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Danganronpa Mafia |OT| Grin and Bear It

M

Makai

Member
Thanks, guys. Flush, I'll give it a real read tomorrow. Too late for info dumps. :|

Royal_Flush said:
198: Not really suspicious but very funny given the current claims
Click to expand...
Nice find, lol.

giphy.gif
 
S

Swamped

Banned
And Launchpad, why won't you update the OP with links to the start and end of the day phases? PLEASE! All the other mods did it!
 
C

Christina Mackenzie

Member
Sawneeks said:
As for Makai/King I'm giving the idea a lot of thought. If anything this would mean King is the Despair and carried out the kills but I am willing to wait on that for a little.
Click to expand...

Zippedpinhead said:
I've been thinking about this a lot too. I think we will have to put them to the test, probably next week if we don't lynch despair this week.
Click to expand...

I'm in favor of testing this out sooner rather than later.

If Rest is right and there are 5 Despair not 4, Makai and kingkitty could run away with the game.

If either Royal_Flush/swamped are also Despair, they'll bus him/her and continue until the end of the game unopposed.

I believe Pau and Ty4on were killed because they were on to something. The way they are positioned any Despair member could target someone else and not be seen by them. Logically Sawneeks should have been last night's target.

Ty4on's Makai vote
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178772270&postcount=4567

Sawneeks, I implore you to really think about this. Without you, no one left is going to be able stand up against Makai. At least with Pau & Ty4on they could have kept him in check but they're gone now.

AB died and cleared goshujinsama/Terrabyte20xx/Zippedpinhead, no one did the same for Makai and kingkitty.
 
M

Makai

Member
Even if there's 3 more Despair, the number game works out such that we don't have to test the buddies today. Come up with a scenario where I'm wrong if you disagree.
 
T

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Sawneeks said:
Lot of info to look through. Thank you to both of you for writing up your 5 page paper on why we should lynch the other person.
:p



Care to explain why?
Click to expand...
Pressure, better safe than sorry.

And I'm disappointed at how long it took for anyone to point that out.
 
M

Makai

Member
If you don't understand that...let me help you out:

----------

Assume there are 3 more Despair

Today
Despair
Despair
Despair
Town
Town
Town
Town
Town
Town

6 > 3

Tomorrow after mislynch and night kill
Despair
Despair
Despair
Town
Town
Town
Town

4 > 3

-------------

Assume there are 2 more Despair

Today
Despair
Despair
Town
Town
Town
Town
Town
Town
Town

7 > 2

Tomorrow after mislynch and night kill
Despair
Despair
Town
Town
Town
Town
Town

5 > 2

Day after tomorrow after mislynch and night kill
Despair
Despair
Town
Town
Town

3 > 2
 
C

Christina Mackenzie

Member
Confirmed/Vetted

Makai
kingkitty
goshujinsama
Terrabyte20xx
Zippedpinhead
Sawneeks

Suspects

Christina Mackenzie
Royal_Flush
swamped

D8
Lynch swamped = Flips DESPAIR

N8
Sawneeks killed

D9
Lynch Royal_Flush = Flips HOPE

N9
Let's say Zipped dies

D10

Confirmed/Vetted

Makai
kingkitty
goshujinsama
Terrabyte20xx

Suspects

Christina Mackenzie

So at this point do we test the buddies theory or the godfather theory or the suspects?
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Christina Mackenzie said:
I'm in favor of testing this out sooner rather than later.

If Rest is right and there are 5 Despair not 4, Makai and kingkitty could run away with the game.

If either Royal_Flush/swamped are also Despair, they'll bus him/her and continue until the end of the game unopposed.

I believe Pau and Ty4on were killed because they were on to something. The way they are positioned any Despair member could target someone else and not be seen by them. Logically Sawneeks should have been last night's target.

Ty4on's Makai vote
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178772270&postcount=4567

Sawneeks, I implore you to really think about this. Without you, no one left is going to be able stand up against Makai. At least with Pau & Ty4on they could have kept him in check but they're gone now.

AB died and cleared goshujinsama/Terrabyte20xx/Zippedpinhead, no one did the same for Makai and kingkitty.
Click to expand...

While it is true I'm considering that one of them could be Despair I still think it is in Hope's best interest to find the killer of the past 2 Nights before going after them. At the very least your idea could suggest that KingKitty is the killer ( because I would have seen Makai last Night ) but both of their 'weird' early game actions make a lot of sense in light of their claims and makes me feel that they are what they claim to be.

It's true that no one can really back up Makai/King besides each other but the same could have been said for Pau/Ty4on. Something you miraculously forgot to mention...

Terrabyte20xx said:
Pressure, better safe than sorry.

And I'm disappointed at how long it took for anyone to point that out.
Click to expand...

I'm also disappointed no one else said anything before me. :(
 
M

Makai

Member
You'd want to test buddies at that point because the Godfather theory is preposterous. Although, we're gonna vote as a bloc, so it'd end in no punishment unless Zipped and Gosh disagreed. Anyway, I was asking for a scenario where we'd need to be tested today. Tomorrow makes much more sense from town's perspective, although I'd still advocate for lynching someone else since I have special knowledge that my buddy and I are Hope.
 
M

Makai

Member
Oh....I didn't see that you were still alive at the end of your scenario. Then, hell yeah, we'd lynch you, Christina. TB and Gosh are cleared. Kingkitty and I vet each other. You're the odd one out.
 
M

Makai

Member
Sawneeks said:
While it is true I'm considering that one of them could be Despair I still think it is in Hope's best interest to find the killer of the past 2 Nights before going after them. At the very least your idea could suggest that KingKitty is the killer ( because I would have seen Makai last Night ) but both of their 'weird' early game actions make a lot of sense in light of their claims and makes me feel that they are what they claim to be.
Click to expand...
We don't have mixed alignments. If you think one of us is Despair, consider both of us Despair (we're both Hope).
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Makai said:
We don't have mixed alignments. If you think one of us is Despair, consider both of us Despair (we're both Hope).
Click to expand...

I'm just coming at this from an outside perspective. You might be telling the truth but I only have your word for that so it's hard for me to believe that 100%.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Did we ever have a good call on Barrylocke at all?? I know he wasn't crazy active but I'm trying to recall anything because I'm uncertain of CM at the moment.
 
C

Christina Mackenzie

Member
Makai said:
Oh....I didn't see that you were still alive at the end of your scenario. Then, hell yeah, we'd lynch you, Christina. TB and Gosh are cleared. Kingkitty and I vet each other. You're the odd one out.
Click to expand...

At which point you'd win the game as Despair since there is no chance of a majority vote in the day.
 
M

Makai

Member
And if we get to Day 10, and it looks like your scenario, all you need to do is convince two of us to vote with you. Your call if you want to go after buddies or the Godfather conspiracy theory.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Christina could I ask for your reads on Swamped and Royal? Also Makai and King?

I know you want to go after Makai now but what about all the evidence provided so far?
 
R

Royal_Flush

Member
Swamped said:
Uuuuhhhh am I going to have to list out every single Vivi/Flush post like that too, with the hyperlinks and all? Uhhhhhhhh
Click to expand...
The real pain starts around D5 when your eyes start getting tired...

Swamped said:
So I'm going to start out my analysis with the conviction that Flush is actually an excellent Despair. I wonder if all his actions will make sense if I do that.

[...]

Actually wait...in recent days Flush has been doing something pretty scummy that I wasn't paying close attention to. I remember before Rest died he asked everyone to post their scum teams, and Flush replied, but all his posts with more than one scum, he lists the Makai/KK team. But then, why not the Pau/Ty couple? They too had confirmed only each other, but I feel like the chances that Makai/KK were scum and Pau/Ty were scum were relatively equal. So why not include them?

Now, according to my theory I posted in D7, if there are only two Despairs left the most they can do is tie because of of the Lucksters (I'm assuming they are telling the truth about their claim). And if there is only 1 then Despair has already lost even if they kill everyone else. Even today Flush has repeatedly said he is willing to vote for KK, but not in an overtly aggressive way. From his perspective, he really ought to be voting for me, but it feels like he's trying to keep his options open? Plus wouldn't it be great for Despair to lynch the bullet proofs? I can understand if he actually had some reasoning for thinking KK was Despair, but I think the only reason he suspects KK is because of last night's kill.

[...]

Oh yeah, now I'm remembering something else. Splinter questions CM pretty strongly (Day 5 I think?), giving the impression he's trying to get the new replacement to slip up. I asked him why he didn't do the same with Flush, and wasn't very satisfied with his answer. To me at the time it did feel like Splinter was protecting Flush in some way.
Click to expand...
I'm flattered you think I could be sch a good Despair *flushes*.

I had Ty4ondown as a strong candidate for the Mimic. After this was out of the way, I read them much more Hope than the Makei/kingkitty pair.

Thing is, I'm still not 100% sure what you will flip. I'm honest with my doubts despite it would be most beneficial for me to go harder after you. In fact, the most information today I would get from a Makai lynch (though I don't know the outcome of this either), but I doubt that will happen.

I like to think that *Splinter ignored me because of my listpost early on. Something CM didn't do.

Swamped said:
Any particular interactions? One of the posts you have in your list (post 454) I'm not even mentioned in...it's all about Sawneeks. Just because our names start with S doesn't mean we are the same person lol!

I will say this about myself and my impression of Splinter - I really did have Splinter pegged as Hope in the early days. I felt like he was abrasive but genuinely trying to generate discussion. His posts were always fairly detailed. Of course after D5 info from the other rulebreakers and logic from the map made it obvious that he had to be the mimic. And from his D6 posts and roleclaim I was quite certain that he was Despair.
Click to expand...
454 is a rection to Rest's vote on you.

Why *Splinter? Ty4on could have been the mimic (that's what i thought by the end of that day, hence my vote)

Makai said:
We don't have mixed alignments. If you think one of us is Despair, consider both of us Despair (we're both Hope).
Click to expand...
You are for sure not hope. You either are Despair or this mysterious third party that we are speculating about since CzarTim's role PM

Makai said:
What are you missing, here? Bring it up on Day 9 at the earliest. We've narrowed our suspect pool to two people and you're deflecting.
Click to expand...

I'm all for testing it exactly Day 9, regardless of which of us two we lynch today.
 
S

Swamped

Banned
Royal_Flush said:
454 is a rection to Rest's vote on you.
Click to expand...

Oh, I'm sorry, I see that now. I'm quoted in that post. Wow, I guess Splinter had me fooled with his whole 'generating discussion' spiel. This is sort of beside the point, but ive learnt that it's easy for Mafia to slip through the early days unnoticed by saying some key Town-like phrases ('let's discuss stuff!' 'Let's spend 48 hours proving that lynching is better than no lynch!').

Tonight I'll look at Flush's day 5 and day 6 stuff.

Looks like there has been some discussion regarding Makai/KK. I would still rather lynch Flush or me today. But i agree it's worth going over their posts to see if there is done scummy behavior that we are just glossing over because we're making assumptions.
 
C

Christina Mackenzie

Member
Sawneeks said:
Christina could I ask for your reads on Swamped and Royal? Also Makai and King?

I know you want to go after Makai now but what about all the evidence provided so far?
Click to expand...

On their own, I'd have both Royal_Flush and swamped down as Hope but having to choose between them I'd go with Royal_Flush.

I find that he's been the more productive player, his first post made an impression on me as it feels as if he was here right from Day 1 and that's how I feel overall when reading his analysis.

Also I don't believe this exchange between him and *Splinter was staged
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=177890654&highlight=#post177890654
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=177892526&highlight=#post177892526
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showthread.php?p=177893777&highlight=#post177893777

I don't believe that there are 2 bulletproofs players because it sounds outrageous. I think everyone here has been blindsided by it since it plays to our advantage. We only have Makai's word that a second student even exists and it's all down to certain phrases in a post that no one else can see anything lucky about.

Just before *Splinter voted himself out Pau raised the question of whether kingkitty revealing helps Hope. He may have done so to avoid further discussion on the topic.

http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=178031960&postcount=4358

Royal_Flush said:
I'm all for testing it exactly Day 9, regardless of which of us two we lynch today.
Click to expand...

I'd go along with this as well.
 
T

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
After we get another Despair, we will kill either Makai or King Kitty just to make sure their stories check out, after that we should be home free.


The key word is AFTER, meaning we need to take one out first.
 
M

Makai

Member
There is the issue of losing an absolutely incredible role. The only way Despair can kill us is by lynching. Testing the buddies needs to be delayed until it is necessary. I've laid it out here. I welcome this discussion tomorrow, but today it is a distraction from the real question - Flush or Swamped?

Major scum vibes from Christina. We've narrowed our search to two people and yet she wants to steer the conversation to the buddies and has floated the ridiculous Role Godfather hypothesis. No argument in favor of Swamped, just "I think they're both Hope." She wants to lynch one of the buddies because our role sounds good. All around, a half-hearted analysis.

Christina Mackenzie said:
I don't believe that there are 2 bulletproofs players because it sounds outrageous. I think everyone here has been blindsided by it since it plays to our advantage. We only have Makai's word that a second student even exists and it's all down to certain phrases in a post that no one else can see anything lucky about..
Click to expand...
Hello? Did you forget about Kingkitty? He not only claims to exist but agrees I'm his buddy and we're both Hope. Why are you guys targeting me anyway? I'd think you would be going after Kingkitty since Sawneeks cleared me for today. Is it because one of your comrades is trapped and your neck is next if they flip Despair?
 
Z

Zippedpinhead

Member
Makai said:
Nope.
Click to expand...

Ok, lucky buddy testing can wait.

Why are we still arguing? It sounds like we have five people who want to evict, we just aren't voting because we don't want to "turbo" evict them.

Outside of someone digging themselves a hole today in a defense of a despair person, what else can we learn by waiting all three days? (Serious question)

One of *splinters comments was to wait and take all the time available. Personally (and look at yesterday) all that does is flip the vote at the last second.
 
T

Terrabyte20xx

Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I agree with Zipped, at this point all waiting for the end is really going to do is hamper us at this point with circular reasoning. We already wasted yesterday, and I don't want to do that AGAIN, so let's just get on with it and PC engine this crap.

VOTE:Royal_Flush
 
M

Makai

Member
Zippedpinhead said:
Ok, lucky buddy testing can wait.

Why are we still arguing? It sounds like we have five people who want to evict, we just aren't voting because we don't want to "turbo" evict them.

Outside of someone digging themselves a hole today in a defense of a despair person, what else can we learn by waiting all three days? (Serious question)

One of *splinters comments was to wait and take all the time available. Personally (and look at yesterday) all that does is flip the vote at the last second.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I want to hammer tonight, but give me a chance to parse Flush's info dump. I leave work in a few hours.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
Zippedpinhead said:
Ok, lucky buddy testing can wait.

Why are we still arguing? It sounds like we have five people who want to evict, we just aren't voting because we don't want to "turbo" evict them.

Outside of someone digging themselves a hole today in a defense of a despair person, what else can we learn by waiting all three days? (Serious question)

One of *splinters comments was to wait and take all the time available. Personally (and look at yesterday) all that does is flip the vote at the last second.
Click to expand...

For me it was to allow everyone to get on and comment because of the difference in timezones. But now that everyone has at least commented and said something I am fine with a turbo vote. Going to give it a few more hours though, let people at work at least be able to get in their last minute thoughts.

Which reminds me. Crazy idea but with the way Christina, Swamped, and Royal are all kind of 'avoiding' voting for each other ( and casually deflecting to the lucky buddies ) it could be possible all 3 of them are Despair. If Royal is lynch, flips Despair, and the game keeps going it means we still have some scum to find so we are going to have to figure out our options here.
 
R

Royal_Flush

Member
Sawneeks said:
Which reminds me. Crazy idea but with the way Christina, Swamped, and Royal are all kind of 'avoiding' voting for each other ( and casually deflecting to the lucky buddies ) it could be possible all 3 of them are Despair. If Royal is lynch, flips Despair, and the game keeps going it means we still have some scum to find so we are going to have to figure out our options here.
Click to expand...

Worry about more important things. This is lost time.

In case you want to turbo me, this is my Makai analysis so far. I don't know if I can finish it today. My current impression (D1+D2) is that he is probably Neutral or indeed Hope (tough that makes like zero sense). I left out a lot more posts than with swamped because they neither stroke me as particular pro-town nor suspicious. I encourage everyone to look over them by themselves. In the light of my reading so far, I want to redact my statement to go after Makai (or kingkitty) before going after Swamped. I'm not so sure anymore about anything...

Remarkable posts made by Makai

DAY 0 (Before Role-PMs were sent)

84: Discourages people to disclose their role as it helps Mafia

DAY 1

431: Uses the phrase "I got super lucky"

445: Against D1 lynch

457: Slight elbow-bump with *Splinter

648: Suddenly is heavily against No lynch

783: Repeats Day 0 advice, suddenly again for no lynch

836: Shots against CzarTim and crab

902: Say he thinks CzarTim is Hope, Roleclaims (only name). Note that stupid letter game with the character name

DAY 2

1293: crab and CzarTim suspicious again, votes crab (over kgtrep)

1355: Defends his D1 no lynch vote

1430: should keep discussion on kgtrep vs. crab

1549 (and others in this region): Fight with crab

1730: Famous (?) Cassandra complex post

1808: "People associate anger with trustworthiness"

DAY 3
Click to expand...
 
R

Royal_Flush

Member
Meh, probably won't bother with the further in-depth analysis of Makai, I just can't find the motivation for it. Just look at his interactions with *Splinter in the first few days. Doesn't seem very coordinated to me, but I could be wrong. I advise everyone to go over it themselves.

Anyway:
vote: Swamped
 
M

Makai

Member
Christina, you need to vote. You and Kingkitty are the only ones who haven't voted, but he's made it clear who he intends to lynch:

kingkitty said:
In retrospect, I should have fought harder to save Rest, considering how much evidence I laid out that showed how often scum shat on him from Day 1.

But whatever, I already gave my reason for why I think Flush is the best target. Doesn't change today. I 100 percent intend to have his guts thrown into a toaster.
Click to expand...
 
S

Swamped

Banned
Royal_Flush said:
In the light of my reading so far, I want to redact my statement to go after Makai (or kingkitty) before going after Swamped. I'm not so sure anymore about anything...
Click to expand...

I know you've put in a lot of effort so I feel bad for saying this...but I feel this is the sort of statement a mafia in a bind would make. It feels like you're backing off Makai because he went hard about not lynching the Lucksters today. This non-committal statement makes me wary.
 
S

Sawneeks

Banned
kingkitty said:
vote:royal_flush

I'm getting the sense that everyone left had an opportunity to say what they wanted to say. I'm keeping my vote.
Click to expand...

vote:royal_flush

We aren't getting anywhere and we all seem to be in a relative majority as to who to Lynch. I'm starting to become fairly wary of Swamped but I'm still much more willing to lynch Royal first. I still feel it's either Swamped or Royal is our killer.
 
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