Burb was probably hiding behind batsnacks
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Gafia 2: The Bride of Gafia |Mafia OT| One Wedding, Many Funerals
- Thread starter RetroMG
- Start date
Something that has been bothering me about AB, when it was between me and him as possible arso, he went in HARD on me:
Which, I mean fair enough. But then later on I listed some reads and said I found his and Xam's votes on wee the most suspicious and he responded with this:
Note bolded. It just seems like when presented with a "him or me" type deal his first thought is to go all in on the other person.
As for the rest of that post, holy shit right on lol. But why bring this up at all? Could be scum trying to get brownie points.
Which, I mean fair enough. But then later on I listed some reads and said I found his and Xam's votes on wee the most suspicious and he responded with this:
Note bolded. It just seems like when presented with a "him or me" type deal his first thought is to go all in on the other person.
As for the rest of that post, holy shit right on lol. But why bring this up at all? Could be scum trying to get brownie points.
I don't understand you Salva. The advantageous position especially. Do you think you're "unkillable" or have a good grasp on who is scum?
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If that's the case and you were scum, would you have risked just blocking Launch and killing someone else? The benefit could be forcing a mislynch today where town is suspicious at Launch for surviving the night.
I don't get your logic on scum decisions. Why would Camjo's flip make me a better killer? All it means is that the info we gained from the tracker that night regarding me is useless.
The Ourobolus lynch was a deviation from thinking about Launch's claim. Specifically because I wanted to clear Launch. Related to that, why did you think I went to such lengths yesterday to confirm Launch's breadcrumbs? Scum arguably wanted Launch dead looking at last night's NK.
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If that's the case and you were scum, would you have risked just blocking Launch and killing someone else? The benefit could be forcing a mislynch today where town is suspicious at Launch for surviving the night.
I don't get your logic on scum decisions. Why would Camjo's flip make me a better killer? All it means is that the info we gained from the tracker that night regarding me is useless.
The Ourobolus lynch was a deviation from thinking about Launch's claim. Specifically because I wanted to clear Launch. Related to that, why did you think I went to such lengths yesterday to confirm Launch's breadcrumbs? Scum arguably wanted Launch dead looking at last night's NK.
As scum I'd still be working against my own interest.
I was thinking more of the effort I put into analysing Launch.
Eh. Maybe? Scum wouldn't know of Cam being the arsonist so an ordinary claim wouldn't make much sense unless I was also stationary that night. One could then ask why I wasn't used N2? I don't think many were scum reading me on D2 either.
If you've already created the answer, any path can make sense.
I haven't actually gone looking before this, but from what I remember there was some speculation of a jailor when Ouro claimed that his drinks got lost. Scum should've know that they didn't stop the drinks. I bring this up because a jailor doesn't necessarily target someone because they're scummy AND scum might want to avoid hitting the jailor's target. So why not target someone who's claimed ordinary over a power role who is more likely to be jailed?
I actually hadn't thought of that last bit before, but it kinda explains why I was seemingly targeted N4 over a claimed role. N3 is still weird as Bronx-man was confirmed and Ouro claimed on D3, but I don't remember how far the Jailor talks went on D3. I also need sleep.
This is wrong BTW. Nin looked at the wrong map and it couldn't have been true when I was jailed that night.
Eh, that's debatable. If you are scum, your job is to look townie. If you were caught doing murder and knew Launch was telling the truth, attempting to clear him is probably a better play than outright denying. It's not a #scumtell or anything, but I don't think it clears you either.
That is actually a fair point. I was thinking you maybe had done the kill then too, but you claimed right away which would have been risky if you had moved.
Wouldn't it make more sense to target someone unclaimed if you knew a Jailer was out there? Unless they didn't believe you in the first place, which I guess is just endless wifom.
Point 1:
I get the trying to look townie and I know as scum it wouldn't be a brilliant idea to go all out on Launch. My point was that with the NK we kinda ended up in the same spot as if I had helped get him lynched or done nothing to stop it.
I mentioned the effort because I feel stuff like that is harder to fake as scum. Town reading someone you know is town is trivial, but figuring out why someone is town is harder.
Point 3:
One issue I have with just choosing an unclaimed is which one? Many of them were under scrutiny by town and/or not very active. I had been town read by most people. I can't remember anyone really scum reading me before that.
Killing me off could dampen discussion and my scum reads have been quite vague.
If you were scum who would you target on N4?
I get the trying to look townie and I know as scum it wouldn't be a brilliant idea to go all out on Launch. My point was that with the NK we kinda ended up in the same spot as if I had helped get him lynched or done nothing to stop it.
I mentioned the effort because I feel stuff like that is harder to fake as scum. Town reading someone you know is town is trivial, but figuring out why someone is town is harder.
Point 3:
One issue I have with just choosing an unclaimed is which one? Many of them were under scrutiny by town and/or not very active. I had been town read by most people. I can't remember anyone really scum reading me before that.
Killing me off could dampen discussion and my scum reads have been quite vague.
If you were scum who would you target on N4?
Ourobolus. Scum would have known they didn't stop his drinks.
Launch could also have hit scum and stopped them from using their PR that night.
AbsolutBro
Member
working from home today so I will try to be around more
Well yes, in the first case (Arsonist) when presented with the opportunity to help town between myself and another, knowing I'm town, I go for the other. In the end we were all speculating on the arsonist incorrectly (by assuming table range), but given the knowledge I had, I did what I thought was right.
As for the Launch situation, the more he went after me the less convinced I was that he was scum or the arsonist himself. Hence my "normally I'd jump on this", which was directed at a Launch vote, not a Xam vote.
gonna grab some breakfast
Well yes, in the first case (Arsonist) when presented with the opportunity to help town between myself and another, knowing I'm town, I go for the other. In the end we were all speculating on the arsonist incorrectly (by assuming table range), but given the knowledge I had, I did what I thought was right.
As for the Launch situation, the more he went after me the less convinced I was that he was scum or the arsonist himself. Hence my "normally I'd jump on this", which was directed at a Launch vote, not a Xam vote.
gonna grab some breakfast
I'm going to take a closer look at yesterday in a moment, but do you have any thoughts on the votes yesterday? BSP was a really safe vote, but I was struck by how indecisive most of the people voting for her were.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
Looking back over today, I noticed that the three main potential "second roleblocks" kinda put themselves in a Mexican standoff, where they highly suspect the other two. This makes me believe that if one of them is scum, the other two are not. This isn't 100% foolproof mind you, but it was something I noticed.
Also, I went back to day two to see the vote record on weemad, and sure enough, all three of them did not vote him so there's that.
It was a safe vote, yes, but it wasn't a sure thing as far as her being town or scum. Lack of activity isn't necessarily a scumtell or just indicative of an inactive townie. Considering the lack of activity, we didn't have much to go on, so it really was a shot in the dark. The fact, however, is that if we hadn't removed her from the equation we'd just be having the same conversation over and over each subsequent day.
That's probably the reasoning for the indecisiveness. It was essentially a short-term issue with a long-term benefit for everyone. We had no idea what her alignment was, but we also didn't want to waste time fretting over that fact as we come closer to MyLo.
I am rather confused on the whole roy voting that happened. I still read him as town, despite his ambivalence to the arsonist earlier.
I believe that this is how you always play (AKA, I am to lazy to look back at earlier games
), but like you yourself already pointed out, that doesn't change the fact that being very safe and not pushing hard for people is the way scum tends to play. Combine that with you being a potential roleblocker AND the still unresolved Nin activity ping of N1, and you look very suspicious to me. And looking back at earlier days, there is nothing that counters that with things that make me feel you are town. Also, why are you today more confident that Xam is hiding something? Is it purely because of how he went in against Launch yesterday?
Nin hasn't even given us his MD results yet
The whole day's end yesterday really felt to me like nobody had a real good idea who to lynch, so it came down to two basically policy lynches (BSP for low activity, me since a lot of people think it is hard to distinguish between town and scum Roy).
Here's some reads to make up for lost time. Sorry if I messed up anywhere (let me know if i did).
Roytheone - Claimed Ordinary. May be a scum roleblocker? I don't really scum-read him, he's not been super influential or instrumental in anything, but it seems to me when he's not talking it's because he has genuinely has little or nothing to say. Null read leaning town.
Timeaisis - Also claimed Ordinary, could also be scum roleblocker if we accept the assumptions that place me and him and Roy as the main suspects. Between him and Roy, he seems more suspicious, but there haven't been any red flags or anything beyond the relative inactivity. I do lean scum on him a little though.
Seath - Replaced RNH, hasn't claimed. I really have no idea what to think of Seath, total null read.
AbsolutBro - Claimed Ordinary. Fought the arsonist thing a little too boldly but hardly a red flag. I guess one could argue maaaybe an ordinary wouldn't fight as hard as he did, since losing an ordinary isn't a huge thing, but eh, I could see it going both ways.
Terrabyte20xx - Motion Detector. I don't get many scum vibes here, there hasn't been any indication that the detector claim may be a lie, so I'm leaning town for now. It's a powerful cover for a scum member, but I wouldn't want to risk lynching a PR.
Ourobolus - Drink-giver, neutral. I believe him. He seems to be more invested in the game and scum-hunting than I would expect from a neutral with his own set of interests, but he's being useful and lynching him would be useless if he's telling the truth, so I want him around.
SalvaPot - Somewhat of a scum read. Ever since we lynched Weemad it feels like Salva got absolved and though some people have mentioned that they may have been both scum as D2 lynch candidates, the thought hasn't gotten much traction. He made an odd role claim just now though and I'm not sure why he'd do that if he was scum?
Xamtheking - Claims to be town PR with the fire alarm shenanigans, which is an incredibly scummy claim IMO. People have been asking why the scum team would have given a town member the right to use a command for them, but I disagree completely: at that stage in the game, scum might not have known how useful the power was, or even if they did, they could have considered it worth it to exchange the power for town points. He jumped at the first opportunity to use it after making that offer, effectively negating it, and finally how in the world is this a town PR? How it is anything other than a negative-utility thing? Like Launch's claimed power, it might have flown on D1 or 2, but now we know how this game is played, that power has no place as a town PR IMO. Even if we had ended up using it, what good would it have been?
Ty4on - Everyone seems to lean town on him but I don't really see it, specially after the night he was jailed there were no night kills. Someone to keep an eye on.
Nin1000 - Claims Motion Detector. A second tracker claim is interesting. Why would scum claim a second tracker if they can make up any role? if he's scum he could've claimed a similar role with different targeting mechanics or something, maybe even something more flexible so people could be incriminated/defended more easily. Null read.
CzarTim - Claimed Ordinary. He comes off as aggressive but I know that may just be his playstyle and nothing else. There are too many ordinaries in this game IMO, there are good odds one of them is scum, but I'm not sure I'd start with Tim.
Burbeting - The only solid town read I have. I really hope I'm not wrong here.
My top suspects right now are Xam, because how on earth is his PR of any use to town (see: everything I said above), Time since he's blendy and I suppose the "one of me/Roy/Time could be scum roleblocker" theory has some validity (though theorizing about table-limited roles almost bit us on the ass with the arsonist) and I'm gonna say Salva, because it feels like he earned a "get out of jail" pass after we lynched Weemad, and I think he's been under the radar for the past couple of days.
I also feel a little worried about the more influential players like Ouro (neutral, but that only means his interests may not align with ours), Burb and to a degree Czar. They're great players, but it worries me that one of them could be scum. Assuming there's 3 scum left there's a 25% chance or so they are and I want to keep an eye on them.
For now:
Vote: Xamtheking
Another thought that just occurred to me is that I wonder why the me vs. Time vs. Roy discussion kind of just died, or at least isn't being pushed very strongly... I wonder if there really is scum between us 3 (obviously it's a 2-way choice from my perspective) and the scum team doesn't like their odds?
Roytheone - Claimed Ordinary. May be a scum roleblocker? I don't really scum-read him, he's not been super influential or instrumental in anything, but it seems to me when he's not talking it's because he has genuinely has little or nothing to say. Null read leaning town.
Timeaisis - Also claimed Ordinary, could also be scum roleblocker if we accept the assumptions that place me and him and Roy as the main suspects. Between him and Roy, he seems more suspicious, but there haven't been any red flags or anything beyond the relative inactivity. I do lean scum on him a little though.
Seath - Replaced RNH, hasn't claimed. I really have no idea what to think of Seath, total null read.
AbsolutBro - Claimed Ordinary. Fought the arsonist thing a little too boldly but hardly a red flag. I guess one could argue maaaybe an ordinary wouldn't fight as hard as he did, since losing an ordinary isn't a huge thing, but eh, I could see it going both ways.
Terrabyte20xx - Motion Detector. I don't get many scum vibes here, there hasn't been any indication that the detector claim may be a lie, so I'm leaning town for now. It's a powerful cover for a scum member, but I wouldn't want to risk lynching a PR.
Ourobolus - Drink-giver, neutral. I believe him. He seems to be more invested in the game and scum-hunting than I would expect from a neutral with his own set of interests, but he's being useful and lynching him would be useless if he's telling the truth, so I want him around.
SalvaPot - Somewhat of a scum read. Ever since we lynched Weemad it feels like Salva got absolved and though some people have mentioned that they may have been both scum as D2 lynch candidates, the thought hasn't gotten much traction. He made an odd role claim just now though and I'm not sure why he'd do that if he was scum?
Xamtheking - Claims to be town PR with the fire alarm shenanigans, which is an incredibly scummy claim IMO. People have been asking why the scum team would have given a town member the right to use a command for them, but I disagree completely: at that stage in the game, scum might not have known how useful the power was, or even if they did, they could have considered it worth it to exchange the power for town points. He jumped at the first opportunity to use it after making that offer, effectively negating it, and finally how in the world is this a town PR? How it is anything other than a negative-utility thing? Like Launch's claimed power, it might have flown on D1 or 2, but now we know how this game is played, that power has no place as a town PR IMO. Even if we had ended up using it, what good would it have been?
Ty4on - Everyone seems to lean town on him but I don't really see it, specially after the night he was jailed there were no night kills. Someone to keep an eye on.
Nin1000 - Claims Motion Detector. A second tracker claim is interesting. Why would scum claim a second tracker if they can make up any role? if he's scum he could've claimed a similar role with different targeting mechanics or something, maybe even something more flexible so people could be incriminated/defended more easily. Null read.
CzarTim - Claimed Ordinary. He comes off as aggressive but I know that may just be his playstyle and nothing else. There are too many ordinaries in this game IMO, there are good odds one of them is scum, but I'm not sure I'd start with Tim.
Burbeting - The only solid town read I have. I really hope I'm not wrong here.
My top suspects right now are Xam, because how on earth is his PR of any use to town (see: everything I said above), Time since he's blendy and I suppose the "one of me/Roy/Time could be scum roleblocker" theory has some validity (though theorizing about table-limited roles almost bit us on the ass with the arsonist) and I'm gonna say Salva, because it feels like he earned a "get out of jail" pass after we lynched Weemad, and I think he's been under the radar for the past couple of days.
I also feel a little worried about the more influential players like Ouro (neutral, but that only means his interests may not align with ours), Burb and to a degree Czar. They're great players, but it worries me that one of them could be scum. Assuming there's 3 scum left there's a 25% chance or so they are and I want to keep an eye on them.
For now:
Vote: Xamtheking
Another thought that just occurred to me is that I wonder why the me vs. Time vs. Roy discussion kind of just died, or at least isn't being pushed very strongly... I wonder if there really is scum between us 3 (obviously it's a 2-way choice from my perspective) and the scum team doesn't like their odds?
Nin hasn't even given us his MD results yet
Yeah, I'm aware :/
Maybe I just don't know what scum Xam looks like, but I don't really see Xam as scum for his interactions with Wee.
They don't seem forced or made up. The sarcastic tone seems genuine and reminds me a bit of how he reacted to Corn in Batman. I would expect scum Xam to mostly stay away from Wee and possibly thrown a tolken vote and/or some shade like a random #scumread.
Xam was also one of the few people to mention Karu on D1. FWIW Kalor made no mention of him despite hunting for inactives.
I don't think Xam is the best target for lynch today. I agree that he hasn't been a very good asset for town thus far, and his role claim is suspicious, but I feel that he has been at least somewhat sincere in his actions. His yesterday's hunt for Launch felt sincere tunneling in his part. I think that scum would try to be more cautious in their reactions, especially since they knew that he was most likely telling the truth.
Right now I want to hear from nin. I'm starting to become little bothered with the way he tunnels at absolutely everything, though. I asked for what he thought on Salva yesterday, and he admitted that he didn't 100% town read him. Yet now he was instantly "I got your back bro" when Salva has a post asking for pity party for him. Bleh.
Right now I think that best bet to lynch today is either Ty4on or one of the trio Fire/Time/Roy. I need to go through earlier posts, though.
Right now I want to hear from nin. I'm starting to become little bothered with the way he tunnels at absolutely everything, though. I asked for what he thought on Salva yesterday, and he admitted that he didn't 100% town read him. Yet now he was instantly "I got your back bro" when Salva has a post asking for pity party for him. Bleh.
Right now I think that best bet to lynch today is either Ty4on or one of the trio Fire/Time/Roy. I need to go through earlier posts, though.
It's the best concrete lead we have at the moment. Or do you think that Scum either attacked me or Ty during that night?
Crap, I forgot to post a reply to this.
Don't worry, I'm not accusing you for voting BSP. I just think that being such an easy vote (one didn't need much of a reason for voting her) it's likely there were scum voting for her. Especially if it turns out Roy is scum.
I think it's worth looking into how people justified their vote and reacted to her last post.
Don't worry, I'm not accusing you for voting BSP. I just think that being such an easy vote (one didn't need much of a reason for voting her) it's likely there were scum voting for her. Especially if it turns out Roy is scum.
I think it's worth looking into how people justified their vote and reacted to her last post.
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
#THISISGAFIA
What made you town read us?
Related to that, would you say we (or just one of us) are your strongest reads? That includes scum reads.
What do you think happened in the night that didn't have a night kill, Seath?
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I skimmed through the few pages after Launch claimed. The impressions that I got were:
- Xam was most aggressive in his reactions, was very aggressive to Launch.
- Salva was aggressive too, but in a more cautious way.
- Tim & Ouro first said Launch to be lying due to the self-jail claim, when Launch backed off, Tim became somewhat more cautious in his posts.
- I feel that Time was most cautious of the players responding.
- Roy posted a bit weird "Lol he is lying post", I'm unsure what to think of it.
- Seath was being Seath, but that's not alignment indicative at all.
Hm. I doubt they attacked you, based on your commuter claim.
I do doubt that they attacked Ty - it does seem like there would be much safer targets (or higher-visibility ones, at least, like Xam or the Motion Detectors). But I don't think it's necessarily damning evidence of Ty. But it's certainly a possibility.
You two were my strongest reads by the time I joined this game, however, Xam was also one of my strongest read for scum. Up until recently, Salva sticks in there too.
I don't know exactly what made me town you read you and Burb. I would say it has to do with the fact that the two of you were not willing to turbo the game on the previous days. In my opinion, ending a day in turbo is scumtell and heavily favors scum more than town.
In the previous game that I participated, this happened one time with Kyanrute turboing the day, and he turned out to be scum.
My point being that we have to be careful of players who are so eager to lynch others, especially when they have flipped (like Launch and BSP - who admittedly, I also wanted to lynch ironically) because it will lead us to a better direction than just throwing rocks at a river.
I'm gonna go ahead and suggest something that I suggested in the previous games, and that could totally be in play here. Perhaps I'm crazy in saying this, but I think scum is just playing us fools. I don't think scum targeted someone last night. I've imagined a different scenario that could be possible perhaps?
Well we know that the scum player who scum didn't know ended up dying, and weemad being the godfather died. I think we're looking at two scum remaining. However, I don't think scum has a roleblocker, and again you may think I'm crazy but if there's a lost partner?
What if this lost partner did everything to make sure that scum noticed him? What if this scum lost partner tried really hard to stick out and in order to be recruited some night, eventually? Someone who pulled the alarm multiple times to be noticed by scum? (Yes I'm hinting at Xam here). I think Ty has some very good points here and notes some interesting interaction between Godfather scum and Xam: http://www.neogaf.com/forum/showpost.php?p=204010743&postcount=3523
So I think, and this is just ultimately speculation, that there's the possibility that we're now looking at a three man scum team, with Xam having being recruited.
In my mind, it's a possibility.
Xamtheking
Member
*incoming secret transmission*
Just because it says a scum cant be recruited does not in any way shape or form guarantee there is or is not a scum recruiter
*end of secret transmission*
Compute undergoing repairs so stuck on mobile for probably the rest of this day phase
Just because it says a scum cant be recruited does not in any way shape or form guarantee there is or is not a scum recruiter
*end of secret transmission*
Compute undergoing repairs so stuck on mobile for probably the rest of this day phase
You're seriously proposing that there is a non-recruitable scum member and another, hidden, recruitable scum member?
Then what stopped the kill N4? Do you think we have two protective roles balanced by the fact they can only target their own table?
I have no idea. I'm trying to reconcile the two thoughts that I think you're town and that I have a hard time thinking scum would target you.
Unless they really are that dumb and they targeted Burb.
So you are saying scum basically had two members (one of them being a potential member) that didn't had access to the scum chat from the start of the game? That sounds extremely unlikely. Is it a possibility? I guess, like how many insane things are technically possibilities. It is so unlikely though that we shouldn't base arguments on that until we have an indication that it could be true.
Also a possibility, lol
Terrabyte20xx
Junior Wrestlemania XXX Champion
I think there is no way that that isn't a scum roleblocker, because if the roleblocker was town, they would've claimed by now due to the lack of NK when launch claimed.
This also has me highly considering voting Ty4on.
This also has me highly considering voting Ty4on.
A town jailor AND roleblocker would also be ridiculously OP.
Either Ty4on was jailed as a kill target or as the killer, or we've got someone who's x-shot bulletproof. Those are the only scenarios I feel aren't completely OP on our side. Town having another protective role seems too powerful, and I feel like we would've suspected it already by now.
I guess we could have another odd-night or even-night town something or other who hasn't claimed. But there aren't very many town who haven't claimed yet, and I don't see the point of holding off on that kind of claim at this point in the game. Especially after scum would have already wasted their kill on them and know who it is.
As we talk about it more, a Ty4on flip might be the most proactive thing we can do to gain more information. However, it sucks because I get a pretty decent town read from him.
Say both of us are scum. Would you have green lit killing Launch knowing his limitations when scum has a role blocker and it would put me in a tough spot the next day?
I'm confused - how does Launch's death have anything to do with it? If he jailed you he wouldn't know one way or the other whether he stopped a killing either coming or going from the jail. Scum would be crazy to not kill the claimed jailor.
I had claimed something though. I claimed not moving when I couldn't have known whether or not Camjo moved.
Because I'm the obvious person to lynch if Launch flips town.
Launch is dangerous for scum, but he's limited to his own table and scum presumably has a role blocker. That would make it less risky to leave him alive and Launch surviving the night would make him very suspicious in town's eyes.