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Greece votes OXI/No on more Austerity measures

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Deleted member 231381

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How so? I've spent the last couple of months reading up on the German economy (past, not present) for Uni, but haven't had time to really get into the Asian countries - that's for the next semester, but I'm intrigued. Care to explain? :)

Similar industrial background - most German and Japanese industry was rebuilt with American money to help the countries enter the 'Western' sphere of influence. Similar population development and demographic challenges - Germany is helped slightly more by immigration, but then much of that immigration is on account of the EU to begin with. Aside from that, they have similar birth rates and problems supporting an increasingly elderly population. Similar market specialization - high-end industry that is/was sustained by an undervalued currency (and you can see what happened to Japan when the yen's value began to normalize). Large focus on family firms rather than corporations along the Anglo-Saxon model.

Japan is now caught in a trap where a lot of their industrial products are too expensive compared to competitors with cheaper work-forces, like South Korea and increasingly China, but there's a lot of political resistance to moving into different economic sectors because of how many people depend on the system remaining the way it is, at least in the short-term. The result is economic stagnation as productivity gains don't happen fast enough before they spread to cheaper competitors. The United Kingdom did the same thing four decades ago.
 

jorma

is now taking requests
M°°nblade;171666181 said:
The situation in 1953 wasn't even remotely comparable.
Germany didn't receive a debt relief out of altruism or solidarity but because it was a win-win situation for the creditors as Germany was expected to be able to pay back the remaining debt much faster. Greece doesn't have the same economic growth prospectives Germany had back in 1953.

It became a win-win for both Germany and the creditors because in the terms Germany would only pay off on the remainder of their debts if they had positive growth. So the creditors had a vested interest in seeing German growth, and were so inclined to buy German produce.

it could be exactly the same today. Greece aren't denied debt relief because the austerity measures makes financial sense. Or that it makes financial sense for Greece to sell off their public assets from the bargain bin. The current austerity has shrunk the economy in greece by 25%. More of the same isn't going to be a magical fairy tale that suddenly works.
 

Nikodemos

Member
Large focus on family firms rather than corporations along the Anglo-Saxon model.
To be fair, that's not a uniquely German feature. Many Continental enterprises continue to this day to be family run (or at the very least influenced) ventures.

Or that it makes financial sense for Greece to sell off their public assets from the bargain bin.
It is extremely important to note that technical monopolies, such as transmission networks for electricity, gas etc. form a large and reliably constant part of a government's revenue sheet. Auctioning them off for the equivalent of bags of pistachios causes considerable income loss, quite likely leading to budget deficits in the future.
 

KDR_11k

Member
The core rhetoric seen in discussion about this in Germany is that we must protect the German savers. They bring it up whether it's about inflation, about ECB measures or about Greece. Doesn't matter if the Greeks go hungry and have to eat their own pets to survive, as long as our savings are okay it's fine.

M°°nblade;171666652 said:
But it is the proper solution.
Growth cannot be achieved by piling debts and lack of structural reforms. What do you all the other EU countries are doing?

Unfounded instinctual statements like this are the reason this whole crisis is still going on.
 
Yes, I know it's nominal. I left it nominal because percentage GDP comparisons don't always make sense when we're cross-comparing between countries - a country that goes through a recession and focuses on a trade boom to recover will skew the data, for example. If we do want to focus on percentage of GDP;

german-current-account-to-gdp-ratio.png


or further back from the 1990s;

qe-289-2-uk.jpg


In both cases you can see the boom that accompanies the Euro.


Well, you chose exactly time period as comparison, where Germanys trade balance was bad (relatively speaking). Probably atleast partly due to reunification, which certainly should be considered as a huge "shock". On top of that also competitiveness issues, which basically started in the mid 80s.




I mean obviously you don't want your currency to be *too* weak or foreign imports are too expensive. However, in this case I suspect Germany doesn't want the Euro to be weaker because that means inflation, which is opposed for largely political reasons rather than economic ones.

Yeah don't get me wrong, but you just have to decide what you want to blame Germany on. They certainly don't want a weak Euro, that's a simple fact and has been shown again and again. If it'd be for Germany, the Euro would be at, say, $1.50 and its trade balance would be lower.
 

2MF

Member
Krugman:

http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2015/07/12/disaster-in-europe/?smid=tw-NytimesKrugman&seid=auto

It appears that Syriza didn’t even do any contingency planning for a parallel currency (I hope to find out that this is wrong). This left him in a hopeless bargaining position.

There are only terrible alternatives at this point, thanks to the fecklessness of the Greek government and, far more important, the utterly irresponsible campaign of financial intimidation waged by Germany and its allies. And I guess I have to say it: unless Merkel miraculously finds a way to offer a much less destructive plan than anything we’re hearing, Grexit, terrifying as it is, would be better.
 

Nikodemos

Member
The core rhetoric seen in discussion about this in Germany is that we must protect the German savers. They bring it up whether it's about inflation, about ECB measures or about Greece. Doesn't matter if the Greeks go hungry and have to eat their own pets to survive, as long as our savings are okay it's fine.
It's less about German savers, and rather more about German pensioners, current and future (and there are a lot of future German pensioners). Also about Germany's rich, who hold a not-negligible part of their income in various financial instruments where the German state is a part.
 

chadskin

Member
Following is a partial draft Eurogroup statement, seen by Reuters. It was discussed by the ministers late on Saturday, before they resumed talks on Sunday.

Euro zone sources said it was likely to be amended but formed a basis for further discussion on Sunday. Sources also said ministers had pressed Greece to take other measures, including passing early legislation increasing value-added tax and making the national statistics agency independent:

"The Eurogroup takes note of the request by the Greek authorities for a three-year ESM stability support and the accompanying list of policy commitments, including a comprehensive list of prior action. The Eurogroup reiterates the need for continued full involvement of the IMF.

The Eurogroup welcomes the assessment by the institutions that the list of policy commitments of the Greek authorities represents a basis to start the negotiations on a new program. The Eurogroup also agrees with the institutions that the package needs to be significantly strengthened and broadened in order to provide for appropriate conditionality for a possible three-year ESM program. The Eurogroup thus welcomes the additional following commitments of the Greek authorities on the basis of a clear timetable:

- fully comply with the medium-term primary surplus target of 3.5 percent of GDP by 2018, according to a yearly schedule to be agreed with the institutions;

- carry out ambitious pension reforms and specific policies to fully compensate for the fiscal impact of the Constitutional Court ruling on the 2012 pension reform and to implement the zero deficit clause;

- adopt more ambitious product market reforms with a clear timetable for implementation of all OECD toolkit I recommendations, including Sunday trade, sales periods, over-the-counter pharmaceutical products, pharmacy ownership, milk, bakeries. On the follow-up of the OECD toolkit II, manufacturing needs to be included in the prior action;

- on energy markets, the privatization of the electricity transmission network operator (ADMIE) must proceed, unless replacement measures can be found that have equivalent effect, as agreed by the institutions;

- on labor markets, undertake rigorous reviews of collective bargaining, industrial action and collective dismissals in line with the timetable and the approach suggested by the institutions. Any changes should be based on international and European best practices, and should not involve a return to past policy settings which are not compatible with the goals of promoting sustainable and inclusive growth;

- fully implement the relevant provisions of the Treaty on Stability, Coordination and Governance in the Economic and Monetary Union, in particular to make the Fiscal Council fully operational;

- adopt the necessary steps to strengthen the financial sector, including decisive action on non-performing loans, transposition of BRRD and measures to strengthen governance of the HFSF and the banks;

- develop a significantly scaled up privatization program with improved governance. A working group with the institutions shall provide proposals for better implementation mechanisms;

- amend or compensate for legislation adopted during 2015 which have not been agreed with the institutions and run counter to the program commitments;

- implement the key remaining elements from the December 2014 state of play of the fifth review of the second economic adjustment program."
http://mobile.reuters.com/article/idUSKCN0PM0EP20150712?irpc=932
 
Well, you chose exactly time period as comparison, where Germanys trade balance was bad (relatively speaking). Probably atleast partly due to reunification, which certainly should be considered as a huge "shock". On top of that also competitiveness issues, which basically started in the mid 80s.






Yeah don't get me wrong, but you just have to decide what you want to blame Germany on. They certainly don't want a weak Euro, that's a simple fact and has been shown again and again. If it'd be for Germany, the Euro would be at, say, $1.50 and its trade balance would be lower.

Germany's trade surplus within the EU isn't even very high. The surplus is a result of trading with China and the USA, it's at this point a side-show because the surplus helps other European countries because all kinds of suppliers of the German export goods are from other EU countries.

https://www.bmwi.de/English/Redaktion/Pdf/facts-about-german-foreign-trade-in-2013,property=pdf
 

jorma

is now taking requests
Germany's trade surplus within the EU isn't even very high. The surplus is a result of trading with China and the USA, it's at this point a side-show because the surplus helps other European countries because all kinds of suppliers of the German export goods are from other EU countries.

But uh.. that's where a weak euro helps the most.
 
Germany's trade surplus within the EU isn't even very high. The surplus is a result of trading with China and the USA, it's at this point a side-show because the surplus helps other European countries because all kinds of suppliers of the German export goods are from other EU countries.

Sure. And their products are getting more competitive in China, USA thanks to increased competitiveness from a shared currency which is undervalued for Germany.

How can you not understand this. It's not rocket science.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Well, you chose exactly time period as comparison, where Germanys trade balance was bad (relatively speaking). Probably atleast partly due to reunification, which certainly should be considered as a huge "shock". On top of that also competitiveness issues, which basically started in the mid 80s.

Trade balance was bad for a reason: the economy had matured was at the technological frontier, meaning gains happened faster in other economies. Exactly the same thing happened to the United Kingdom, although a little bit earlier. That would have been the new status quo if it hadn't been for the ERM. The time period comparison is entirely apt.

Yeah don't get me wrong, but you just have to decide what you want to blame Germany on. They certainly don't want a weak Euro, that's a simple fact and has been shown again and again. If it'd be for Germany, the Euro would be at, say, $1.50 and its trade balance would be lower.

I'm blaming them for two things. Firstly, not making it absolutely clear to their population that the Euro was a *huge* boon for the German economy. There are four nations above the European productivity average - Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany (France is sometimes above, but mostly track around the average). That means that the Euro is being kept vastly undervalued compared to the German economy. I'd guesstimate that the Deutschmark could probably get you around 1.80 Euros. This sustains German industry, and is a huge reason that Germany should want to sustain the European Union, and this should have been explained to people. Instead, what happened is that national politicians stole Europe's successes to sell as their own, but painted their failings as Europe's, because it was politically expedient to do so.

Secondly, I'm blaming them for not accepting what a currency union actually means. Every other currency union in the world (well, almost every other one) works because there is a fiscal union as well. London benefits hugely from the fact Hull doesn't have the same productivity. California benefits hugely from the fact Alabama is a shit-hole. However, London is a net-tax contributor. California is a net-tax contributor. In contrast, Germany has been absolutely content to take all of the European Union's and Eurozone's benefits, with almost none of the responsibilities that should actually entail. I'm not saying Germany is wrong for allowing the Euro to stay at its current value. That's just how currency unions work, I'm not suggesting that the UK devalues the pound so that people in Hull can find employment. I *am* suggesting that Germany should cough up.

This doesn't just apply to Germany as well. It also applies to, e.g., the Netherlands a fair amount of the time. However, Germany is the worst offender.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Wouldn't staying with the DM and being able to weaken it be the better deal then?

Yes and no. If you stayed in the DM and keep it very weak by constantly creating new DMs, you would still have a strong export led industry, but you'd also have rampant inflation. The UK actually tried doing exactly this in the '70s. Didn't end particularly well (and was also responsible for Thatcher coming into power, so fuck that).
 

Tugatrix

Member
Trade balance in Portugal don't reflect a raise in exports it just reflects the sharp drop in imports due to lower of consumptions in families
 

jorma

is now taking requests
Wouldn't staying with the DM and being able to weaken it be the better deal then?

Germans don't like inflation. In the euro they can have low inflation and a currency that is weaker than the d-mark would have been.

So i'm guessing that the correct answer to your question is "no".
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
And to make a very strong currency weaker is not the easiest thing to do, even if you accept inflation. Again, just look at Japan and Switzerland. Because despite printing more money the market perception is not easy to change.
 
You do realise that Euro helps also the export outside EU, don't you?

It didn't stop Germany's export ambitons when the Euro was at its all-high record.

It's a cute little narration but Germany imports and would work if Germany didn't need to import anything outside of the EU. Right now what Germany helps the most is the crude oil price - not the weak Euro.
 
on labor markets, undertake rigorous reviews of collective bargaining, industrial action and collective dismissals in line with the timetable and the approach suggested by the institutions. Any changes should be based on international and European best practices, and should not involve a return to past policy settings which are not compatible with the goals of promoting sustainable and inclusive growth;
So union busting by the EU?

With all of these proposals how is grexit not the best option now. The Euro group just wants blood.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
It didn't stop Germany's export ambitons when the Euro was at its all-high record.

It's a cute little narration but Germany imports and would work if Germany didn't need to import anything outside of the EU. Right now what Germany helps the most is the crude oil price - not the weak Euro.

Even at all time high, Euro was still an average of the Euro countries performance.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
It didn't stop Germany's export ambitons when the Euro was at its all-high record.

Yes, because the Euro was still low relative to Germany. You don't understand how currencies work. They're not inherently "weak" or "strong", they're weak or strong relative to the countries that use them. Right now, the Euro is too strong for Greece AND too weak for Germany, at the same time. The Euro will *always* be too weak for Germany, just because of how the Eurozone is designed - it's the average of all the Eurozone countries.

It's a cute little narration but Germany imports and would work if Germany didn't need to import anything outside of the EU. Right now what Germany helps the most is the crude oil price - not the weak Euro.

This is just wrong and the fact so many Germans are denying it in this thread is depressing.
 

snap0212

Member
Yes, because the Euro was still low relative to Germany. You don't understand how currencies work. They're not inherently "weak" or "strong", they're weak or strong relative to the countries that use them. Right now, the Euro is too strong for Greece AND too weak for Germany, at the same time. The Euro will *always* be too weak for Germany, just because of how the Eurozone is designed - it's the average of all the Eurozone countries.
Q: How was joining the Euro a good idea for Greece? Wasn't it a very devastating idea right from the beginning?
 

Nikodemos

Member
Q: How was joining the Euro a good idea for Greece? Wasn't it a very devastating idea right from the beginning?
In retrospect it was a fuck-awful idea, just like for many other Southern countries, but the general thought at the time was that having the same currency would make richer Northerners more willing to come and spend it on tourism (Greek exchange offices were notorious for ripping off tourists in the '90s, with exchange rates changing several times throughout a day).
 

Reuenthal

Banned
I think this is the real problem now. All of the games that have been played up to now have ruined the credibility for implementing whatever is agreed...

The problem is more that what is discussed as what is going to be agreed, if implemented, it will be utterly disastrous, and it is so utterly disastrous that it is hard to imagine it being implemented.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Q: How was joining the Euro a good idea for Greece? Wasn't it a very devastating idea right from the beginning?

In hindsight, yes.

I think when people signed up to the Euro, they expected it to develop. Everyone thought Eurobonds would be a thing certainly within the next decade. When the UK ended up not joining the Euro, it didn't have so much to do with anything economic, but because the UK thought that the European Union would supercede national institutions too quickly! If anything, the exact opposite has happened. Certainly, from the perspective of someone in Greece in the early 2000s, when growth prospects were great all across Europe and almost all the major European countries were staunched with very pro-European leaders (even the UK had Tony Blair, who would have joined the Euro had his Chancellor not stopped him), it would have been quite easy to be optimistic that the Euro would have become a properly developed monetary union before troubles hit.

There were also selfish reasons - because people expected the Euro would never fall apart, debts taken out in Euros had very low interest rates, so the Greek government, by joining, was able to take out much cheaper debt. This is, entirely, the problem of the Greek government. I make no excuses for that. It should never have happened It's worth noting, however, that even that could have been stopped if the Eurozone had actually continued to progress. If all countries shared common Eurobonds, they have a massive incentive to make sure that debts are a realistic in all countries. As it was, even Germany didn't keep to the terms of the European Fiscal Compact - only one country in the Eurozone ever has (Estonia).

I think the problem with the Eurozone is that it is fundamentally the same thing now it was when people signed up. Nobody expected that.
 
Even at all time high, Euro was still an average of the Euro countries performance.

And a stronger national currency would have helped Germany more when the oil and steel prices were insanly high.

A competive economy stays competive and doesn't rise and fall based on exchange rates. See the examples Swiss and Japan.
 

Nikodemos

Member
A competive economy stays competive and doesn't rise and fall based on exchange rates. See the examples Swiss and Japan.
Japan is slowly but continuously bleeding competitiveness (and has been for nearly two decades now) and Switzerland shuttered much of its former industry and converted to finance and services.

Two examples of where Germany might've ended up without the Euro. Though given the percentage of heavy industry in the German economic mix, it's quite likely closer to the former.
 

wsippel

Banned
Yes, I know it's nominal. I left it nominal because percentage GDP comparisons don't always make sense when we're cross-comparing between countries - a country that goes through a recession and focuses on a trade boom to recover will skew the data, for example. If we do want to focus on percentage of GDP;

german-current-account-to-gdp-ratio.png


or further back from the 1990s;

qe-289-2-uk.jpg


In both cases you can see the boom that accompanies the Euro.

I mean obviously you don't want your currency to be *too* weak or foreign imports are too expensive. However, in this case I suspect Germany doesn't want the Euro to be weaker because that means inflation, which is opposed for largely political reasons rather than economic ones.
The problem with those graphs and your interpretation is that you're completely ignoring the reunification and the massive impact it had on the German economy.
 

jorma

is now taking requests
*sigh*

people are still not saying that the german economy is only competetive because of the euro. I'm not so sure why it's so difficult to accept that the german economy that also would have been very successful with the d-mark benefitted hugely when they could combine their strong economy with a weaker euro.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
The problem with those graphs and your interpretation is that you're completely ignoring the reunification and the massive impact it had on the German economy. The GDR was even more broke than Greece and even harder to reform.

The GDR saw massive productivity gains after reunification (for obvious reasons - it's easier to chase the leader than to push out the technological frontier). If Germany hadn't been in the ERM when reunification had happened, the DM's value would be even higher than it is now.
 

Ether_Snake

安安安安安安安安安安安安安安安
It's not a quote, it's the general guiding principle for a lot of German politicians (and more than a few regular Germans). Making a cheap morality play out of economic principles.

It's the same with their inflation fetish/hatred. They still push to lower inflation even when all the numbers show deflation, because there might be some inflation in the future, at some point, eventually, probably.

I'm starting to suspect that those views date back to early 20th century conspiracies like the protocols that were all about debt and inflation used to "enslave" the world. It's like this discourse has been internally rationalized and its roots forgotten. I seeno other explanation for this obsession.
 

KingSnake

The Birthday Skeleton
And a stronger national currency would have helped Germany more when the oil and steel prices were insanly high.

A competive economy stays competive and doesn't rise and fall based on exchange rates. See the examples Swiss and Japan.

Nobody says that German economy wouldn't have been competitive without Euro.

Read again.

What we are saying is that Germany benefited the most from Euro.

Read about the Swiss and Japanese companies struggle against the strong currency.

When the oil and steel prices were insanely high the trade balance was still positive for Germany. So the overall impact of a stronger currency would have been still negative. If you keep providing examples that contradict mathematics and economics I won't answer anymore because I'm writing from my phone and the effort is not worthy it, really.
 

Irminsul

Member
I'm starting to suspect that those views date back to early 20th century conspiracies like the protocols that were all about debt and inflation used to "enslave" the world. It's like this discourse has been internally rationalized and its roots forgotten. I seeno other explanation for this obsession.
A fine example of the thinly but nonetheless veiled Godwin. Great. It's always back to this, isn't it?
 
Secondly, I'm blaming them for not accepting what a currency union actually means. Every other currency union in the world (well, almost every other one) works because there is a fiscal union as well. London benefits hugely from the fact Hull doesn't have the same productivity. California benefits hugely from the fact Alabama is a shit-hole. However, London is a net-tax contributor. California is a net-tax contributor. In contrast, Germany has been absolutely content to take all of the European Union's and Eurozone's benefits, with almost none of the responsibilities that should actually entail. I'm not saying Germany is wrong for allowing the Euro to stay at its current value. That's just how currency unions work, I'm not suggesting that the UK devalues the pound so that people in Hull can find employment. I *am* suggesting that Germany should cough up.
Isn't [part of] the problem here that fiscal union would also presumably entail supranational fiscal policy setting and/or some form of representative political union, the likes of which exist in these other monetary union examples, towards which none among this collection of countries would actually be willing to cede sovereignty?

EDIT: Also, as a general note about the thread, I find it occasionally interesting, but if it's just going to be stupid nationalistic bickering that a lot of the last pages I've read through seem to comprise, then I'm going to assume it's run its course and close it and you can resume if/and when some substantive new news emerges.
 
Japan is slowly but continuously bleeding competitiveness (and has been for nearly two decades now) and Switzerland shuttered much of its former industry and converted to finance and services.

Two examples of where Germany might've ended up without the Euro. Though given the percentage of heavy industry in the German economic mix, it's quite likely closer to the former.

Japan suffers a bunch of structural problems and everything is way more complicated than a weak or strong currency.
 
D

Deleted member 231381

Unconfirmed Member
Isn't [part of] the problem here that fiscal union would also presumably entail supranational fiscal policy setting and/or some form of representative political union, the likes of which exist in these other monetary union examples, towards which none among this collection of countries would actually be willing to cede sovereignty?

Yes, it is. Again, I think there's a lot of hindsight benefit here. Go back to the early 2000s, when the economy across Europe had been in a half-decade boom that showed no time of stopping, when you had national politicians using rhetoric like "the end of boom and bust", and almost all European countries had strongly pro-European leaders, it didn't seem so outlandish Europe might grow together. But now, yeah. This is the European project dying.
 

wsippel

Banned
The GDR saw massive productivity gains after reunification (for obvious reasons - it's easier to chase the leader than to push out the technological frontier). If Germany hadn't been in the ERM when reunification had happened, the DM's value would be even higher than it is now.
For the first few years, the former GDR saw massive layoffs, closed factories, privatizations and defaults everywhere and massive structural reforms. It took years and trillions of Euros to fix this mess. Interestingly, the narrative of many people in the East was (and sometimes still is) very similar to what you see a lot from Greece these days...
 

Tugatrix

Member
Not really.

http://www.pordata.pt/Portugal/Balança+comercial+(R)-500
Legend is (by rows):
Exports/Imports/Balance
Total/Goods/Services

Exports also increased.
Last 2 years with positive balance first ones since the end of dictatorship.

You just made my point the imports dropped, being more precise the trend of raising was curbed which isn't good given we import most of our goods and prices of those goods grow every year(inflation)
 

pulsemyne

Member
That was fast, weird.
Someone must have caved in then. If it's true that Greece was not even prepare with a second currency then they have to give in. What a shower of shit their government is. No wonder Greece is in such a mess. You cannot bargain with people when you have no bargaining power.
 
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