Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?
- Thread starter joe2187
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Relax... here's a dose of reality.
Poll: Trumps negatives among Hispanics rise; worst in GOP field
You really think he's gonna have a chance in hell of winning with numbers like that?
Poll: Trumps negatives among Hispanics rise; worst in GOP field
You really think he's gonna have a chance in hell of winning with numbers like that?
Yes, if he can win battleground states, the total polling data is meaningless.
People seem to forget that only a few states matter in every national election, and he may actually take some of them.
AlimNassor
Banned
Trump is too inept to be the next hitler. His debates are terrible. All he can do is scream shit, he's a joke. Every other candidate looks at him like he's a fucking lunatic.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Obama was not a bad President, but economically the average person simply got increasingly fucked. People are desperate, hence the rise of populist presidents like Bernie and trump.
Sho_Nuff82
Member
And several battleground states are flat out unwinnable with how Republican support has deteriorated with every demographic outside of white men across the country.
I don't doubt that Hispanics overall dislike trump but that poll isn't very helpful. It looks like they got their sample by picking people with "Hispanic sounding names" and it doesn't say they randomized to ensure a representative sample across the country meaning most of the poll could have been from CA which has the largest population. i think we'll have a better idea how he does with right leaning Hispanics after TX and FL.
Manmademan
Member
The only "winnable" swing state is Ohio...and that's a big maybe thanks to Obama bailing out the auto industry.
Trump has absolutely no shot at flipping any of the others. None of them do.
Manmademan
Member
The average person is MUCH better off now than they were in January of 09 when Obama took office. It's not even close.
That hasn't stopped the conservative media from TELLING them they're worse off and many of them taking it as gospel though.
balladofwindfishes
Member
Which battleground states is his winning with no appeal to minorities?
White voter turnout was only 64% in 2012 down from 67% in 2000. If Trump can get that number back up to 67% and increase turnout by lower income whites he has a shot in a couple states including PA, VA, and OH. He'd need a VP pick that would give him FL and i think it is safe to say that won't be Rubio or Bush.
But yea, he doesn't have a clear path to the presidency and barring a financial collapse or terrorist attack doesn't have a real shot if he even manages to get the nomination.
The Artisan
Member
I do.
With the brownshirt like folks at his rallies, and GOP control of all three branches of government, he can definitely be Mussolini.
Thing is, Ted Cruz is worse.
boiled goose
good with gravy
The economy ovwrall is better sure. A majority of those gains went to the wealthy. Wealth inequality continued to increase, not decrease. Student debt continued to increase, not decrease.
People know the government is not working for them. People know they are getting fucked over.
For how terrible trump is, Cruz and rubio are worse. Trump defended planned Parenthood, said he wouldn't let people die on the street, and said the iraq war was a mistake.
Right. But I blame the GOP obstructionists. Others may have a different view.
CaptainofIndustry
Member
Yes he does. I don't know why anybody would think otherwise.
EscoBlades
Ubisoft Marketing
And the guy flip flops so hard. He says what he needs to say at the time. Or what he thinks people want to hear.
Last night's debate was telling in that when you really look at it, he had very little to offer in terms of actual, concrete policy.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Gop obstructionism is a part of it. Part of that stems from corruption, which the Democrats do less of, but still do.
Too big to fail and too big to prosecute happened under Obama. Oil companies still get huge subsidies. Health insurance is still expensive as fuck. Student debt is crazy. Nsa spying revealed under obama. War on drugs and mass incarceration continue.
Yes,Republicans are worse, but dont blame people for not being willing to settle for getting fucked slightly less.
Definitely. Imo id rather have a flip flopper than someone whose principles make him a theocrat.
malingenie
Member
If I didn't vote and a Trump won, I would not be able to live with myself.
Granted, if I vote and Trump wins, I would feel depressed. Guiltless, though.
balladofwindfishes
Member
67% of the white vote isn't worth as much as it used to be.
His path to victory either requires appealing to minorities, or somehow sway an unprecedented several millions of white people to his side in key states.
He's already burned the bridge for the first one. And the latter would require a miracle from the GOP or a total economic collapse or something, but that also seems pretty unlikely. And even with a global economic crash, I still think Trump has a hard time.
RPGCrazied
Member
This right here. If you don't vote against him, and he wins, then you are part of the problem.
benjipwns
Banned
What if you vote against him and he wins.
Not voting is the same as a Republican vote. People still don't understand this.
The Artisan
Member
exactly. this girl at work said i can't complain if i don't vote, but it's like...i'm 1 person. it's not like it would be any different if i did or didn't vote
Angelus Errare
Banned
I don't think any sane person would use that as a bullet point describing GOP. But conservative parties in America are pros at convincing white people to vote against their own interests out of fear of the "other".
- Mexicans (shorthand for all hispanics) taking your jobs, raping your women
- Blacks taking your welfares, raping your women
- Asians will take over our economy
- Middle Easterns will take over our country instill Sharia law and get rid of Christianity, raping your women
\\
The thing to remember to is that the electoral map is stacked in the Dem's favor.
Even if you generously give him all the swing states like OH/FL/IA/CO/NC/, he can't win. He's not winning PA ever. The GOP has fooled themselves into thinking that PA's a potential swing state for years and they'll never flip it again. And the latest polling suggests that they're not exactly enamored with Trump. http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/...ruary-2016-franklin-marshall-college-poll.pdf
At best, he'll get maybe 268 and that's being generous.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bMcf
Even if you generously give him all the swing states like OH/FL/IA/CO/NC/, he can't win. He's not winning PA ever. The GOP has fooled themselves into thinking that PA's a potential swing state for years and they'll never flip it again. And the latest polling suggests that they're not exactly enamored with Trump. http://www.fandm.edu/uploads/files/...ruary-2016-franklin-marshall-college-poll.pdf
At best, he'll get maybe 268 and that's being generous.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bMcf
Sub_Level
wants to fuck an Asian grill.
We're not going to become the fourth reich. We're too lazy for that and not nearly enough people would join the military.
Relax. At worst, Trump would maintain our heavy military spending and get us more heavily inolved in a middle east or african conflict, but being interventionist is something every president does.
Between 30-45% of eligible voters actually vote.
Voter turnout is a moderating factor. Which is why the GOP has done everything to stop higher turnout.
benjipwns
Banned
If you vote for him and he wins can you complain? Or is it only if your candidate loses that you can complain?
All these unwritten and unexplained rules. Voting just isn't worth it.
The Artisan
Member
she meant that if i don't go to vote and then later i am upset with the state, I can't complain.
my point is even if I vote I may not get who I want and thus I'd still be upset with the state. so what fucking difference does it make
A candidate that has his goons beat up and throw out protesters/minorities under U-S-A chants.
A candidate that says that Putin getting rid of critical journalists is a sign of strength.
A candidate that intends to build a wall around America, paid for by other countries.
A candidate that is endorsed by David Duke / the KKK.
A candidate that claims global warming is a hoax invented by China to stifle American economy.
A candidate that claims that Mexico is sending criminals illegally over to the US, so they don't have to deal with it.
Trump is a cartoon villain. This shit is straight out of South Park.
I don't think he can't win the general but he has the nomination on lock. However he will be the first candidate ever to debate an opponent where almost every statement of policy or detail he ever made is an easily disproven lie. Further if he's going up against Hillary he is too impulsive, egotistical and weird to properly recalibrate, even between debates.
I wouldn't rule it out but the factors that worked for him so far will not be as bulletproof in a 1:1 with his intellectual superior. Audience make up will become crazy important.
I wouldn't rule it out but the factors that worked for him so far will not be as bulletproof in a 1:1 with his intellectual superior. Audience make up will become crazy important.
Trump right now is that bully in elementary school who was 30 pounds bigger than every other kid but after he reached middle school and other kids hit puberty got the shit beat out of him. The primaries are elementary school and the GE is middle school, and the hundred of millions of dollars in attack ads are about to knock him down.
Also: I know his base will only be more engergized due to those ads, but fuck those people you cannot convince them no matter what, so focus on those whose minds can be changed, or those who might be apathetic to the race.
Also: I know his base will only be more engergized due to those ads, but fuck those people you cannot convince them no matter what, so focus on those whose minds can be changed, or those who might be apathetic to the race.
One thing to remember about winning X% of the white vote: this would require him to keep respectable numbers among white women, especially since white women vote more than white men do.
Once Mook opens-up that warehouse of oppo research on him, my hunch is that the gender gap will keep him from getting the numbers he needs.
Once Mook opens-up that warehouse of oppo research on him, my hunch is that the gender gap will keep him from getting the numbers he needs.
Anoregon
The flight plan I just filed with the agency list me, my men, Dr. Pavel here. But only one of you!
Man I hope this all pans out. I've actually been getting worried lately, after months of just comfortably assuming Hillary will be the next president (despite actually preferring Bernie)
mashoutposse
Ante Up
After last night's debate, I now have Trump as the front runner to win the whole thing.
-Willing to let "good" immigrants back in through legal process.
-Supports Planned Parenthood; defended their function as a protector of general women's health.
-Thought the wars were a mistake; thinks the world would've been better off if the dictators remained.
-Will retain pre-existing condition portion of Obamacare.
-Adopts strategic neutral stance on Middle Eastern matters.
All of this and more said during a Republican debate.
Barring an unforeseen campaign catastrophe, I believe Donald Trump will be our next President.
-Willing to let "good" immigrants back in through legal process.
-Supports Planned Parenthood; defended their function as a protector of general women's health.
-Thought the wars were a mistake; thinks the world would've been better off if the dictators remained.
-Will retain pre-existing condition portion of Obamacare.
-Adopts strategic neutral stance on Middle Eastern matters.
All of this and more said during a Republican debate.
Barring an unforeseen campaign catastrophe, I believe Donald Trump will be our next President.
don't worry Rubio saves
Every voter is just one person. Since one person never made a difference, by that token, why should anyone vote?
Fox Mulder
Member
our two party system is fucked and people are tired and are rallying behind people like Trump or Sanders.
Trump or Hillary are very shitty options to choose from though. I hate hillary, but will have to swallow the bitter pill i guess just to keep the supreme court from being fucked for decades.
We'll have to see... I agree in principle that he should have a hard time winning the nomination without appealing to minorities (as I've contended since the beginning), but he's rallied a lot of people to vote who were never involved in the political process. That's what worries me more than anything- He's proven so far that he's getting people out to vote.
What are the most recent polling numbers for swing states?
Calamari41
41 > 38
It's not a small deal that Trump isn't required to pay lip service to unpopular GOP pillars like defending the Iraq war, denouncing Planned Parenthood, denouncing gay marriage, opposing every dotted "i" and crossed "t" of Obamacare, etc. You even had people in the debate thread saying at points "wow, Trump is making a lot of sense here, wtf is happening?" Hell, he has even softened his immigration stance to the extent that he's the least extreme one of the three contenders on stage. The more of that he can do, the better for him. Not necessarily in that he will get Bernie/Hillary supporters to vote for him, but more in that there will be fewer people saying to themselves "I need to do whatever I can to stop this man!" A lot of the analysis in election threads here has been along the lines of people saying that voters will rush to the polls to vote against him. If he can counter that, he has a chance. And last night, I believe we saw him make that pivot.
(Almost) every contender for the general election in modern times has had to promote themselves and also defend their party. If Hillary comes at him with an attack on an unpopular GOP stance, Trump can say "yeah, fuck those guys AND you!" Again, not a small deal.
boiled goose
good with gravy
Yes. Republicans are far worse. However, When you have 200k in student debt, no career advancement prospects, and no health insurance, dont blame people for being desperate for transformative change.
VivaciousSoul
Member
Not necessarily if you live in a solidly blue state (Maryland) like I said in my post. I am talking about as for a single individual. Of course everyone can't feel that way or else it would be a disaster. If I could vote 20 times I couldn't change the outcome of the vote here but it is in tune with what I want.
What I do have more of an effect on and what I'm more worried about is who between Bernie and Hilary would have a better chance against Trump. If I don't vote for Bernie and Hilary gets the nomination and then loses to Trump I shouldn't and wouldn't feel guiltless. And vice versa.
Bay Maximus
Banned
I would bet a paycheck that he doesn't get elected. But I wouldn't bet two...
DontBeThatGuy
Member
It's the beginning of the end, bruh.
I can easily seeing people hating Hillary enough to vote trump. He never sounds presidential, but he doesn't sound like he's reading from hardcore republican doctrine either
First, I think the Hitler comparisons are a bit much. Trumps a pretty shitty guy but come on, comparing him to a moral degenerate sociopath just gives his side ammunition and possibly more supporters.
There's a very real possibility that he could win the presidency and I think we should be worried about that not because he's like Hitler (that's stupid, seriously) but because the guy has no political experience and no real plan that I've seen. I would give him the benefit of the doubt - OK, show me your plan, what are you actually going to do and how are you going to do it? But you don't get those kinds of answers from him. It's like he's not even interested in answering those types of questions. He needs to learn to balance bullshit with substance. Everything can't be just about putting on a good show, at some point we have to get serious.
There's a very real possibility that he could win the presidency and I think we should be worried about that not because he's like Hitler (that's stupid, seriously) but because the guy has no political experience and no real plan that I've seen. I would give him the benefit of the doubt - OK, show me your plan, what are you actually going to do and how are you going to do it? But you don't get those kinds of answers from him. It's like he's not even interested in answering those types of questions. He needs to learn to balance bullshit with substance. Everything can't be just about putting on a good show, at some point we have to get serious.
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