Lyrian
Member
This is why I personally believe that Lightning will be the first 6* banner we get. The fact that she'd be our first 6* character, would mean more hype, and more people pulling for her. Then, soon afterwards, they release another 6* banner with a character the majority of people like more, and hope to get some more money out of it.
If they do it in the opposite way. people would probably blow all of their Lapis/Tickets on the Cecil 6* banner (for instance), and then if Lightning came afterwards (a character they might not particularly care for), they wouldn't feel the need to purchase more Lapis. Basically, use the hype for "THE NEW 6* CHARACTER!" to get more people to try for Lightning that they might not otherwise had done if she came second.
Using that logic,
Cecil is first, as you mention. Big draw here.
Then, FFT comes second. There is absolutely no way people do not whale for this collab, no matter when it arrives and how much is spent on the previous collab.
Lightning would then be the cooldown "event", as her original appearance was not tied to the FF13 collab, which came later.
Global's director is already on record stating that he is very shaky about Lightning coming first and was seriously considering re-ordering the 6* launch order. In terms of Western popularity, Lightning is far behind FF4 and FFT.