We're you fucking rooting for it or something? Also it's still dangerous wtf
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Florida Gov. Declares State Of Emergency Over Hurricane Irma (Up: clean-up begins)
- Thread starter fluffydelusions
- Start date
Yes and now it's expected to strengthen rapidly.
What the fuck are you talking about? It still has to cross the water from Cuba to Florida.
Cat 3 is true, but they also forecasting it to return to a 4 and potentially a 5 before catastrophic Florida landfall.
JohnTinker
Limbaugh Parrot
Yes, but it's about to go over extremely warm water and the eye wall is already restrengthening.
The local Fox 13 station here in Tampa has radar strong enough to see the eye now, and they are tracking it's movement in real time. It's heading into extremely warm water and will get strong again very quickly
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good job, now this thread is even going to be more full of people saying the scariest shit
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if it follows the current path and brushes along the west coast, how quickly will it start to lose power once it first makes contact with florida?
please no overhyping
BattleMonkey
Member
Hard to say and really it's not gonna weaken a ton if it goes much more west since its gonna still be over warm water, and FL has the problem of being very flat. Need higher elevations to help weaken the storm quick
TheLostBigBoss
Banned
Nobody said that ffs
Bacardi151
Member
I imagine it would do just like it did in Cuba if it skirts the west coast. Winds dropped 30 mph from peak over maybe 12-15 hours
EDIT: we advisories every 3 hours, next one at 2 pm.
A Cat3 is not a 'fizzle', that's still a major hurricane. Cat3 means 'Severe damage to most homes' - it may not mean they'll be blown down, but you'll have lots of damage all over. Since it's expected to strengthen again, it could get to 4 for sure ('catastrophic effects'), and possibly even a 5.
Cat3 = Lower half of F2 tornado speeds, plus all the other stuff that comes with a Hurricane
Cat4 = Upper half of F2 tornado speeds
Cat5 = F3+ speeds
So even as a Cat3 this thing would be a state wide 'weak' F2 tornado, plus storm surges, spawned tornadoes, lightning, etc.
Ravensmash
Member
It's category 3 hurricane.
That's not a fizzle.
Katrina was that category when it made landfall if I'm reading correctly.
You know, I wonder if anyone's ever studied the loss off economic output due to premature/unnecessary evacuations vs the actual cost of damage caused by wind and rain across all my major storms to make landfall in the US. I'd bet it's pretty close if not the former being greater.
Also y'all Gaf metrologists get way too easily riled up, I seriously doubt anyone is using your opinions to decide how to act.
Also y'all Gaf metrologists get way too easily riled up, I seriously doubt anyone is using your opinions to decide how to act.
Mr Fahrenheit
Member
I mean, it's still going to cover pretty much the whole state with hurricane force winds, but aight it's a fizzle I guess.
If you could come up with some sort of methodology that could produce data that would be anywhere close to useful, I would be impressed.
It's not like calculating insurance.
Double down is always the best look.
Those are excellent news... but Cat 3 is still very dangerous. Hope it continues to degrade to the point of being just a tropical storm.
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ugh, one dumbass troll says something stupid and now everyone is just going to double down on their "scare the shit out of everyone as much as possible" stuff
yeah, it's a bad fucking storm that's going to do bad fucking things. some of us just want updates without everyone reminding us how fucking scary this is going to be. you think you're doing a service by scaring people into being safe, but that's not what's happening in this thread.
yeah, it's a bad fucking storm that's going to do bad fucking things. some of us just want updates without everyone reminding us how fucking scary this is going to be. you think you're doing a service by scaring people into being safe, but that's not what's happening in this thread.
NW turn has begun
Is this turning earlier than the forecasts predicted?
NW turn has begun
Yes it has, good catch.
Randolph Freelander
Member
In the GOES infrared view, you can see as it's lifting off the coast of Cuba that it's starting to get reorganized a bit.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-50
Subject to change with new frames, of course.
http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/exper/?parms=meso1-13-200-1-50
Subject to change with new frames, of course.
A few hours earlier than predicted.
There's studies on evacuation costs (first result in 'cost of evacuations' was a study from Rice), but what's 'premature' is a matter of interpretation. Plus how do you assign a value to human lives? Part of the math for Harvey's lack of evacuations was that they didn't have as much of a head start as we have with Irma, and Houston's experience with Rita's deaths.
VenomousCoffee
Member
Looks like I get to pull an all nighter tomorrow night.
We got a badass over here, watch out.
Seriously though, you're talking hotel fares and gas money vs destruction of homes, property, infrastructure...
Try and make your brain work better before you post.
GoldenEye 007
Member
Then just check in every hour at the top of the hour because that's when the NWS will be putting out updated advisories. And follow your local news to hear stuff such as potential curfews and/or tornado watches/warnings.
Models and science: it will go down to 4 then down to 3 due to interaction with land and go back up to 4 before hitting Florida
The news can be way more reactionary:
It's a category 5: we're all going to die!
It's now a cat 4: Still scary but not that scary
Down to cat 3: we can all relax
Back to cat 4: PANIC NOW
The news can be way more reactionary:
It's a category 5: we're all going to die!
It's now a cat 4: Still scary but not that scary
Down to cat 3: we can all relax
Back to cat 4: PANIC NOW
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is this significant?
GoldenEye 007
Member
Potentially, which could bring things back east a bit....
Yes, it does appear to start the north by north west job a few hours earlier than the current line.
Impeccable
Member
More time to re-strengthen too.
Outdoor Miner
Member
That's just the center of the storm. It will reach the Keys well before that.Looks like 8AM tomorrow for the keys?
Ristifer
Member
There's no such thing as an "unnecessary evacuation" when the whole state could be covered by this thing.
Not sure what your angle is here.
E-Cat
Member
Does that mean it will go farther East than anticipated?
Right, I assume he meant landfall of the eye.
That is my point. You can have objective data that doesn't really mean much logically given that it's after the fact, and does not meaningfully diagnose whether the action taken was "premature" or not. And its use going forward will be biased and limited because of the inherent chaotic nature of natural disasters.
Thats what it looks like, but lets reserve the 'will do's' for the NHC 2 pm update.
VenomousCoffee
Member
Current Weather Channel forecast for Gainesville is worst winds at 65 to 75 if eye goes over Tampa.
cpp_is_king
Member
Luckily nobody is using your opinions to decide how to act.
Why do you feel it necessary to tie evacuation with preparing? I can't answer an argument I'm not trying to make.
Seminole county (Central Florida) here. I just got back into town today. I left for Atlanta on Wednesday for a music festival and my wife and cats were still here. I had to come back early to be with them.
Our original Sunday evening flight got cancelled and we kept making it earlier and earlier until we finally got a good flight out of Atlanta at 9:15 this morning. I'm not super worried about things this far inland. Hoping we can keep power, as we're on the same grid as the fire station.
Keep safe, FloridaGAF.
Our original Sunday evening flight got cancelled and we kept making it earlier and earlier until we finally got a good flight out of Atlanta at 9:15 this morning. I'm not super worried about things this far inland. Hoping we can keep power, as we're on the same grid as the fire station.
Keep safe, FloridaGAF.
Cuban Legend
Member
Living in West Palm GAF, here...
it's crazy we have an8am 3pm curfew and there's almost like NO rain, or serious conditions, all day today, lol.
At least I'm glad we arent getting a direct hit, but we are going to be on the upper right side of the storm which is supposed to be the strongest quadrant... Here's hoping it doesn't strengthen too bad after Cuba and we don't lose power for too long when it comes over us tomorrow.
it's crazy we have an
At least I'm glad we arent getting a direct hit, but we are going to be on the upper right side of the storm which is supposed to be the strongest quadrant... Here's hoping it doesn't strengthen too bad after Cuba and we don't lose power for too long when it comes over us tomorrow.
Be safe, friendo. See you at the school on the other side.
Lizard with a ladder
learnin' with the blacks!
So much hostility in this thread. Can we go back to talking about Publix subs?