Support NeoGAF

[HarryHengst]

Greece can quit Euro any time they want. They joined voluntarily, and can leave whenever they want.

Also, you could lower the standard of living until you can afford to live like you do. We in Finland have had to do this, cuts in education, elderly care, they want to increase retirement age etc. It hurts, but it must be done. This should have been done in Greece before the debt crisis though, there are only bad options now.

No, it should not have been done. Thats just a lie. Politicians chose to do it because why tax corporations more and implement a tax on financial transactions and such when you can just fuck over workers?

 

[benjipwns]

Show the graphic before 2008

 

[Randomizer123454444]

No, it should not have been done. Thats just a lie. Politicians chose to do it because why tax corporations more and implement a tax on financial transactions and such when you can just fuck over workers?

Sorry, I didn't mean the examples I gave should have been implemented in Greece. I just meant that it would have been 10x easier to do structural reforms before debt crisis, than it is now after the crisis.

 

[East Lake]

That graph by itself is meaningless.
If their spending in 2008 was WAY WAY too high (which it was), it would still be too high at 80%.
And the main problem, tackling tax evasion and tax fraud in order to get a higher income so that you can spend more is still largerly ignored.

It's amazing they were bailed out with how irresponsible they were. Maybe the Germans should take responsibility for such risky lending!

.

Benji pls. Should they cut more?

 

[patapuf]

There is talk about doing diseaster relief-like humanitarian help to Greece. So sending the medicine instead of giving greeks money to buy them.

That said, failure to have drugs avaible is on Greek's goverment shoulders, not EU. You can't expect EU to shoulder all the responsibility without also giving it all the goverment power in Greece.
This is the main problem with Euro. A common currency can work long term only if it's followed by common goverment rule. EU expected it to happen naturally as a result of fiscal union, but it didn't.

As a swiss, a federal union isn't a small task to manage and if that is indeed the end goal of the EU it will take a very long time (or a big war) to get any semblance of it, not just 10-20 years.

Managing 3 language regions with different cultures is already difficult, and you already have all the conflicts present in this discussion on a smaller scale. The small guys feeling they don't have enough of a say, clash of cultures in national elections, rich vs. poor states arguing ect. It took a lot of propaganda during the World wars as well as good economic prospects afterwards to make it work.

Culturally at least somewhat uniting the whole EU so that it's citizen feel solidarity for each other and as belonging to one big group is no small task and such multicultural nationstates haven't exatly been particularily stable throughout history. I think people underestimate the challenges of a "united states of Europe".

 

[Rourkey]

At least one politician of the euro creating era knew what they were talking about

http://youtu.be/5TPpuIslzG4

 

[HarryHengst]

Sorry, I didn't mean the examples I gave should have been implemented in Greece. I just meant that it would have been 10x easier to do structural reforms before debt crisis, than it is now after the crisis.

True, but the Troika has basically been in control for the past years, and previous Greek governments were a lot friendlier towards the 'suggestions' offered by the troika. Yet all that happened was a massive increase in debt and a 25% gdp loss. So hmm, perhaps the troika was completely wrong in their prescribed policies?!

The research division of the IMF of all institutions has been saying that austerity is wrong and hurtful for the last couple of years, yet the leaders of the IMF still push for implementation. So something there isnt right, and it seems politics are playing a much bigger part in deciding what to do than anything else.

 

[benjipwns]

Benji pls. Should they cut more?

No, I think they just don't have the right amount of debt. Maybe if they accumulate a bit more it'll turn things around.

I mean look at those graphs, it goes up gradually a tiny amount over years and could have been reversed easily, what they need is to floor it like a real country:

 

[oti]

So which 2 out of the 18 countries do you suspect to be against the Grexit?

I'd put Germany (Merkel wouldn't admit she was wrong about austerity), Finland (they really don't want to see Greece get the easy way out), Slovakia, Spain, Portugal, Austria in the Yes to Grexit camp.

So maybe France and Italy in the no to the Grexit camp?

 

[jakonovski]

Well.then we're not barbarians and the drugs won't run out. So..what are you exactly complaining about?

They are running out, it's not a given that aid will come. I'm appalled it got this far. The failure of Greek government to perform its duties doesn't absolve us of humanitarian responsilibity.

 

[Alabamaman]

Sorry, I didn't mean the examples I gave should have been implemented in Greece. I just meant that it would have been 10x easier to do structural reforms before debt crisis, than it is now after the crisis.

The same applies to Finland too. At least we got the socialists and the greens out, so maybe we'll get on the right path.

 

[Theonik]

Am I interpreting that right that you blame austerity for a possible humanitarian crisis within the next couple of weeks (at least in medical supplies)?

I am blaming a focus on increasing debt to pay an unpayable debt that no-one wants to own up to being unpayable (on both sides, now just the creditors) and a resulting policy that has basically devastated a nation's ability to function, for directly affecting the well-being of its people.

 

[Wiktor]

Culturally at least somewhat uniting the whole EU so that it's citizen feel solidarity for each other and as belonging to one big group is no small task and such multicultural nationstates haven't exatly been particularily stable throughout history.

Yes. And it's only getting harder. Good luck trying to explain to people from Slovenia why they should feel bad for Greece, when Greeks are still getting retirement pensions twice as high.
Long term it might be the worst effect of the economic crisis. The economy will rebound sooner or later, even in Greece. But will the solidarity in EU do too?

 

[Rourkey]

So which 2 out of the 18 countries do you suspect to be against the Grexit?

I'd put Germany (Merkel wouldn't admit she was wrong about austerity), Finland (they really don't want to see Greece get the easy way out), Slovakia, Spain, Portugal, Austria in the Yes to Grexit camp.

So maybe France and Italy in the no to the Grexit camp?

Why was Merkel wrong about austerity? It's worked in every other country and has rightly or wrongly kept the Eurozone together, it's only the Greeks who haven't used the time to sort out tax evaders, corruption and archaic working practices that are about to be given the boot and she's used the time to build up the defences to limit contagion.

 

[oti]

Love how Lagarde seems to be the only sane person here. She doesn't have to face voters in her country, she's just stating economic facts. Greece needs a debt cut, end of story.

 

[jakonovski]

The same applies to Finland too. At least we got the socialists and the greens out, so maybe we'll get on the right path.

Mmm, persu (True Finn populist party) I presume. Kinda funny you blame the socialists and greens for the centre/conservative governments of the past decade.

 

[Wiktor]

They are running out, it's not a given that aid will come. I'm appalled it got this far. The failure of Greek government to perform its duties doesn't absolve us of humanitarian responsilibity.

They didn't run out yet and there are already talks of aid. So you are appalled for no real reason.

 

[benjipwns]

They also need long-term graphs that look like this:

Look how tiny it makes the current debt seem.

 

[Theonik]

Love how Lagarde seems to be the only sane person here. She doesn't have to face voters in her country, she's just stating economic facts. Greece needs a debt cut, end of story.

Lagarde is is this weird position where she actually cares about getting her money back which is what the other creditors also claim but are taking the reverse steps to doing so.

But Lagarde is also a hypocrite, the IMF is in the unique position that they can't get haircuts, they can't be defaulted on and are going to get their money back either way so are more interested at this point in Greece being functional because that's when they get paid.

It's really weird.

Edit:

Why was Merkel wrong about austerity? It's worked in every other country and has rightly or wrongly kept the Eurozone together, it's only the Greeks who haven't used the time to sort out tax evaders, corruption and archaic working practices that are about to be given the boot and she's used the time to build up the defences to limit contagion.

Did it really? After all this time you only see tiny improvements in these nations that don't correspond to what we have seen in other nations which did not opt for austerity.

 

[jakonovski]

They didn't run out yet and there are already talks of aid. So you are appalled for no real reason.

Yeah right, I'll bet dollars to donuts you didn't even know of the medicine issue until you read my post.

 

[oti]

Lagarde is is this weird position where she actually cares about getting her money back which is what the other creditors also claim but are taking the reverse steps to doing so.

But Lagarde is also a hypocrite, the IMF is in the unique position that they can't get haircuts, they can't be defaulted on and are going to get their money back either way so are more interested at this point in Greece being functional because that's when they get paid.

It's really weird.

It's like Game of Thrones but with more backstabbing.

 

[Alabamaman]

Mmm, persu (True Finn populist party) I presume. Kinda funny you blame the socialists and greens for the centre/conservative governments of the past decade.

No shame in admitting that. What did the red/greens do to change anything? Increase government spending, accept more bailouts. They have no spine.

 

[East Lake]

No, I think they just don't have the right amount of debt. Maybe if they accumulate a bit more it'll turn things around.

I mean look at those graphs, it goes up gradually a tiny amount over years and could have been reversed easily, what they need is to floor it like a real country:
http://i.imgur.com/MfNBF1P.jpg

Come on dude that's not even inflation adjusted! If Greece waits long enough the job creators will turn it around with all the unemployed, or even free laborers available, and exceptionally low prices. It'll happen any day now!

 

[benjipwns]

I think what the EU, Greece and IMF and everyone else should do is ask Donald Trump to suspend his Presidential campaign and take care of this mess.

 

[Wiktor]

Yeah right, I'll bet dollars to donuts you didn't even know of the medicine issue until you read my post.

Yeah..it's not like german talks about preparing for humanitarian aid weren't on front pages of most of EU news outlets yesterdays. You sure uncovered a true secret. Without you the whole world wouldn't know

 

[Rourkey]

Lagarde is is this weird position where she actually cares about getting her money back which is what the other creditors also claim but are taking the reverse steps to doing so.

But Lagarde is also a hypocrite, the IMF is in the unique position that they can't get haircuts, they can't be defaulted on and are going to get their money back either way so are more interested at this point in Greece being functional because that's when they get paid.

It's really weird.

Edit:

Did it really? After all this time you only see tiny improvements in these nations that don't correspond to what we have seen in other nations which did not opt for austerity.

The imf should never have gotten involved in Greece, it was a job for the Eurozone to sort out, they have already been far more lenient on Greece than they would have with 3rd world countries much to their dismay.

 

[luso]

Greek incomes, broken into nine tiers, inflation indexed.

Interesting chart. There was a big jump starting from 1995. Honest question, did the productivity/GDP increased at the same rate up to 2010? I don't think so, usually such increase in public sector dependent countries are attached to policies increasing public sectors workers salaries while there is no productivity increase. But of course that's only a part of the equation.

 

[Alabamaman]

I think what the EU, Greece and IMF and everyone else should do is ask Donald Trump to suspend his Presidential campaign and take care of this mess.

He could take care of immigration crisis all right.

 

[Theonik]

It's like Game of Thrones but with more backstabbing.

A democratic union to protect our common interest right there.

 

[jakonovski]

No shame in admitting that. What did the red/greens do to change anything? Increase government spending, accept more bailouts. They have no spine.

I'm not disputing the need for change, I'm finding it funny that you blame mostly conservative governments on reds and greens. Jyrki Käteinen doesn't have a nickname for nothing. The fact is our consensus politics created a stalemate where nobody was willing to do anything except kick the can and suck up to eurocrats. The greatest responsibility is on Kokoomus (National Coalition, right wing conservative), then Keskusta (Centre Party, ex-agrarian party), then SDP (Social Democrats). Greens and the Left Alliance barely factor into it at all.

 

[Reuenthal]

So which 2 out of the 18 countries do you suspect to be against the Grexit?

I'd put Germany (Merkel wouldn't admit she was wrong about austerity), Finland (they really don't want to see Greece get the easy way out), Slovakia, Spain, Portugal, Austria in the Yes to Grexit camp.

So maybe France and Italy in the no to the Grexit camp?

Everyone forgets Cyprus.

 

[Theonik]

The imf should never have gotten involved in Greece, it was a job for the Eurozone to sort out, they have already been far more lenient on Greece than they would have with 3rd world countries much to their dismay.

Blame Merkel and that incompetent Papandreou. The IMF was her suggestion since she was worried that Greece might default on its debts otherwise and not pay back. The ECB director at the time thought it was a stupid idea there and then and thought it was something the Eurozone should maturely sort out.

Merkel had other plans though and pushed the IMF to make the bailouts against the fund's better judgement. Lagarde picked up this mess from her predecessor and is probably really resenting the current state of affairs.

Edit:

Everyone forgets Cyprus.

I'm not sure. Cyprus has been weird. But Merkel and Hollande had a meeting to discuss Grexit so perhaps Merkel convinced him.

 

[Deleted member 231381]

Love how Lagarde seems to be the only sane person here. She doesn't have to face voters in her country, she's just stating economic facts. Greece needs a debt cut, end of story.

Eh, she does need to face all the representatives of the participant countries of the IMF, some of whom are not happy about Greece's perceived lenient treatment. There's strong mutterings about keeping Europeans away from the role of IMF head in the future in favour of developing world economists, so I think she is also in a difficult position.

 

[Theonik]

Eh, she does need to face all the representatives of the participant countries of the IMF, some of whom are not happy about Greece's perceived lenient treatment. There's strong mutterings about keeping Europeans away from the role of IMF head in the future in favour of developing world economists, so I think she is also in a difficult position.

Lagarde is pretty much screwed.

 

[TheLaughingStock]

No, I think they just don't have the right amount of debt. Maybe if they accumulate a bit more it'll turn things around.

I mean look at those graphs, it goes up gradually a tiny amount over years and could have been reversed easily, what they need is to floor it like a real country:

Maybe they could have yields that look like this

Or economic performance like this if they took inspiration from the US on how things are done. And I mean the US hasn't been smart, but they're not as dumb as the troika.

 

[Alabamaman]

I'm not disputing the need for change, I'm finding it funny that you blame mostly conservative governments on reds and greens. Jyrki Käteinen doesn't have a nickname for nothing. The fact is our consensus politics created a stalemate where nobody was willing to do anything except kick the can and suck up to eurocrats. The greatest responsibility is on Kokoomus (National Coalition, right wing conservative), then Keskusta (Centre Party, ex-agrarian party), then SDP (Social Democrats). Greens and the Left Alliance barely factor into it at all.

Yeah, Käteinen was a disaster, we'll make money out of bailouts for sure. The consensus 6pack did absolutely nothing to make things better.

I hope Soini can kick some sense to their heads.

 

[CyclopsRock]

No, it should not have been done. Thats just a lie. Politicians chose to do it because why tax corporations more and implement a tax on financial transactions and such when you can just fuck over workers?

Financial transaction taxes are utter lunacy though, within the EU at least.

 

[Alabamaman]

Financial transaction taxes are utter lunacy though, within the EU at least.

Transactions to tax havens should be taxed heavily though.

 

[petran79]

A good chunk of that is likely due to the desirability of Greek land. Based on a question someone posed in the prior thread I looked up real estate in Athens and stuff is expensive. Greeks who own homes are doing well based on the home prices.

I ignored the high end, luxury prices, but looking at South Athens, 1 bedroom condos were priced at ~200-250k euro dollars and 2 bedroom places were going for ~250-400k euro dollars. Some were higher, some lower, but those prices seem to cover the majority based on scrolling through a few pages.

http://www.homegreekhome.com/en/search/results/residential/sale/r102/m102m?ref=homepageMapSearchSR

That kind of value isn't quite at SF levels of pricing, but it is still some pretty valuable housing.

Out on the islands land is a little cheaper, but it's also more difficult to access.

One question that does come to mind (as an American) is why haven't Greek housing costs corrected themselves and taken a downturn with the economy? While the housing downturn was painful for many in the US who had overextended themselves, as the economy went down so did the housing costs, which ultimately enabled many others to be able to afford their first home.

Granted we had some extreme cases (like Detroit) where the value pretty much went to zero and that wasn't the standard for the country, but housing values everywhere did take a nosedive.

And as the recovery has come (stronger to the SF area because it dropped the least and started rebounding first) we're seeing similar things locally where people simply can't afford the cost of living and are being forced to move out of the area to places with a lower cost of living.

House prices did take a downturn too, after the house estate bubble burst.
Unfortunately investing in housing does not yield any productivity in the long run. Houses just stay there costing money.
You have to take into consideration that plot prices have dropped as well.

Eg one colleague said they had bought a plot for 40.000 Euro and it had devalued to 15.000 Euro. At that time some buyers from Germany were interested into buying, but the owners refused. This would be practically a giveaway!

Even the house construction business has dwindled.

But this did yield its results. Where Greece is cheap compared to other countries are rents. A considerable amount of Greeks own usually more than one apartments, a lot of which are empty and unused, so they look for ways to get profit. Though sometimes renting may prove more costly in the long run, since the owner has to pay extra to repair any damages.

Students and those seeking work elsewhere can find cheap flats or apartments for 150-250 Euros. In countries like Italy, Germany or UK those would cost 600-1000 Euro. Though situation got so much worse that a lot of students prefer to stay with their families, choosing a nearby university, instead of venturing to a distant region.

Rent in islands though is more expensive than in continental Greece.

 

[Peyotl]

Serious question:
is there any form of initiative (or whatever) that offers a clear vision out of the current mess(es)?

Points may include
- institutional reforms in the EU (so that they are not dominated by national agendas)
- restructure the finance sector
- reform mass media (to break the power of the boulevard)
- taking a firm humanistic stance when dealing with international crisis (refugees, ...)
...

I am just slowly beginning to develop an interest in political matters (I know, shame on me), but I am a bit surprised/worried by the lack of any concrete (long-term) visions.

 

[HarryHengst]

Serious question:
is there any form of initiative (or whatever) that offers a clear vision out of the current mess(es)?

Points may include
- institutional reforms in the EU (so that they are not dominated by national agendas)
- restructure the finance sector
- reform mass media (to break the power of the boulevard)
- taking a firm humanistic stance when dealing with international crisis (refugees, ...)
...

I am just slowly beginning to develop an interest in political matters (I know, shame on me), but I am a bit surprised/worried by the lack of any concrete (long-term) visions.

If you want long-term visions, stay out of politics. Politicians cannot afford to look further than the next election, due to the nature of the political system.

 

[norinrad]

As a swiss, a federal union isn't a small task to manage and if that is indeed the end goal of the EU it will take a very long time (or a big war) to get any semblance of it, not just 10-20 years.

Managing 3 language regions with different cultures is already difficult, and you already have all the conflicts present in this discussion on a smaller scale. The small guys feeling they don't have enough of a say, clash of cultures in national elections, rich vs. poor states arguing ect. It took a lot of propaganda during the World wars as well as good economic prospects afterwards to make it work.

Culturally at least somewhat uniting the whole EU so that it's citizen feel solidarity for each other and as belonging to one big group is no small task and such multicultural nationstates haven't exatly been particularily stable throughout history. I think people underestimate the challenges of a "united states of Europe".

THIS

If you ask most people here in Northern Europe whether they care about Ukraine, Hungary or Bulgaria, most would tell you no and won't care if they are being attacked. Ask them the same about Sweden, Denmark, Norway, Finland or the Netherlands and most would say our way of life and freedom is being attacked and everything should be done to prevent that. A united Europe is just a dream of people who watch too much star trek.

 

[Peyotl]

If you want long-term visions, stay out of politics. Politicians cannot afford to look further than the next election, due to the nature of the political system.

But there were times when it was possible.
There must be ways to change the democratic process in order to make it more resilient against extreme short-sightedness, provincialism and populism.
I hope.

 

[norinrad]

Eh, she does need to face all the representatives of the participant countries of the IMF, some of whom are not happy about Greece's perceived lenient treatment. There's strong mutterings about keeping Europeans away from the role of IMF head in the future in favour of developing world economists, so I think she is also in a difficult position.

She is screwed whichever way you look at things, if the next IMF head comes from the west, the IMF will implode and most of all the developing and 3rd world countries will go to the new Chinese version of the IMF. China is just waiting and watching.

 

[Negotiator]

No, I think they just don't have the right amount of debt. Maybe if they accumulate a bit more it'll turn things around.

I mean look at those graphs, it goes up gradually a tiny amount over years and could have been reversed easily, what they need is to floor it like a real country:

It's funny that while everyone attacks Greece, no one is saying anything about USA's enormous debt/budget deficit. Imagine if China (USA's biggest creditor) tried to impose austerity on USA, just because "Americans have been living beyond their means for decades". That could potentially ignite WW3.

Then again USA is a sovereign country with its own currency and they can print as many dollars as they want. Greece lost half of its sovereignty when they joined the Eurozone.

There are only 2 possible solutions: they either lose their remaining sovereignty in favour of a supranational government (United States of Europe) or they claim back their entire sovereignty by printing their own currency. There's no other alternative.

So maybe France and Italy in the no to the Grexit camp?

Most likely. They're afraid of becoming the next scapegoats as soon as Greece leaves.

Serious question:
is there any form of initiative (or whatever) that offers a clear vision out of the current mess(es)?

Points may include
- institutional reforms in the EU (so that they are not dominated by national agendas)
- restructure the finance sector
- reform mass media (to break the power of the boulevard)
- taking a firm humanistic stance when dealing with international crisis (refugees, ...)

No, apparently it's just Greece that needs reforms, not the EU itself.

 

[CyclopsRock]

Serious question:
is there any form of initiative (or whatever) that offers a clear vision out of the current mess(es)?

Points may include
- institutional reforms in the EU (so that they are not dominated by national agendas)
- restructure the finance sector
- reform mass media (to break the power of the boulevard)
- taking a firm humanistic stance when dealing with international crisis (refugees, ...)
...

I am just slowly beginning to develop an interest in political matters (I know, shame on me), but I am a bit surprised/worried by the lack of any concrete (long-term) visions.

All those policies are basically just "greater European intervention" because they all rely on a lessening of national sovereignty. I'm not sure that's an ideal that's particularly in vogue right now.

 

[norinrad]

By the way didn't the current Greek government promise the banks would be open right after the elections?

 

[Rourkey]

Serious question:
is there any form of initiative (or whatever) that offers a clear vision out of the current mess(es)?

Points may include
- institutional reforms in the EU (so that they are not dominated by national agendas)
- restructure the finance sector
- reform mass media (to break the power of the boulevard)
- taking a firm humanistic stance when dealing with international crisis (refugees, ...)
...

I am just slowly beginning to develop an interest in political matters (I know, shame on me), but I am a bit surprised/worried by the lack of any concrete (long-term) visions.

It's visions that got us into this mess in the first place! When have visions ever been good?

 

[Peyotl]

It's visions that got us into this mess in the first place! When have visions ever been good?

Is this a serious question?
(sorry, sometimes I have a hard to differentiate between serious discussion and internet cynicism)

 

[Theonik]

By the way didn't the current Greek government promise the banks would be open right after the elections?