CrimsonFist
Member
I don't really think that trying to figure out who killed him is going to get you anywhere.
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Heist [Mafia] |OT| Snakes on a Train
- Thread starter YesNOnoNOYes
- Start date
CornBurrito
Member
Well we know whoever killed him is scum. Figuring out who killed Czar would effectively be the same as trying to find scum.
Especially with no PR I agree with you on this.
CrimsonFist
Member
Well yeah, what I mean to say is that it really could have been anyone in this game.
CornBurrito
Member
Disagreed personally. If scum team was entirely made up of people who never played with Czar, I really don't think Czar would have been killed.
CornBurrito
Member
My vote is remaining on Flux, for the remainder of this day. Unless someone convinces me otherwise.
I still request people to have an active vote. This day has been ungodly slow. Don't even care if you vote for me, just have a vote out there. Otherwise everyone's going to be voting at the last second, with zero vote changes, and zero ways to catch scum since everything will just be a huge bandwagon.
I still request people to have an active vote. This day has been ungodly slow. Don't even care if you vote for me, just have a vote out there. Otherwise everyone's going to be voting at the last second, with zero vote changes, and zero ways to catch scum since everything will just be a huge bandwagon.
What? What about my activity has eased up your suspicions. And I'm not sure I see how your vote wasn't doing much good when it put me ahead of the others, but whatever.
Heh, and we know your stellar track record when it comes to putting down "final" votes. Maybe if I double dare ya, you actually won't change this time.
CornBurrito
Member
No seriously I can't stress this enough. Everyone's been so silent. Almost nobody has an active vote. How are you going to catch scum in the coming days when you have no behavior to analyze, and everyone voted in the last stretch of time (aka everyone bandwagoned)?
Now I can't say I've been as active as in the past. Most anything I want to even discuss or try is getting shut down.
Now I can't say I've been as active as in the past. Most anything I want to even discuss or try is getting shut down.
CornBurrito
Member
Why, if you are so convinced I am scum, are you not voting for me? Waiting to do it in the middle of the votes so when I flip town it doesn't trace back to you as being the one to initially push me off the cliff?
You can change your vote, as many times as you want. Why isn't your vote on me?
I'm not convinced you're scum, why are you so convinced I'm convinced you're scum? This is the second time I've had to say this. You're turning into a reverse redhood.
CrimsonFist
Member
You've been generally active, which admittedly you were as scum, but generally active and causing discussions. I still think you're probably scum, but I've been happier with your more recent contributions. And I'd rather throw my vote onto less active people to try to motivate them to post a bit more.
CornBurrito: enough arguing about tactics and stuff, give your top three scum with justifications.
@CornBurrito: And, just like I said in the very first D2 post, my vote isn't shifting from CrimsonFist no matter what. It would have to be something REAL special for me to change, but I'm not going to do it to break a tie, to follow a last minute bandwagon, or any of that great stuff you did at the end of D1.
CornBurrito
Member
Then I've misunderstood your posts and conclusions entirely.
CornBurrito
Member
1. FluxWave: Still fairly convinced that he's trying to manufacture my lynch, but doesn't want any bad credit for it. Might be wrong about that. Also I think he'd definitely be someone to order Czar's murder.
2. squidyj: Dude was super aggressive yesterday. Quiet today. Was that because he was wrong on Mazre, or will he only intervene if town gets on the "wrong" path? Actually, perhaps we should look back to yesterday. Were we shifting discussion/votes to someone when squid came in with his "LOOK AT MAZRE AND VOTE FOR MAZRE" crusade?
3. Ouro. Dude is laying low. Is that always what he does? Or is he just sitting back and letting town self destruct?
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
Ty4on (2)
Droplet .666 .673
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
redhood56 (1)
CrimsonFist .793
FluxWaveZ (1)
CrimsonFist .670 .793
CornBurrito .694
No active vote for Day 2:
Karu
Kawl_USC
Ourobolus
Royal_Flush
Ty4on
Day 2 ends:
7 votes for majority
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
Ty4on (2)
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
redhood56 (1)
CrimsonFist .793
FluxWaveZ (1)
CornBurrito .694
No active vote for Day 2:
Karu
Kawl_USC
Ourobolus
Royal_Flush
Ty4on
Day 2 ends:
7 votes for majority
CornBurrito
Member
No active vote for Day 2:
Karu
Kawl_USC
Ourobolus
Royal_Flush
Ty4on
This should be a big red flag in the future btw.
Karu
Kawl_USC
Ourobolus
Royal_Flush
Ty4on
This should be a big red flag in the future btw.
Kawl, are you there? I can't read you and have barely interacted with you. I generally agree with your statements on the end of D1. It was weird, but I can't find any plausible motives.
CornBurrito
Member
No I actually read you as town.
Sorry drove back home for most of today. Have been interacting with family for a while. Sitting down to review and write up a post.
I'll wait. Currently reading Splinter from the start, but I'm not sure if anything will come out of that.
Shit, I totally forgot about the shortened schedule because of the holiday.
Vote: *Splinter
Corn and Flux are not far behind though. I'm convinced one of these three is scum.
I'm already ashamed.
I'm going to bed and will have to reply tomorrow.
CornBurrito
Member
So unrelated, but my cousin went to see Star Wars without me. Knew I wanted to see it too. Fucking pissed 
CrimsonFist
Member
Vote: CornBurrito's Cousin
I guess me grasping at these straws shows how my reading went, but I'm still not quite sure why he had to explain this instead of moving on. As he said himself nobody made a big deal out of it.
I made some thoughts about Splinter's big post attacking me. One I made right now if that it came after his vote. What really stood out though is how overinflated it is and lacking in real content. When I made corrections like him misunderstanding me the replies (single reply IIRC) were muted and he kept a fairly low profile as the lynch went on. Seems a little weird when you're reading someone.
I'm not sure if he'd be in the top for lynch candidates. Corn made himself a bit too obvious with his flip, but there's something I can't put my finger on. Like his posts are over processed.
I'm not sure if he'd be in the top for lynch candidates. Corn made himself a bit too obvious with his flip, but there's something I can't put my finger on. Like his posts are over processed.
CornBurrito
Member
Which is funny because I'm putting significantly less effort into my posts than I did in Dangan thanks to Underrail.
I guess that's why. Danganronpa was filled with crazy theories from you
What's that brain? Ooh, right, sleep. One thought I had just now is about Splinter today. He admitted to tunneling too hard on me yesterday (716) adds hypothetical theories where I flip town, but hasn't made any new reads of me or even interacted with me.
Okay went through and read everything from today and grabbed any posts that stood out in some way. This might be a bit all over the place as I opened the post in new tab if something tickled me about it. I'll try to respond to anything after this but will be in and out as I'm with family.
Starting with Squidyj:
Opens with a pretty strong declaration that the flippers are likely "all town" if Ty flips normal. While I think that the flippers get some points towards a more likely town read, I think Squid gives a bit too much weight to the flipping.
So the posts like this (and others) are the reason why I think its not impossible scum was in the flipping camp. Yes it is a very visible move, but I don't think it is out of the question for one of the scum players to decide to make a high visibility move while others try to play a more passive game and coast by. I still think lynching Ty provides more information but it isn't a silver bullet in clearing those who flipped.
While Squid's brain seems to melt from this point and I disagree with his ty =town flip means flippers are town, I do agree that lynching ty4on provides more information than lynching some of the flippers if we are seeking more information from our lynch (as I said earlier, if you have a strong read pursue it over going for ty just for the information it would provide).
Scum could make the move in hopes of people making the exact argument you are making.
I think squidy probably has a good guess here that at least one of the scum is among these 4 players (the 3 here and Ouro which he added in on the next post).
These were squidyj's main posts that stood out to me. Looking them over, I'd say that while I disagree with most of the arguments he is making concerning how a town flip for Ty4on reflects on other players, I'm town reading him for now given that I don't think scum would have taken such a staunch position on how Ty4on's town flip would reflect. Although I suppose it could be next level strats.
Starting with Squidyj:
Opens with a pretty strong declaration that the flippers are likely "all town" if Ty flips normal. While I think that the flippers get some points towards a more likely town read, I think Squid gives a bit too much weight to the flipping.
So the posts like this (and others) are the reason why I think its not impossible scum was in the flipping camp. Yes it is a very visible move, but I don't think it is out of the question for one of the scum players to decide to make a high visibility move while others try to play a more passive game and coast by. I still think lynching Ty provides more information but it isn't a silver bullet in clearing those who flipped.
While Squid's brain seems to melt from this point and I disagree with his ty =town flip means flippers are town, I do agree that lynching ty4on provides more information than lynching some of the flippers if we are seeking more information from our lynch (as I said earlier, if you have a strong read pursue it over going for ty just for the information it would provide).
Scum could make the move in hopes of people making the exact argument you are making.
I think squidy probably has a good guess here that at least one of the scum is among these 4 players (the 3 here and Ouro which he added in on the next post).
These were squidyj's main posts that stood out to me. Looking them over, I'd say that while I disagree with most of the arguments he is making concerning how a town flip for Ty4on reflects on other players, I'm town reading him for now given that I don't think scum would have taken such a staunch position on how Ty4on's town flip would reflect. Although I suppose it could be next level strats.
I do actually have a math degree. -.-
I agree. But if you've seen CornBro in action before you kinda see that this is sort of his modus operandi. On the other hand, in Election he was blatantly obvious about his flip-flopping, even going so far as to call it out himself, which he hasn't done this game. Maybe he learned something, I dunno, but that's how he's acted before.
8 of the players in this game have played with Tim before, so that's probably a fair assumption, if not a fantastically safe one.
No, I don't normally, except for D1 - I do like to sit back on D1 and see what everyone else does before I jump in - there's something to be said about viewing players without your own interference. I've tried to step it up a bit this day phase since I was busy D1. I normally post quite a bit (hell, just look at NX and GAFia 1), although I don't have much history past D1 (except for AC where I was shit scum and GAFia where I was the worst roleblocker ever) because people think I'm a lot smarter than I actually am.
I'm happy someone else is realizing how odd Splinter is playing. There's something that's been really off with his posts, but I couldn't put it into words other than the strange posts I've already observed.
Next up here are the posts by FluxWave that stood out in my review:
Honestly, I'm not sure what the benefit of opening up with saying here's my vote and I'm sticking to it regardless of any developments during the day. I also don't follow the logic of lynching Crimson over Ty4on if you think that it was a move to lynch a townie who had been in a vote tie with scum. Unless I misunderstand what you are saying and you believe that Crimson is scum but Ty is not.
Who do you mean by one of those two? Do you mean one of the vote flippers? I don't get how that provides us with as much information as lynching Ty4on. I think if Ty is town, it is possible one scum player decided to make a risky, high visibility play to draw attention. If Ty is scum it is almost definite that one of the flippers is scum as well since they would have had intent behind trying to save him. Regardless, I don't think there is more than one in the vote flippers who are scum. So if we were to choose wrong on the flippers we could get a town flip and no real information.
I agree with Flux here that its certainly not the only possibility, but the logic is pretty good until you start getting into advanced strats (tm) territory. I think its a bit extreme to say it doesn't make them any less suspicious. I'm not going to give any of the flippers definite town status if Ty flips town, but it would provide a bit of a town lean in my opinion. I get that this is kind of the opposite of my problems with Squidy's post/arguments above, but I feel like they are both arguing absolutes on this issue.
Others have said that most of my posts/thoughts seem to be weak/non committal and I don't really know what to say to that. I think its a combination of my posting style as well as not over stating how confident I feel about any theory I put forth.
Another weird post being overly aggressive pushing the idea that giving the flippers ANY cred is some conspiracy... I think Squidy overstated the break it should given them, but over all the thread was more level headed in what a Ty town flip would mean.
Then this post. Flux later clarified that the list was in no particular order, and that the top town list was more of a top null list which I found weird. I asked why I was on the list and he only responded that I wasn't the top of the list as the order was irrelevant, but didn't provide any reasoning for why I was included at all.
I scum read Flux day 1, and the posts haven't exactly removed that feeling. I'm leaning scum for Flux right now.
Honestly, I'm not sure what the benefit of opening up with saying here's my vote and I'm sticking to it regardless of any developments during the day. I also don't follow the logic of lynching Crimson over Ty4on if you think that it was a move to lynch a townie who had been in a vote tie with scum. Unless I misunderstand what you are saying and you believe that Crimson is scum but Ty is not.
Who do you mean by one of those two? Do you mean one of the vote flippers? I don't get how that provides us with as much information as lynching Ty4on. I think if Ty is town, it is possible one scum player decided to make a risky, high visibility play to draw attention. If Ty is scum it is almost definite that one of the flippers is scum as well since they would have had intent behind trying to save him. Regardless, I don't think there is more than one in the vote flippers who are scum. So if we were to choose wrong on the flippers we could get a town flip and no real information.
I agree with Flux here that its certainly not the only possibility, but the logic is pretty good until you start getting into advanced strats (tm) territory. I think its a bit extreme to say it doesn't make them any less suspicious. I'm not going to give any of the flippers definite town status if Ty flips town, but it would provide a bit of a town lean in my opinion. I get that this is kind of the opposite of my problems with Squidy's post/arguments above, but I feel like they are both arguing absolutes on this issue.
Others have said that most of my posts/thoughts seem to be weak/non committal and I don't really know what to say to that. I think its a combination of my posting style as well as not over stating how confident I feel about any theory I put forth.
Another weird post being overly aggressive pushing the idea that giving the flippers ANY cred is some conspiracy... I think Squidy overstated the break it should given them, but over all the thread was more level headed in what a Ty town flip would mean.
Then this post. Flux later clarified that the list was in no particular order, and that the top town list was more of a top null list which I found weird. I asked why I was on the list and he only responded that I wasn't the top of the list as the order was irrelevant, but didn't provide any reasoning for why I was included at all.
I scum read Flux day 1, and the posts haven't exactly removed that feeling. I'm leaning scum for Flux right now.
Royal_Flush
Member
Ty4on today seems actually quite helpful and townie to me. Panicking Ty4on yesterday did not. I'm actually not sure about his alignment... CB seems to be the one driving discussion forward, which is a good thing. I might fall for that legendary talent of his but I currently don't have Crimson as Scum either. Something is off about Ouro, but I think we have to resolve yesterday's events first. Ty4on will give the most information right now.
Vote: Ty4on
Vote: Ty4on
You posted my list at the end of your post, so how is this even a question? I think Crimson is scum far, far more than I think Ty4on is. So yes, you misunderstand. I think there's a good chance Ty4on is town, and we end up wasting another day lynching him. And when we do, like I said before, the whole thing will turn into a mess because of the various kind of attention he's gotten. I'd rather lynch Crimson and go from there, than lynch Ty4on and do the same.
And your post up top is a pretty much the reason I don't care to focus on you when it comes to possible scum. You'll openly play Devil's advocate and defend redhood for trying to help town, but then you'll turn around and try to perceive an agenda against town in my posts. Doesn't give me any real impression either way, so I'd rather focus on the people who were in that previous list I posted.
First off: Europe + Saw Star Wars yesterday (fuck yeah! =)), so that's the reason for my recent abstinence and my missing vote.
in regards to my vote...
I think squidyj's behaviour... well not outright strange... but suspicious to say the least. But he is right (if I remember correctly saying this) we should kill Ty4on. Now... he might not be scum, but at this point I'm willing to take the risk. Even if squidyj did this on purpose to outright claim the first two Day-kills, they won't get away on Day 3 and I have the feeling with such a tight group we have here - one scum dies, the rest will fall too.
VOTE: Ty4on
In addition he posted nothing of value in the last hours/posts (he went to bed, admittedly). I'm eagerly awaiting his defense/offense.
I don't like this. We shouldn't lynch another quiet member, who got little traction on Day Two anyway. Note that I also mentioned his inactivity in an earlier post "today", but eh... we should keep him on the extented "scum suspect"-list for now.
in regards to my vote...
I think squidyj's behaviour... well not outright strange... but suspicious to say the least. But he is right (if I remember correctly saying this) we should kill Ty4on. Now... he might not be scum, but at this point I'm willing to take the risk. Even if squidyj did this on purpose to outright claim the first two Day-kills, they won't get away on Day 3 and I have the feeling with such a tight group we have here - one scum dies, the rest will fall too.
VOTE: Ty4on
In addition he posted nothing of value in the last hours/posts (he went to bed, admittedly). I'm eagerly awaiting his defense/offense.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
Ty4on (4)
Droplet .666 .673
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
Royal_Flush .840
Karu .842
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
FluxWaveZ (1)
CrimsonFist .670 .793
CornBurrito .694
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
*Splinter (1)
Ourobolus .826
redhood56 (1)
CrimsonFist .793
No active vote for Day 2:
Kawl_USC
Ty4on
Day 2 ends:
7 votes for majority
Ty4on (4)
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
Royal_Flush .840
Karu .842
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
FluxWaveZ (1)
CornBurrito .694
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
*Splinter (1)
Ourobolus .826
redhood56 (1)
CrimsonFist .793
No active vote for Day 2:
Kawl_USC
Ty4on
Day 2 ends:
7 votes for majority
CornBurrito
Member
Squid is also the one who campaigned for Mazre, karu.
Of course he was. But I was under the impression, that he wanted to see Ty4on go next after Mazre flipped Town? Might have misremembered, but I'm... pretty sure? Either way, my reasoning stands.
I have way too many blind spots at the moment, so I've been looking elsewhere.I guess that's why. Danganronpa was filled with crazy theories from you
What's that brain? Ooh, right, sleep. One thought I had just now is about Splinter today. He admitted to tunneling too hard on me yesterday (716) adds hypothetical theories where I flip town, but hasn't made any new reads of me or even interacted with me.
Poking you throughout today would be a waste of time - it would take a lot for my read of you to change. I'll be back on you later if others still need convincing though.
Speaking of blind spots, I'll be taking a loser look at Crimson after work.
For now, I see that Flux has been building a case against Crim. He's been kind of convincing at times, but one thing that sticks out to me is his insistence on lynching Crim before Ty. I have a couple of tinfoil hat theories worrying me here:
1) Ty and Crim are town, Flux is scum. If Ty is lynched first that would take a lot of heat off of Crim. So Flux tries to lynch Crim first leaving Ty available for tomorrow's lynch.
2) Crim is town, Ty and Flux are scum. Flux is pushing Crim to buy time for his teammate Ty. After Crim flips town, scum hope Ty has lost some heat by tomorrow, but at the very least he's survived another day.
These are worst case scenarios rather than an exhaustive list.
For now, I see that Flux has been building a case against Crim. He's been kind of convincing at times, but one thing that sticks out to me is his insistence on lynching Crim before Ty. I have a couple of tinfoil hat theories worrying me here:
1) Ty and Crim are town, Flux is scum. If Ty is lynched first that would take a lot of heat off of Crim. So Flux tries to lynch Crim first leaving Ty available for tomorrow's lynch.
2) Crim is town, Ty and Flux are scum. Flux is pushing Crim to buy time for his teammate Ty. After Crim flips town, scum hope Ty has lost some heat by tomorrow, but at the very least he's survived another day.
These are worst case scenarios rather than an exhaustive list.
Do you have any new thoughts about Splinter? I haven't found much other than them being the same as yesterday. Maybe reading between the lines that you're more suspicious today.All right guys, I'm ready for today. Promise.
To be fair, I wish I had something more concrete to go off of, but in a game completely devoid of power roles a lot of what we're going to do is based off of gut reads and intuition.
Splinter's initial posts don't sit well with me, to begin with. He harps on redhood a bit, who, while acting a bit suspiciously, is the low-hanging fruit. He doesn't vote, just comments on it. He then adds in his comment about being inactive for the beginning of D1 and says he's disappointed no one went after him for it. It's just a mind-bogglingly weird post to me, for town OR scum. He responded to my initial questioning of it, but I personally wasn't all that satisfied with the response.
He also jumps on you for your (and to be fair, it was a really weird post of yours) post about CornBro. It seemed to me like another instance of latching onto low-hanging fruit. Still, it does have a bit of truth to it, and you're not clear yet in my book.
For a lot of D1 it seemed like he was simply reacting (although CornBro v. Splinter is entertaining to watch). The only real time he took a stand was to call you out about being scum, and as a D1 read, he seemed pretty confident of it. To be perfectly honest, in my mind you and Splinter are tied together - if one flips scum, I'm more than likely willing to believe the other is town.
Anyway, he left his vote on you until the end of the day, so at least he didn't flip-flop a bunch.
D2 has been pretty quiet as a whole, and a lot of the discussion has been centered around the Flux/Crimson/Corn love triangle. I'd be really surprised if there wasn't a scum in that group, though Crimson is my "least likely to be scum" in there. Splinter (as have I and others) are mostly discussing that, although his vote is currently on you.
Apart from that, he has a couple posts just above my pharmaceutical advertisement that essentially say that Flux is scum. While I have no reason right now to think otherwise (Flux is one of my top candidates, up there with Corn and Splinter), I'm wondering if he thinks you and Flux are in cahoots?
So yeah, not much has really happened during D2 to lessen my suspicions, but nothing new has really jumped out either. The Corn/Flux/Crimson debacle is the big elephant in the room right now, and unfortunately I feel like we'll have to deal with that before we get anywhere with Splinter v. Ty4on.