Bad speculation imo. As you can see the current stock is enough to utterly dominate their main rivals who have sold only 28k so far. Sony diverted the other 200/300k to Europe and the US. Makes sense too because xbox at least gives them some semblance of competition over there.
Despite the low stock Sony have the gen in the bag already. Not since the wii vs ps3 has a traditional home console beaten Sony. But luckily for them Nintendo abandoned the traditional console space as they couldn't compete with the might of Sony or even xbox.
Nintendo Switch alone is bigger than PS4+PS5+PSVita+XBO+XSX/S combined in Japan.
This is what the might of domination looks like in Japan.
1. Animal Crossing NH - 6M
2. Smash Ultimate - 3.8M
3. Pokemon SwSh - 3.7M
4. Splatoon 2 - 3.6M
5. Mario Kart 8 Deluxe - 3.2M
6. Super Mario Odyssey - 2.1M
7. Monster Hunter World PS4 - 2M
8. RingFit Adventure - 1.8M
9. Pokemon Let's Go - 1.7M
10. Zelda BOTW Switch - 1.7M
11. Super Mario Party - 1.6M
12. Minecraft Switch - 1.5M
13. DQ12 PS4 - 1.3M
14. FF XV - 1M
15. Mario Maker 2 - 1M
11 Nintendo titles = 30.2 million physical copies sold
2 SQE titles = 2.3 million physical copies sold
1 Microsoft = 1.5 million physical copies sold
1 Capcom = 2 million physical copies sold
This is from this week
Famitsu Sales: Week 47, 2020 (Nov 16 - Nov 22)
01./00.
[NSW] Momotaro Dentetsu: Showa, Heisei, Reiwa mo Teiban! <TBL> (Konami) {2020.11.19} (¥6.300) - 345.697 / NEW <60-80%>
02./00.
[NSW] Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity # <ACT> (Koei Tecmo) {2020.11.20} (¥7.200) - 173.215 / NEW <60-80%>
03./04. [NSW] Animal Crossing: New Horizons # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2020.03.20} (¥5.980) - 37.290 / 6.011.308 <80-100%>
(+14%)
04./06. [NSW] Ring Fit Adventure # <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.10.18} (¥7.980) - 36.069 / 1.843.792 <80-100%>
(+50%)
05./00.
[NSW] Fortnite: The Last Laugh Bundle <ACT> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2020.11.17} (¥3.000) - 31.267 / NEW <60-80%>
06./01. [PS4] Call of Duty: Black Ops - Cold War <ACT> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.13} (¥7.900) - 25.208 / 109.683 <60-80%>
(-70%)
07./05. [NSW] Pikmin 3 Deluxe <ACT> (Nintendo) {2020.10.30} (¥5.980) - 24.201 / 294.548 <60-80%>
(-22%)
08./15. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 13.568 / 3.274.793 <80-100%>
(+31%)
09./24. [NSW] Super Mario Party # <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 12.859 / 1.608.879 <80-100%>
(+179%)
10./14. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield + Expansion Pass <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2020.11.06} (¥8.689) - 11.464 / 43.088 <40-60%>
(-12%)
11./17. [NSW] Minecraft # <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 8.978 / 1.568.365 <80-100%>
(+19%)
12./18. [NSW] Super Mario 3D All-Stars <Super Mario 64 \ Super Mario Sunshine \ Super Mario Galaxy> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2020.09.18} (¥6.480) - 8.649 / 387.952 <60-80%>
(+41%)
13./07. [PS4] Sakuna: Of Rice and Ruin # <SLG> (Marvelous) {2020.11.12} (¥4.980) - 7.529 / 30.484 <80-100%>
(-67%)
14./08. [PS4] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (¥5.900) - 7.437 / 30.319 <40-60%>
(-67%)
15./02. [PS4] Assassin's Creed: Valhalla # <ACT> (Ubisoft) {2020.11.10} (¥8.400) - 6.918 / 51.973 <60-80%>
(-85%)
16./20. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate # <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200) - 6.595 / 3.883.861 <80-100%>
(+23%)
17./23. [NSW] Splatoon 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 6.357 / 3.607.895 <80-100%>
(+37%)
18./22. [NSW] Pokemon Sword / Shield # <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2019.11.15} (¥5.980) - 6.037 / 3.801.742 <80-100%>
(+23%)
19./26. [NSW] Clubhouse Games: 51 Worldwide Classics <TBL> (Nintendo) {2020.06.05} (¥3.980) - 5.157 / 429.934 <80-100%>
(+27%)
20./29. [NSW] New Super Mario Bros. U Deluxe <New Super Mario Bros. U \ New Super Luigi U> <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.01.11} (¥5.980) - 4.647 / 930.903 <80-100%>
(+43%)
21./28. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild # <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 4.410 / 1.685.115 <80-100%>
(+16%)
22./00. [NSW] Dr. Kawashima's Brain Training for Nintendo Switch <HOB> (Nintendo) {2019.12.27} (¥3.480) - 3.739 / 322.239 <80-100%>
(+65%)
23./09. [NSW] Kingdom Hearts: Melody of Memory <ACT> (Square Enix) {2020.11.11} (¥6.800) - 3.570 / 26.383 <40-60%>
(-84%)
24./10. [PS5] Marvel's Spider-Man: Miles Morales # <ADV> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (¥5.900) - 3.193 / 21.833 <40-60%>
(-83%)
25./00. [NSW] Super Mario Maker 2 # <ACT> (Nintendo) {2019.06.28} (¥5.980) - 2.910 / 988.335 <80-100%>
(+29%)
26./11. [PS5] Demon's Souls <RPG> (Sony Interactive Entertainment) {2020.11.12} (¥7.900) - 2.882 / 21.489 <40-60%>
(-85%)
27./30. [NSW] Mario Kart Live: Home Circuit - Mario Set / Luigi Set <RCE> (Nintendo) {2020.10.16} (¥9.980) - 2.511 / 92.979 <60-80%>
(-14%)
28./00.
[PS4] Fortnite: The Last Laugh Bundle <ACT> (Warner Entertainment Japan) {2020.11.17} (¥3.000) - 2.477 / NEW <40-60%>
29./00. [NSW] Fishing Spirits: Nintendo Switch Version # <SPT> (Bandai Namco Entertainment) {2019.07.25} (¥5.700) - 2.453 / 508.626 <80-100%>
(+27%)
30./00. [NSW] Human: Fall Flat <ADV> (Teyon Japan) {2020.06.25} (¥3.500) - 2.265 / 51.872 <80-100%>
(+21%)
00./00. [3DS] Momotaro Dentetsu 2017: Tachiagare Nippon!! <TBL> (Nintendo) {2016.12.22} (¥4.980) - * / 422.834
00./00. [WII] Momotaro Dentetsu 2010: Sengoku Ishin no Hero Daishuugou! no Maki [Nintendo Selects] <TBL> (Hudson) {2011.01.20} (¥2.667) - * / 389.162
Top 30
NSW - 23
PS4 - 5
PS5 - 2