No, i didnt get 15% for 2000 lapis, I got all of those tms from 0 to 100% with multiple units.
And you're right, I have no idea of what I would of gotten with 2000 lapis, but I know sometimes I don't get ANYTHING with 20000 lapis. Its 1.5% odd of pulling something I need, rather than 100% odd to finish my Tm from zero to start.
2000 lapis is absolutely nothing in this game. Not even half of a 10+1 pull. And it took me 6 of them to net me Gilgamesh and I didn't get lightning in 4 of them either.
You need to play the odds and in that case, I did and got the best I could out of those 2000 lapis, no matter how you try to spin it.
Following some of your logic, we shouldn't use lapis to expand our slots, do our tms or anything else that makes the game easier for us or faster for us just because we MIGHT get a rainbow unit on a pull.
That's wacked, very wacked.
I shouldnt pay my mortgage and buy some lottery tickets instead!
1. 2000 lapis is 20 refreshes, at 76 nrg, that is 1520 nrg.
That is 15.2%
So unless you're getting g a magically high increase. No you did not get 0 to 100 from just those refrehes.
It would also take you about 28 days plus of using every additional nrg.
So that's crap.
2. The 1.5% odd is for you. Most likely you're fixated on a 5* unit if it's 1.5%.
I wouldn't roll on that. But I also don't chase pissed poor odds and tell people to evaluate the banner and not unit.
3. That's is your just that, it's you deducting what the odds are. The evaluation is much larger.
The odd you took is this, you got your TMs week earlier. In favor of possible pulls or expansion of slots.
But that's it, you choose to get TMs quicker, you weighed time as the gain over a possil be pull.
Which is ironic, because your terrible usage of the skipper slope reasoning, by then stating you shouldn't buy slots followed by buying tickets over a mortgage.
When as you know, a mortgage is a business investment in typically one of the safest fields. A slot is the closest thing in this game to a mortgage.
What you get buy spending lapis on TM is time. You gain these items faster. Which is a fine accusation to make. You want those items quicker.
I said otherwise, that getting items like that quicker is currently needed. Why do you need it currently.
You may get better TMS to get later, and I think the worst bit is... not once did I state spend the lapis.
It does not matter when you decide to spend the lapis on refrehes for TMs. You can do it now, later, the gain is the same. Actually, it will be better later.
I specifically said. Save it. Save it for those banners like this one, or facebook, or ffv, or ffiii, etc. Where you have a 30% to get something good. Unless of course you have the common ones already.
So if your goal is noctis, you're going in with the wrong attitude already and bound to fail. Go in with any unit on this banner, and you'll do alright.
The idea is always maximize odds in your favor vs your limited pool of resources. For a f2p, saving is the best thing. Typically, we get a pretty solid banner once a month. Save for it and the save for the next. Don't chase rainbows, chase banners.
Refrehes for TM is solely a gain of Time on the grind. It's not bad, but maze for example gives you time for leveling and reduce nrg for farm of required resources too. 6* and common mats. You gather energy back too in that regard for a refresh.
This is why I think it poor thought to tell f2p for TM refresh. The gain is only acquiring items faster, which you may not even need right now. No different then pulling on a banner you only need the rainbow from. Later on, when they hit the power creep, then they can. And here is the catch, they lost zero... nada... nothing. If you're spending lapis on it, it's going to be quick and basically put that 2000 in anytime, but for a slightly better gain later on.
This also takes into account the possible 3 rainbow pull and or gifts luke the Jpn, where 300 lapis nets you 2 tickets.
So if we talk about playing the odds, I'd say at best it's a wash