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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures

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NickFire

NickFire

Member
Theonik said:
Not really no. Defaulting actually increases the value of the new currency as markets do not expect that you would Zimbabwe yourself out of your debt.

As for why they'd be better than continuing in the current arrangement, Greece, has for all intents and purposes defaulted. The distinction at the moment is purely political and diplomatic.

No-one actually expects them to pay. They in essence see many of the adverse effects of a default without any benefit.

Edit:

Imports will be painful for the next months to couple of years after the default but the value of the new currency should quickly rise, the resulting drop in importing as Greek people can't afford them means their trade deficit will drop in effect increasing the value of their currency.
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Thank you for the perspective, but the idea anyone will want anything to do with their currency seems shaky to me. But I'm not a financial broker or anything like that, so for all I know you might be right.
 
J

Joni

Member
Ether_Snake said:
How do you go for Grexit without the population's support? You get the worst deal you can get, and call for elections. Syriza can run on that if they want, they just need new candidates here and there.
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The opposition could however just point out it is actually Syriza that offered this terrible deal. That they had to get a worse deal than before specifally because of their actions, that they killed all the growth Greece had achieved. Who knows, maybe the Greek opposition parties are incompetent enough.
 
E

Ether_Snake

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ClosingADoor said:
You think Tsipras is doing this on purpose to get out of the Euro?

It is their plan. No way he gets re-elected if he goes this route.

Maybe they get a lot of cuts in return, or that 13 billion is over a lot and lot of years.
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That's why I said he will step down and Varoufakis will run for PM.
 
P

PdotMichael

Banned
ElTorro said:
Killing himself politically by submitting a proposal that (supposedly, we don't have it yet after all) goes 100% against the pompous referendum he just held and rallied for a few days ago?
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Just wait, the proposal gets declined somehow agaom and he doesn't need to take responsiblity for another time.
 
E

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
Joni said:
The opposition could however just point out it is actually Syriza that offered this terrible deal. That they had to get a worse deal than before specifally because of their actions, that they killed all the growth Greece had achieved. Who knows, maybe the Greek opposition parties are incompetent enough.
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But you forget Syriza couldn't exit then, and the opposition would not ask to exit. Syriza without Tsipras and with Varoufakis had PM candidate would run on an exit. It makes sense.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
PdotMichael said:
Just wait, the proposal gets declined somehow agaom and he doesn't need to take responsiblity for another time.
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That doesn't matter. Just the act of submitting such a proposal would kill him politically.

Another explanation could be that Tsipras never intended to goo with a Grexit as last resort, but instead was indeed delusional enough to think that his referendum would impress the creditors.
 
K

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
Ether_Snake said:
How do you go for Grexit without the population's support? You get the worst deal you can get, and call for elections. Syriza can run on that if they want, they just need new candidates here and there.

Of course, the damage will have to be done first to get enough support fir Grexit, but any agreement will do enough.
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The population rejected a better offer last Sunday. They have even less support for this kind of plan. The grexit is not decided by Tsipras, would be decided by EU and can be blamed on EU. This plan can be blamed just on Tsipras. I still think there must be some compensation. He doesn't look that insane.

Ether_Snake said:
That's why I said he will step down and Varoufakis will run for PM.
Click to expand...

That could work only if Varoufakis would make a strong statement before the Parliament vote tomorrow. Or even better, tonight. The proposal is already submitted.
 
N

Napalm_Frank

Member
helloresolven said:
What was the point of the referendum if they just accepted the austerity demands?
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This is totally out of my ass but having done the referendum Syriza would have much easier time in the eyes of the populace if Grexit were to happen. Now of course it will put them in a VERY bad light if they sign a deal even worse than pre-referendum but I can imagine being responsible of Greece when it leaves the EZ is a very scary position even for seasoned politicians. Signing the deal would be super shitty for them in the eyes of Greeks (especially the ones that voted no) but they would continue the relatively ''easy'' job of being in Troikas (minus IMF?) leash.
 
J

Joni

Member
Ether_Snake said:
But you forget Syriza couldn't exit then, and the opposition would not ask to exit. Syriza without Tsipras and with Varoufakis had PM candidate would run on an exit. It makes sense.
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"Hey guys, we have to exit because the thing we negotiated even worse after the last referendum. You don't mind we're running out of food, medicine, paper and money, right?"
Syriza wouldn't be the only party running on a Grexit program, they would be the only ones blamed for bringing them in that position and for trying to sell out the country.
If there are competent speakers in other parties, this carries a huge risk, especially if ECB lets the banks default.
 
C

chadskin

Member
ElTorro said:
That doesn't matter. Just the act of submitting such a proposal would kill him politically.

Another explanation could be that Tsipras never intended to goo with a Grexit as last resort, but instead was indeed delusional enough to think that his referendum would impress the creditors.
Click to expand...

Tsipras said pretty bluntly he doesn't think Germany et al would let Greece default, basically too big to fail, posing too high of a risk to the German/Eurozone economy. I wouldn't be surprised if Varoufakis was the one who urged him to gamble and was then cut loose by Tsipras when a Grexit suddenly became a very real scenario.
 
L

le-seb

Member
ElTorro said:
That doesn't matter. Just the act of submitting such a proposal would kill him politically.
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I wouldn't bet on it.

If a serious debt cut / restructuring follows, this can put the country back on tracks.
If not, he will have tried doing his best, at least.
 
H

Heartfyre

Member
ElTorro said:
Should all of this turn put to be true, and should all parties in the end really agree on a 13 billion austerity program mainly formulated by the Institutions, then I would officially declare to not understand anymore what's going on. Unless they shoehorned some huge debt relief into that proposal that offsets the austerity measures. No way Syriza can sell this to the Greek people otherwise.
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According to the Guardian, this is how Syriza are seeing it:

Syriza MPs have been telling our Helena Smith that the big no received in the referendum on Sunday was a “confidence vote” in Tsipras who like no other prime minister before now has the popular support to enforce such punitive measures.
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Which is definitely the most creative interpretation of that OXI vote I have yet seen.
 
N

Negotiator

Member
ElTorro said:
I know it's not important, but since we are on NeoGAF... in case of a Grext, will GreekGAF still be able to purchase video games, or will MGS5 cost 10 trillion in that new currency?
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I think it's ridiculous to compare Greece to Zimbabwe.

Realistically speaking, the new drachma would be worth 25-50 eurocents (basically around the same value as the Bulgarian Lev/Turkish Lira). Sure it's bad, but not as bad as ZWD's hyperinflation. Don't listen to Mitsotakis' scaremongering.

ps: GreekGAF could have easily pre-ordered games if they wanted to (before the capital controls were imposed, that is). Custom controls would be a bitch tho.
 
S

sflufan

Banned
Heartfyre said:
According to the Guardian, this is how Syriza are seeing it:



Which is definitely the most creative interpretation of that OXI vote I have yet seen.
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Oh it's creative alright. Creative to the point of delusional perhaps.

I can't wait to see the reaction of the unions and other left-wing elements when this finally becomes public.
 
L

Loona

Member
ElTorro said:
I know it's not important, but since we are on NeoGAF... in case of a Grext, will GreekGAF still be able to purchase video games, or will MGS5 cost 10 trillion in that new currency?
Click to expand...

I think a better question is, are there Greek-made games on playforms like Steam that GAF can campaign to mass buy, pitching in toward their economy even if just a little?
 
S

sflufan

Banned
The Greek government put the proposal together with assistance from France.

Cue the jokes about getting help from a country that knows a thing or two about surrendering to the Germans.
 
C

chadskin

Member
Staggering telephone poll results from a day before the referendum:

consequencesNO.png


A majority believed "No" would lead to new negotiations while a "Yes" would lead to a Grexit.

via: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...eres-a-poll-taken-just-before-the-referendum/

e: Or not so staggering! ;X
An overwhelming majority of those who voted no– about 88 percent — believed that, as a result of an OXI vote, negotiations would continue, as you can see below. Only 5 percent believed that a no vote would mean Greece would exit the euro zone.

By contrast, those who voted yes were much more worried about Grexit. In fact, 61 percent of them believed that would be the most likely outcome of a no vote.

Voters’ beliefs thus mirror the narratives of both camps, emphasizing the importance of partisan cues in the referendum campaign.
Click to expand...
 
F

Frankfurter

Member
chadskin said:
Staggering telephone poll results from a day before the referendum:

consequencesNO.png


A majority believed "No" would lead to new negotiations while a "Yes" would lead to a Grexit.

via: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs...eres-a-poll-taken-just-before-the-referendum/
Click to expand...


Isn't this just saying that those that wanted to vote No excepted to get new negotiations if no wins, while those that wanted to vote Yes expected Grexit (60% of them that is) if no wins? Atleast that's what I'm reading there and it makes sense.
 
J

Joni

Member
chadskin said:
A majority believed "No" would lead to new negotiations while a "Yes" would lead to a Grexit.
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No, a majority of the Yes voters believed a 'No' vote would lead to a Grexit. It is completely different from what you think. So yes, this seems like a mandate for Tsipiras to lead new negotiations as the No-voters don't want the Grexit.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Frankfurter said:
Isn't this just saying that those that wanted to vote No excepted to get new negotiations if no wins, while those that wanted to vote Yes expected Grexit (60% of them that is) if no wins? Atleast that's what I'm reading there and it makes sense.
Click to expand...

Yes, I just looked it up in the article. That's what is meant by that.
 
C

chadskin

Member
Frankfurter said:
Isn't this just saying that those that wanted to vote No excepted to get new negotiations if no wins, while those that wanted to vote Yes expected Grexit (60% of them that is) if no wins? Atleast that's what I'm reading there and it makes sense.
Click to expand...

Woah, right. Some n-dimensional graphic.
 
W

wrowa

Member
Tsipras doesn't want the Grexit. The Grexit might potentially be good for Greece in the long run, but it also poses extreme risks that he is unwilling to take the responsibilty for.

The new proposal might look bad now, but I think he's aware that the EU countries can't sign a better proposal right now without losing face in their respective countries. However, there are rumblings that certain parties are willing to take a debt cut into consideration, so maybe Tsipras hopes that if he makes a step towards the EU now, then the EU might take a step towards him in a couple weeks time.
 
Theonik

Theonik

Member
wrowa said:
Tsipras doesn't want the Grexit. The Grexit might potentially be good for Greece in the long run, but it also poses extreme risks that he is unwilling to take the responsibilty for.

The new proposal might look bad now, but I think he's aware that the EU countries can't sign a better proposal right now without losing face in their respective countries. However, there are rumblings that certain parties are willing to take a debt cut into consideration, so maybe Tsipras hopes that if he makes a step towards the EU now, then the EU might take a step towards him in a couple weeks time.
Click to expand...
If he really thinks that, it pretty much proves how much of a moron he is.
I mean they strung him up and run him through thorns for the past 5 months because 'Lol there was a deal we don't re-negotiate you signed it now, get fucked if you don't like it we'll just force your country to starve because we own you now'

On what grounds would he believe that in say another 5 months they don't just fuck him over again.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
operon said:
Irish independent saying Germany under pressure from us France and Italy for a debt cut
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They have been doing that for some time now. "Applying pressure" is probably little more than just stating your opinion. Anyway, if that deal doesn't include any sort of debt relief Tsipras might as well flee the country.
 
K

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
wrowa said:
Tsipras doesn't want the Grexit. The Grexit might potentially be good for Greece in the long run, but it also poses extreme risks that he is unwilling to take the responsibilty for.

The new proposal might look bad now, but I think he's aware that the EU countries can't sign a better proposal right now without losing face in their respective countries. However, there are rumblings that certain parties are willing to take a debt cut into consideration, so maybe Tsipras hopes that if he makes a step towards the EU now, then the EU might take a step towards him in a couple weeks time.
Click to expand...

Then he should have avoided all this stupid show with scandals in the past months and referendum and avoid the banks being closed and its own people being put in danger for nothing.
 
E

ElTorro

I wanted to dominate the living room. Then I took an ESRAM in the knee.
Heartfyre said:
I'm expecting that Big Boss will be attending Sunday's meeting and recommending that, in a cost-saving measure, the Greek military should privatise and become an army without a nation.
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Also, Sergio Canavero will reveal that he replaced Varoufakis' head with that of Tsipras.
 
M

My words exactly!

Member
Τhe greek proposal in detail (google translate warning)
https://translate.google.gr/transla...ugla.gr/politiki/article/egri8ike-to-mnimonio
The measures proposed are as follows:

- New VAT regime with rates of 6% for medicines, books and theaters, 13% for hotels, energy, 23% in focus and in most foods, but also maintain a 30% discount on the Aegean islands, with the exception of Mykonos, Kos , Rhodes and Santorini.

In particular, this regime naturally made the following changes in the market:

1) increases from 13% to 23% the rate of VAT for:

* All processed, packaged and canned foods (pasta, rice and beans sold in packs, biscuits, chocolates, crisps, chips, canned soft drinks, packaged juices, frozen foods, sweets, ice cream, jams, processed and packaged bread, sandwiches, pre-cooked food, prepared food in packaging, tomato paste, sauces, canned, etc.)

* Transport services (bus tickets, train, airplane, ship, taxi fares)

* The servirizomena items in stores catering

* The old residential repair services

* Secondary health services provided by private hospitals

* Tickets entertainment (cinemas, etc., other than theaters).

Prices of all these products and services will directly increase by 8.85%, as it will be impossible for retailers and service to 'absorb' the VAT increase keeping unchanged their prices.

2) increase the VAT rate for accommodation services in hotels by 6.5% to 13%, resulting in the prices of these services and products to increase by 6.1%.

The basic and fresh food, electricity, water, gas will remain at 13%.

For drugs, book publishing and theater tickets coefficient will decrease slightly from 6.5% to 6%.

With regard to pensions:

Phasing EKAS by the end of 2019 and replaced the minimum guaranteed income.
Remove early retirement this year and increased the penalty to 16% for those who come to retirement before 67 years
Suspension of zero deficit clause main and supplementary pensions.
Increase Health contributions to 5-6% (from 4%).
New Insurance since October.
For labor provided:

Freeze any change in collective agreements (applying the new framework in the fall).
Also, measures are envisaged such as:

- Increased solidarity levy on incomes over 30,000 euros and integration of the tax scale.

Measures for farmers:

- Stricter criteria for being a farmer

- Abolition of agricultural tax exemptions until the end of 2017 (rural oil tax-free subsidies)

Furthermore:

- Establishing a new regime regarding the tax credit for employees and retirees to build tax-free limit of 9,500 euros

- Imposition ENFIA this year and in 2016, on revenue of 2.65 billion. Euros annually and independently from the revaluation of objective values

- Extension of the concept of tax evasion

- Abolition of fines the Code of Books and Records

- Creating an autonomous tax administration

- Elimination of the debts settings to the state of those who do not pay current liabilities to tax authorities and funds

- Exclusion from the regulation of 100 doses of those with incomes ability to pay earlier than the end of regulation and application market interest in regulating

- Increase in the exemption limit from VAT from 10,000 euros to 25,000 euros

- An increase in the rate of luxury living tax from 10% to 13%

- Increase the tax rate for companies from 26% to 28%

- Advance payment of tax by 100% for enterprises gradually from 2016.

- Cut defense spending (200 mil. For 2016 and 400 million. 2017)

- Adoption of most OECD proposals for liberalization of closed professions and services.

The proposal will include effective reforms towards the immediate return of revenue to state coffers, but especially strengthen the growth trajectory of the economy which will help to attract investment and to fight unemployment.
Click to expand...


If no debt cut only cause of Germany and Baltic satellites, then i hope history (and not only) judges that decision.
 
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