Shintocki - I had to trim ten inactives from Monday this morning. And additional 15 have not logged in since Thursday on my list. They still have time, but I doubt they bother to log in again.
Personal experience, isn't representative of overall statistics. If we took Gaf as a sample, Call of Duty wouldn't even be in the top 20 games of the year and Souls would have a temple of worship in 42 states.
Note to take is the game is still new. Mobile titles do not have the typical retention rate other games share. Most are F2P, hence why a lot of people try them out and quit the minute they hit a wall. If they manage to get just 2% of the continual base to pay. That would be an enormous success. The Marvel and Star Wars titles are around 1-1.5%. People also leaving and coming back is the norm and to be expected. The only reason you notice on your own friends list is because it is limited and you get benefits for having them. The title gives you incentive to return daily and micromanage it.
On the rates, in comparison to most other F2P, it's actually pretty fair.
1. All story content is completely doable with base characters.
2. Most advance content is doable with base characters too. A few small exceptions, i.e. a bit of luck here and there is needed.
3. The rates have been pretty static and fair. It's been people's own assumptions which has got them into an aggressive furry. For Zid, who has the most highly desired TM in the game which will effectively double any physical damage attack power. A 1.79% drop rate isn't bad at all. Many titles would completely lock you out of even a chance to get it unless you paid. The problem has been the lack of expectations being managed without the general understanding of probability. If the game was tilted in our favor, we wouldn't have any desire to pay. It's not a Pay to Win title, but it's a pay to stay ahead of the curve. If you got a solid character or two already(Bartz, Chiz, Kefka, Garland, etc), you're already ahead of the curve and had some luck on your side. But these games will always prey on those who have no patience and a need for quick gratification.
Honestly, I expect the same thing every banner. The same vocal crowd will bemoan how the rates are terrible and how they are quitting. Then two weeks later, do the same exact thing.