What are the chances a divergent candidate from the left manages to gain popularity and Hollande decides not to run?
Is there any such candidate? What would be their chances of reaching the 2nd round?
The right have successfully re-framed the current economic situation in France along nativist lines. Just like in the US, working class white people are not identifying themselves with working class blacks/arabs/asians but with wealthy whites promising them x y z populist policy. To be fair, the terrorist attacks played a huge role in supporting that, although imo that terrorism is a lot more of a domestic civil issue caused by internal French politics rather than "global Islamism" etc.
Meanwhile I don't get the feeling there is much political mobilisation amongst the middle and working class non-white populations.
That's a big problem to fix before a left wing candidate can gain any kind of critical mass of popularity. It can happen fairly rapidly but at this point I think it's far too late. Front de Gauche probably need to ditch Melenchon and find someone new that can appeal to lots of different demographics Obama style and when PS is finally obliterated next year they can be there to pick up the pieces.
If Le Pen wins though, it will be too late for the left to prevent the breakup of Europe and the spread of the far right across the continent. Make no mistake, a Le Pen victory will be the end of whatever you want to call this era of European history and there would be some ugly ugly shit to come.
I wonder how things would have gone if we had got Aubry or Royal instead of Hollande.
Hollande is the most useless human being on the fucking planet, but the PS are like all social democrats: they are left in name only, not in belief or actions. They would have carried on supporting neoliberalism whilst paying lip service to some minor welfare projects here and there. The result would have been the same terror attacks, the same worsening of the economy as per the rest of the world, and the same swing to the far right.
Ultimately it is the PS, along with the Labour Party and the Democrats etc. etc. that are responsible for this shift to the far right around the world. It was their job to resist neoliberalism but they gave up, decades ago. They thought the neoliberal party was going to go on forever just like the conservatives they were supposed to oppose did, only now it's entering terminal decline, they are taking the name of the left down with it and leaving nothing but the far right as an alternative.
I wish Bayrou and Macron would get along, no need to split the centrist vote.
Let the US and UK be your lesson. There is no centrist vote anymore, it's over. Neoliberalism is dying, people are losing their houses and jobs, hospitals are overcrowding, roads are falling apart, there's no going back to the "good old days". You had your booms, now comes the final bust. Centrism was never anything more than an ideological void by people whose lives were comfortable enough for them to ignore 1) those less fortunate and 2) the future, but here comes the latter whether we like it or not.