Well, I mean larger stuff, generally. As I understand it the Kate stuff will actually bridge some of RTD-era UNIT in, but those are all side stories for the most part; the Churchill story, the Strax story, the Kate stuff - whereas the stuff that appears to be evolving into bigger series' are Torchwood, the New Monsters/Classic Doctors, and the Time War stuff (While the War Doctor is recent, of course most of the lore they'll be diving into is from dialogue in RTD's era). And the River stuff is her interacting with older Doctors now, which is cool. Most of the Churchill story, incidentally, is set in the RTD era, as two thirds of it are about his encounters with the 9th and 10th Doctors.
All I mean by my comments, basically, is that I don't expect we'll actually see Smith and Gillan for a while as far as Big Finish goes.
Well, I don't really see how New Monsters is considered 'larger' than those other shows by that definition, or why even if they reference some RTD-lines the Unit/War Doctor stuff would be considered more RTD than Moffat (outside of some comments with random names for events in the RTD era, most of the actual information we have about the Time War comes from the Moffat-era, and it was Moffat who originally came up with the concept of a Time War that wiped out the Timelords bridging the gap between the classic and modern series as well - although it was RTD who wrote most of that early characterization of course - and I'm sure Unit will reference classic, third Doctor era Unit as well, but that won't make it a Third Doctor story). I think especially Unit, War Doctor and River have as much of a chance of continuing after their initial batch of episodes as Torchwood really. That still leaves 5 full boxsets and 1 standalone Moffat adventure versus 1 full boxset and 2 standalone RTD adventures. But all that is just arguing semantics of course.
But yeah, I don't disagree with the idea that it will probably take a while until we get Matt Smith. Even if Moffat didn't specifically ask for it, it would just make sense for Big Finish - announce some smaller, side-character stuff first, then War Doctor, then Tennant, then Smith. Don't show all your cards at once, and all that. It is worth noting that Big Finish is now recording episodes for characters we know will turn up again - most notably Osgood/Stewart and River. That's a big step for them.
Random guess: we'll start getting Smith stories roughly one year after the Tennant series starts.
Easy prediction: we'll get a boxset about Smith travelling with River as his sole companion. Lots of dates we never saw.
Edit: Oh yeah, I believe they already confirmed River won't actually interact with any of the classic Doctors, even in that announced McGann/River story. They're in the same story, they just don't run into each other - River can be aware of the Doctor but not the other way around. After all, from the Doctor's perspective the first time he encountered River was as Tennant. It's basically the same approach they had in some of the spinoff books with River and older Doctors (as well as those diary unlockables in that Matt Smith game).
