Momotaro is the biggest 3rd party launch on the Switch, it's already the 6th best selling 3rd Party game on the Switch physically.
To put into perspective there is only 5 PS4 games that have launched higher than
Momotaro:
- Monster Hunter World (Capcom) - 1.350.412
- Dragon Quest XI (Square Enix) - 950.338
- Final Fantasy XV (Square Enix) - 716.649
- Final Fantasy VII (Square Enix) - 702.853
- Kingdom Hearts III (Square Enix) - 640.406
- Metal Gear Solid V (Konami) - 315.288
It's also the biggest launch
Konami has had in the last decade, and likely to become their best selling game in the last 20 years.
Because it's not a JRPG but rather a family party game it will end up outselling anything on the PS4 bar
Monster Hunter World.
A good comparison for lifetime sales is
Super Mario Party. Since they are both on the same system targeting similar demographics.
As I expect that
Momotaro will follow a similar sales curve, thus it should eventually hit
1.5 million in Japan.
- Similar Price
- Launched in October vs November
- Same Genre
- Didn't get additional updates to drive sales
There is plenty of rational reasons to expect
Momotaro to become the first million selling Japanese 3rd Party on the Switch and to do so fairly quickly. Lets look at t
Super Mario Party's launch holiday, it only launched with
126K sales in its October launch week. Below are the sales of Super Mario Party during the holidays when Nintendo ships large amount of hardware to Japan:
- W 50 2018: Super Mario Party - 97.529
- W 51 2018: Super Mario Party - 155.060
- W 52 2018:Super Mario Party - 98.682
- W 1 2019: Super Mario Party - 95.102
Super Mario Party TOTAL:
446.373 (58% of Annual Sales)
Lets say
Momotaro doesn't achieve the same numbers, instead it has an average of
70K compared to Super Mario Party's
111K average. Thats still
280K physical and would bring total shipped numbers to over
800K for the year, add a conservative
10% digital and we are very close to
1M shipped + digital. The initial shipment of
500K will be sold before Week 50.
- 2018: Super Mario Party - 764.853
- 2019: Super Mario Party - 497.862
- 2020: Super Mario Party - 332.310*
Overall the floor for
Momotaro will be higher than
PS4 DQXI which finished with
1.36M