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[EloKa]

so apparently Greece has offered a proposal which is basically almost the same which they denied and held a referendum against.

This is either a tactic on n-levels beyond my understanding or the headless chicken is back in action.

 

[Vampirolol]

United States of Europe may be too difficult to make but Merkel, Hollande and everybody else have to satisfy their electors, something that hurts Europe istelf. We should find a compromise, at least a president elected by the people of the eurozone that can make certain decisions.

 

[Theonik]

so apparently Greece has offered a proposal which is basically almost the same which they denied and held a referendum against.

This is either a tactic on n-levels beyond my understanding or the headless chicken is back in action.

The head resigned. RIP

 

[Stiflers Mom]

THIS

If you ask most people here in Northern Europe whether they care about Ukraine, Hungary or Bulgaria, most would tell you no and won't care if they are being attacked. Ask them the same about Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland or the Netherlands and most would say our way of life and freedom is being attacked and everything should be done to prevent that. A united Europe is just a dream of people who watch too much star trek.

Yes, that's definitely true.

It's really weird my country (Germany) is in a union with Bulgaria or Estland.

I don't even know people from there, I don't know what their culture is like, and I feel their inclusion was just for pissing on the russians.

The Benelux states, Italy or France definitely feel european in a way of "that's us" to me.

 

[Machspeed007]

At least the nations that want a United Nations of Europe should move forward somehow.

 

[CyclopsRock]

United States of Europe may be too difficult to make but Merkel, Hollande and everybody else have to satisfy their electors, something that hurts Europe istelf. We should find a compromise, at least a president elected by the people of the eurozone that can make certain decisions.

But if the electorates keep voting (domestically) for politicians that "hurt Europe", I struggle to see how a reasonable response to this is to do something that specifically sets out to subvert this will.

 

[Theonik]

At least the nations that want a United Nations of Europe should move forward somehow.

United States of Southern Europe

 

[Joni]

so apparently Greece has offered a proposal which is basically almost the same which they denied and held a referendum against.

It is important to see what the differences are. It is possible to make small changes that make a world of difference.

This is either a tactic on n-levels beyond my understanding or the headless chicken is back in action.

Most likely: the small changes are making a huge difference. Likely: the situation has worsened too much and Tsipiras needs a quick recovery for his country. Least likely: Tsipiras hoped for a Yes which would have covered his ass and would have outed Varoufakis. Now it is both on him.

United States of Europe may be too difficult to make but Merkel, Hollande and everybody else have to satisfy their electors, something that hurts Europe istelf. We should find a compromise, at least a president elected by the people of the eurozone that can make certain decisions.

The funny thing is, the people that we have the least influence on - the European Commission - are the ones making the decision that improve the situation for the entire EU most of the time. A more technocrat government not influenced by political restrictions would make for a better situation. They could draw out a set of guidelines without fear of their re-election.

 

[Funky Papa]

United States of Southern Europe

But who gets to be our Florida?

 

[alstein]

It's funny that while everyone attacks Greece, no one is saying anything about USA's enormous debt/budget deficit. Imagine if China (USA's biggest creditor) tried to impose austerity on USA, just because "Americans have been living beyond their means for decades". That could potentially ignite WW3.


No, apparently it's just Greece that needs reforms, not the EU itself.

That's because most American debt is in the hands of Americans, and much if it is in its own government's hands.

If China did try this- USA could be like ok, nope, or print the money, and then if they wanted block China from American markets and wreck the Chinese economy so hard they have revolts left and right.

The only austeriy in America will be self-inflicted, or if the world picks another currency of last resort (and there's nothing that stable right now- the Euro was the closest thing, but not now)

 

[HarryHengst]

so apparently Greece has offered a proposal which is basically almost the same which they denied and held a referendum against.

This is either a tactic on n-levels beyond my understanding or the headless chicken is back in action.

The key word here is 'almost'. In fact, before the referendum the differences between Greece and the Eu werent that big, but the EU was just too stubborn to give in an inch. The Greek government has giving in a whole lot of principles already, but it was never enough. So it makes sense that at some point they said fuck this and went with the referendum.

 

[CyclopsRock]

But who gets to be our Florida?

I dunno how to break this to you, Señor Papa, but...

 

[KingSnake]

I agree with all of your points; the problem is though, that the eurocrats have mismanaged the EU so severely the last decade, that they couldn't even pull this off right now. The concept was already hard to sell to the North before that, because people would only see the short time effects (additional spending on other countries), as well as the loss of sovereignty, instead of the long term benefits. Now it's worse, because the majority of Europeans don't trust the EU anymore and the European parliament is full of nationalistic, eurosceptic parties, that would try everything in their power to block such an attempt immediately.

It's a huge dilemma that we can't overcome until the European Commission and the members of the parliament start acting in favour of Europe as a whole, instead of solely representing the interests of their own home countries. Only if the EU manages to work together for the greater good in this way, trust among the European population can be rebuild and people will eventually start seeing themselves as Europeans foremost.

I really hope I'll still be around when (if) this day comes.

Maybe one day the politicians in the richer countries will explain to their people how much the euro and EU in general helps their countries and the local businesses. How much having the same currency and no import taxes helps the countries with a positive trade balance (like Germany). How much the conditions imposed to Eastern European countries for entering the EU helped local business (like Austria) expanding in those countries and in a lot of cases at a cheap price. These all translated in the end in a higher living standard in those countries.

Why was Merkel wrong about austerity? It's worked in every other country and has rightly or wrongly kept the Eurozone together, it's only the Greeks who haven't used the time to sort out tax evaders, corruption and archaic working practices that are about to be given the boot and she's used the time to build up the defences to limit contagion.

It worked? Maybe if the target was to have a poor economic development, increasing unemployment and mediocre future.

 

[shinra-bansho]

Love how Lagarde seems to be the only sane person here. She doesn't have to face voters in her country, she's just stating economic facts. Greece needs a debt cut, end of story.

It's probably worth noting Lagarde has stated reform should precede any discussion of debt relief, and it's probably also worth noting that really the only politically palatable form this will take is, with regard to debt held by other Eurozone countries, extension of maturities (which currently don't start coming due until 2020) and further delays in interest payments (which from memory is currently deferred until at least 2022).

The IMF will not take a cut to the nominal value of the debt it holds. (They'll also pursue this regardless of the outcome of the current situation until they're paid.)
A member of the ECB governing council has stated that they do not believe they can legally do so with their debt holdings.

 

[PdotMichael]

United States of Europe may be too difficult to make but Merkel, Hollande and everybody else have to satisfy their electors, something that hurts Europe istelf. We should find a compromise, at least a president elected by the people of the eurozone that can make certain decisions.

You can't force people into something like the USE. It's that simple.

 

[Theonik]

You can't force people into something like the USE. It's that simple.

We need another world war.

 

[ElTorro]

But to clarify, what I was saying is that one can't draw a conclusive inference (as some are) as to whether the people who voted "No" are actually willing to exit the Euro if it means they will no longer have to accept conditions set by the creditor nations.

What people were told their vote meant, what people are interpreting the outcome to mean, what the realistic and plausible scenarios of the referendum are, do not all align.

As an example, people were told that capital controls would be lifted today, presumably regardless of the outcome of the vote. The realistic scenario in the event of a "No" as has unfolded is that the provision of ELA would remain unchanged or tightened, meaning an extension of capital controls and an increased likelihood of bank insolvency.

As another example, people were told this would strengthen the bargaining hand and/or accelerate a deal being made. It has in fact made an agreement less likely, from my understanding, and any agreement made will actually need to be more severe given the impact of the last week or so's events. The imposition of capital controls brought about by the second bailout lapsing in itself has apparently dramatically increased the necessary size of a third bailout.

I agree. That's what is not adding up. Interpreting the referendum as saying that people would now accepted a Grexit as alternative to austerity proposals without debt relief does not add up in the light of Tsipras' statements pre-referendum.

so apparently Greece has offered a proposal which is basically almost the same which they denied and held a referendum against.

This is either a tactic on n-levels beyond my understanding or the headless chicken is back in action.

I can only explain the actions of the Greek government as a thinly veiled strategy to initiate a Grexit without having to take prime responsibility for it.

In general, our politician's prime concern seems to be to not be blamed for anything that happens, while what actually happens is only secondary. Interviews with Martin Schulz, for instance, are pretty telling. Is stating outright that he does not want to be blamed for being the one that caused Europe to fracture.

It's visions that got us into this mess in the first place! When have visions ever been good?

The vision of a united Europe has given us 70 years of unprecedented peace and collaboration, which is pretty big deal given Europe's history.

 

[Coriolanus]

It's probably worth noting Lagarde has stated reform should precede any discussion of debt relief, and it's probably also worth noting that really the only politically palatable form this will take is, with regard to debt held by other Eurozone countries, extension of maturities (which currently don't start coming due until 2020) and further delays in interest payments (which from memory is currently deferred until at least 2022).

It is, however, also worth noting that several reforms have already preceded any discussion of debt relief.

 

[gutter_trash]

They also need long-term graphs that look like this:

Look how tiny it makes the current debt seem.

consumer society that dumped manufacturing baby

 

[Theonik]

consumer society that dumped manufacturing baby

We are soon at the point that humans are unnecessary in the basic process of producing abundance. Manufacturing may well be entirely automated. Maybe a couple of supervisors to produce wealth for millions.

 

[shinra-bansho]

It is, however, also worth noting that several reforms have already preceded any discussion of debt relief.

Yes, to a degree. Various metrics regarding the ease of doing business have improved. To a sufficient degree, is more a matter for discussion.
In case it wasn't obvious, Lagarde's comment presumably referred to commitment to continued reform.

 

[Coriolanus]

We are soon at the point that humans are unnecessary in the basic process of producing abundance. Manufacturing may well be entirely automated. Maybe a couple of supervisors to produce wealth for millions.

Given that we won't be anywhere close to a post-scarcity society when manufacturing hits that stage, i kinda doubt that the wealth will be produced for millions.

Yes, to a degree. Various metrics regarding the ease of doing business have improved. To a sufficient degree, is more a matter for discussion.
In case it wasn't obvious, Lagarde's comment presumably referred to commitment to continued reform.

I got that, i just see her comments as a carrot on a stick.

 

[Negotiator]

We are soon at the point that humans are unnecessary in the basic process of producing abundance. Manufacturing may well be entirely automated. Maybe a couple of supervisors to produce wealth for millions.

Sounds like a neoliberal's wet dream.

http://www.businessinsider.com/50-percent-unemployment-robot-economy-2013-1

 

[Theonik]

Given that we won't be anywhere close to a post-scarcity society when manufacturing hits that stage, i kinda doubt that the wealth will be produced for millions.

Millions definitely. Distributed equally? Hell no. We'll have to find some compromise to deal with resulting unemployment though.

 

[ramparter]

By the way didn't the current Greek government promise the banks would be open right after the elections?

Varoufakis did, but then resigned, probably went back to Valve to resume work on HL3.

 

[oti]

Judging by the arriving FinMin's comments a debt cut seems out of the question for most of them. Which means Greece could maybe get a slightly better offer than the one they refused, which was not at all what the people in the referendum voted for.

Yeah no, I don't see it happening unless Merkel and Hollande get poisened by bad Ouzo or something and change their mind.

 

[norinrad]

But who gets to be our Florida?

Love the southern part of your country around early December. I'm calling it Funky. Houses (Rajoy nor the next government ain't going to do shit to save the housing market there) are cheap, flights are cheap, good food and weather. Best place to retire.

 

[Peyotl]

Millions definitely. Distributed equally? Hell no. We'll have to find some compromise to deal with resulting unemployment though.

Basic income for everyone

 

[M°°nblade]

It is, however, also worth noting that several reforms have already preceded any discussion of debt relief.

Also worth nothing is that back in 2012, on average 53% of Greece's debt already was relieved and the remaining debt was spread against a very low interest.

They just piled another 320+ billion debt in the last 3 years ... so IMF and ECB are throwing money in a black hole at the moment. Reforms are essential.

 

[Coriolanus]

Judging by the arriving FinMin's comments a debt cut seems out of the question for most of them. Which means Greece could maybe get a slightly better offer than the one they refused, which was not at all what the people in the referendum voted for.

Wonder if it'll be able to go through the greek parliament. Probably not without some heavy dissent.

Won't much matter now that ND and Pasok are supporting him, obv.

Also worth nothing is that back in 2012, on average 53% of Greece's debt already was relieved and the remaining debt was spread against a very low interest.

They just piled another 320+ trillion debt in the last 3 years ... so IMF and ECB are throwing money in a black hole at the moment. Reforms are essential.

Trillion? And they aren't throwing money at a black hole, they're mostly throwing money at their own banks.

 

[oti]

Wonder if it'll be able to go through the greek parliament. Probably not without some heavy dissent.

Won't much matter now that ND and Pasok are supporting him, obv.



Trillion?

But then again, many Greeks would be happy if banks would just open up again.

 

[Negotiator]

Basic income for everyone

Nah, that's a "communist" idea.

 

[M°°nblade]

Trillion? And they aren't throwing money at a black hole, they're mostly throwing money at their own banks.

My mistake, billion.

The part that was relieved in 2012, is never going to return to their banks.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Sounds like a neoliberal's wet dream.

http://www.businessinsider.com/50-percent-unemployment-robot-economy-2013-1

Well, maybe, maybe not. One of the ironies of neoliberalism is that what's good for an individual company would be, if enacted by everyone, bad. A company would love to have a handful of employees and a billion robots making products, but if no one has a job to buy it, they obviously won't be happy. Likewise with things like the minimum wage, contributing towards public transport etc. BUT the exciting thing here is that there's no real baseline expectation for profit. This means that even if there is 50% unemployment and so these companies have a much smaller marketshare, they might find that selling cheap - which they can afford to do because their costs will be so low - will net them more profit (in the same way that VW and Ferrari make profit, though VW makes far more). This competition drives down costs. As an example of this in action, see the cost of SMS's - they used to be (in the UK) 5, 10, sometimes 12p a pop. Eventually the market forced them to lower the costs to basically free now, and the market could force them to do it because the cost to them of supplying the service is so low. There's only so much inequality a market can take before it's forced to recalibrate.

 

[alstein]

Judging by the arriving FinMin's comments a debt cut seems out of the question for most of them. Which means Greece could maybe get a slightly better offer than the one they refused, which was not at all what the people in the referendum voted for.

Yeah no, I don't see it happening unless Merkel and Hollande get poisened by bad Ouzo or something and change their mind.

In which case- Greeks will take action unilaterally and force the issue (probably Grexit), then troika looks for a new punching bag while Greece has it very bad for a few years.

As for the IMF, I suspect they'll be stubborn until the end but it won't get them anywhere.

 

[ElTorro]

Interesting read on the position of the more poorer states in the Eurozone.

http://www.politico.eu/article/berl...ck-for-greece-grexit-default-debt-referendum/

Berlin isn’t the only roadblock for Greece

Riga, Tallinn, Dublin and other capitals that cut back during the eurozone crisis won't be eager to fold.

Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras celebrated his referendum success as a “victory of democracy,” but in other European democracies which have tightened their belts, showing any further generosity to Athens would be a hard sell to voters.

The prospect of providing more funding for Greece and deferring to its demand for a reduction of its outstanding debt — a crushing 180 percent of GDP — is an especially sore point in eurozone countries that have gone through deep recessions of their own and struggled back to economic health, often by taking the same austerity medicine so fiercely resisted by the Greeks.

To get a deal, Athens must make its case not to Paris and Berlin, but also to Riga, Tallinn, Dublin and other capitals.

The experience of many of Greece’s eurozone partners means, at the emergency eurozone summit Tuesday, Tsipras may hear less support for debt relief and more about buckling down and undertaking the same kind of painful reforms that they did.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

It's funny that while everyone attacks Greece, no one is saying anything about USA's enormous debt/budget deficit. Imagine if China (USA's biggest creditor) tried to impose austerity on USA, just because "Americans have been living beyond their means for decades". That could potentially ignite WW3.

Then again USA is a sovereign country with its own currency and they can print as many dollars as they want. Greece lost half of its sovereignty when they joined the Eurozone.

I would say it's the US gov't dictating what can be done and what can't be done in the Federal Reserve System with USD assets. Plus, the US gov't asserting treasuries are the safest/most liquid asset that earns interest within it. You don't necessarily have to bring money creation into it.

This man outlined this years ago when the US want to raise taxes and cut spending following the financial crisis.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Frank_N._Newman

http://www.amazon.com/dp/098398851X/?tag=neogaf0e-20

 

[Peyotl]

Well, maybe, maybe not. One of the ironies of neoliberalism is that what's good for an individual company would be, if enacted by everyone, bad. A company would love to have a handful of employees and a billion robots making products, but if no one has a job to buy it, they obviously won't be happy. Likewise with things like the minimum wage, contributing towards public transport etc. BUT the exciting thing here is that there's no real baseline expectation for profit. This means that even if there is 50% unemployment and so these companies have a much smaller marketshare, they might find that selling cheap - which they can afford to do because their costs will be so low - will net them more profit (in the same way that VW and Ferrari make profit, though VW makes far more). This competition drives down costs. As an example of this in action, see the cost of SMS's - they used to be (in the UK) 5, 10, sometimes 12p a pop. Eventually the market forced them to lower the costs to basically free now, and the market could force them to do it because the cost to them of supplying the service is so low. There's only so much inequality a market can take before it's forced to recalibrate.

But would this (if it happens on a large scale) leading to a shrinking economy, increasing the misery for the new mass-unemployed (since not every product or service can be produced and sold "basically free"? How would a market "recalibrate" to counter these developments?

 

[mjontrix]

so apparently Greece has offered a proposal which is basically almost the same which they denied and held a referendum against.

This is either a tactic on n-levels beyond my understanding or the headless chicken is back in action.

They're smart - Germany can't take the hit that'll result from greece leaving - Deutsche Bank in particular.

 

[Coriolanus]

Interesting read on the position of the more poorer states in the Eurozone.

http://www.politico.eu/article/berl...ck-for-greece-grexit-default-debt-referendum/

Yes, it isn't exactly a new point. One of those things that looks really weird until you factor realpolitik. Instead of helping Greece in order to push for the same benefits to themselves, they'd rather drag them down further.

My mistake, billion.

The part that was relieved in 2012, is never going to return to their banks.

Such is the risk of making deals with thieves. Hard to feel bad for the lenders when they've also beneffited. Can sympathize with the voters in creditor countries who were sold a lie, obviously.
Mind you, i'm not for lending more to the Greeeks, no strings attached.

 

[ElTorro]

Yes, it isn't exactly a new point. One of those things that looks really weird until you factor realpolitik. Instead of helping Greece in order to push for the same benefits to themselves, they'd rather drag them down further.

If all economically challenged states, including Spain, Portugal, and Italy, would push for benefits, the question arises whether the richer states of the Eurozone could afford it, even if they wanted.

 

[Theonik]

If all economically challenged states, including Spain, Portugal, and Italy, would push for benefits, the question arises whether the richer states of the Eurozone could afford it, even if they wanted.

Transfer union!

 

[CyclopsRock]

But would this (if it happens on a large scale) leading to a shrinking economy, increasing the misery for the new mass-unemployed (since not every product or service can be produced and sold "basically free"? How would a market "recalibrate" to counter these developments?

There'd need to be some form of minimum income, but there's lots of support around the political spectrum for something like that (and it hasn't been implemented yet because, basically, we aren't at that stage yet. Lots of countries still have low unemployment rates.) But I think we'll get there inevitably. Once there's a baseline income for all people, products will have a "target" price point, considering that.

 

[Joni]

Instead of helping Greece in order to push for the same benefits to themselves, they'd rather drag them down further.

The problem is, they don't need the benefits. They have put in the work. They don't understand how a richer country can't.

 

[PdotMichael]

Yes, it isn't exactly a new point. One of those things that looks really weird until you factor realpolitik. Instead of helping Greece in order to push for the same benefits to themselves, they'd rather drag them down further.



Such is the risk of making deals with thieves. Hard to feel bad for the lenders when they've also beneffited. Can sympathize with the voters in creditor countries who were sold a lie, obviously.
Mind you, i'm not for lending more to the Greeeks, no strings attached.

Only that many of the states don't see Greece as a poor state. After all Greece's GDP per capita is still higher than many of the other EU states.

 

[Coriolanus]

If all economically challenged states, including Spain, Portugal, and Italy, would push for benefits, the question arises whether the richer states of the Eurozone could afford it, even if they wanted.

Fiat currency. Would have to change the rules and drop maastricht, but yes.

The problem is, they don't need the benefits. They have put in the work. They don't understand how a richer country can't.

Yes, because people want to keep living in worse standards just for kicks.

 

[norinrad]

Transfer union!

Yeah well the line has to be drawn someone and it ends with Greece. There will be no more transfer. Time to stand on your own and start producing things that people want to import. Spain, Portugal, Italy, Croatia, France and Turkey all have the sun too. People don't necessarily have to go to Greece for vacation

 

[Theonik]

There'd need to be some form of minimum income, but there's lots of support around the political spectrum for something like that (and it hasn't been implemented yet because, basically, we aren't at that stage yet. Lots of countries still have low unemployment rates.) But I think we'll get there inevitably. Once there's a baseline income for all people, products will have a "target" price point, considering that.

I think a system like that is beneficial even before we get to that point. The Swiss were actually considering it but it was rejected.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Fiat currency. Would have to change the rules and drop maastricht, but yes.

You still have fundamentally the same problem as now. What's a beneficial fiscal policy for one bloc is bad for the other, whichever way you slice it. Since this is so overwhelmingly self evidence, what's the end game for the currency union here? It feels like when you know you need to break up with someone but it's not that bad so why not just delay it another weekend, until after Christmas, maybe wait til after we get back from holiday etc. Next thing you know, you're getting stabbed in the larynx at the age of 42 as two decades of seething resentments come out in one mighty stab after her work christmas party where that fucking whore got off with Jim the IT guy, I fucking knew she liked Jim, you could just tell the way she was always telling stories, oh "Jim told me this really funny story earlier", "Oh, Jim said he's been to that Italian restaurant in town, he said it was really nice but stay away from the oysters, I wish we eat Oysters and did cultural things CyclopsRock" WELL I'M FUCKING SICK OF IT ALRIGHT?

I mean, yeah, why not break it off now?

 

[operon]

Yes, it isn't exactly a new point. One of those things that looks really weird until you factor realpolitik. Instead of helping Greece in order to push for the same benefits to themselves, they'd rather drag them down further.



Such is the risk of making deals with thieves. Hard to feel bad for the lenders when they've also beneffited. Can sympathize with the voters in creditor countries who were sold a lie, obviously.
Mind you, i'm not for lending more to the Greeeks, no strings attached.

Considering the ECB basically forced Ireland into dealing with the IMFand Irish taxpayers carrying the can for the anglo irish bank etc, it would go down like a lead balloon