I wouldn't be surprised if Mourinho turns down Chelsea actually, especially because he knows he's second choice.
But he's looking for an escape route, so he'll probably end up there. I don't think he'll go City because he doesn't want to ruin his chances of becoming United manager, nor does he like working under directors etc etc
Interesting tweets by Dan Levene on this issue:
Dan Levene ‏@BluesChronicle
The day Chelsea sacked Ancelotti, the club ceased to be in contention for top coaches. Now it's the unproven or the unemployed for us.
Dan Levene ‏@BluesChronicle
And don't expect Jose to come back either. Chelsea would happily take him, but don't think he's interested in going back. Man C for him now?
Dan Levene ‏@BluesChronicle
@robertrea But what would he achieve by coming back? Nothing. And he won't come while Emenalo still has his job.