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[Aaron Strife]

I think it'll do enough to get a sequel

2 mil would be a dream

 

[John Harker]

Some people have been giving hard numbers. I do wonder about those saying it will do as bad as W101 know how badly that game did.



My scope is attach rate. Look at the library of Wii U multiplayer games and it's pretty limited. This game is fun, has godly connectivity and is the top selling genre.

Anything less than 15% attach rate even among the current fanbase would be a joke and there are already 9-10 million consoles sold so that's 1.5 million at minimum. The console should grow another 1-2 million by January considering past sales trends so hitting close to 2 million is reasonable. I on the other hand see it hitting higher numbers than that within 1 year.

15% is a pretty big achievement...
Especially in a stagnant market

 

[Terrell]

Honestly other than e3 a direct doesn't cut it. That said Nintendo has been getting across that there is a single player component in their mass market ads.

It's not the customer's job to inform themselves. It's Nintendo's job to inform the customer. A Nintendo Direct from last year doesn't exactly cut it.

Good thing that wasn't the first and only time that it was conveyed there was a single player campaign. It WAS brought up in every write-up of the game from E3, as the press was notified that it would include one, so this "too little too late" garbage is an excuse being made by people who honestly wrote the game off until the 11th hour and pretend like Nintendo wasn't keeping people informed just because they were genuinely not paying attention out of willful ignorance.

Seriously, the way you guys are making it sound, a company has only the very first announcement of a game to explain every detail of it. And if that's the case, the pre-rendered trailers with nothing even remotely resembling gameplay like Rise of the Tomb Raider and Uncharted 4 mean they could be absolutely anything. RotTR could be Lara sitting in a doctor's office the whole game, right? Who knows? Apparently no one ever will because they blew it with their very first announcement. Of course, this is hyperbole, but it's no more ridiculous than saying that the customer wasn't informed because you don't think widely-reported Nintendo Directs are sufficient. Because reasons.

Bringing up Titanfall to make a point that people will somehow assume there's no single player when it's the only shooter in the past 10 years NOT to have a single player campaign in some form or another is ridiculous cherry-picking crap.

 

[plebegamer]

How do people feal about COMG as an indicator?

Pikmin final day: 72 points
Pikmin First Wk: 92,720 sold on MC

Super Mario 3D World final day: 66 points
Super Mario 3D World First Wk: 99,588 sold on MC

Xenoblade Chronicles X final day: 69 points
Xenoblade Chronicles X First Wk: 85,586 sold on MC

Splatoon currently sits at 137 points with 2 more days to go.

Over the weekend it eared 19 and 26 points, an unheard of number for a new IP in Japan, especially on a home console. Nintendo IPs usually have a ratio well over 1:1,000 as seen by those games. I think only 2 games on the Wii U have done done a point to sales ratio of less than 1:1,000 (NSMBU and FFV). At this point, it would have to be an unprecedented reversal of trends established over years for it to do as low as any of those games, the ratio would have to be roughly half that of every Nintendo IP. 100k first week in Japan alone is pretty much a lock.

This game is set to sell more like New Super Mario Bros. U than Pikmin 3. They're also trickling free content out over time to keep people invested. We might see it as witholding content or putting out an incomplete game, but most casuals are going to see it as a lot of free stuff.

Nintendo has been pushing Splatoon like crazy. Have any of you sat down at "ye olde teevee" to watch any program on a kids station? Nickelodeon has like 3 Splatoon commercials every break. I've seen more Splatoon commercials in the past few days than I've seen Nintendo related commercials since that "Wii would like to play" campaign they used to push the Wii. There have been several directs with it, it has extensive game play footage, there have been 4 opportunities for the public to get hands on with the game, the media loves it, it had a manga insert in one of the largest manga serials for Japanese children, retailers are pushing it with free swag, it has its own set of amiibo, it is getting some sort of Smash representation, and several Splatoon live events/tournaments have happened/been announced.

It's time to accept that Nintendo has a hit on their hands, and they're going out of their way to foster its success with the largest advertising campaign they've had in the better part of a decade.


If you haven't had your hands on the game, I really don't blame you for not having faith in it. As for me, I've played it and it jammed a Koolaid iv right into my damn veins. I've already stated in several places that I think it's the next step up in the shooter genre. Within a couple matches you should be able to feel that, unless you're just bad at gaming: Even if it doesn't go absolute gangbusters, Splatoon has ideas that should change the genre, if other developers aren't absolutely petrified at the thought of change.

 

[killatopak]

Only if it does well.

 

[Deleted member 752119]

I doubt it. I loved the testfire and immediately bought and preloaded the digital version.

But it seems destined to at best be a Pikmin level low-second tier franchise. Especially since the base is already limited by the small Wii U base.

On the otherhand, Wii U owners tend to be pretty diehard Nintendo fans and many are pretty starved for games with not much of note out since Smash, Zelda getting delayed etc. So that could help sales from now through the holidays depending what else they announce at E3.

 

[Toxi]

Honestly, I hope it will be. It's very unique among the types of IPs they own with its TPS gameplay and urban punk style.

 

[pants]

Only if it does well.

That's kinda the question this thread is asking innit?

 

[superbank]

At least 1 million lifetime sales. (Potential for 1.5 - 2 million.)
Popularity and sales justify sequel on next console.
Inkling added to the Smash series as a playable character.
Possibly in the Top 5 of Wii U sales.

Does anyone know how much W101 and Bayonetta 2 have currently sold? If I missed it in this big thread please point out the post. Thanks.

 

[Majestad]

How do people feal about COMG as an indicator?

Pikmin final day: 72 points
Pikmin First Wk: 92,720 sold on MC

Super Mario 3D World final day: 66 points
Super Mario 3D World First Wk: 99,588 sold on MC

Xenoblade Chronicles X final day: 69 points
Xenoblade Chronicles X First Wk: 85,586 sold on MC

Splatoon currently sits at 137 points with 2 more days to go.

Over the weekend it eared 19 and 26 points, an unheard of number for a new IP in Japan, especially on a home console. Nintendo IPs usually have a ratio well over 1:1,000 as seen by those games. I think only 2 games on the Wii U have done done a point to sales ratio of less than 1:1,000 (NSMBU and FFV). At this point, it would have to be an unprecedented reversal of trends established over years for it to do as low as any of those games, the ratio would have to be roughly half that of every Nintendo IP. 100k first week in Japan alone is pretty much a lock.

This game is set to sell more like New Super Mario Bros. U than Pikmin 3. They're also trickling free content out over time to keep people invested. We might see it as witholding content or putting out an incomplete game, but most casuals are going to see it as a lot of free stuff.

Nintendo has been pushing Splatoon like crazy. Have any of you sat down at "ye olde teevee" to watch any program on a kids station? Nickelodeon has like 3 Splatoon commercials every break. I've seen more Splatoon commercials in the past few days than I've seen Nintendo related commercials since that "Wii would like to play" campaign they used to push the Wii. There have been several directs with it, it has extensive game play footage, there have been 4 opportunities for the public to get hands on with the game, the media loves it, it had a manga insert in one of the largest manga serials for Japanese children, retailers are pushing it with free swag, it has its own set of amiibo, it is getting some sort of Smash representation, and several Splatoon live events/tournaments have happened/been announced.

It's time to accept that Nintendo has a hit on their hands, and they're going out of their way to foster its success with the largest advertising campaign they've had in the better part of a decade.


If you haven't had your hands on the game, I really don't blame you for not having faith in it. As for me, I've played it and it jammed a Koolaid iv right into my damn veins. I've already stated in several places that I think it's the next step up in the shooter genre. Within a couple matches you should be able to feel that, unless you're just bad at gaming: Even if it doesn't go absolute gangbusters, Splatoon has ideas that should change the genre, if other developers aren't absolutely petrified at the thought of change.

This makes it sound like the game will sell extremely good in Japan, specially for a new IP.

 

[The Albatross]

Some people have been giving hard numbers. I do wonder about those saying it will do as bad as W101 know how badly that game did.

What did W101 end up selling?

 

[Neoxon]

At least 1 million lifetime sales. (Potential for 1.5 - 2 million.)
Popularity and sales justify sequel on next console.
Inkling added to the Smash series as a playable character.
Possibly in the Top 5 of Wii U sales.

Does anyone know how much W101 and Bayonetta 2 have currently sold? If I missed it in this big thread please point out the post. Thanks.

What did W101 end up selling?

I may be wrong, so if anyone wants to correct me, go ahead. I believe these are as of March 2015.

• The Wonderful 101: 0.32 million
• Bayonetta 2: 0.67 million

I'm guessing that the unanimous praise for Bayonetta 2 helped it in the sales department.

 

[superbank]

I may be wrong, so if anyone wants to correct me, go ahead. I believe these are as of March 2015.

• The Wonderful 101: 0.32 million
• Bayonetta 2: 0.67 million

Thanks. Wow yeah, it's not doing W101 numbers for sure. It will definitely pass Bayo 2 as well.

 

[Geg]

I may be wrong, so if anyone wants to correct me, go ahead. I believe these are as of March 2015.

• The Wonderful 101: 0.32 million
• Bayonetta 2: 0.67 million

I'm guessing that the unanimous praise for Bayonetta 2 helped it in the sales department.

This post linked earlier had W101 at 104K and Bayo 2 at 157K. Unless those numbers were for something very specific and I'm missing something

 

[AdanVC]

As for Wonderful 101
From what I gathered.
Creamsugar has it at 104K in the April 2015 NPD thread. (That´s after price cuts etc.)
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=160467229&postcount=1252

In japan, It´s first week was 5,258
[Wii U] The Wonderful 101 (Nintendo, 08/22/13) – 5,258 (New)
http://www.destructoid.com/the-wonderful-101-s-sales-don-t-look-good-so-far-260892.phtml

In the end of 2013. It still didn´t show up in the top 200 of media create. So less than 42.606 LTD in Japan at that time
http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=125783246&postcount=1

No idea about Europe.

But.. Yeah. It bombed.horribly

YIKES!! Those numbers are absolutely disastrous... Worst performance for a new IP in home consoles in recent year perhaps? No way Splatoon is gonna bomb like TW101.

 

[Neoxon]

This post linked earlier had W101 at 104K and Bayo 2 at 157K. Unless those numbers were for something very specific and I'm missing something

I think the numbers I found were worldwide while those were for a specific region (likely North America).

EDIT: Checked the number for STEAM, it's definitely just North America.

 

[foxuzamaki]

I may be wrong, so if anyone wants to correct me, go ahead. I believe these are as of March 2015.

• The Wonderful 101: 0.32 million
• Bayonetta 2: 0.67 million

I'm guessing that the unanimous praise for Bayonetta 2 helped it in the sales department.

I'm pretty sure someone gave a update on bayo 2 and said it was at 200 or something.

 

[Geg]

I think the numbers I found were worldwide while those were for a specific region (likely North America).

EDIT: Checked the number for STEAM, it's definitely just North America.

Yeah that's what I figured but 104K for NA and 320K worldwide seemed weird to me. If the W101 only sold that much in NA I don't see it selling 200K elsewhere especially considering how little it sold in Japan

 

[Jaded Alyx]

I don't expect it to be the next big thing simply because it's a new IP on a platform that isn't doing well, and also eschews basic FPS features like voice chat.

And first-person shooting.

 

[The Jackdog]

if wonderful 100 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

 

[Spaceking]

Not right now, but I can see it growing over time. Maybe Splatoon 2 will be more successful.

 

[Neoxon]

Yeah that's what I figured but 104K for NA and 320K worldwide seemed weird to me. If the W101 only sold that much in NA I don't see it selling 200K elsewhere especially considering how little it sold in Japan

It's been out for almost 2 years. I could see it selling that much in the rest of the world combined.

 

[Neoxon]

if wonderful 101 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

Did you see the sales for both? Nintendo would have had to actively ignore Splatoon for it to sell like The Wonderful 101 did.

As I've said before, Nintendo doesn't give Amiibos to franchises they think will bomb.

Spoiler

Another one for the pile.

 

[IronicSonic]

As major as marketing muscle Nintendo is pushing

EA knows it
Ubi knows it
Acti knows it.

It's basically the only way to sell a new IP and almost every AAA game in retail space. More exposure, more sells

 

[Jaded Alyx]

if wonderful 100 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

Well...they're not really. Neither had anything close to the amount of exposure and marketing that Splatoon has had.

 

[wildfire]

Based on pre-order data it is expected to debut higher than X did on WiiU. This means Splatoon is set to sell more in japan alone than W101 did worldwide.

500k worldwide in it's first 2 weeks sounds way more reasonable.
120k in japan, 250k in US and 140k in EU.

How do people feal about COMG as an indicator?

Pikmin final day: 72 points
Pikmin First Wk: 92,720 sold on MC

Super Mario 3D World final day: 66 points
Super Mario 3D World First Wk: 99,588 sold on MC

Xenoblade Chronicles X final day: 69 points
Xenoblade Chronicles X First Wk: 85,586 sold on MC

Splatoon currently sits at 137 points with 2 more days to go.

Over the weekend it eared 19 and 26 points, an unheard of number for a new IP in Japan, especially on a home console. Nintendo IPs usually have a ratio well over 1:1,000 as seen by those games.

Nintendo has been pushing Splatoon like crazy. Have any of you sat down at "ye olde teevee" to watch any program on a kids station? Nickelodeon has like 3 Splatoon commercials every break. I've seen more Splatoon commercials in the past few days than I've seen Nintendo related commercials since that "Wii would like to play" campaign they used to push the Wii. There have been several directs with it, it has extensive game play footage, there have been 4 opportunities for the public to get hands on with the game, the media loves it, it had a manga insert in one of the largest manga serials for Japanese children, retailers are pushing it with free swag, it has its own set of amiibo, it is getting some sort of Smash representation, and several Splatoon live events/tournaments have happened/been announced.

It's time to accept that Nintendo has a hit on their hands, and they're going out of their way to foster its success with the largest advertising campaign they've had in the better part of a decade.

Splatoon has ideas that should change the genre, if other developers aren't absolutely petrified at the thought of change.

Some nice points brought up. The preorders already make everyone who said W101 sales level look foolish.

Yeah I've seen the Nick commercials. Nintendo has been very aggressive at marketing towards children. I wonder though what the buying habits are like for other parents. Summer is coming and I would rather spend money on a nice vacation and summer programs than a new console. Hopefully for Nintendo's sakes the interest and attention holds all the way till Black Friday/Holiday's season.

 

[PooBone]

I don't, after Saturday's little online demo experience. It's fun but there's no way it's gonna latch on with the likes of Zelda or Mario attachment.

EDIT: Yeah, 2 million on the Wii U's install base sounds like a pipe dream.

 

[Neoxon]

I don't, after Saturday's little online demo experience. It's fun but there's no way it's gonna latch on with the likes of Zelda or Mario attachment.

EDIT: Yeah, 2 million on the Wii U's install base sounds like a pipe dream.

Nobody's expecting it to catch on like Mario & Zelda immediately. I'm sure it will come close after a sequel & the inevitable inclusion of the Inklings as playable characters in Smash.

 

[PooBone]

Nobody's expecting it to catch on like Mario & Zelda immediately. I'm sure it will come close after a sequel & the inevitable inclusion of the Inklings as playable characters in Smash.

Of course not. I don't expect it to do it longterm either. Maybe I'm wrong and honestly I'd be happy if I am.

 

[phanphare]

if wonderful 100 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

they're not

 

[Javier]

All I know is that regardless of what happens, the amount of crow served will be massive.

Probably the largest since Super Mario 3D World Trailer #2.

 

[Principate]

TBF a Zelda Musou managed to sell 1 million copies a musou. While it'll be tough with the marketing campaign it's having, I wouldn't consider it far from impossible especially with the strong preorders in Japan (third highest preorders for a wii u title).

 

[JCX]

I really hope this marketing push works not only for Splatoon's sake, but also so future new IPs can have a similar push. I'd love XCX to get even half this promo ahead of its NA launch.

 

[Circinus]

Just like, I mentioned in my old post here, I expect a decent amount of sales (750 000 or something) and I think it can reach 1 million.

Seems like this game already has a decent cult following (some of the fan art is really great ) and the game seems to resonate very well with the enthuasist Wii U fan audience.

 

[atr0cious]

All I know is that regardless of what happens, the amount of crow served will be massive.

Probably the largest since Super Mario 3D World Trailer #2.

But will this crow translate into sales?

 

[Rival]

It will probably be an awesome game that no one will play. Just like a lot of wiiu games unfortunately.

 

[DrWong]

But will this crow translate into sales?

Math broken. It's the other way: sales generate crows :]

 

[checkeredknight]

I'm looking forward to Splatoon, but I can't see it shifting impressive numbers. Here's hoping though.

 

[timetokill]

No, I get why it broke in the one hour - that definitely fits with overdemand. What I don't get is why it didn't ease up over time in that first hour, yet was absolutely rock-solid in that second backup hour.

Nintendo could've been testing a smaller server batch to see how well it held up to demand. Alternatively, it could've been some bad code that they had pushed, and subsequently rolled back so that the second hour ran on older (proven functional) code.

I was surprised that I the various times I played the global test fire, I only ran in to one person who had the digital preorder.

I got the physical version from Amazon. With the storage situation on Wii U I generally avoid buying disc-available games digitally.

 

[TheGreatMightyPoo]

if wonderful 100 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

This is made by Nintendo, it's pick-up-and-play though deep at the same time and it has cute "hip" characters.

Comparing those to this doesn't make sense at all.

 

[Terrell]

Some nice points brought up. The preorders already make everyone who said W101 sales level look foolish.

They already looked foolish.

 

[HawthorneKitty]

Girls Mode 3 getting Splatoon clothing :O

https://twitter.com/SplatoonJP/status/603417434846990336/photo/1

 

[Neoxon]

Since going back to Page 14 to update the list is getting old, I'll just post it here so I can update it regularly without having to search through the thread.

I am expecting slightly better sales than wonderful 101. So no, not a major new IP.

It'll bomb.

It doesn't have Mario in it so I don't expect it to do very well.

It's on Wii U.

So no.

I honestly expect it to flop...

I hope that in wrong though

You mean the next major Nintendo bomba?

Of course not. I'll be amazed if it reaches 1 million.

I mean, did you expect Codename S.T.E.A.M. to be the next big Nintendo IP? The Wonderful 101?

I'm expecting Wonderful 101 levels of bomb.

I expect it to sell around the same as the wonderful 101. At very, very best pikmin 3. And that's me being optimistic. So no I don't think it will.

I'll be legit surprised if this game doesn't bomb. I guess we'd have to discuss what constitutes a bomb though considering the low user base. I should be clear though that the base isn't the reason I think it will bomb. I just don't think the game has a lot of appeal.

But yeah what is considered a bomb in sales for the wii u in terms of numbers.

we? What is neogaf, legion?

personally, no, I don't think so, but i wouldn't be shocked

I doubt it.

I'd be nice if it sold well because I allways like new Nintendo Ip's doing well.
But I don't see it appealing to that many people with it being a shooter focusing on online play on the WiiU. Even the Mario Kart online community got smaller after a few months (before the DLC), and that's was Mario Kart. Also, even kids that play online like basic online features like chat.

I have a WiiU and like it quite a bit, but I have no interest in Splatoon

I doubt it will do well.

This is a game for:

- shooter fans
- that dont need blood
- that dont mind "kiddy" looks
- that dont need voicechat
- that own a Wii U

Yep

Maybe about as well as wonderful 101

No it's going to flop. But it will be marketed by Nintendo as the next big one though.

I figure it's going to be a cult classic. Might not even sell enough to warrant a sequel.

Honestly I'm not even sure there is a market for Splatoon. A lot of young kids these days are already playing Call of Duty and talking all kinds of random shit online. I think Mario Kart and Smash are still so popular because you cant find anything as good elsewhere and I don't see Splatoon being able to pull away the younger generation from the already established shooters.

I could of course be horribly wrong but the market just seems so volatile these days.

A major IP that will unfortunately not sell well.

You might see an Inkling as a Assist Trophy in Smash 5

That's about it

I hope the game succeeds, but I'm betting it's gonna bomb. Shooter fans and cartoony squids splooging ink everywhere is something I would not fund if I were a businessman.

It looks awesome, but unfortunately I don't see it selling all that well. The Wii U market is just too small, it would need a pretty crazy attach rate for a new IP to warrant a sequel.

I think it'll be a one-and-done series.

Its totally going to flop. It doesnt have anything the mainstream audience want.

lol, no.

If it's any consolation, though, it will do better than Wonderful 101.

i expect it to bomb

Nah I expect it to be the next Wonderful 101

Majority of Nintendo fans will ignore it because Mario and co. ain't there

You can advertise something no one is really interested in as much as you want, people still won't buy it.

Personally I don't think so. I feel like they are coming a few years too late to the shooter game. I know that the game is somewhat unique from other shooters, but will it be a powerhouse to move consoles? I doubt it.

It will probably do average-ok first week sales, then disappear into the vortex of forgotten games hovering somewhere above its epicenter at Konami.

I'm not sure it will sell better than Bayonetta 2.

Really can't see it sadly.

Its not going to sell hardware. So its only whomever is playing wii-u now. There really is nothing else like it on the system so that will help. Pikman, Bayo and 101 is probably where is sits in sales. This month they really need to push the campaign part of this game or sales will be worse. Wii-u base is not multiplayer type in general. This really has the a good chance to tank. At best its a moderate success. The bar is pretty low.

I wish it was.
But I also wish to win the lottery.

I really do not see this doing well, but who knows, kids might go nuts over it.

It's going to bomb.

They're doing a Splatoon tour I think but I doubt it's going to do much for them. I'm going to wait for a price drop before picking it up.

I'm thinking it will be a light flop. Not terrible but it's not going to do all that well.

I think it'll bomb pretty hard. Not quite 101 bad, but close.

It's a Wii U game that doesn't have Mario, Zelda or Smash in the title. It could be the best game ever. It's still going to bomb. Best case scenario it becomes the Wii U's Tearaway.

At this point I'm in the camp that believes the game will bomb

I think sales wise it will do poorly.

It is not going to attract gamers from PS4/Xbone to get a WiiU to play this. There are WAY more games on those systems that are much more feature rich. Also it doesn't seem very competitive, and more "fun for everyone!" type of game.

I think there is a big deal for this game because its a first for a Nintendo IP to be a "shooter".

Considering how much of the Nintendo fanbase I've encountered over the years that loudly dismissed shooters and online play, I don't really expect it to do all that well, even among Nintendo's diehard crowd.

I predict a bomba, but I hope I'm wrong. Love the artstyle and the amiibos.

Also while the game looks good enough and appears to be fun, I think that it's not my thing. I'm probably not buying this or leaving it to the future.

It's launching on the Wii U...you honestly think it has a chance?

No.

I doubt it. I reckon it'll hit a couple of hundred thousand tops, lifetime. The super-core Nintendo crowd keeping the Wii U on life support will make some noise about it, as they are now.

Nope. It'll get lukewarm sales at best and be forgotten about.

I think it'll be a total bust, but those couple of months the playerbase sticks around are going to be a pretty sweet ride down.

I don't think so. It doesn't seem to babe enough new about it to make it hit and its launching on Wii u this hampering the ability of it to find a large audience.

I feel this game is gonna bomb... don't want it too.. but just feel like it's gonna bomb.. badly.

I was going to type the same exact thing.
At this point the only games on the Wii U I see selling very well are Mario and Zelda games. That's about it.

It will bomb, its a multiplayer game with no voice chat...

no new IPs could ever hope to become major on the WiiU, even less so a game like Splatoon. 200k LT ww tops is my prediction, and that will already be considered a sort of success

I don't expect it to be a major IP. It will probably be niche. Doubt that a sequel will be made either.

A shooter that's geared towards a shooter audience that doesn't buy shooter games? Yep this will be a definite bomb.

W101 was marketed in the UK both on prime time tv and in print. Splatoon hasn't had anything here yet, not even in the likes of the specialist retailers.

I dunno how well it's being marketed in the US or other parts of Europe but I can easily see an enormous bomb in the UK.

Expecting it to bomb big time.

Splatoon probably won't sell very well, I just hope it is as awesome as some of the other underachieving Wii U games. Hopefully the upcoming direct will get people more interested. I hope Nintendo go into more detail about the single player, its looking kind of bland right now.

I think it's going to go the way of W101.

I don't want it to, but it seems like everyone "the hype is real!" on GAF it's like dooming a game early.

I hope not though, it looks cool.

I don't think it'll sell very well. The name "Splatoon" + sort of pictures of paintball just looks kind of shovelware or mini-game like at first glance. I just think it's a hard sell unless you really market it hard, and Nintendo won't.

It's releasing on the wii U which is basically dead at this point. Even on a successful console this looks like it would be a niche game but on the wii U is be pretty shocked if t wasn't.

Hoping that isn't the case but I don't like the games chances.

I'm expecting something beetween Wonderfull 101 and Pikmin 3 sales.
Nintendo is going to advertise it because they don't have anything else for middle of 2015.

small potatoes

I hope it does well, but I doubt it.
No matter how well shooters gameplay feels natural to Nintendo's motion controllers, they have a history of failing on their recent consoles.

Remember Red Steel and The Conduit ?

PS: Can anyone help me find infos on the in-game rewards for each of the different Splatoon amiibos ? I can't find it online, and I need to know what to buy.
Also, will those rewards be exclusive or can they be unlocked even without the amiibos ?

Thanks !

this. Population meeting this profile must not be large imo.

I don't know how long it will last. Might burn out quick from it, hopefully I'm wrong though.

Seems like a flop in the making.

I think it'll bomb as well. I don't see it doing well.

I don't.

No.

It has Saturday morning cartoon charm. Maybe 'Ubisoft appealing to children' charm. Based on what I've seen it doesn't have Nintendo charm, not nearly.

Game won't break 500k worldwide.

Would bet my Wii U along all my Wii U games it will.

I don't.

Nintendo is incapable of creating and maintaining new mega-IPs, for the possible exception of Wii Sports. Wii Fit? Dead. Nintendogs/cats? Dead. Brain Age? Dead. They reserve their AAA efforts and resources on old mascots, then they wonder why those are the only games that sell.

Splatoon doesn't even have a good local co-op feature. 1vs1? WTF. Nintendo is suffering from some sort of identity crisis this generation. On one hand, they want to resurrect the local/family multiplayer experience, but on the other hand they're pushing new IPs that don't bring such experiences to households.

Hard to give birth to a new major IP on Wii U, it's a private circle for best selling titles. If we see the characters in Smash, though.. there could be a chance. Personally, I don't think so.

I honestly expect it to do about as well as the W101, inside the Nintendo bubble it may seem like the next big thing though...

Seeing as how i'm not Japanese nor "in the know" of said market, i was unaware of this...

Advertising can only get you that far when the game that you're advertising doesn't cater to the general masses.


I'm not "having fun" here, i'm only answering to the question in the OP... i don't see it becoming Nintendo's next big franchise at all, maybe it's next Pikmin perhaps?...

The idea is cool and all, but no way this will be considered a hit sales wise.

I honestly think it is going to be underwhelming. At Christmas this year, for kids who already have a PS4/X1, Wii Us may sell (especially if Zelda is on the horizon). But the problem is there is too much out there to pick up with it (MK8, Tropical Freeze, NSMBU, SM3DW, Smash), so it is likely to get grazed over on the shelf for other games by new console purchasers. I just don't see it taking off. I'm not a fan of these type of things, either, so I know I'm out on it. I imagine many others won't drop the cash for it, either. Especially with Witcher recently and Batman coming in a couple weeks.

I expect this to bomb and bomb hard.

no 4 player split screen killed it for me.

Of all the things that Nintendo could do to get back in the game, a third person shooter isn't it, no matter how creative it is.

Splatoon looks really fun (I kinda regret refusing to play it at E3), and would be great if it was a major success, but I kinda doubt it. Among other reasons, I hear the single player mode is like 3 hours long. No bueno.

The game is going to be the industries first Tsar Bomba

Prepare yourself for disappointment

It would have a greater chance to become a long-running IP if Nintendo released it on the 3DS instead or simultaneously.

With the Wii U, there is a greater chance that something like Splatoon will just be a one-off on a failure of a console.

I'm expecting it to be considered a sales flop after ~3 months.

I really want it to do well but I don't think it has a chance. Maybe if it was released on 3DS as well.

I expect Splatoon to fail miserably. As a concept, it's just flawed. Plain and simple. Children do not want to play first person shooters. It's been proven time and time again. The only way Nintendo can keep from going the way of SEGA is to produce games their primary audience wants to play. In my opinion, Nintendo made a huge mistake by letting Minecraft fall into the hands of Microsoft. Nintendo shouldn't make the same mistake twice. They should buy the Five Nights at Freddy's IP right now while they have the chance.

Lol no way this game is gonna sell well. I doubt it will reach the 1 mil worldwide. I don't expect many people to be interested in this game with the way it looks.

I see them staying on the assist trophy level of Nintendo franchises, but I would love to be proven wrong.

No.

It lacks magic... just kinda seems like a Mario Party mini-game they decided to try and monetize.

Saw ads for this game in front of all the movies we've seen lately at Cinemark. It looks insanely stupid and the most kid-made game ever from Nintendo.

I don't see it making big success, not on Wii U anyway.

I'm really intrigued as to what happens with this franchise. I'd like to see anything Nintendo attempt do well but nothing is really clicking. This will probably go the way of Bayonetta 2, TW101, and Pikmin 3.

i own a wii u and have absolutely zero interest in this game, don't get the hype on here. expecting it to perform poorly and don't expect many people will be talking about it a couple of months after release.

I guess my expectation is that this game will not have a sequel so whatever the sales numbers are, they will not be large enough for Nintendo to continue the franchise.

I don't.

if wonderful 100 and bayonetta 2 are any indicators, its gonna have a rough ride.

I don't, after Saturday's little online demo experience. It's fun but there's no way it's gonna latch on with the likes of Zelda or Mario attachment.

EDIT: Yeah, 2 million on the Wii U's install base sounds like a pipe dream.

It will probably be an awesome game that no one will play. Just like a lot of wiiu games unfortunately.

Put me on the wall of shame as a nonbeliever.

What happens when we get proven right though? Are you making a wall of shame for all the hopeful posters as well?

Put me on the non-believer list too, Neoxon. Just know that the Omega Crow is waiting for you if when it bombs.

Splatoon

Here's the winner, lol. Wonderful 101 as well.

If Splatoon ends up being a hit, I'll drink my own urine.

 

[Nintendojitsu]

That ever-increasing wall of shame is going to eat so much crow.

 

[BlackJace]

did you really quote all that

 

[Neoxon]

That ever-increasing wall of shame is going to eat so much crow.

The crows are currently marinating.

did you really quote all that

Ever since the thread started, yes.

 

[PotionBleue]

How do people feal about COMG as an indicator?

Pikmin final day: 72 points
Pikmin First Wk: 92,720 sold on MC

Super Mario 3D World final day: 66 points
Super Mario 3D World First Wk: 99,588 sold on MC

Xenoblade Chronicles X final day: 69 points
Xenoblade Chronicles X First Wk: 85,586 sold on MC

Splatoon currently sits at 137 points with 2 more days to go.

Over the weekend it eared 19 and 26 points, an unheard of number for a new IP in Japan, especially on a home console. Nintendo IPs usually have a ratio well over 1:1,000 as seen by those games. I think only 2 games on the Wii U have done done a point to sales ratio of less than 1:1,000 (NSMBU and FFV). At this point, it would have to be an unprecedented reversal of trends established over years for it to do as low as any of those games, the ratio would have to be roughly half that of every Nintendo IP. 100k first week in Japan alone is pretty much a lock.

This game is set to sell more like New Super Mario Bros. U than Pikmin 3. They're also trickling free content out over time to keep people invested. We might see it as witholding content or putting out an incomplete game, but most casuals are going to see it as a lot of free stuff.

In the Media Create thread, Mpl90 who brings up COMG preorder stats mentions the fact that the ratio has changed over time. Maybe it is better not to compare Splatoon (and by extension Xenoblade Chronicles X) points with Pikmin 3 / Super Mario 3D World / NSMBU?

 

[The Giant]

There's gonna be so much crow. Just like with Guardians of the Galaxy.

 

[Neoxon]

There's gonna be so much crow. Just like with Guardians of the Galaxy.

The crow-eating for Guardians of the Galaxy was legendary.

 

[Einbroch]

The joy people get from proving other people wrong that don't really care about a topic and just throw out a quick opinion is weird to me.