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[axisofweevils]

I think people need to define what success is.
I believe Splatoon will sell over 1 million.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Have any Bish verified retail folks commented on this games preorder performance? Seems like this has such little buzz, even on here outside of the Wii U owners.

Also I think the downloadable market has really hurt the price point of Splatoon and add to that that Nintendo has been so focused on the 4vs4 aspect. The perception of this game's cost versus the actual cost I feel is not lining up for many people. I don't blame them. Many griped that $60 for Titanfall being MP only was too steep. Imagine thinking this game was just 4 vs 4 MP only and it is $60. The single player talk was too little too late and requires a lot of word of mouth rather than Nintendo directly educating consumers.

 

[dcx4610]

Nope. It will have the success of a Wonderful 101 or Pikmin.

That said, I'm really proud of Nintendo for trying new IPs and the publicity behind Splatoon has been perfect.

Nintendo is kind of in a rebuilding phase in my eyes and everything they are doing now will lead to their success in the future. If the new IPs don't sale on the Wii U, they'll at least have the brand awareness and will have them in their back pocket for later devices.

Having Amiibos of Splatoon and other obscure characters I think is key. Since Amiibos are selling well, if people see characters they don't know, that will hopefully make them curious, learn about the games they are in and buy them.

 

[oni-link]

God I hope so, it's one of the only games I have pre-ordered in the last 5 years

It does something a lot of Nintendos other games don't do, it's a genre they have yet to really tackle, I can't see how it won't appeal to the kind of people that love Nintendo and their game design philosophy

If you like Nintendo games enough to buy a Wii U then surely this is the kind of thing that will excite you, new IP from Nintendo is not something that comes along that often, and while Mario and Zelda are great, it's nice to see something new

Though a lot of that would have also been true of the W101 and that bombed, and I don't think Pikmin 3 sold that well either

 

[wildfire]

I think people need to define what success is.
I believe Splatoon will sell over 1 million.

Some people have been giving hard numbers. I do wonder about those saying it will do as bad as W101 know how badly that game did.

This game is really hard to comp.
I would have to spend way too much energy to try and get my head around what I'd really believe it would sell.

Out of curiosity, those who are saying it's going to sell a couple million... What's the scope you're factoring? Is that like, global shipments + digital lifetime? Having trouble wrapping my head around that one

My scope is attach rate. Look at the library of Wii U multiplayer games and it's pretty limited. This game is fun, has godly connectivity and is the top selling genre.

Anything less than 15% attach rate even among the current fanbase would be a joke and there are already 9-10 million consoles sold so that's 1.5 million at minimum. The console should grow another 1-2 million by January considering past sales trends so hitting close to 2 million is reasonable. I on the other hand see it hitting higher numbers than that within 1 year.

 

[Hip Hop]

No, and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less than Wonderful 101. I just don't think an online only oriented type of new IP selling well on a Nintendo platform.

 

[Sparrowhawk]

Nope, and I doubt it'll sell much. I do not doubt, however, that it'll be hella fun.

 

[thefro]

This is a side topic worth discussing.

To me a killer app means a game sells consoles. Even though I see this game having a 20% attach rate I don't believe it will convince many people to buy a Wii U.

Finding precise sales figures by month is difficult.
When Mario Kart 8 came out Wii U sales seemed to have jumped by 250k compared to the same month in 2013.
When Smash came out sales didn't jump comparatively speaking but that's hard to do when the previous year had 3D World come out during the same monthly period.

I doubt we'll even see over 120k bump in June or August compared to last year's previous months.

If Nintendo is banking on this being a system seller they could be seriously disappointed.

With it being a new IP on a system that's underpowered compared to its competitors, it's going to take a while for word of mouth to spread. If it does end up moving a noticeable number of systems it'll be a slow burner.

I don't think you can expect that considering the current negatives surrounding the Wii U.

 

[Efren is G.O.A.T.]

Good question!

I think it could be a great seller for Nintendo and for them I hope it becomes big, but I highly doubt non-WiiU owners will run to buy that system for that one game.

We never know though.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Some people have been giving hard numbers. I do wonder about those saying it will do as bad as W101 know how badly that game did.

No, and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less than Wonderful 101. I just don't think an online only oriented type of new IP selling well on a Nintendo platform.

Lol, I think it will struggle to cross a million. If it does it will be because of heavy bundling. The marketing strategy I think should have been reversed, single player first then blow people away with multiplayer later.

 

[Terrell]

Have any Bish verified retail folks commented on this games preorder performance? Seems like this has such little buzz, even on here outside of the Wii U owners.

Also I think the downloadable market has really hurt the price point of Splatoon and add to that that Nintendo has been so focused on the 4vs4 aspect. The perception of this game's cost versus the actual cost I feel is not lining up for many people. I don't blame them. Many griped that $60 for Titanfall being MP only was too steep. Imagine thinking this game was just 4 vs 4 MP only and it is $60. The single player talk was too little too late and requires a lot of word of mouth rather than Nintendo directly educating consumers.

Uhhh, they announced a single player component to the game within the same day that the game was announced. It was the most asked question about the game at E3, and every news outlet covering the game answered it. How is that "too late", exactly?

 

[Crimson_Justice]

I really have no idea how this game will do. I feel like it will for sure hit a million, but it has the potential to do so much better. Maybe if Nintendo pushes the Wii U itself with advertisement and/or good bundles (possibly a small price drop?) for the next two or so months, that would get even more of those who are interested in Splatoon but don't have a Wii U to pick them up.

But, I really have no idea how people outside of GAF and some LPers are reacting to Splatoon, so who knows.

I am really excited for the future of this game, though. Whether they make it into a series or just give this one plenty of content updates, I'm looking forward to it. Can't wait to play!

 

[papercan55]

I've just finished the single player, still can't go online as server isn't up yet in uk.
there are more than enough amazing ideas in the single player alone to make this a big i.p for nintendo, there were many times throughout the campaign that i saw great and unique ideas which really baffled me haven't been done before.
if the multiplayer is as good as the single, and from what i've seen it looks better, then this is an instant major i.p
theres so many possibilities for this franchise moving forward and they clearly set it up for a sequel.

also big praise fro the mario galaxy like flying through the air, it's not as graceful as galaxy but it's nice to see it make some kind of return (i can't stop using it on the hub world)

all the enemies are amazing and have the typical nintendo charm, watching their faces and expressions when they loose sight of you is priceless.
I just wish the octostamp enemies left a more clear face imprint after leaping at you.

 

[oni-link]

I've just finished the single player, still can't go online as server isn't up yet in uk.
there are more than enough amazing ideas in the single player alone to make this a big i.p for nintendo, there were many times throughout the campaign that i saw great and unique ideas which really baffled me haven't been done before.
if the multiplayer is as good as the single, and from what i've seen it looks better, then this is an instant major i.p
theres so many possibilities for this franchise moving forward and they clearly set it up for a sequel.

all the enemies are amazing and have the typical nintendo charm, watching their faces and expressions when they loose sight of you is priceless.
I just wish the octostamp enemies left a more clear face imprint after leaping at you.

How long is the single player campaign?

 

[Terrell]

I've just finished the single player, still can't go online as server isn't up yet in uk.
there are more than enough amazing ideas in the single player alone to make this a big i.p for nintendo, there were many times throughout the campaign that i saw great and unique ideas which really baffled me haven't been done before.
if the multiplayer is as good as the single, and from what i've seen it looks better, then this is an instant major i.p
theres so many possibilities for this franchise moving forward and they clearly set it up for a sequel.

all the enemies are amazing and have the typical nintendo charm, watching their faces and expressions when they loose sight of you is priceless.
I just wish the octostamp enemies left a more clear face imprint after leaping at you.

So more 9s than 8s in the reviews? That will definitely make a difference if it's as highly rated as some of the best games on the system.

 

[Crimson_Justice]

I've just finished the single player, still can't go online as server isn't up yet in uk.
there are more than enough amazing ideas in the single player alone to make this a big i.p for nintendo, there were many times throughout the campaign that i saw great and unique ideas which really baffled me haven't been done before.
if the multiplayer is as good as the single, and from what i've seen it looks better, then this is an instant major i.p
theres so many possibilities for this franchise moving forward and they clearly set it up for a sequel.

all the enemies are amazing and have the typical nintendo charm, watching their faces and expressions when they loose sight of you is priceless.
I just wish the octostamp enemies left a more clear face imprint after leaping at you.

That's fantastic to hear. I've been avoiding the spoiler thread, so thanks for the spoiler-free opinions!

Is it just me and the fact that the game's not out yet, or does anyone else think it's just so fun to watch others play it?

 

[Mengy]

This is a side topic worth discussing.

To me a killer app means a game sells consoles. Even though I see this game having a 20% attach rate I don't believe it will convince many people to buy a Wii U.

Finding precise sales figures by month is difficult.
When Mario Kart 8 came out Wii U sales seemed to have jumped by 250k compared to the same month in 2013.
When Smash came out sales didn't jump comparatively speaking but that's hard to do when the previous year had 3D World come out during the same monthly period.

I doubt we'll even see over 120k bump in June or August compared to last year's previous months.

If Nintendo is banking on this being a system seller they could be seriously disappointed.

I don't know, Splatoon is something new. Gamers are getting tired of newer versions of Mario and Smash as it's all getting repetitive, but this is a new game with a fresh and unique spin on the FPS genre. And it seems to be well done to boot. This one might actually sell systems if Nintendo can get the word out.


Unfortunately their backwards polices towards "getting the word out" mechanisms like Youtube is only going to hurt themselves here, and right when they seriously need to get the word out most. It would be ideal if youtube exploded with lets plays and reviews of Splatoon, instead it's going to release with nary a peep at all. That will hurt this game's sales, a LOT.


As usual, Nintendo is their own worst enemy.

 

[Man-is-Obsolete]

Uhhh, they announced a single player component to the game within the same day that the game was announced. It was the most asked question about the game at E3, and every news outlet covering the game answered it. How is that "too late", exactly?

If the question had to be asked then that is a failure to inform consumers. The answer then to that question ends up being heard by far less people. Honestly I am on this board a lot and follow a lot of games, even if I don't plan to buy them and even I knew little to nothing about the single player till recently. Even then it felt like I was getting from sources like GameXplain.

 

[papercan55]

How long is the single player campaign?

i think it took me about 9 hours but i did replay a few levels as some of the scrolls are well hidden, honestly it's better than i expected as i presumed it would be a simple bonus like single player alongside the main multiplayer.
I should mention that as good as it is i do wish some of the levels had larger structures or more levels like the multiplayer ones, after a while the island hopping does get a little annoying because of the very cube like designs for the stages.
Some people might also breeze through the campaign in 5 or 6 hours but if your like me and enjoy exploring the stages and trying out new techniques then it will last longer, as i said i can't go online so the single player is all i can play so i've been practicing my jumping and movements a lot in some stages but i would say it's a good length campaign and one they clearly put a lot of effort into.

So more 9s than 8s in the reviews? That will definitely make a difference if it's as highly rated as some of the best games on the system.

I can't comment really as i can't go online, so no multiplayer and the shops kick me out for not being online.
If the single player is any indication then it should be rated very highly just for innovation and fun alone. though given dktf got a 6 from gamespot i have no idea how this will fare.

 

[Kid Ska]

I think the marketing push and the fact that it's in a more recognizable and popular genre will ensure that it sells better than Pikmin or W101. I'm not convinced it will gain the traction to become a major Nintendo staple, though.

 

[Terrell]

If the question had to be asked then that is a failure to inform consumers. The answer then to that question ends up being heard by far less people. Honestly I am on this board a lot and follow a lot of games, even if I don't plan to buy them and even I knew little to nothing about the single player till recently. Even then it felt like I was getting from sources like GameXplain.

So you don't watch Nintendo Directs, then? Like the one where they explicitly showed the single-player mode in action back in November, about 7 months ago. Yeah, you can just admit that you were paying absolutely zero attention, it's OK.

Unfortunately their backwards polices towards "getting the word out" mechanisms like Youtube is only going to hurt themselves here, and right when they seriously need to get the word out most. It would be ideal if youtube exploded with lets plays and reviews of Splatoon, instead it's going to release with nary a peep at all. That will hurt this game's sales, a LOT.


As usual, Nintendo is their own worst enemy.

Uhhh, this game was all over Twitch like a bad rash during every one of the testfires. Is Twitch somehow now excluded from methods to "get the word out" about games?

 

[Geg]

What's with people listing W101 and Pikmin 3 together as if Pikmin 3 didn't sell more than 5 times as much as W101 did?

Like make up your mind is it going to only kind of bomb or is it going to super bomb

 

[wildfire]

With it being a new IP on a system that's underpowered compared to its competitors, it's going to take a while for word of mouth to spread. If it does end up moving a noticeable number of systems it'll be a slow burner.

I don't think you can expect that considering the current negatives surrounding the Wii U.

The current negatives around the Wii U prevents people from buying the console.
That's why I think Splatoon will fail to be a killer app (a game you buy even if it means you have to get a new console to do so)


There is nothing wrong with Splatoon reaching a 15% attach rate with the existing audience and I personally expect it to do better than that at 20%+

15% attach rate makes 1.5 mil a reasonable target.

 

[NotLiquid]

Unfortunately their backwards polices towards "getting the word out" mechanisms like Youtube is only going to hurt themselves here, and right when they seriously need to get the word out most. It would be ideal if youtube exploded with lets plays and reviews of Splatoon, instead it's going to release with nary a peep at all. That will hurt this game's sales, a LOT.

While Nintendo's YouTube policies are backwards I don't think it's strictly true that it will release without a word. Just recently someone posted pictures of a GameStop that literally adorned itself in Splatoon aesthetics. One of the stores in my city set up roughly three billboards inside the store windows and outside of the store. At it's peak, Splatoon was also streamed to a bunch of viewers on Twitch (I think it was fourth most viewed game? I can't remember), and regular advertising prevails on those services, alongside YouTube, TV and Mad Max/Tomorrowland cinema screenings.

I do believe YouTube would help the word of mouth a lot though and I hope several major channels cover the game. It's really fun to play and really fun to watch. That said I don't think it's true that it's releasing with "no peep" at all. For once, this is one of the times Nintendo has really pushed a game and that's kind of unprecedented.

 

[twothunder]

Some people have been giving hard numbers. I do wonder about those saying it will do as bad as W101 know how badly that game did.

As for Wonderful 101
From what I gathered.
Creamsugar has it at 104K in the April 2015 NPD thread. (That´s after price cuts etc.)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=160467229&postcount=1252

In japan, It´s first week was 5,258
[Wii U] The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo, 08/22/13) – 5,258 (New)
http://www.destructoid.com/the-wonderful-101-s-sales-don-t-look-good-so-far-260892.phtml

In the end of 2013. It still didn´t show up in the top 200 of media create. So less than 42.606 LTD in Japan at that time
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=125783246&postcount=1

No idea about Europe.

But.. Yeah. It bombed.horribly

 

[wildfire]

So you don't watch Nintendo Directs where they explicitly showed the single-player mode in action back in November. Yeah, you can just admit that you were paying absolutely zero attention, it's OK.

Honestly other than e3 a direct doesn't cut it. That said Nintendo has been getting across that there is a single player component in their mass market ads.

 

[Simbabbad]

No, and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less than Wonderful 101.

Now you're getting silly.

What's with people listing W101 and Pikmin 3 together as if Pikmin 3 didn't sell more than 5 times as much as W101 did?

Also, this.

 

[Like the hat?]

I was surprised that I the various times I played the global test fire, I only ran in to one person who had the digital preorder.

 

[Impeccable]

People are seriously thinking this will do over 1 million?

I mean I know I'm probably underestimating the game but... that would genuinely surprise me.

 

[Bahlor]

I was surprised that I the various times I played the global test fire, I only ran in to one person who had the digital preorder.

Why would you preorder digitally if you can get the game even "cheaper" physically? Got my preorder for 44,99 EUR including the splatoon amiibo.

 

[Servbot24]

What's with people listing W101 and Pikmin 3 together as if Pikmin 3 didn't sell more than 5 times as much as W101 did?

Like make up your mind is it going to only kind of bomb or is it going to super bomb

Selling 5x W101 is still a bomb. It doesn't matter if you're a "super bomb" or a "kind of bomb" - either way you're a failure.

So you don't watch Nintendo Directs, then? Like the one where they explicitly showed the single-player mode in action back in November, about 7 months ago. Yeah, you can just admit that you were paying absolutely zero attention, it's OK.

It's not the customer's job to inform themselves. It's Nintendo's job to inform the customer. A Nintendo Direct from last year doesn't exactly cut it.

 

[kinggroin]

Not if it bombs

 

[Majestad]

Not if it bombs

No shit.

 

[SatoAilDarko]

i think it took me about 9 hours but i did replay a few levels as some of the scrolls are well hidden, honestly it's better than i expected as i presumed it would be a simple bonus like single player alongside the main multiplayer.
I should mention that as good as it is i do wish some of the levels had larger structures or more levels like the multiplayer ones, after a while the island hopping does get a little annoying because of the very cube like designs for the stages.
Some people might also breeze through the campaign in 5 or 6 hours but if your like me and enjoy exploring the stages and trying out new techniques then it will last longer, as i said i can't go online so the single player is all i can play so i've been practicing my jumping and movements a lot in some stages but i would say it's a good length campaign and one they clearly put a lot of effort into.


I can't comment really as i can't go online, so no multiplayer and the shops kick me out for not being online.
If the single player is any indication then it should be rated very highly just for innovation and fun alone. though given dktf got a 6 from gamespot i have no idea how this will fare.

Are there only 27 levels and scrolls to collect? Do the levels get longer and more difficult in the final two worlds? From what I've seen so far the early levels seem very short at like 5-6 minutes. It also seems very easy. Did you ever die in the game? And if so at what point?

People are seriously thinking this will do over 1 million?

I mean I know I'm probably underestimating the game but... that would genuinely surprise me.

I think it definitely has a chance for a million over its total lifetime. It won’t hit it this year but my prediction is that it'll be over 500,000 worldwide before the fall.

 

[-Horizon-]

Why would you preorder digitally if you can get the game even "cheaper" physically? Got my preorder for 44,99 EUR including the splatoon amiibo.

Only in Europe is the game cheaper.

 

[frankie_baby]

People are seriously thinking this will do over 1 million?

I mean I know I'm probably underestimating the game but... that would genuinely surprise me.

Yes, I'd expect it over a million in the first 2 months, probably even over 2 million when all is said and done

 

[NotLiquid]

I think it definitely has a chance for a million over its total lifetime. It won’t hit it this year but my prediction is that it'll be over 500,000 worldwide before the fall.

I'm still banking on it hitting 500k worldwide before the end of it's second week.

 

[frankie_baby]

Are there only 27 levels and scrolls to collect? Do the levels get longer and more difficult in the final two worlds? From what I've seen so far the early levels seem very short at like 5-6 minutes. It also seems very easy. Did you ever die in the game? And if so at what point?



I think it definitely has a chance for a million over its total lifetime. It won’t hit it this year but my prediction is that it'll be over 500,000 worldwide before the fall.

It'll hit 500k within 2 weeks, if not sooner

 

[Servbot24]

Yes, I'd expect it over a million in the first 2 months, probably even over 2 million when all is said and done

Not even Zelda is going to do that.

Edit: Nevermind, misread you

 

[E-phonk]

Nope. It will have the success of a Wonderful 101.

Based on pre-order data it is expected to debut higher than X did on WiiU. This means Splatoon is set to sell more in japan alone than W101 did worldwide.

500k worldwide in it's first 2 weeks sounds way more reasonable.
120k in japan, 250k in US and 140k in EU.

 

[jariw]

People are seriously thinking this will do over 1 million?

I mean I know I'm probably underestimating the game but... that would genuinely surprise me.

Less than 20% of the current sales figures of MK8, why not?

 

[Beelzebufo]

If Kid Icarus could do over a million, Splatoon can. Splatoon's reviews will probably end up just as polarizing, and it's considerably larger marketing push should make up for the smaller install base.

Kid Icarus was in Smash and on 3DS though, yeah?

 

[cooljeanius]

I think it will do well with the word of mouth, I can see the Miiverse folks going crazy with it.

The Miiverse folks are already going crazy with it! So many Splatoon posts, and it hasn't even been released yet... (not that I mind, mind you...)

 

[Simbabbad]

People are seriously thinking this will do over 1 million?

I mean I know I'm probably underestimating the game but... that would genuinely surprise me.

You don't really see what 1 million means. Wario Land : Shake It on Wii sold over 1 million, and it had zero hype, zero advertising, zero support, was in a genre that wasn't a high seller back then and nobody released on retail any more.

Wii U has a smaller user base but I'd be very surprised if it did under 1 million.

 

[Mengy]

People are seriously thinking this will do over 1 million?

I mean I know I'm probably underestimating the game but... that would genuinely surprise me.

Oh yeah, I feel that it will certainly sell at least one million. I think it will take a while to get there, but I've got a hunch that word of mouth on Splatoon is going to be very positive after release and that will drive sales long term, possibly even systems too.

 

[taps]

Preheating oven to 350ºF. This Crow Pie should be ready around June NPDs. Lock in those predictions now and don't spoil your meal kids!

 

[phanphare]

No, and I wouldn't be surprised if it sold less than Wonderful 101. I just don't think an online only oriented type of new IP selling well on a Nintendo platform.

hahaha

the W101 comparisons have to be satire now, right?

 

[PhoenixDark]

I expect Splatoon to fail miserably. As a concept, it's just flawed. Plain and simple. Children do not want to play first person shooters. It's been proven time and time again. The only way Nintendo can keep from going the way of SEGA is to produce games their primary audience wants to play. In my opinion, Nintendo made a huge mistake by letting Minecraft fall into the hands of Microsoft. Nintendo shouldn't make the same mistake twice. They should buy the Five Nights at Freddy's IP right now while they have the chance.

So why do they love Call Of Duty.

I don't expect it to be the next big thing simply because it's a new IP on a platform that isn't doing well, and also eschews basic FPS features like voice chat.

 

[Bisnic]

I'm expecting it to do just "decent" sales, not bombing, but not being a great hit either. Because it's on Wii U and, well, while the gameplay showed looks fun, I doubt it will keep people interested and hooked as long as Mario Kart or Smash Bros.

 

[Xenoboy]

I just got an e-mail a few minutes ago from Nintendo's Swedish distribution arm (Bergsala) advertising Splatoon and also advertising a tourney they'll be holding around several major Swedish cities in June, which will also be in my town.

For the record, this never happens. I can't remember the last time I ever got an e-mail from Bergsala advertising a game, let alone one that's seeing a sanctioned tourney push here. From Nintendo UK I get adverts all the time, but never one from Sweden. They didn't even send adverts out for Mario Kart or Smash.

I got that email too! I only saw the competition part of it. I'll be trying it again by then, then.