Does anybody really believe Trump has a chance of winning?
- Thread starter joe2187
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Woo-Fu
Banned
People expecting a lot of change from any president don't understand how Washington works. A presidential candidate presumably does know how Washington works so if he/she promises widespread change then they're bald-faced liars.
Is this sarcasm? You don't think that the treasure trove of soundbites Trump has provided these last couple of months will not be used against him? He has no chance with minorities once those attack ads role on him. He probably won't get independents either. Good luck relying on disengaged and delusional millennials and racist white men to win a general election. .
Chie Satonaka
Member
This is silly. Obama was consistent throughout his entire campaign.
Explain to me how people who supported him BECAUSE he came to the dance with inflammatory rhetoric are going to continue to do so if he becomes a "moderate" in the GE. Additionally, you think moderate/independent voters and liberals aren't going to see right through that?
This is America. You don't have to be consistent. You only have to be the lesser of two evils. Attack the opposition until you are.
Septimus Prime
Member
"Read my lips: 'Fuck you.'"
Chie Satonaka
Member
So, if I buy into this line of thought, you don't think that the Democrats can't and won't sink him for being a flip-flopping, pandering liar?
You can't scorch the earth and the come back and try to fix it. I think Donald Trump has a path to the Presidency, but I don't think it comes from being inconsistent; I think he continues gaining momentum by going even harder with the rhetoric and attitude that brought him this far to begin with.
This idea that he wins by somehow becoming a super moderate and getting people who hated him previously on board while also keeping his far right base doesn't wash for me.
ShironRedshift
Member
And that's why we have a President Mitt Romney right now. Because the American people really are that stupid and trying to flip-flop from the primary to the general works that well. Wait...
Ironically, Mitt didn't flip in the general. He stuck to most of his conservative positions.
Monocle
Member
Where do people get this from? Honestly, it's like we're thinking of two completely different people.
Muffdraul
Member
Bah, a secret cabal installed him both terms, it was obvious.
He makes a point of doing his job in an election year. Dick!
I think enough people will disregard the pandering flip-flopper claims when he can rightfully throw that grenade right back. The rhetoric and attitude that have gotten him this far is anti-establishment and character assassination. What makes you think he needs to change anything?
minor effort
Banned
His strategy most likely has a limited timeframe of effectiveness. He's going to eventually hit a ceiling of support from angry white males, while if he sticks with the same strategy he's going to make no inroads with any other demographic.
His strategy won't be a linear progression from primary to general election.
Because what helps you in a Republican primary doesn't necessarily help you in a general election.
I predict he will end up our next President. Hardcore Bernie fans have been totally driven away from Hillary, thanks to the negative narratives about her. Some people were already scared of her.
If Bernie were to get the nomination, he'd surely scare away swing voters and anyone against Trump, looking for an alternative. Trump is scary but Sanders is worse.
Plus, the main factor is that the Republicans are motivated to go out and vote, similar to us in 2008. They're tired of not having a Repub leader for almost a decade. Look at the swell of support Trump has gotten so quickly. He is already started to lean more center and will probably end up scaring people less and less. Hell, I'm not even as scared of him as I used to be. He is a giant gimmick and may not even try to keep up with his promises, if elected. Democrat voters are lazy as hell and turnout might be pretty bad and will cost us everything, I think. If HIllary can't motivate Bernie supporters to her side, she is screwed.
If Bernie were to get the nomination, he'd surely scare away swing voters and anyone against Trump, looking for an alternative. Trump is scary but Sanders is worse.
Plus, the main factor is that the Republicans are motivated to go out and vote, similar to us in 2008. They're tired of not having a Repub leader for almost a decade. Look at the swell of support Trump has gotten so quickly. He is already started to lean more center and will probably end up scaring people less and less. Hell, I'm not even as scared of him as I used to be. He is a giant gimmick and may not even try to keep up with his promises, if elected. Democrat voters are lazy as hell and turnout might be pretty bad and will cost us everything, I think. If HIllary can't motivate Bernie supporters to her side, she is screwed.
Soulscribe
Member
No one's lost the primaries with his win record before, sooooo...
It'll be a veeeerry interesting convention, I'll say that. Lol
It'll be a veeeerry interesting convention, I'll say that. Lol
Chie Satonaka
Member
I didn't say he needs to change anything.
I said that his path to the Presidency lies in doing exactly what he's been doing, not attempting to rebrand himself as a moderate, which is what the poster I replied to in the beginning was saying he was going to do, which makes him "dangerous" in the GE.
He can't do both of those things and win.
Not always, but this tactic sure sank Kerry.
GWB didn't have to run a primary and say a bunch of nutty stuff in 2004.
minor effort
Banned
Incumbent presidential election after an eventful first term. Admittedly weak Democratic candidate. It was a lot more than just swiftboating that kept W. in office for another term.
This is a good one. And apparently Bernie's "socialist" tag helped him in the same way.
JesseEwiak
Member
Actually, Kerry overpreformed the metrics. Remember, unemployment was still relatively low, the economy was still slowly growing, and the Iraq War was still a 50/50 thing - the average American didn't buy into the "Bush is an idiot" idea totally until Katrina and the insurgency in Iraq getting much stronger.
Trump would have a chance of winning if the Republican electorate was the general electorate - unfortunately for him, in most of America, we still let black and brown people vote.
Seven4sses
Member
If people from Uganda can see him being president there, I get the feeling people here in America aren't too far off from putting him in office. The spectacle of him running is what's keeping him up there, not his proposed policies besides his beef with China, Mexico, and Muslims. Unless he did something very catastrophic, which even I don't know what that could be, I don't see him falling off the race anytime soon.
I don't want him to win, but I'm not the one who gets to decide.
I don't want him to win, but I'm not the one who gets to decide.
"He took on the pope, respect."
shinra-bansho
Member
Ooops. Lol wrong thread. My mistake shall remain for the world to see.
Dr. Feel Good
Banned
Bloomberg will enter and steal from Trump. Democrat party will win because of split votes.
Although it would be interesting to see the United States succumb to anarchy with a Trump win.
Although it would be interesting to see the United States succumb to anarchy with a Trump win.
RustyNails
Member
Bernie's core supporters are 18-29 year olds, that normally dont even vote on elections and couldn't propel Bernie to victory anywhere outside NH. This is a hugely unreliable voting bloc and makes up a tiny percentage of the total GE electorate.
Angelus Errare
Banned
"For now...", said the round table of republican politicians.
TwoDurans
"Never said I wasn't a hypocrite."
So, that's a thing...
For that big of a turnout, you'd expect a Trump landslide. Can't ignore that people might be coming out to make sure he doesn't win.
Calamari41
41 > 38
Even if you ignore every vote from every other candidate, Trump's turnout alone was higher than the entire turnout from 2012 (apparently). Across all of the states that have voted already, he's far surpassing both McCain and Romney in vote totals. Impressive any way you cut it.
Byakuya769
Member
Can we still do ban bets? I kind of need some of the terrible election analysis to be thrown the hell up out of here.
Eppy Thatcher
God's had his chance.
It's this. Completely. I know plenty of people who parrot sanders constantly bUT push and shove will move them to the more "normal" candidate.
And the worst part is that Im in that same boat. I would probably say sanders myself but the thought of splitting the nation's vote between him and Hillary leading to ducking trump in office is legit scary...and I don't trust my country enough at this point to not be idiotic.
I am a little late to the party on this.
By not voting you are actually making this more likely to happen. You may think not voting will keep you hands clean but you are doing Trump's handy work.
If I was American I would vote Sanders as well but if he doesn't get the nomination I would vote Hillary even though I really dislike her just to stop Trump getting in office.
In Ireland we have an election this Friday and I don't like the candidates but I dislike this one party the most and I am voting just to keep them out of power.
I agree with you. It is so idiotic to take this stance. Here is how I always picture it going for those who sit out.
Step 1: "Oh I just won't vote if my favored canidate doesn't get the nom...doot doot."
Step 2: "Oh shit! That asshole won?!?! Who the fuck would vote for them? Bunch of morons!"
Idiots.
benjipwns
Banned
Why are they idiots? Their vote wouldn't have changed that result.
Xisiqomelir
Member
Trump does pretty well among my FaceBook friends.
Because I find the idea of voting only for your one candidate to be an absolute shit mindset.
benjipwns
Banned
But won't you be doing that in the general?
What he has said over the past several months will help him win the Republican nomination. However those same words will isolate him from too many voters when he is outside that bubble.
It will take something drastic to happen before the election that elevates Trump (lines up with what he has said) and gets him into the White House.
It will take something drastic to happen before the election that elevates Trump (lines up with what he has said) and gets him into the White House.
If Bernie doesn't get the nom, I am most definitely voting for another candidate. I am not just going to sit back and stick a thumb up my ass.
benjipwns
Banned
But you'll only be voting for your one general election candidate.
VivaciousSoul
Member
I feel that I could live with myself not casting a single vote this year. Between Clinton and Sanders I hear what they say but when it comes down to it I don't really know enough about how things work to put my support behind either candidate. I feel that by the next election I would have learned enough to be in a better position. The Maryland primary is all the way at the end of April when I suspect how things will turn out will be a lot clearer. I won't say that if my preferred democratic candidate doesn't get the nomination I'll vote for Trump. This is a pretty wild swing. If I felt threatened that Trump was going to murder the election or that it would make a difference I'd certainly vote for whoever the democratic candidate was over choosing not to vote but Maryland is a blue state and let's be honest whether I specifically vote or not really doesn't matter. Surely it would be a disaster if everyone felt that way however. So yeah Maryland, pretty boring state. All the excitement is in PA, OH, FL, just across the bridge in VA. I'd feel as thought it really were my duty to vote there.
I guess right now the only thing that worries me is the notion lately that Trump can simply continue his character assassination tactics against Hilary. And this truly is his strength to call people liar, loser, and flip flopping fraud. That he would not be able to to the same against Bernie is certainly something to consider. I think this sums it up pretty well: http://static.currentaffairs.org/20...s-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency
I guess right now the only thing that worries me is the notion lately that Trump can simply continue his character assassination tactics against Hilary. And this truly is his strength to call people liar, loser, and flip flopping fraud. That he would not be able to to the same against Bernie is certainly something to consider. I think this sums it up pretty well: http://static.currentaffairs.org/20...s-a-trump-nomination-means-a-trump-presidency
Graphics Horse
Member
depends how many idiots there are.
leatherhat
Member
Trump needs to beat the drum on his more populist policies loudly to win over the working class (of all races). That's his path to a win.
if he does actually get the presidency, you're probably not far off.
this next election is a watershed moment for america.
D
Deleted member 1235
Unconfirmed Member
I dont understand how you nutters can go from an even handed and moderate president like obama to just full blown fucking crazy. what the hell america.
This had better not happen. if we ever get another hitler, Trump would be the most likely candidate to go power mad, hes a fucking loon.
He'll make the GWB years seem like 'the clever times'
This had better not happen. if we ever get another hitler, Trump would be the most likely candidate to go power mad, hes a fucking loon.
He'll make the GWB years seem like 'the clever times'
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