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[rodrigolfp]

there are 892 million PC gamers

How did they count that?

 

[Wildebeest]

I just have a question:

does Michale P. makes a clown of himself?

I'm sure all the money he gets will help him deal with the emotional consequences of his ritual self humiliation.

 

[Topher]

I just have a question:

does Michale P. makes a clown of himself?

Actually, I think he had the best quote from the discussion....

"Business models will evolve but you'll always have a chance to play a game on a console."

 

[ResilientBanana]

There are literally around 220 Million + current generation consoles out in the world right now between the big 3. No.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Xbox is dying but PlayStation and Nintendo are doing extremely well. Consoles are fine and won’t be going anywhere for a long time thanks to their affordability and accessibility. A lot of people are not interested in PC gaming and never will be and for those people a console will always be an option.

I don’t understand the stupid fake doom and gloom around consoles because Microsoft is failing at creating a successful console and people in the media and their fanboys are trying to cope by equating their failures to Sony and Nintendo who are doing extremely well.

Microsoft has never really done well with gaming consoles. 3 out of the 4 consoles they’ve released have all flopped. The 360 was successful but thanks to RROD they still lost tons of money. Failure for Microsoft in the console space is a norm and the 360 was a fluke for them that will never happen again.

People need to let go of their coping and accept the reality that Xbox as a console brand is a total failure that is Microsoft’s fault and MS’ failure isn’t a new dark omen for consoles, and it’s not a signal that points to new shifting trends in the industry.

 

[tr1p1ex]

Good discussion. But I don't see where the 3 billion people to Gamepass are coming from.

 

[FIREKNIGHT2029]

Daily console FUD.

Remind me of the 360/PS3 generation, the difference is Xbox is on its way out now, so thats why consoles are doomed now. Same usual crap “journalists” MS bootlickers and shills like Eurogamer, Bloomberg, Forbes etc.

How wrong were those suckers back then.…and wrong again with cloud predictions… and then wrong again for saying everyone is doomed if they dont follow the Gamepass day 1 release model.

Yea, I've been hearing bullshit like this since 2011/2012.

You'd think after 12 years of repeating the same bullshit, and the failure of Stadia and Xcloud to capture an audience that these people would learn by now.

No surprise either Michael Pachter is always in these discussions, the idiot has been wrong about every console market prediction in the last 15 years.

 

[Deerock71]

If Michael Pachter predicts consoles going extinct, INVEST IN CONSOLES.

 

[quest]

There are literally around 220 Million + current generation consoles out in the world right now between the big 3. No.

If you want to toss the switch into the count then we need to include the Nintendo ds in the 360-ps3-wii era that brings that generation total to 450 million. The switch is 150, ps5 will be about 125-150 million and xbox 25 million thats a 125 million device decline. Going on the home console front your going from 300 million to 150-175 million. The market may not die soon but is in serious decline.

 

[Majormaxxx]

I don't think xbox is skipping next gen.

They must already have a prototype in the works.

 

[cireza]

Oh my God, the global park is only a meager 250 millions consoles, what can we do ? How can we achieve infinite growth in that context ?

Maybe the issue here is targetting infinite growth ? How about having a sustainable business within these 250 millions consoles and be happy with it ?

 

[Killjoy-NL]

if console really doesnt exist in the near future, what about us console peasants?
PC is too expensive and not as convenience aka plug and play like console, handheld console on the other hand has weak performance and mobile suckass....

This is exactly why consoles aren't going anywhere.

I'm even willing to go as far as to say that none of us here rn will witness the end of consoles.

 

[tr1p1ex]

making far fewer console games seems like it only hurts console sales. Raising the price of games seems like it only hurts console sales.

Then what? Consoles go up in price to compensate. And fewer people buy them. Rinse and repeat.

If developers decide to quit running to the photo realistic graphics cliff edge then what?

Console prices can come down. More games are made. Lower game prices. More interest.

But if that happens it also puts console into more competition with phones, pcs, tvs, tablets, ...

Switch is walking that fine line right now. Consoles would have to do something new to stay unique I would think ala the Switch. And then in that world the Switch suddenly competes more with a PS5/Xbox and there isn't room for 3. So there's an odd man out again like there was in the PS2 era which was the start of Nintendo's exit from the (traditional) console race.

 

[TehGoomba7s]

There's what, 70m next gen consoles out there? Mostly PS dominant, but these people aren't suddenly going to to cloud or mobile based gaming. You aren't taking away 70m consumers and replacing it with a shitty substitute.

 

[mayham2199]

Yes but those costs will not be passed down to the consumer. The baseline of AAA games now being $70 won't drop back down to $50-60 because the platform holders find ways to cut costs. That's just more money for the fat cats at the top

The market will be very interesting in 10-15 years. Gen X/Millennials are the ones keeping the industry at its current paradigm, buying console after console every 5-7 years as a matter of practice. Once we age out and Gen Z are the dominant consumer( anecdotally my 26 year old games on PC and gives zero fucks about consoles; I wonder how many more are like him), and then Gen Alpha comes in behind them( my 5 year old nephew operates a smartphone like he came out the womb with it), the paradigm will shift. They've been talking about the death of the console for 2 gens and while I think it was premature 10-15 years ago, there are some trends happening right now signaling that the winds of change are blowing.

I don't know what will happen in 10-15 years but I don't agree with looking at the way a kid is playing games on his smart phone and thinking he will never shift towards a console. I bet most kids don't buy consoles and just use their phone because the parents don't want to spend the money. It was hard as hell to get my parents to buy me any console and getting games for it was just as hard. I'm sure when a kid has a phone he just avoids having to beg and just plays on his phone and is satisfied that way. I have plenty of disposable income but honestly I would never buy my child a $500+ gift ever. I think that's way to much money to be spending on kids for entertainment.

My cousins son started off just playing on his phone almost all the time because he could never afford a console. He got a job and eventually bought a PS5. When I was a kid I went from console to PC then back to console. The only reason I went PC is because my parents would never buy me a console but my dad worked in IT so we had to have a PC at home. I think we are going to see similar trends as people get older. Most will probably just stop playing games period. Some will move on to PC gaming. Some will go to console gaming. I guess only time will tell.

My own son is 6. He went mainly Ipad for a while. Now he harasses me to get on my PS5 all the time. He's obsessed with fall guys.

 

[Topher]

If you want to toss the switch into the count then we need to include the Nintendo ds in the 360-ps3-wii era that brings that generation total to 450 million. The switch is 150, ps5 will be about 125-150 million and xbox 25 million thats a 125 million device decline. Going on the home console front your going from 300 million to 150-175 million. The market may not die soon but is in serious decline.

No, it isn't. Nintendo consolidated consoles and handhelds into one. The fact that Nintendo fans only have to buy one device instead of two isn't evidence of a decline in the console industry. In fact, revenue says the market continues to grow.

 

[dragonyeuw]

I don't know what will happen in 10-15 years but I don't agree with looking at the way a kid is playing games on his smart phone and thinking he will never shift towards a console. I bet most kids don't buy consoles and just use their phone because the parents don't want to spend the money. It was hard as hell to get my parents to buy me any console and getting games for it was just as hard. I'm sure when a kid has a phone he just avoids having to beg and just plays on his phone and is satisfied that way. I have plenty of disposable income but honestly I would never buy my child a $500+ gift ever. I think that's way to much money to be spending on kids for entertainment.

My cousins son started off just playing on his phone almost all the time because he could never afford a console. He got a job and eventually bought a PS5. When I was a kid I went from console to PC then back to console. The only reason I went PC is because my parents would never buy me a console but my dad worked in IT so we had to have a PC at home. I think we are going to see similar trends as people get older. Most will probably just stop playing games period. Some will move on to PC gaming. Some will go to console gaming. I guess only time will tell.

My own son is 6. He went mainly Ipad for a while. Now he harasses me to get on my PS5 all the time. He's obsessed with fall guys.

I'm not saying a 5 year old getting their gaming start on a smart phone or tablet today won't eventually shift to a console, as I said those are only my very limited anecdotal observations. I'm saying their behaviors when it comes to consuming games will be different from those of us who grew along with the industry as we have known it the last 30-40 years, and we can only speculate as to what effect it will have on the console market when the upcoming generations become the primary user base. My guess is the industry will be pretty different in 15 years time, who knows to what extent though. The platform holders will evolve with the demands and conditions of the day, just as we see happening now ( eg Sony releasing their games on PC, an unfathomable idea 10 years ago).

 

[YeulEmeralda]

 

[Humdinger]

How did they count that?

I don't know. I just did a quick google, didn't examine the sources.

 

[Killer8]

The Switch is setting new record after record (yes it counts as a console) and the PS5 was tracking with the PS4 sales last time I looked. They are doing fine. PS5 slightly missed Sony's high projections and now analysts are thinking the sky is falling.

 

[ArtHands]

Nah, PC will still be around even if console die

 

[Oppoi]

Oh my God, the global park is only a meager 250 millions consoles, what can we do ? How can we achieve infinite growth in that context ?

Maybe the issue here is targetting infinite growth ? How about having a sustainable business within these 250 millions consoles and be happy with it ?

You really sound like you're part of the team you know. Well done.

 

[6502]

We can't judge the ceiling when we are in a gen with such expensive machines, overpriced games and so few unique titles.

If someone came along with half the psx / ps2 depth of library on a £250 machine (within 2 years of release) with enough games of sensible scope at a reasonable price they would break records. Xbox SS was halfway there but with dreadful execution.

Whilst the market is chasing tech and supporting £70 games it won't change, but it is not beyond the wit of Sony or Nintendo to do that if the need arose.

 

[ZehDon]

Home consoles aren't growing. There's not much room left for consolidation. For publicly traded companies, that's a problem, because they can't post growth to push their share price without one of those. So, this is framed a major problem and positioned as "video games are dying" despite it not really being a problem in the fact of the billions in profits everyone is making. But record breaking profits aren't enough - you need more profit this month than last month every month. And the market isn't growing anymore. So, once Microsoft completes its transition into a third party, Sony will have 100% of the home console market. And once 100% is no longer enough for Sony to post growth, they'll be forced down the same road by their shareholders to continue to post growth. That gives us one or two more generations of traditional consoles. After that, who knows?

 

[MrRenegade]

First: kill the competition, then introduce new features that necessitates a console. Until then, feed shit into the pipe, let them copy it 1:1.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Considering the cost of PC gaming continues to spiral upwards, the reality is there is a market for a $500 box you put under the TV and turn on and play a game

Nintendo has an even better market, you can pay $300 and play a game by holding it in your hands and then when you get home drop it onto a dock and it's on your TV

Consoles aren't going anywhere as long as PC gaming only gets more expensive every year and even today kids prefer to play Fortnite on their TV instead of on their phone

 

[cash_longfellow]

This has legitimately been the discussion for the last 15 years…”consoles” as we know them will adapt and still exist. Sure they will change with the physical ness of them probably in the future, but as of now, there’s always going to be a box you have to boot up and load a game on to play….oh hey, it’s almost like PC is a console as well .

Long story short, a game has to boot from somewhere, no matter if it’s a cloud, box, tv, or computer, regardless what your think of each of those…they are consoles.

 

[Unknown Soldier]

Xbox is dying but PlayStation and Nintendo are doing extremely well. Consoles are fine and won’t be going anywhere for a long time thanks to their affordability and accessibility. A lot of people are not interested in PC gaming and never will be and for those people a console will always be an option.

I don’t understand the stupid fake doom and gloom around consoles because Microsoft is failing at creating a successful console and people in the media and their fanboys are trying to cope by equating their failures to Sony and Nintendo who are doing extremely well.

Microsoft has never really done well with gaming consoles. 3 out of the 4 consoles they’ve released have all flopped. The 360 was successful but thanks to RROD they still lost tons of money. Failure for Microsoft in the console space is a norm and the 360 was a fluke for them that will never happen again.

People need to let go of their coping and accept the reality that Xbox as a console brand is a total failure that is Microsoft’s fault and MS’ failure isn’t a new dark omen for consoles, and it’s not a signal that points to new shifting trends in the industry.

These are the same people who thought smartphones were going to die when Windows Phone flopped, I'm afraid that there's no getting through to cultists

 

[bender]

The console market has been in the 200-250 million range since the PS2 era. We are still in that range. The issue is the cost of developing a game is exponentially more expensive. Those increasing development costs have been offset with things like charging for online services, DLC, game price increases, MTX, subscriptions, PC releases, etc. I'm sure platform holders and developers will figure out additional ways to further monetizes the userbases, but I think we are near or maybe have already reached a tipping point of what not growing that userbase means for the industry. For as much as people bemoan Nintendo for getting out of the hardware power race, it was a smart decision on their part. It's probably too late for the Xbox brand to pivot so it will be interesting to see if Sony tries something different.

 

[Rhazer Fusion]

Imo, the less exclusives there are, the less reasons there are to invest into their ecosystem. Therefore I feel console sales will go down gradually when more of their exclusives go to other platforms.

 

[Power Pro]

Imo, the less exclusives there are, the less reasons there are to invest into their ecosystem. Therefore I feel console sales will go down gradually when more of their exclusives go to other platforms.

All this crap that's happening with platform holders needing to put their games on other platforms besides their own always just seems so idiotic to me. You have exclusives because it gives people a reason to buy your platform. If you take that away, then why the hell would anyone buy yours? Might help in the short term, but in the long term, you ain't going to get more people to buy into your ecosystem.

 

[Jesb]

As long as pc gaming is around so will consoles. There will always be a market for lower spec machine for people that can’t afford a high end pc or just not interested in pc. Nintendo is not going anywhere and Sony as well.

 

[phant0m]

Honestly I wish one of them would take a swing at some wild-ass architecture that could do something different.

The same mediocre x86 AMD hardware 2 gens in a row is kind of a bummer. Honestly more excited to see what Nintendo will do with the Switch successor than any "Pro" models coming out in the next year.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

I just watched the intervew... GOD DAMN Michale P. is clowning himself again, embarassing

 

[Gojiira]

Nah, and it would be a sad day if they did.
Streaming sucks even with the best service, smartphones LMFAO…Wooo sure can play games like Elden Ring or Sekiro on one..No smartphones arent for games at all, who the fuck wants to play a game like that on a tiny screen, visual clarity is crazy important for any game that requires reflexes or skill.
Either way, Xbox might be heading to extinction since all their eggs are in the non-profitable Game Pass basket but just because they cant survive doesnt mean the same is automatically applied to Nintendo and Playstation…

 

[Shadowstar39]

I don't usually agree with Pachter on a lot, but he's right here. The high end console will be here for a while longer, but there needs to be more avenues and options for people to consume content. A $500 console is not an easy sell anymore, streaming is a dream for most people, and PC getting more inaccessible every year. Microsoft had the right idea with the Series S, but they unfortunately dropped the ball hard on execution.

A $500 console was never a good idea for mass appeal. There is a reason the switch is in the lead , well outside of its strong 1st party. Its the cheapest. Growing up in the 80s I would of never got a NES at 200+ , my parents couldn't afford that. i was living with divorced parents. . It was $129 or $99 and came with 2 games. Most games that weren't just released were $15-30 , with exceptions on some titles with the most expensive being $50 until the SNES, and that was due to expensive carts. I got a tg16 , a gameboy and a Genesis growing up. All were affordable. I asked for the tg16 cd addon , I got laughed at. Too expensive at $399.99 with no game.

The ps1 and ps2 were top dogs due to price. Game companies don't drop prices like they used to. Ps1 launched at 299.99 and by 1998 the dual shock edition was 129 and a year later at $99.00 In 2002 it could be had for $50.
PS2 launched at 299.99 and by 2006 $129..

Meanwhile ps5 is still at 499.99 and 550 in some countries. Its insane. Switch is using decade old tech and its still 300 or 350. No price drops. Or if they do its for cut down versions like the switch lite, that has no detachable controls, no rumble, no motion controls, no ir, no dock and no tv out. Only thing is nintendo launched an affordable console.

Xbox series s would of been great, if it had a disc drive. A 1080p box with disc drive would of been fine, but they didn't go there.
Price means everything to struggling people and many today are struggling, inflation is all time high, job layoffs, etc...

Graphics cards also are too expensive today. You used to be able to get an entry level card for $70-140, now they are 160-200. A 1060gtx was $200, for a mid range card. Then the 2060 went to $350 and 3060 went to 400 with the ti at $450. The 4060ti is 399.99 and up

Couple all that with $70 games , its no wonder the switch is in the lead.