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Election 2016 [Mafia] | Everlasting GOPstoppers
- Thread starter Ourobolus
- Start date
- Status
CornBurrito
Member
This is really the issue with bulletproof and psuedo-bulletproof claims. Salva was too valuable to not keep around until late in the game, because having someone quasi-immune to night kills is a godsend for town. It would have been asinine to test his claim when he first made it, especially since it was to protect a neutral BSP. Had we lynched scum yesterday or any sooner we'd have enough leeway to test Salva and lynch him. But we can't afford a mislynch today.
CornBurrito
Member
Ok so I have a few hypotheses for the second kill:
1. Neutral SK theory. In which case the neutral has to be either Splinter or Salva
2. Scum additonal kill. In which case I believe that the secret lies in why Fireblend only used his silence once in the game. He can DOWNSIZE a player. That player is then silenced with a weak silence once. Later in the game he can re-PM the DOWNSIZE command and kill the previously DOWNSIZED player. The flavor would be you downsize, and then later on you need to downsize further so you "fire" the downsized player. Killing them.
The only issues with theory 2 is that Fireblend did agree to target Blarg with his silence to show he could use it more than once. However, Blarg only agreed to this because she believed a single scum couldnt use an ability AND kill in the same night. Fire, being scum knew that wasn't true. Luckily for him, other players pointed that out for him and he was able to get out of having to silence Blarg. Which he might not be able to do anyway.
The other issue is why wait this long to kill Cabot. My only guess is because everyone trusted Cabot, and Cabot did not think Fireblend was scum. It might have been worthwhile to keep the "town leader" alive when he doesn't suspect you.
1. Neutral SK theory. In which case the neutral has to be either Splinter or Salva
2. Scum additonal kill. In which case I believe that the secret lies in why Fireblend only used his silence once in the game. He can DOWNSIZE a player. That player is then silenced with a weak silence once. Later in the game he can re-PM the DOWNSIZE command and kill the previously DOWNSIZED player. The flavor would be you downsize, and then later on you need to downsize further so you "fire" the downsized player. Killing them.
The only issues with theory 2 is that Fireblend did agree to target Blarg with his silence to show he could use it more than once. However, Blarg only agreed to this because she believed a single scum couldnt use an ability AND kill in the same night. Fire, being scum knew that wasn't true. Luckily for him, other players pointed that out for him and he was able to get out of having to silence Blarg. Which he might not be able to do anyway.
The other issue is why wait this long to kill Cabot. My only guess is because everyone trusted Cabot, and Cabot did not think Fireblend was scum. It might have been worthwhile to keep the "town leader" alive when he doesn't suspect you.
How would the flavor for the downsize command fit if I was electorate? It makes sense for my role name (As a (ex)CEO), but not for any electorate member I can think of. I know, details, but it's something. And it'd be pretty bad for mafia to let a town leader live for as long as Cabot did. That theory is pretty far out in comparison to the simplest explanation. I don't reject the theory that maybe scum can perform to night kills, but obviously I know I have nothing to do with that if it is the case.
CornBurrito
Member
That is a valid point. I'm not sure how downsize would fit electorate flavor. We only have Hyper's PM to go off of and ex-CEO doesn't seem to fit his flavor.
And this may sound paranoid (or cause some laughs at the death thread), but it's impressive how you came up with the possibility that I can somehow use my command a second time on the same target to kill them. How common is that? When have you seen a similar role? You sure thought that up quickly, unless you prepared that hypothesis knowing there'd be a second kill last night... Ugh, I seriously don't know who I distrust the most right now. Might as well RNG my vote because other than Blarg you all are suspicious in one way or another and even Blarg could be scum since he hasn't posted all that much.
The electorate has us on the palm of their hands.
The electorate has us on the palm of their hands.
I find it unlikely that Fire did the kill. We already know about his silencing thing, and it would be a weird combo to have both. Also if he could literally drop Cabot at any time why wait? The only reason to leave him alive (in that scenario) would be if he was wrong on everything. But him being wrong implies Fire is scum, so that doesn't really work.
CornBurrito
Member
I actually spend a lot of time thinking about potential mafia roles, and mafia themes because I like that creative aspect.
CornBurrito
Member
And honestly I'm working backwards under the assumption you are scum Fireblend. So yeah, I'll admit it is a stretch to think that the kill tonight and your silence on N1 are related. They probably aren't. But I'm at a loss here.
Indeed
Yesterday when Blarg posted his crazy plan for you I honestly thought he was going to NK you so he could fake being silent (whether you silenced him or not) and send the rest of us on a wild goose chase
CornBurrito
Member
We actually can't rule that possibility out. Blarg kept ignoring everyone about how the plan seemingly made no sense. He only relented after we showed (using Hyper's PM and Ouro's intervention) that Fire could theoretically kill AND issue the silence in the same night. And he couldn't continue with his "silence me lol" plan after Ouro gave a definitive answer.
It'd be lame if Blarg was scum, not having been here for half of the time we've been playing (and more than half of the amount of posts, if I'm not mistaken). I guess partly that's why I'm sort of giving him a pass when thinking about potential lynch candidates for today, but I acknowledge he very well could be scum too.
CornBurrito
Member
Wait... I reread Hyper's role PM and it says scum wins if they outnumber or equal GOP.
If there is a neutral SK that means there is 2 town, 1 neutral, 2 scum. If this is the case I assume we haven't lost because while scum technically equals town in number, neutral could theoretically lynch scum and make it 2 town, 1 neutral, 1 scum.
But that means that if we DO vote out neutral today, scum automatically wins? Because then it is 2 town, 2 scum.
If there is a neutral SK that means there is 2 town, 1 neutral, 2 scum. If this is the case I assume we haven't lost because while scum technically equals town in number, neutral could theoretically lynch scum and make it 2 town, 1 neutral, 1 scum.
But that means that if we DO vote out neutral today, scum automatically wins? Because then it is 2 town, 2 scum.
It's a bit late for free passes :/ He actually joined late D1 didn't he? He just kept a low profile.
Actually might have been late D2
I mean, if their win condition is that their number equals GOP, then if there was 2 GOP, 1 Neutral and 2 Scum, they would have already won, no? Since that ignores neutral players entirely.
So I'd say that points towards there being 3 town and 2 scum active right now.
CornBurrito
Member
That might be an oversight from Ouro?
inb4 win condition change
But seriously, if there was a serial killer and a 2/2 split, couldn't they pull a Makai?
CornBurrito
Member
That's actually what made me realize that might be the case we're in. Didn't DR literally just end with a neutral win and 2 scum, 2 town, 1 neutral?
Jon Stewart walked into the police station, a look of worry on his face. Speaking to the officer at the front counter, he asked, "Excuse me, I'm looking for a policeman. I don't know his name, but he was an older gentleman, a bit on the grumpy side, and he kept delivering letters to me at all hours of the night."
The officer looked up from his clipboard and replied, "Oh, you're Mr. Stewart, then?"
"That's correct."
"I'm sorry to tell you...but Officer Daniels is no longer with us."
"Oh, I'm sorry to hear that. Would you know where I may find him?"
"No, you misunderstand. He's passed away." The officer said, sadly.
Jon was beside himself with an indescribable sadness. "I...I...I'm so sorry. What happened?"
The officer placed his clipboard down, leaned forward, and whispered. "He committed suicide. Shot himself in his squad car."
Jon felt his heart sink. "Oh my god, why?"
"He left a note. You know, he really respected you. I have the transcript here - I don't know if this is against protocol, but I think he would want you to read it."
Jon picked up the piece of paper and read.
To my son, I know your mother and I fell out of love long ago, but I'd never stopped thinking of you. When I received word of your death, I couldn't believe it. I didn't want to believe it. I shed so many tears. All because you chose your path in life, and then had it all taken away from you as you walked off the dais.
To my housekeeper, I know I wasn't always the nicest person, but you and your daughter were one of the few treasures I had left in life. Your desire and fire to get your daughter away from the horrors you left behind filled me with hope. When they came and took you away...I followed you down the road in my car, but there wasn't anything I could do. I'm so sorry - I hope you are safe across the border.
To my remaining family, I can't do this anymore. I supported these bastards that took our kin and friends away from us. Little did I know that they were destroying our freedom, despite touting the opposite at every turn. I should have listened to the other side and not buried my head in the sand. I've even been delivering your letters to Jon Stewart, in hopes that he can get the message out.
I can't change what I've done, but I hope I can atone for my sins.
I love you all.
Jon's hands trembled as he handed the paper back to the officer. "Thank...thank you." He turned to walk out of the station, brushing a tear from his eye.
"Mr. Stewart?" The officer piped up.
"Yes?"
"Don't forget your letter."
The officer looked up from his clipboard and replied, "Oh, you're Mr. Stewart, then?"
"That's correct."
"I'm sorry to tell you...but Officer Daniels is no longer with us."
"Oh, I'm sorry to hear that. Would you know where I may find him?"
"No, you misunderstand. He's passed away." The officer said, sadly.
Jon was beside himself with an indescribable sadness. "I...I...I'm so sorry. What happened?"
The officer placed his clipboard down, leaned forward, and whispered. "He committed suicide. Shot himself in his squad car."
Jon felt his heart sink. "Oh my god, why?"
"He left a note. You know, he really respected you. I have the transcript here - I don't know if this is against protocol, but I think he would want you to read it."
Jon picked up the piece of paper and read.
To my son, I know your mother and I fell out of love long ago, but I'd never stopped thinking of you. When I received word of your death, I couldn't believe it. I didn't want to believe it. I shed so many tears. All because you chose your path in life, and then had it all taken away from you as you walked off the dais.
To my housekeeper, I know I wasn't always the nicest person, but you and your daughter were one of the few treasures I had left in life. Your desire and fire to get your daughter away from the horrors you left behind filled me with hope. When they came and took you away...I followed you down the road in my car, but there wasn't anything I could do. I'm so sorry - I hope you are safe across the border.
To my remaining family, I can't do this anymore. I supported these bastards that took our kin and friends away from us. Little did I know that they were destroying our freedom, despite touting the opposite at every turn. I should have listened to the other side and not buried my head in the sand. I've even been delivering your letters to Jon Stewart, in hopes that he can get the message out.
I can't change what I've done, but I hope I can atone for my sins.
I love you all.
Jon's hands trembled as he handed the paper back to the officer. "Thank...thank you." He turned to walk out of the station, brushing a tear from his eye.
"Mr. Stewart?" The officer piped up.
"Yes?"
"Don't forget your letter."
El Topo said:
Neutrals do not count toward Town or Mafia's win conditions.
And the game is still going, chucklefucks.
I was not expecting 2 deaths, not at all. I was expecting either cabot or kalor to die tonight, most likely kalor due to his ability to double vote, so he had priority.
I highly doubt we have a neutral member. As explained by Ouro, if there was a neutral the only way it would make sense is if we had:
3 town
1 scum
1 neutral
or
2 town
1 scum
2 neutral
And I want to remind everyone that bsp was a not really a neutral, she was a lost mafia member. She started with no alignment but her to win she needed to join scum.
Other real options are
3 town
2 scum
or
4 town
1 scum
But what does this say about the two deaths tonight?
Well, a common undestading through this game is that it seemed scum had really weak powers besides killing, while town had a lot of weird powers that relied on chances. I think based on this we can deduce that scum could very likely have access to a second one-shot kill for balancing purposes.
So here are my main points:
-There is no neutrals in the game.
-We have 3 town and 2 scum left.
-The second kill tonight was allowed due to a scum ability. Maybe they have a one-shot extra kill, maybe they can do it due to certain condition, I don´t know.
I have seen a lot of doubts about my own ability, since my claim I knew everything I could say will be read carefully, since it was such a volatile claim. I was sure that if I hadn´t effectively lead the lynch on hyper I´ll have been lynched last night, maybe even before. My only thing that jeopardize my position is in the case I am neutral, since that puts me as the serial killer.
I can assure everyone that I am town.
But, to be honest, this is a good thing, because, from your perspective, I am either neutral or town, there is no way I am scum because I lynched Hyper. Right now, the priority of town is not to kill potential neutrals, it is to kill scum. If we lynch who we think is neutral, and it flips either neutral or town, then scum wins.
I want to type in some scenarios, I want to make it clear that:
-Again, I think there is no neutral in this game.
-Even if there was a neutral (I am not neutral, so say someone else), for town is not a priority, we have to hit scum today.
I highly doubt we have a neutral member. As explained by Ouro, if there was a neutral the only way it would make sense is if we had:
3 town
1 scum
1 neutral
or
2 town
1 scum
2 neutral
And I want to remind everyone that bsp was a not really a neutral, she was a lost mafia member. She started with no alignment but her to win she needed to join scum.
Other real options are
3 town
2 scum
or
4 town
1 scum
But what does this say about the two deaths tonight?
Well, a common undestading through this game is that it seemed scum had really weak powers besides killing, while town had a lot of weird powers that relied on chances. I think based on this we can deduce that scum could very likely have access to a second one-shot kill for balancing purposes.
So here are my main points:
-There is no neutrals in the game.
-We have 3 town and 2 scum left.
-The second kill tonight was allowed due to a scum ability. Maybe they have a one-shot extra kill, maybe they can do it due to certain condition, I don´t know.
I have seen a lot of doubts about my own ability, since my claim I knew everything I could say will be read carefully, since it was such a volatile claim. I was sure that if I hadn´t effectively lead the lynch on hyper I´ll have been lynched last night, maybe even before. My only thing that jeopardize my position is in the case I am neutral, since that puts me as the serial killer.
I can assure everyone that I am town.
But, to be honest, this is a good thing, because, from your perspective, I am either neutral or town, there is no way I am scum because I lynched Hyper. Right now, the priority of town is not to kill potential neutrals, it is to kill scum. If we lynch who we think is neutral, and it flips either neutral or town, then scum wins.
I want to type in some scenarios, I want to make it clear that:
-Again, I think there is no neutral in this game.
-Even if there was a neutral (I am not neutral, so say someone else), for town is not a priority, we have to hit scum today.
Not sure I buy that. Only Kitty's role relied on chances that we can confirm completely. You claim yours does too, but as I said you might as well have added that to make a fake claim more believable after Kitty flipped. Either way that's hardly "a lot of powers that relied on chances".
CornBurrito
Member
I agree with your second point. I think lynching scum is better than trying to suss out and lynch a neutral. Especially if there are 2 scum left.
Didn´t bsp relied on chances too? Ouro never tells us how exactly she was going to reunite with her electorade friends.
Well, moving on, what happened to blarg? Did he got hit by downsize?
CornBurrito
Member
Lets see:
Cabot
KK - chance
Salva - chance
Kalor
Lone
Sorian
Hyper
Fireblend
Corn
2/9th chance based. Possibly 1/5th if Splinter's role isn't chance based.
"A lot" is a stretch. But he might mean "for Ouro" since nobody who played an Ouro game before seemed to believe there'd be any at all.
CornBurrito
Member
I reread her death reveal post. She didn't need to become Electorate to win. She's a neutral who wins with Electorate. She could still technically win. Unless I misread it.
I think you're misremebering and getting confused because she lied and said she "might" become GOP.
Hmm, good point, but also we don´t know if Electorade roles have a random element to it. Even under the assumption that only 2 roles have a chance element, my point stand that with the amount of roles the game seems unbalanced if there is only 1 scum left, so I think it is really likely we have 2 scum to find yet.
Ok, i went back to it:
Corn is right, she was never a missing member. She was more of a reverse miller (Politician is the name of the role? I can´t remember) In ONUM, she is a minion that flips as town if investigated.
I´ll hardly call her neutral, since her role is 100% against GOP, that is an Electorade role, even if she is officially aligned with no one.
Corn is right, she was never a missing member. She was more of a reverse miller (Politician is the name of the role? I can´t remember) In ONUM, she is a minion that flips as town if investigated.
I´ll hardly call her neutral, since her role is 100% against GOP, that is an Electorade role, even if she is officially aligned with no one.
Even if there was only 1 scum left, there's no reason not to assume there's 2. Why lower our guard like that? We *have* to play like a mislynch will lose us the game.
That is what I am saying, right now I am assuming there is 2 scum, not 1. Its clear we need to get a kill now.
I want Blargonaut to show up.
CornBurrito
Member
Yeah she's neutral in name only.
CornBurrito
Member
I'm heading off for dinner. Will be back later.
Blargonaut
Banned
STAY AWAY FROM ME, ALL OF YOU
I'VE NEVER BEEN IN THE LATE GAME, DON'T TOUCH ME
WHAT DO I DO
surrounded by killers
VOTE: CornBurrito
surrounded by killers
STAY AWAY FROM ME, ALL OF YOU
I'VE NEVER BEEN IN THE LATE GAME, DON'T TOUCH ME
WHAT DO I DO
surrounded by killers
VOTE: CornBurrito
surrounded by killers
...fire didn´t hit you with downsize?
Sure.
...I'm too busy at work to form a proper opinion, and as I said I'm utterly confused right now. I'll make a list later. I would like to hear more from *Splinter though.
Was waiting for Salva/Blarg to show up. I'm thinking about Blarg and Corn at the moment
I'd be willing to bet it's either what he's checking for or what he's implying. I don't know which though
CornBurrito
Member
On mobile. sweet setup with Blarg. Now all you two need to do is wait and then you two can justify a lynch on me. That's a nice plan for scum.
Blargonaut
Banned
ohhhh ffffuuuuuuuck meeeeeeeeee, I don't want this responsibilittyyy ;_; I need to reevaluate
Reposting-
I don't know who to believe, I don't know
Reposting-
- SalvaPot
GOP-aligned Ron Paul, Libertarian/alleged GOP-aligned 3-shot Random (50% chance of success) Veteran & Priest (can't hammer the vote, CONFIRMED)
50/50 GOPlectorate
(read unfinished) CzarTim/Cornburrito
GOP-aligned Roger Ailes, President of FOX News/alleged Town-aligned 1-shot Vigilante (POWER USED? CONFIRMED? 0 uses remaining)
5% Electorate
(read unfinished)
Never Forever/Blargonaut
Crown Prince Jebediah Bush of the Floridian Barony, 1-shot Successor to Neoclassical American Royalty (used)100% GOPLoser/Town Citizen
- *Splinter
GOP Scott Walker, Blowhard/alleged ???-aligned power roleAfter reading his Star Wars breadcrumb, I thought he was going to name-claim as GOP Ronald Reagan, hence this tentative reply of mine; yet, it turns out he's claimed as one of his GOP Padawans. He then goes on to insinuate that he has a power role by title-claiming as 'Blowhard'.
41% Electorate
I did a quick Google trawl of Scott Walker + Star Wars, and actually came up with this connection. But then, *Splinter goes for INITIALS breadcrumbs, instead of actual LORE breadcrumbs, for his claim's backbone...?
#2shallow4Never
I'm inclined to believe that *Splinter is scum Electorate. - Fireblend
GOP-aligned Carly Fiorina, Ex-CEO/alleged Town-aligned 3-shot Silencer (POWER USED, CONFIRMED; 2 more uses remaining)I dunno. The reason he used his Silence ability only once could possibly be because he (read unfinished)
50/50 GOPlectorate
I don't know who to believe, I don't know
I'd like to discuss Blarg's vote on CornBurrito. There are several scenarios:
Blarg is scum & Corn is town:
- This means scum #2 could be waiting for someone else to vote for corn and hammer him, immediately winning the game.
Blarg is town & Corn is town too:
- Scum could win the game right now if they both vote for Corn, ending the day.
Blarg is town & Corn is scum:
- This also explains why scum isn't hammering the vote.
Blarg is scum & Corn is scum:
- ??????? Blarg is maybe trying to confuse us to make us think one of the above scenarios is correct when in reality both are scum.
Any thoughts Blarg?
Blarg is scum & Corn is town:
- This means scum #2 could be waiting for someone else to vote for corn and hammer him, immediately winning the game.
Blarg is town & Corn is town too:
- Scum could win the game right now if they both vote for Corn, ending the day.
Blarg is town & Corn is scum:
- This also explains why scum isn't hammering the vote.
Blarg is scum & Corn is scum:
- ??????? Blarg is maybe trying to confuse us to make us think one of the above scenarios is correct when in reality both are scum.
Any thoughts Blarg?
Blargonaut
Banned
ugghhh don't ask, I don't know, I don't know what I'm doing
- Status