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German Federal Elections 2017 |OT| Electing the new leader of the free world
- Thread starter Xando
- Start date
I'll join the SPD, work my way up and will make a GAF Thread whenever I have a decision to make! #MakeGermanyGAFAgain
Yes. Die Linke would have to move *a lot*, but they will probably not do that.
paperboywriter
Member
Completely agree
ISee
Member
The two biggest parties in a democracy forming a coalition all the time is a huge problem. Am I the only one seeing that? It nullifies voting and 'great coalitions' are a huge problem for people who want to vote against the current ruling party. What am I supposed to vote if I don't want CDU to rule and SPD joins them again and again and again?
There is a big chance we'll see a third CDU-SPD coalition in Germany, in a row! That's a democracy going wrong.
SporeCrawler
Member
Gabriels masterplan
1. let random guy go against merkel.
2. see random guy loose big and kick him out
3. become vice chancellor in a grand coalition
1. let random guy go against merkel.
2. see random guy loose big and kick him out
3. become vice chancellor in a grand coalition
Bitch Pudding
Member
I'm not a fan, either, but again, if this is the only option left - as a direct result of Germans voting - what is the alternative?
So whats gonna happen if there only is a Groko majority and the SPD says no theres gonna be new elections and the CDU will either win a majority or CDU FDP will
Muffin1611
Banned
As one of two junior partners in a hypothetical red-red-green coalition I severely doubt that Die Linke would be able to keep those positions or be able to act much on them. Hence why I think the "danger" or supposed uncompatibility with a large share of voters in that scenario is overstated and far from the truth.
You are right that it is seen that way by the electorate though.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
I mean, the reason for those grand coalitions is because the CDU is incredibly electorally successful and is closer to the SPD than it is any other party, excepting the new derelict FDP. If there's no viable coalition arithmetic except a grand coalition, that's not the fault of any of the parties, that's just what people voted for. If you want to break it up, you have to persuade some people to stop voting CDU.
ISee
Member
Minority government, a terrible way to rule a nation but it is more representative of what the voters want.
Fine with me, whoever wins wins. I can life with that. I don't want a democratic system where choice doesn't matter though.
A minority government leads to the nonsense we had during the weimar years.
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
The fact the SPD are willing to go into coalition with the CDU is a known quantity at this point. If people didn't want a grand coalition, they'd vote for a leftist party that is not the SDP. It seems to me like the German electorate is pretty happy with the status quo, no?
Choice does matter. People are just choosing the CDU and the SDP.
ISee
Member
A democracy where voting isn't able to change the system because the two biggest parties join forces all the time is better?
D
Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
They're the two biggest parties because people vote for them. If enough people wanted to change the system, they could do so. The system doesn't change precisely because people are voting for it.
No a democracy that is so deadlocked that extremist parties get stronger and stronger because none of the decent parties get a majority
PdotMichael
Banned
Why not? Outside of the fact that I don't think the CDU would gain anything here but the other smaller parties which suddenly become realistic alternatives now.
4. Be there with high popularity ratings once Merkel resigns and likely become the next chancelor.
ISee
Member
Big parties not offering a counter weight to each other also pushes extremist parties, because in the end they become the only way to vote against the ruling coalition. And that's very scary with a party like AFD on the rise. Am I the only one here seeing how important choice is for a democracy to work?
You can vote for any party you want, whether its the extreme left or all the way over to the extreme right.
If people felt it was undesirable to not have a grand coalition they would vote for the smaller parties.
Youll have 6 parties in the next parliament and a lot more on the voting papers. Were not anywhere near being forced to vote for extremist parties to get the government out.
Strunz?
Bitch Pudding
Member
First results.
kingkaiser
Member
Well yeah, that's his plan since 2009. Letting one rival after another within the party to wear down against Merkel until she finally leaves.
Have you seen his weight loss? He's about to unleash his final form.
But he should better hope Merkel doesn't declare herself empress in coming 4 years or someone convincing her running for a fifth time...
PdotMichael
Banned
There is no timeline with Gabriel having high popularity ratings.
Bitch Pudding
Member
I think you're underestimating the Union's ability to come up with a decent candidate, the SPD in its current state would even have a hard time against Karl-Theodor Maria Nikolaus Johann Jacob Philipp Franz Joseph Sylvester.
I still think Olaf Scholz will be chancellor at some point.
Hes basically the male SPD equivalent of Merkel(Theyre even friends IIRC).
Gurgelhals
Member
He's been pretty high up there for a rather long time now, especially since Schulz...
https://de.statista.com/statistik/d...itischen-arbeit-von-ausgewaehlten-politikern/
There are similar polls just about popularity. Don't know what makes you say that.
Bitch Pudding
Member
He's burned, however.
ISee
Member
1. Thank you for clearing that up. For a brief moment I was sure we had to sign preemptively filled out voting bills. I'm now very relieved.
2. We had a great coalition in 2005. SPD had 34% of the votes at that time (nobody really considered that we would end up with a CDU-SPD coalition in '05 btw). Next time they lost about 11% votes (2009-23%). This was a catastrophically new low for SPD (from 1961 to 2005; they managed to stay on an average of 37%). Later, SPD was able to get a couple of votes back with the following election in 2013 (~26%) and are about to hit a new low in 2017 (after joining another great coalition in 2013). Meanwhile a nationalistic party, that wasn't able to join our parliament in 2013, because they had less then 5% of the votes, will probably end up winning the title of the third strongest party (12%+). You will for sure play this out as a coincidence, or as stupid people falling for fear mongering against immigrants and terrorists. But in contrast to your third point, I think many people feel a need to vote for an extremist partie because their vote was meaningless for two times now. Was it really meaningless, no of course not but that's not important or the deciding factor. How people feel is key. If they feel frustration about something (like their party joining CDU), they will act accordingly. There is a reason why the term "Protestwähler" started to come up once AfD began to get more traction in 2015/16. So as you say in your third point, maybe you don't feel the need to vote for an extremist party, but the AfD going from zero to 12%+ seats in our parliament, while the second strongest partie is about to hit a new all time low is telling.
But of course, not all 12% AfD voters are old SPD voters, but let it be 5%. That's 5% that could've been avoided and yes how voters feel is more important then facts. That's at least the lesson we can take from Trump winning his election.
And now I'm off to bed, because as each good german I have to go to wörk tomorrow to be able to buy brötchen for my kids and family.
(and videogames for me)
The only remaining question is who will try to defeat Merkel in four years.
He tried to make a connection to Die LINKE with CDU while not ruling out taking their result to become chancellor, taking them into government. In the upcoming days, he should be pushed to give a clear statement about that. Not that it would change much in the end but it should be clear for people who still believe in SPD.
He tried to make a connection to Die LINKE with CDU while not ruling out taking their result to become chancellor, taking them into government. In the upcoming days, he should be pushed to give a clear statement about that. Not that it would change much in the end but it should be clear for people who still believe in SPD.
You forget that if the SPD would win the election, the grand coalition (if it happened at all) would be significantly different than it is now, you'd have a new chancellor and a significantly more leftist parliament.
Grand coalition or not, Germany can't completely escape the trends of the rest of europe. Anti immigration and anti - globalisation sentiments aren't supported by any mainstream party. And i'm not sure Germany would be better off if the SPD (or the CDU) did.
If the AFD wasn't an option people wouldn't vote SPD, theyd vote other parties to the right of the CDU (or maybe die Linke, if they were more isolationist).
Patrick Bateman
Member
I have the same problem with great coalitions.
But as we saw yesterday Merkel and Schulz are pretty close with their opinions and I don't see that FDP will be strong enough for a CDU/FDP-coalition, nor that SPD/Green will win.
SPD/Green/Left would be horrible.
Haunted
Member
That makes total sense, they want to break up the boys' club of executive leadership.From the Wahlomat about the female quota:
Looks like they want to compete with Die Partei
That said, I can see how that phrasing could be misunderstood on first glance if you don't think women are as capable as men.
Your best option is supporting the FDP and hoping the AfD doesn't take too many away from the right-wing of the conservatives so a Schwarz-Gelbe Koalition is possible.
I don't see Jamaica happening on a federal level with how Die Grüne and the FDP are positioning themselves.
ISee
Member
A great coalition lead by SPD instead of CDU would result in a different chancellor, but the problem would stay. And just to make one thing clear, yes I tend to vote for SPD but I'd be more happy with CDU winning by themselves then by SPD and CDU forming a coalition again, even if it would be a coalition lead by SPD.
Look, we Germans are sort of proud to have a more diversed electoral system then for example the us. We have more then just two parties sitting in our parliament, we have a 5% stepping stone and in theory every party is able to take over the reigns, if they get enough votes.
But in truth the choice has been between CDU + 1-2 small parties or SPD + 1-2 small parties, since our new democracy started. In a way this is still a two party system, the difference is that the side dish is able to change its form and flavor. Which is great, but if both parties start to form coalitions on a regular basis voting becomes sort of irrelevant and having a choice is the foundation of a working democracy. Take that away and people will start to feel frustrated and that's never a good thing to happen.
And yes of course, nationalism is on the rise around the globe and AfD gained most of its traction because of fear mongering and xenophobia. But we are also creating another problem on top of that by making the great coalition a normal thing.
As citizens we have several ways to make changes. We can run for office ourselves, which is rather very hard. We can sue if something doesn't fit our constitution. We can organize/join protests and demonstrations. And last, but most importantly we can choose and vote. And is there still a way to make a decusion if both parties in a quasi two party system start to form coalitions on a regular basis? I don't think so.
kingkaiser
Member
It would be the most progressive coalition since the Social-liberal alliance in the 60s and 70s. All they need is a young charismatic politician like Willy Brandt and a rebrand of that great slogan "Let us dare more democracy".
The longer Merkel stays in power the more more realistic such a scenario will become, because even the ultra-conservative German society gets tired of everlasting chancellors eventually.
Bitch Pudding
Member
UK tried "more democracy" and we all know how that turned out. There's a reason we elect politicians as our representatives, people sometimes being utterly selfish and stupid and open for demagogues are some of them.
Well, ever since the Godesberg program in the late 50ties the SPD has accepted the free market economy as essential part of Germany's political paradigm. The Linke, on the other hand, would be happy to get rid of our social market economy entirely.
https://www.die-linke.de/fileadmin/.../programm_der_partei_die_linke_erfurt2011.pdf
If you can decrypt the flowery euphemism of "more democracy in the economy", it is quite obvious what kind of economic paradigm the Linke is proposing in its program, and history does not cast a favourable light on past and contemporary attempts in that direction. To say that this is just like the SPD of the 70ties is ignorant.
It's hilarious that they pass this on as progressive and that anyone believes this. It's anything but.
Frankfurter
Member
Huh? Every single major pollster has them below that number. AfD is actually averaging at around 9%.
http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/
I get your concern, you don't want the same party ruling the country forever, i agree that's important (thogh as a swiss, we haven't done that badly with running a great coalition for the last 50 years, however we do have other other mechanisms for opposition).
The easiest thing to change is to simply have term limits for chancellors. That forces the parties and the voting public to reevaluate their stances more often. People know Merkel, they know she does a decent job at serving her base and is good at reaching bipartisan compromises. With her current track record, it's pretty hard to beat her.
That said, the SPD and CDU are very close ideologically, arguably closer than any "junior partner" aside from the FDP maybe. That puts into question how different any SPD + smaller parties coalition would really be (Which is also the reason the SPD got heavily punished after Schröder). There's also a lot of bad blood between the parties on the left. If they got along better, the race gets a lot closer than it is now.
That "more democracy" by the Brits was a stupid binary vote, which just proved that simple yes/no votes don't work, when a topic is heavily complicated like Brexit. It doesn't disprove the concept of basic democracy completely.
Also a representative system doesn't protect you from demagogues.
Muffin1611
Banned
Thanks, but no thanks. I don't need a second party telling me that they're "stinksauer" at the car industry and don't do shit.
And one look at their Wahlprogramm and their Arbeitspolitik is enough to stay far away from that anti-working class party. Removing restrictions of daily working hours and making mandated breaks between two working days shorter sounds just like them.
Not to mention their stance on Mindestlohn.
Because die Linke as eternal opposition party has positions the government shouldn't hold? I'll say it again, the consequences of Die Linke as one of two junior coalition partners is massively overstated (no wonder, after so long of a government under the CDU) and I'm really doubting that they would be able to act on their bullshit positions.