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[TheCochese]

Since the Republicans are using their crosscheck system in Georgia, I expect Ossoff to lose. I heard they have about 680,000 people on their list to purge. So John J. Washington, and John Washington, you guys are trouble.

https://www.democracynow.org/2017/6/15/greg_palast_how_racist_voter_suppression

This is 30-year-old Democratic candidate Jon Ossoff, who fell just 2 percentage points short of winning this race outright in the first round. This should be an easy win for Ossoff.

Annnnnd that's where I stopped reading.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I don't know if there's genuine confusion over the implications of an Ossoff win or if some people are just extremely high on optimism in opposition to Trump.

For the poster from the UK asking, this is still just one district (in suburban Atlanta) Georgia, not the whole state. There are currently 14 districts in Georgia, each with their own representatives.

I'm hopeful for an Ossoff win and I supported him in the primary and in the runoff, but the potential impacts of an Democratic win in previously Republican districts across the US and on the national stage may be being overstated.

I don't think it's being overstated, but that's because it's a part of an overall trend that seems to be happening, not just existing within a vacuum.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Since the Republicans are using their crosscheck system in Georgia, I expect Ossoff to lose. I heard they have about 680,000 people on their list to purge. So John J. Washington, and John Washington, you guys are trouble.

https://www.democracynow.org/2017/6/15/greg_palast_how_racist_voter_suppression

I feel like Democracy Now isn't a very accurate source if my memory is serving me right. This article is also light on actual sources.

 

[Steve Youngblood]

I don't think it's being overstated, but that's because it's a part of an overall trend that seems to be happening, not just existing within a vacuum.

Right. My issue with the hype though is that if you set this up as the "This is it! The definitive referendum on Trump!!!!" moment, do you want to be stuck accepting that Trump is still not the dead weight you hoped he was if/when Handel wins 51% of the vote? Obviously this race has national implications, but it's probably not prudent to go into this thinking it will definitively decide anything.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

It's downpouring here in GA, so considering more Rs show up on voting day, maybe this will have a number of the older folks staying home.

Old folks will trek 10 miles through rough terrain and a thunderstorm to vote on voting day. Young people will stay home or go somewhere else and not vote if there's literally anything else to do.

 

[TheCochese]

It's not raining at all in Cobb.

 

[Lord Frieza]

Right. My issue with the hype though is that if you set this up as the "This is it! The definitive referendum on Trump!!!!" moment, do you want to be stuck accepting that Trump is still not the dead weight you hoped he was if/when Handel wins 51% of the vote? Obviously this race has national implications, but it's probably not prudent to go into this thinking it will definitively decide anything.

Yeah, I agree. I said earlier that it's better to just go ahead and accept Ossoff will lose and that we'll have another bitter, but important, 'moral' victory that is good in the long run. That way if he wins, it'll be better. And if he loses, you'll feel less empty on the inside.

 

[User Name Here]

Annnnnd that's where I stopped reading.

Why? Didn't Hillary have her election win "in the bag" too?

I feel like Democracy Now isn't a very accurate source if my memory is serving me right. This article is also light on actual sources.

I'll be honest and say that I get that general feeling from them time to time, too, but it's not that they're always wrong and/or always way off.

 

[TheCochese]

Why? Didn't Hillary have her election win "in the bag" too?



I'll be honest and say that I get that general feeling from them time to time, too, but it's not that they're always wrong and/or always way off.

Thinking that Ossoff had an easy win coming is completely ignorant. It is, has been, and always was bullshit.

Anyone who says different is trying to sell something, or has never set foot in this district.

 

[Phoenix RISING]

I don't like either one of the candidates. I have also never seen a district election gather this much attention nationwide lol (then again I'm relatively new to politics). I do think living in the district should be a requirement to run in that district though.

They still have hope that a red state would ever turn blue.

I wonder how many of them have live in the South....

 

[Lord Frieza]

I'll be honest and say that I get that general feeling from them time to time, too, but it's not that they're always wrong and/or always way off.

I don't know, I'm googling about them and not finding much. But the article isn't written very well, though, as I said. As mentioned above, this is a very red district, and it's not clear exactly where they are getting their information from or why those being interviewed are worth listening to here. I don't think voter suppression is a huge issue in this race, because my understanding is that it's vastly white and fairly high income in nature. Most of the minority voters have been gerrymandered out of this district, I think.

 

[Jeronimo Jones]

I don't think it's being overstated, but that's because it's a part of an overall trend that seems to be happening, not just existing within a vacuum.

I agree that this doesn't exist in a vacuum, but there have been questions phrased as if this district election determines whether the whole state turns blue, and others placing all hope for the future on this election causing a ripple effect across the country. That's what I mean by overstated.

 

[RoninChaos]

Voted my Ossof.

This is the first election I can remember in a long time where people were actually campaigning close to polling places. Normally people just show up very quietly and keep it moving.

 

[Lord Frieza]

I agree that this doesn't exist in a vacuum, but there have been questions phrased as if this district election determines whether the whole state turns blue, and others placing all hope for the future on this election causing a ripple effect across the country. That's what I mean by overstated.

I don't think anyone is seriously pinning all that on just this election. Some may have said something similar, but they are just getting caught up in the hype.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

You have met your match pedantry man! I am... also pedantry man.

"We cannot be certain it is not a dead heat" is accurate, but based on the polling data it is more informative to say "it is probably not a dead heat". We don't need to accept or reject the hypothesis that the race is effectively a dead heat -- that is not a statement about probabilities or about the world, it is a decision one makes based on probabilities, in cases where you need some sort of firm judgement to guide your future behavior. But there's no need to make that sort of decision here; as the outcome proven definitively very soon. We should stick to the realm of estimated probabilities in this situation, as that contains the most information and not worry about "disproving" anything at this stage.

Source: I work in the biological and social sciences where overzealous application of hypothesis testing logic to noisy data is causing a massive crisis of confidence.

I agree with all of what you said. However, in the ultimate act of pedantry, we were talking about the accuracy of statements and not necessarily their informativeness, so your response, while informative, is irrelevant.

 

[Thatonemoor]

Sending Ossoff energy from GA's 8th. Good luck!

 

[Earthstrike]

Thinking that Ossoff had an easy win coming is completely ignorant. It is, has been, and always was bullshit.

Anyone who says different is trying to sell something, or has never set foot in this district.

They may be trying to sell something different, but it doesn't mean what they are selling is false. GOP actively performing voter suppression is real.

 

[TheCochese]

They may be trying to sell something different, but it doesn't mean what they are selling is false. GOP actively performing voter suppression is real.

I'm not sure it's even applicable here.

 

[Stumpokapow]

I don't like either one of the candidates. I have also never seen a district election gather this much attention nationwide lol (then again I'm relatively new to politics). I do think living in the district should be a requirement to run in that district though.

Your position makes it possible for rich people to carpetbag by buying fake residence in their district while normal people can't because they can't afford a second house. It'd be good at keeping out John Ossoff, who lives like 5 blocks from the district, but not Hillary Clinton, who had no problem carpet bagging New York to run for Senator.

 

[Lord Frieza]

They may be trying to sell something different, but it doesn't mean what they are selling is false. GOP actively performing voter suppression is real.

There's no dispute to that, but the article in question doesn't do a good job of sourcing this in relation to this district. And I don't think there's a significant number of minority voters in it. This is a deep red district. If Handel win, it'll be because of that.

 

[Futureman]

The excite over polls in here... I just can't.... never again will I take a poll with anything more than vague curiosity after the 2016 Presidential Election.

Go Ossoff!

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Your position makes it possible for rich people to carpetbag by buying fake residence in their district while normal people can't because they can't afford a second house. It'd be good at keeping out John Ossoff, who lives like 5 blocks from the district, but not Hillary Clinton, who had no problem carpet bagging New York to run for Senator.

No no, you misunderstood me. Your primary residence needs to be in the district. You need to live there 8 months out of the year or whatever the rule is to make a place your primary residence. There's still a way around it, sure, but I would much prefer the person at least have some skin in the game. Ossoff living like 5 blocks from the district means he is still living in another district.

 

[Trickster]

The excite over polls in here... I just can't.... never again will I take a poll with anything more than vague curiosity after the 2016 Presidential Election.

Go Ossoff!

2016 polls were pretty accurate weren't they?

 

[Lord Frieza]

No no, you misunderstood me. Your primary residence needs to be in the district. You need to live there 8 months out of the year or whatever the rule is to make a place your primary residence. There's still a way around it, sure, but I would much prefer the person at least have some skin in the game. Ossoff living like 5 blocks from the district means he is still living in another district.

Yeah, that's foolproof lol

2016 polls were pretty accurate weren't they?

They were within the margin of error in the end, but a lot of people remember the aggregate percentages and get triggered.

 

[Rayven]

Bummer about the weather. It's ridiculous that something as simple as that is tolerated as a turnout factor.

 

[Piggus]

The excite over polls in here... I just can't.... never again will I take a poll with anything more than vague curiosity after the 2016 Presidential Election.

Go Ossoff!

Why do people keep acting like Clinton was guaranteed to win based on the polls? She never was. Trump's odds were lower, sure, but they were still pretty good odds. The polls were generally within the margin of error, and it's worth remembering that the bullshit pulled by Comey at the last minute hurt Clinton a lot and probably wasn't accurately reflected in the polling.

 

[Earthstrike]

There's no dispute to that, but the article in question doesn't do a good job of sourcing this in relation to this district. And I don't think there's a significant number of minority voters in it. This is a deep red district. If Handel win, it'll be because of that.

That's true. I just think one of the modern narratives that has emerged is "both sides have fake news", but unfortunately, the narrative is shifting to the extent that "neutral" news sources such as cnn end up being classified as liberal simply because they aren't saying what one side says. Therefore it's important to always go over the information presented in any article and vet for truthfulness. I will agree though in this case the article is definitely slanted and mostly incorrect.

 

[TheCochese]

No no, you misunderstood me. Your primary residence needs to be in the district. You need to live there 8 months out of the year or whatever the rule is to make a place your primary residence. There's still a way around it, sure, but I would much prefer the person at least have some skin in the game. Ossoff living like 5 blocks from the district means he is still living in another district.

That's not the rule, so it's irrelevant.

 

[Ganhyun]

Been being attacked by people over this on Facebook. I dont even live in the district. I live in a neighboring district. However, I felt the need to post about Handel's livable wage comment on WSBTV and got lots of attacks.

 

[Fenderputty]

Why do people keep acting like Clinton was guaranteed to win based on the polls? She never was. Trump's odds were lower, sure, but they were still pretty good odds. The polls were generally within the margin of error, and it's worth remembering that the bullshit pulled by Comey at the last minute hurt Clinton a lot and probably wasn't accurately reflected in the polling.

Meh ... most polling had Clinton's chances of winning in the upper 80 to 90 percent range. Even Nate basically hedged his bets by claiming "chance at systemic polling error". Which it was. Polling was accurately inaccurate.

Been being attacked by people over this on Facebook. I dont even live in the district. I live in a neighboring district. However, I felt the need to post about Handel's livable wage comment on WSBTV and got lots of attacks.

Any of substance?

 

[RustyNails]

We need a new OT for the election today. This thread is for the primary results.

 

[TheCochese]

We need a new OT for the election today. This thread is for the primary results.

Nah.

 

[RoninChaos]

Right. My issue with the hype though is that if you set this up as the "This is it! The definitive referendum on Trump!!!!" moment, do you want to be stuck accepting that Trump is still not the dead weight you hoped he was if/when Handel wins 51% of the vote? Obviously this race has national implications, but it's probably not prudent to go into this thinking it will definitively decide anything.

Everyone has pulled this "referendum" bullshit over the last 4 election cycles, more so the republicans than anyone. I'll be extremely disappointed if the democrats do the same. A real referendum would be voting a shit ton of republicans out in 2018. Then we could see this election in my district as a referendum, but not before then.

 

[RoninChaos]

Right. My issue with the hype though is that if you set this up as the "This is it! The definitive referendum on Trump!!!!" moment, do you want to be stuck accepting that Trump is still not the dead weight you hoped he was if/when Handel wins 51% of the vote? Obviously this race has national implications, but it's probably not prudent to go into this thinking it will definitively decide anything.

No no, you misunderstood me. Your primary residence needs to be in the district. You need to live there 8 months out of the year or whatever the rule is to make a place your primary residence. There's still a way around it, sure, but I would much prefer the person at least have some skin in the game. Ossoff living like 5 blocks from the district means he is still living in another district.

Five blocks here isn't shit, man. It's not like you cross district lines and end up in another country.

 

[Maoyama]

Meh ... most polling had Clinton's chances of winning in the upper 80 to 90 percent range. Even Nate basically hedged his bets by claiming "chance at systemic polling error". Which it was. Polling was accurately inaccurate.

85% chance is still that. A chance. We only get a single data point on any of these elections.

 

[Zyae]

Meh ... most polling had Clinton's chances of winning in the upper 80 to 90 percent range. Even Nate basically hedged his bets by claiming "chance at systemic polling error". Which it was. Polling was accurately inaccurate.

Nate was informed hedging his bets on a polling error. That's what happened. He wrote for weeks about how there was poor polling coming out of the rust belt which was throwing his model off

 

[whyamihere]

It's not raining at all in Cobb.

It's going to start raining in Cobb and North Fulton around 5:30pm, per the Weather.com doppler.

 

[AnotherDayAnotherDollar]

Yeah, that's foolproof lol

I said it wasn't foolproof int he post you quoted....

That's not the rule, so it's irrelevant.

I don't know what the rules are off the top of my head, so I just threw that out there, but there are rules to establishing a permanent residency in a location.

Five blocks here isn't shit, man. It's not like you cross district lines and end up in another country.

I know, he could easily move 5 blocks down.

 

[Maxim726X]

Yeah, that's foolproof lol



They were within the margin of error in the end, but a lot of people remember the aggregate percentages and get triggered.

Or- That they were so off in the state polling that it begs the question: Why should we give a fuck about national polling?

 

[SoRuffShoNuff]

It's not raining at all in Cobb.

It's pouring where I am.

 

[whyamihere]

Or- That they were so off in the state polling that it begs the question: Why should we give a fuck about national polling?

Because national polling is made up of states. And it's supplemental. If the national polling is moving one way, it also means certain state polling moves one way.

Like, 2% is probably where you're in the limit of winning the popular vote but could lose the EC. Because rarely do states move on their own and demographics of certain electorates swing the election, it's pretty hard to imagine at 4% win allowing the popular vote loser to win the EC.

The state polling was bad! But if Hillary was up in Michigan by, say, 45-40, that still means that there is 15% undecided. And that's... a big number!

 

[RPGCrazied]

This district has the national spotlight on it because of Trump. He has talked about this and named Ossoff by name on twitter many times attacking him. Thank him if you are mad at all the attention.

 

[TheCochese]

I don't know what the rules are off the top of my head, so I just threw that out there, but there are rules to establishing a permanent residency in a location.

You do not have to live in a district to run in it. Period.


















Looks like someone wanted the attention...sigh.

 

[ModBot]

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