-
Hey, guest user. Hope you're enjoying NeoGAF! Have you considered registering for an account? Come join us and add your take to the daily discourse.
December 2016 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 10th
MatPiscatella
Member
Ever since I first played Pong when I was like 3, sure. I mean, to do okay in this kind of gig you kind of had to have spent a majority of your life playing and thinking about games and all this stuff.
Confession time though: I've never played a Final Fantasy game and can't get into Soulsborne. Although I keep trying.
That's cool. Thanks!
Incredibly happy with the news on FFXV. I'm curious what the split between PS4:XB1 ended up being. With it outselling Madden on Xbox like that it might not have been as dire as many predicted which is great news for people wanting to see JP games on Xbox. Really looking forward to seeing how all these Japanese games releasing this and next month favor.
Where on earth are you getting Pro numbers for November?
Where on earth are you getting Pro numbers for November?
NPD said that PS4 Pro sales are 18% of the PS4 total in nov/dec and we know that Pro sold 238k in december.
But this is an aproximation because 1.1m for PS4 in november is a rounded number, we don't know the exacly sales.
Thanks for the explanation. If it's an approximation a ~ should be used to indicate that imo.
Dec-2015 was 580K, so ~590K for Dec-2016. Just need a Wii U estimate from somewhere. (^_^)
onemanasylum
Banned
Any news about VR? Heard third parties and Sony were happy so far with the results but not sure that means anything.
slavesnyder
Member
You should buy American JRPGs anyway.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
Ok, there goes that idea^^ Man, this has been a weird year for predictions. Super happy about Final Fantasy XV though^^ Hoping for some more surprisingly positive software hits this quarter, as a lot of great Japanese games are hitting^^
slavesnyder
Member
Maybe it's not the right thread, but our sales intelligentia has it's go-to place here. So...
Does anyone know how The Tomorrow Children performed? Would be nice to see if it made money and recouped at least.
There wasn't much news or talk about this game and that's no good sign.
Does anyone know how The Tomorrow Children performed? Would be nice to see if it made money and recouped at least.
There wasn't much news or talk about this game and that's no good sign.
spatenfloot
Member
I haven't seen any GAF players since it was released. Seems like people kind of forgot about it.
Since not all the results are public, no numerical results are shown here. Also, rankings are just a counter, so if two people are tied, it isn't shown here.
NeoGAF Prediction Results - December 2016
Units
1. viHuGi
2. Kayant
3. jjonez18
4. KillerMan91
5. Bioshocker
6. Bruno MB
7. hanspampel
8. Elandyll
9. prag16
10. Javin98
11. orfax
12. jroc74
13. theprodigy
14. Pachter
15. Fdkn
16. GAF_Agg
17. archnemesis
18. mejin
19. Trust me, I'm a PhD
20. ZachzOOming
21. Sterok
22. RexNovis
23. allan-bh
24. Kill3r7
25. jayu26
26. Shizza
27. Opt1kon_
28. Stanng243
29. slavesnyder
30. Tratorn
31. Welfare
32. GifGafIsTheBestGaf
33. robo
34. skedar897
35. Nouzka
36. Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
37. Darth Smurf X
38. Prototype Viktor
39. Raylan
40. Rymuth
41. Bitch Pudding
42. Shock32
43. noobie
44. Cow Goes Moo
45. ethomaz
46. Primethius
47. donny2112
48. sirronoh
49. VectorVictor
50. Megadragon15
51. anothertech
52. perfectchaos007
53. astrogamer
54. freefornow
55. Las7
56. 5Twist
57. Chobel
58. Hydrargyrus
59. RibMan
60. blakep267
Points
Congratulations, viHuGi for the month and Tratorn for the year!
NeoGAF Prediction Results - December 2016
Units
1. viHuGi
2. Kayant
3. jjonez18
4. KillerMan91
5. Bioshocker
6. Bruno MB
7. hanspampel
8. Elandyll
9. prag16
10. Javin98
11. orfax
12. jroc74
13. theprodigy
14. Pachter
15. Fdkn
16. GAF_Agg
17. archnemesis
18. mejin
19. Trust me, I'm a PhD
20. ZachzOOming
21. Sterok
22. RexNovis
23. allan-bh
24. Kill3r7
25. jayu26
26. Shizza
27. Opt1kon_
28. Stanng243
29. slavesnyder
30. Tratorn
31. Welfare
32. GifGafIsTheBestGaf
33. robo
34. skedar897
35. Nouzka
36. Daphnes Nohansen Hyrule
37. Darth Smurf X
38. Prototype Viktor
39. Raylan
40. Rymuth
41. Bitch Pudding
42. Shock32
43. noobie
44. Cow Goes Moo
45. ethomaz
46. Primethius
47. donny2112
48. sirronoh
49. VectorVictor
50. Megadragon15
51. anothertech
52. perfectchaos007
53. astrogamer
54. freefornow
55. Las7
56. 5Twist
57. Chobel
58. Hydrargyrus
59. RibMan
60. blakep267
Points
Code:
December 2016 Overall 2016 Top (10/12)
01. viHuGi ---.-- Tratorn ---.-- * RexNovis ---.--
02. Kayant ---.-- KillerMan91 ---.--
03. KillerMan91 ---.-- RexNovis ---.--
04. jjonez18 ---.-- allan-bh ---.--
05. Bruno MB ---.-- Javin98 ---.--
06. Elandyll ---.-- Cow Goes Moo ---.--
07. Javin98 ---.-- Nouzka ---.--
08. Bioshocker ---.-- orfax ---.--
09. jroc74 ---.-- Bruno MB ---.--
10. Trust me, I'm a PhD ---.-- Welfare ---.--
11. Shock32 ---.-- Raylan ---.--
12. orfax ---.-- jayu26 ---.--
13. GifGafIsTheBestGaf ---.-- donny2112 ---.--
14. ZachzOOming ---.-- skedar897 ---.--
15. jayu26 ---.-- Chobel ---.--
16. hanspampel ---.-- archnemesis ---.--
17. mejin ---.-- noobie ---.--
18. Kill3r7 ---.-- Kayant ---.--
19. Fdkn ---.-- jjonez18 ---.--
20. Shizza ---.-- slavesnyder ---.--
21. Stanng243 ---.-- Shizza ---.--
22. archnemesis ---.-- Elandyll ---.--
23. skedar897 ---.-- ZachzOOming ---.--
24. Pachter ---.-- Trust me, I'm a PhD ---.--
25. Tratorn ---.-- Rymuth ---.--
26. Prototype Viktor ---.-- mejin ---.--
27. Raylan ---.-- Rand6 ---.--
28. Megadragon15 ---.-- Pachter ---.--
29. sirronoh ---.-- Fdkn ---.--
30. Darth Smurf X ---.-- Kill3r7 ---.--
31. slavesnyder ---.-- Sterok ---.--
32. prag16 ---.-- robo ---.--
33. noobie ---.-- jroc74 ---.--
34. robo ---.-- Darth Smurf X ---.--
35. Bitch Pudding ---.-- Megadragon15 ---.--
36. 5Twist ---.-- astrogamer ---.--
37. Rymuth ---.-- Primethius ---.--
38. anothertech ---.-- Ryng_tolu ---.--
39. Opt1kon_ ---.-- ethomaz ---.--
40. Las7 ---.-- theprodigy ---.--
41. theprodigy ---.-- Hydrargyrus ---.--
42. astrogamer ---.-- andy_lhc ---.--
43. Sterok ---.-- Bitch Pudding ---.--
44. allan-bh ---.-- Stanng243 ---.--
45. RexNovis ---.-- 5Twist ---.--
46. ethomaz ---.-- ConfusedGamer ---.--
47. Cow Goes Moo ---.-- Opt1kon_ ---.--
48. Welfare ---.-- gtj1092 ---.--
49. Primethius ---.-- GifGafIsTheBestGaf ---.--
50. Hydrargyrus ---.-- Bioshocker ---.--Congratulations, viHuGi for the month and Tratorn for the year!
Oh, Rex! :'(
Welfare
Member
Congratulations, viHuGi for the month and Tratorn for the year! At least I stayed in the top 10 this year.
Rounding to the nearest 10k
PS4 - 5090K
XB1 - 4730K
3DS - 2470K
WIU - ???K
I have LTD for Wii U at ~380K back in October and with the weird holiday season, can't really peg Wii U at anything without it being either too low or too high. XB1 and PS4 aren't that precise either since November was just rounded numbers to the closest 100K.
Rounding to the nearest 10k
PS4 - 5090K
XB1 - 4730K
3DS - 2470K
WIU - ???K
I have LTD for Wii U at ~380K back in October and with the weird holiday season, can't really peg Wii U at anything without it being either too low or too high. XB1 and PS4 aren't that precise either since November was just rounded numbers to the closest 100K.
Wanna go with 600K? We know Apr-Sept for Wii U was 220K.
Jan - 40K
Feb - 70K
Mar - 65K
Weekly Average: 13.5K
Apr-Sept - 220K
Weekly Average: 8.5K
Oct @ 8.5K per week - 34K
No promotions this year. No new shipments. Last year Nov was 4x October, but seems very unlikely this year. As a guess, maybe November doubled October and December doubled November?
Assume:
Nov ~= 2x Oct ~= 70K
Dec ~= 2x Nov ~= 140K
YTD => 640K, so bring it down to 600K?
Welfare
Member
Annual results up, then. (^_^)
For next year monthlies, it'll be PS4, XB1, and NSW (official acronym, apparently?). For annual, Scorpio comes into the equation. Due to no exclusive games (so not a new gen), leaning toward lumping Scorpio in with XB1 annual predictions. Thoughts on that?
For next year monthlies, it'll be PS4, XB1, and NSW (official acronym, apparently?). For annual, Scorpio comes into the equation. Due to no exclusive games (so not a new gen), leaning toward lumping Scorpio in with XB1 annual predictions. Thoughts on that?
slavesnyder
Member
Reasonable.
1) Scorpio should be treated like PS4pro, which is a PS4 with muscles.
2) If Scorpio misses it's release date and is shifted to 2018 (you never know) we avoid a switchuation.
Dash_Riprock
Member
I feel if Scorpio was in danger of missing its release date we would've heard some rumblings by now.
slavesnyder
Member
20th place is amazing. I did so well. I'm proud of myself.
Oh, and donny2112:
You were a great host throughout last year.
Oh, and donny2112:
You were a great host throughout last year.
Welfare
Member
Scorpio will be an Xbox One, so it should be lumped in with XB1. Same as PS4 Pro and PS4.
KillerMan91
Member
Damn. Third for december and second for whole year.
Damn, never thought I would end up fifth place for the whole year. Am I more credible in your eyes now, guys?
Just kidding. Glad to be back anyway. For my own sake, I'm going to start refraining from posting unnecessarily and post mostly in threads my buddies are in. All the best for this year's predictions, guys!
Just kidding. Glad to be back anyway. For my own sake, I'm going to start refraining from posting unnecessarily and post mostly in threads my buddies are in. All the best for this year's predictions, guys!
LastMinuteHero
Member
Oof glad you're back manDamn, never thought I would end up fifth place for the whole year. Am I more credible in your eyes now, guys?
Just kidding. Glad to be back anyway. For my own sake, I'm going to start refraining from posting unnecessarily and post mostly in threads my buddies are in. All the best for this year's predictions, guys!
Thanks! There were a few things I was itching to reply to and RE7 hype was hard to contain, haha.
Trust me. I'm a PhD
Member
After failing optimistic Gaf, I will accept 19th. And stayed in top 50 for the year!^^ As always, thank you, Donny^^ See you all next time for 2017!
Edit: Oh, snap! 10th for points and 24th for the whole year. Not too bad^^
Edit: Oh, snap! 10th for points and 24th for the whole year. Not too bad^^
hanspampel
Banned
Lol I'm #7 for the month? I did bad
Anyway I'm more interested in the yearly prediction that should be easier thanks to a border scale and less weird impacted months like last year November
2017 seems to become a very interesting year with ps4 pro and slim tandem now available for the full year.
Switch launch in march and Scorpio this fall.
Anyway I'm more interested in the yearly prediction that should be easier thanks to a border scale and less weird impacted months like last year November
2017 seems to become a very interesting year with ps4 pro and slim tandem now available for the full year.
Switch launch in march and Scorpio this fall.
Jarod McChicken
Member
If Abdiel and other retailers are passing by, I'm curious about what SKU of PS4 and Xbox One they are exactly sellng since the new year.
For example, on Amazon nobody is buying the Infinite Warfare bundle that everyone asked for, presumably because it's 299$ vs 270$ max for the U4 bundle. Also, since several days the PS4 Pro is in stock again we can see the SKU in the top 50.
As for Xbox, the Battlefield bundle remains the top SKU for the system, but the Minecraft bundle looks kinda low now. Also we know there will be a FH3 bundle soon.
So yeah in short, I'm curious to know what are exactly the SKU that are pushing both console in stores right now ?
For example, on Amazon nobody is buying the Infinite Warfare bundle that everyone asked for, presumably because it's 299$ vs 270$ max for the U4 bundle. Also, since several days the PS4 Pro is in stock again we can see the SKU in the top 50.
As for Xbox, the Battlefield bundle remains the top SKU for the system, but the Minecraft bundle looks kinda low now. Also we know there will be a FH3 bundle soon.
So yeah in short, I'm curious to know what are exactly the SKU that are pushing both console in stores right now ?
Actually cancel this. I don't like guessing. I prefer more objective methods, and putting up the 2017 annual thread reminded me that in 2014, the #1 predictor for each month with a missing public number was used. Therefore doing the same thing for 2016 ...
October #1:
5Twist had Wii U @ 20K
November #1:
blakep267 had Wii U @ 200K
December #1:
viHuGi had Wii U @ 50K
=>
Wii U annual results for predictions will be 665K. Redoing results.
theprodigy
Member
Actually cancel this. I don't like guessing. I prefer more objective methods, and putting up the 2017 annual thread reminded me that in 2014, the #1 predictor for each month with a missing public number was used. Therefore doing the same thing for 2016 ...
October #1:
5Twist had Wii U @ 20K
November #1:
blakep267 had Wii U @ 200K
December #1:
viHuGi had Wii U @ 50K
=>
Wii U annual results for predictions will be 665K. Redoing results.
but that's just ridiculous
Liabe Brave
Member
We have. An analyst from IHS Markit has said "...I think there is a fair chance it won't hit its current release window of the end of 2017 and will instead arrive in 2018."
A GAF member said that friends of his who work at the Microsoft campus told him Scorpio won't make holiday 2017. However, they do not work in the Xbox division.
Another GAF member (maybe SneakersSO?) said they know of some Scorpio news that would disappoint fans, but didn't clarify what that was. Might or might not be release timing.
Of course, this is all hearsay and/or conjectural. Personally, I think Scorpio will hit its launch date just fine. But there have been some "rumblings" to the contrary.
To be fair I just randomly chose 3ds and wiiu numbers. I really was only estimating the Xbox and PS4 numbers
slavesnyder
Member
MS would never release a product that's not finished just to hit a deadline.
The launch Xbox One was a paperweight until you installed the day one update, that's really close.
Another idea could be using the GAF prediction averages for numbers that are missing.
I think that is a joke about the 360 and rrod
S
Congratulations, viHuGi for the month and Tratorn for the year!
Thanks!
Never thought I would make it to one, since I was pretty bad the last two months.
Seems all the other top ranked users predicted even worse in those months.
And yes, congrats to viHuGi for the month!
:lol Ridiculous is fine. I'm trying to be formulaic about it and take subjective determinations out of the calculation. Using the #1 predictor each month at least has some objective determination that they were closest, overall, regardless of the closeness of any individual prediction. (^_^)
That's more of a random choice. No guarantee that GAF_Agg is close on anything in particular. #1 should theoretically have a better chance of being close to the value on a particular prediction than anyone else that month, since they were closest overall.
GifGafIsTheBestGaf
Member
wow, i didnt know the results were already posted. congrats on the winners and thanks donny for another year of NPD predictions.
this year is gonna be interesting
this year is gonna be interesting
I think that is a joke about the 360 and rrod
He got me then, lol