Well, what is that based on? Finishing fifth, sixth, seventh to get into Europe?
Nothing in his career has proved to me he can do that so far, and it can't just be because he's so arrogant because the best managers are.
You yourself said (and correct me if I'm mistaken again!) that his transfer record would probably be worse than Congerton's if given charge, and your team seems incapable of scoring sometimes or lack a killer instinct. What is it that makes you think he could take teams to Europe?
This is down to lack of individual quality. There is not a great deal Poyet can do about that. Teams in our position tend to rely on a sole individual for their goals - teams that don't have a star individual tend to be the lowest scoring teams in the league (such as ourselves, Villa and Burnley). Look at even Leicester, QPR and West Brom. Their top scorers are MILES ahead of the rest of their team.
What he CAN do is make the team solid and difficult to beat and he's doing that pretty much to perfection. We've had the odd blip (Southampton and Hull) but out of any team in the top 10 who would you be least confident of beating? Just like you would a Pulis team.
Remember he has been a manager for <5 years as well and he's gone into a club the size of Sunderland and performed the greatest recovery in the history of the league.
His refusal to take any blame and deflection towards the players will see him struggle to manage top squads. His recent outburst about not calling him the manager is pretty much why I hold the opinion that his ego will hold him back.
Poyet is going to be a great coach. But I wouldn't trust him with money. And I think any job he will take after SAFC he will demand to be in charge of transfers 100% and top clubs won't give him that. He has the coaching ability though, I have no doubt about that.