped]

So they finally got the lovers. That's a pretty big blow for us, because they were both very astute players, especially Ty4on. Ty4on predicted there was a mimic an entire day phase before it became apparent there was. I personally think it's worth going back through his D7 posts to see if he was on to something.

Since Sawneeks did not see anyone, this is likely going to be DR's second Thunderdome between Flush and myself.

The way I see it, here are some possible scenarios.

1. Despair is probably backed up against a wall. If there is only one Despair left it has to be Flushy by process of elimination (which honestly is kind of an anti-climactic way of finding Despair...). From the way you played I'd have never known, so definitely kudos to you if you are Despair, you made this game fun.

2. If there are two Despairs left, it's Flush and CM.

3. Now the interesting part...if there are three Despairs left then one of the PRs is lying...and that sure would revitalize this game!

I truly can't guess at how many Despairs are left, 1, 2, 3 all seem like probable numbers to me. I remember the Star Wars game did have 5 scum, but AC had 4.

I think Flush has three votes on him? And 5 to turbo. I'm not going to vote for him yet just in case he is Hope and the real scum hammers the vote.

I'm going to have a look through Flush's posts, but I honestly had him leaning Hope. At the very start of the game I was ambivalent on Vivi, but sort of came around to him and Flush leaning Hope (especially after Czar pointed out his vote on D3, what an odd thing to do if Flush was Despair). I'm also going to look through why others have pinged him as Despair.

I just really don't want this scenario: I ping Flush as Hope, but scrape through his posts to find anything that's remotely scummy behavior and present that as 'evidence'. I don't want to be grasping at straws to prove someone is Hope.

I think you and Swamped are both Despair and I want to see you bus each other now.

...I get the feeling you're really enjoying yourself lol.

 

[Swamped]

I just really don't want this scenario: I ping Flush as Hope, but scrape through his posts to find anything that's remotely scummy behavior and present that as 'evidence'. I don't want to be grasping at straws to prove someone is Despair.

Quote edit.

 

[Terrabyte20xx]

VOTE: swamped

 

[Makai]

I truly can't guess at how many Despairs are left, 1, 2, 3 all seem like probable numbers to me. I remember the Star Wars game did have 5 scum, but AC had 4..

Star Wars had 5 because they were split into groups of 2 and 3, with each group ignorant of the other's identities and one group couldn't kill. Lucky Buddies are like the armorers of this game, balanced by the lovers.

 

[Makai]

I just really don't want this scenario: I ping Flush as Hope, but scrape through his posts to find anything that's remotely scummy behavior and present that as 'evidence'. I don't want to be grasping at straws to prove someone is Hope.

"We're both Hope!" Nice.

 

[Swamped]

"We're both Hope!" Nice.

Like I said, I had him down leaning Hope, but I'll go through his posts and see if there's any scummy behavior there. I just really don't want to be presenting stuff like 'Oh he posted at 6.23pm on a Tuesday, that's scumtell!'

Since many of you have pinged him as Despair, there must be something there and clearly I need to be more careful reading through Flush's posts.

 

[Royal_Flush]

I would be okay with a Makai lynch today. His attitude is really annoying.

 

[Royal_Flush]

Disclaimer: I may or may not make a similar post for Makai tomorrow. (Its f*cking 3:30 am here). Please do not turbo anyone.

Evidence

All relevant posts made by swamped, especially suspicious ones in bold, posts that are kind of exonerating in italic

DAY 1

198: Not really suspicious but very funny given the current claims

390: Gets afraid of the bandwagon she started against AB

453: Says Despair would not say they are Hope but deflect (funnily enough, I don't think she ever said she is Hope until yesterday)

492: Unvotes in panic when she thinks her current target is the switcher (it's not)

652: "Maybe I SHOULD tone [my activity] down. [...] lol"

653: Has Hagi, Makai and francorp as top suspects. No confirmed Despair so far.

816: Posts a list with reads of Players she "hadn't had much interaction with". Not included is CzarTim, whom she had had no interaction at all at this point (Despite in the Despair chat maybe?). Also note that *Splinter has a solid Hope read)

DAY 2

1798: Her vote for crab because he immediately assumed kgtrep was Hope

1843: Announcement of read-list to come later on. Same pattern as with *Splinter's tables?

1864: Said read-list. *Splinter and CzarTim both Hope

DAY 3

2023: Speculations that Salve switched himself with the kill target. Note that the only possibility that could be the case is if he switched himself with AB, based on the movement info

2038: Again the anouncment for reads...

2060: Votes for Makai based on his fishy roleclaim

2111: Reaction post to CzarTim's reveal. I can't nail why exactly, but it feels a bit forced.

2116: Pressures CzarTim

2220: All the reasons why she "now" believes CzarTim's roleclaim.

2238: Casts doubt on crab (whom CzarTim will override later that day)

2277: Complains that noone votes (maybe she wants more to hide in)

2356: thought Makai's PR was to reveal a Hope-alignment. Phishing?

2358: paddles back from the maybe phishing

2364: Slight heat on Terrabyte

2410: For punishing CzarTim (doesn't mean anything that day as he wanted himself gone to use override)

2458: actually votes CzarTim as one of the first persons

DAY 4

2821: *Splinter not on her agenda for closer looks

2824: dismisses the Ninja theory

2829: Speculating on why no NK

2837: Further dismisses Ninja theory

2843: Thinks CzarTim attempted NK3 (he didn't)

2847: Introduces facility theory

2907: Disregards commuter/roleblocker theory as "convoluted"

3207: Glorifies *Splinter's documents as "very interesting to go through" (reminder: one of the two tables is copy-paste from Launchpad)

3213: Still going after AB, Swamped and Terrabyte

DAY 5

3296: Brings up roleblocker for deathless N4[

3220: Thinks of 3P based in CzarTim's role PM

3344: Brings up theory 2 Despair would be running around N1

3374: Against revealing *redacted*'s name

3405: *Splinter again not on the suspicious-list

3493: votes for AB

3722, 3750: Suspicious of *Splinter

DAY 6

3979: Premade post under assumption AB is still alive. That id the first premade post she ever made; could easily be fake.

4038: case against Sawneeks. (Note that point 3 could be used against her too)

4048: "Why did Despair choose AB?"

4104: *Splinter finally included in suspicious-list

DAY 7

4629: Says Despair would have bussed *Splinter. Had no votes on *Splinter.


Posts made by *Splinter mentioning Swamped

330: Doesn't like Swamped's first post vote, yet votes kgtrep

454: Defends Swamped

2288: Listpost with neutral verdict on both CzarTim and Swamped

3724: The elbow bump over Christina Mackenzie


Posts made by CzarTim mentioning Swamped

681, 734: Has both Crab and Swamped on the same Despair-Level

1698: listpost, Swamped "started strong"


Bonus round: Yesterday's voting

Swamped immediately went after Rest, despite mechanically it was unlikely he was the killer.

I repeadetly stated I would rather lynch Swamped than Rest.

The point is: Once one of us is dead there is no obvious target to deflect NK origins to. For Despair it is much more useful to have close neighbors (that doesn't count for NKs, tough because killing nearby people lowers the detection risk)


Verdict

From her behavior alone I'm not convinced. There are a few suspicious things (the most significant one #816) but also some very hopelike posts (e.g. #2837)

What strikes me as very suspicious are *Splinter's early interactions with her. His later interactions are more reasonable. That fits with the fact that he is a first time mafia player (if I remember correct).

 

[Royal_Flush]

Good night.

 

[Swamped]

Uuuuhhhh am I going to have to list out every single Vivi/Flush post like that too, with the hyperlinks and all? Uhhhhhhhh

 

[Swamped]

So I'm going to start out my analysis with the conviction that Flush is actually an excellent Despair. I wonder if all his actions will make sense if I do that.

Day 1 - Vivi immediately bandwagon's a vote against AB, but then claims he fell into a newbie trap. After this, he does several things that look very hope-like: he keeps his vote saying it would look more suspicious if he removed it, he generates discussion regarding KK's gambit Day1 and how other people reacted to it. Anyway, all of this looks Hope-like but remember that this was just D1. CzarTim looked pretty Hope then too. I'm not sure if it's that beneficial to keep analyzing D1.

Day 2 - This was the Crab vs Kgtrep day. Again, difficult to parse out any information from this duel since they both ended up Hope, and Despair probably didn't care which one got lynched by the end of it. CzarTim has a null read on him, which is a convenient way to not give away much about a fellow Despair partner. Had both Splinter and CzarTim down as Hope. I was still pretty wary of him at this point.

Actually wait...in recent days Flush has been doing something pretty scummy that I wasn't paying close attention to. I remember before Rest died he asked everyone to post their scum teams, and Flush replied, but all his posts with more than one scum, he lists the Makai/KK team. But then, why not the Pau/Ty couple? They too had confirmed only each other, but I feel like the chances that Makai/KK were scum and Pau/Ty were scum were relatively equal. So why not include them?

Now, according to my theory I posted in D7, if there are only two Despairs left the most they can do is tie because of of the Lucksters (I'm assuming they are telling the truth about their claim). And if there is only 1 then Despair has already lost even if they kill everyone else. Even today Flush has repeatedly said he is willing to vote for KK, but not in an overtly aggressive way. From his perspective, he really ought to be voting for me, but it feels like he's trying to keep his options open? Plus wouldn't it be great for Despair to lynch the bullet proofs? I can understand if he actually had some reasoning for thinking KK was Despair, but I think the only reason he suspects KK is because of last night's kill.

I'm going to keep going through the old days (but it's really boring) and see if there is anything else. I will keep in mind that excellent scum will appear extremely town-like in the early phases of the game. But they will almost inevitably slip up during the late phase, because it's impossible to keep up that persona.

I'm going to go through Day 6 next, when Splinter was voted out. I found it odd that Flush's was the only vote on Ty, and I pegged that as a Hope thing since Despair would want to bus Splinter at that point. But I'll have to look at the context more closely.

Oh yeah, now I'm remembering something else. Splinter questions CM pretty strongly (Day 5 I think?), giving the impression he's trying to get the new replacement to slip up. I asked him why he didn't do the same with Flush, and wasn't very satisfied with his answer. To me at the time it did feel like Splinter was protecting Flush in some way.

This is exciting...I'm keeping my eyes on you, Flushy

Spoiler

-Poo

 

[Swamped]

Swamped immediately went after Rest, despite mechanically it was unlikely he was the killer.

I think I explained why I did this. Rest's behavior felt more scummy to me at the time, even if it was unlikely he did the kill. I had you down as Hope because of 2 reasons. CzarTime points out Vivi's vote on him Day 3. And you voted for Ty on D6, the only one. CM was also a good option for me at the time but she wasn't going to get voted out. Therefore I voted Rest, who's voting pattern struck me as scummy. I felt like I had some real evidence there. Of course, I was totally wrong...

What strikes me as very suspicious are *Splinter's early interactions with her.

Any particular interactions? One of the posts you have in your list (post 454) I'm not even mentioned in...it's all about Sawneeks. Just because our names start with S doesn't mean we are the same person lol!

I will say this about myself and my impression of Splinter - I really did have Splinter pegged as Hope in the early days. I felt like he was abrasive but genuinely trying to generate discussion. His posts were always fairly detailed. Of course after D5 info from the other rulebreakers and logic from the map made it obvious that he had to be the mimic. And from his D6 posts and roleclaim I was quite certain that he was Despair.

 

[Swamped]

I want to believe that Pau was the Yakuza and Ty4on was the Pop Sensation.