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Heist [Mafia] |OT| Snakes on a Train
- Thread starter YesNOnoNOYes
- Start date
So you think I'm a bit inconsistent in how I perceive posts by others and that give you a null enough read to throw me on the list of those you don't feel a need to pursue?
I find your persistence in lynching Crimson before Ty strange, if you think that there is 2 scum between them and CornB who was another vote flipper. If you thought there was just one scum between Crimson and Ty4on and didn't really have a position on CornB I would find your logic easier to follow. My problem is from your logic either Ty is scum and a scum team mate helped move the votes to save him, or TWO mafia got involved in a high risk gambit to become visible and hopefully get cleared with Ty flips town. While I find it plausible one scum would have gone in on vote flipping, two scum flipping votes in a gambit seems a bit much in a PR-less game.
Vote: Ty4on
While I don't have the biggest scum read on Ty4on he has a few posts that make okay with voting him out and seeing what information he provides by his flip.
This response to Ouro seems strange given how chaotic the end of Day 1 was. I don't really think Ouro could have predict what was going to happen in those last 30 minutes. I know as a fellow bystander who wanted to keep my vote on who I found scummy but would chime in to break a tie if needed, I only felt certain how the vote was going down in the literal last minute.
For other reads/feelings on people:
Ouro - null/slight town read. His ineffectual recap saga from yesterday was pretty drawn out and pretty dumb, which shades him a bit town. I find his logic (see above) for abstaining from voting at the end of the day believable. Others seem to find him suspicious but I suspect that might be from differences in his play style from other games which I do not have the benefit of comparing. Has been more active today versus day 1. I am curious as to why in his big post putting forth the Crimson/Flux/Corn disagreement front and center, he thinks that takes precedence over Ty4on/Splinter. Ty4on plays a key role in the disagreement between the three in my mind. So dealing with Ty would help address both conflicts he is discussing at least some what.
CornB - As someone who was also confused concerning the number of votes/vote lead at the end of day 1, I lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt in his vote flipping. However, a number of his posts today have rubbed me the wrong way.
These two posts are pretty aggressive in response to people wanting to know what gives with all the flip flopping. I see the reason he says he eventually capitulated to Mazre (trust in Squidbro) but I find it a way to pass on the buck for his vote. Considering a vote on Ty would have been a way to soft check his scum read of Royal(or so he though from his posts today), I don't get how you can prioritize seeing if another player's gut is any good when its a two horse race between checking your gut and checking someone else's.
And this vote is super weird. Firstly, the answer is obviously Crab. As for the players in this game I have no idea, and find it a weird train of thought to even go down. It's akin to the pick out the weakest townie on day 1, but we have a good deal more intrigue to analysis and go off of today given how voting went down.
I was null on Corn at the start of the day, but his posts have pushed me to leaning scum read on him now.
Crimson -
This misinterpretation of jumping to defend his vote flipping stuck out to me as a little weird and maybe over defensive.
I disagree with the final sentence of this posts, but I can understand where he is coming from as I find Flux's hard line stance off putting as well.
However, the disagreement between him and Flux and Flux's insistence on lynching him before Ty is a plus in my eyes since I've gotten bad vibes from Flux since pretty much the word go. I will say a town flip from Flux will probably elevate him from null to scum read.
Droplet:
Her vote switch is what precipitated the whole waterfall of switching and possible shenanigans. I'm don't like the logic that the change was precipitated by the desire to have a vote matter. It doesn't matter if your vote was on the one who was lynched or not Day 1, whenever you do get lynched or NK who you had your vote on at the end of the day can still provide valuable information.
Comes out swinging for Ty in the opening of the day, but later back pedals by saying maybe that won't provide as much information as she thought. Her switch too Corn followed by Sawneeks follow up vote 3 post later has the makings of creating another two horse race for lynching which I think is usually a good thing for town versus one clear target.
Overall, null read, but still find her vote switch at the end of the day strange.
Splinter:
Have no idea how to read Splinter but:
Made me chuckle as he basically says well Ty has played a strong scum game, but its not match for the master of deduction that is Splinter...
Redhood:
Again with the jumping into the spotlight with your I'M A TOWNIE sign. I can only shake my head at this point I guess. I think I need to work on sticking my neck out for other people less. Oh well.
Ouro - null/slight town read. His ineffectual recap saga from yesterday was pretty drawn out and pretty dumb, which shades him a bit town. I find his logic (see above) for abstaining from voting at the end of the day believable. Others seem to find him suspicious but I suspect that might be from differences in his play style from other games which I do not have the benefit of comparing. Has been more active today versus day 1. I am curious as to why in his big post putting forth the Crimson/Flux/Corn disagreement front and center, he thinks that takes precedence over Ty4on/Splinter. Ty4on plays a key role in the disagreement between the three in my mind. So dealing with Ty would help address both conflicts he is discussing at least some what.
CornB - As someone who was also confused concerning the number of votes/vote lead at the end of day 1, I lean towards giving him the benefit of the doubt in his vote flipping. However, a number of his posts today have rubbed me the wrong way.
These two posts are pretty aggressive in response to people wanting to know what gives with all the flip flopping. I see the reason he says he eventually capitulated to Mazre (trust in Squidbro) but I find it a way to pass on the buck for his vote. Considering a vote on Ty would have been a way to soft check his scum read of Royal(or so he though from his posts today), I don't get how you can prioritize seeing if another player's gut is any good when its a two horse race between checking your gut and checking someone else's.
And this vote is super weird. Firstly, the answer is obviously Crab. As for the players in this game I have no idea, and find it a weird train of thought to even go down. It's akin to the pick out the weakest townie on day 1, but we have a good deal more intrigue to analysis and go off of today given how voting went down.
I was null on Corn at the start of the day, but his posts have pushed me to leaning scum read on him now.
Crimson -
This misinterpretation of jumping to defend his vote flipping stuck out to me as a little weird and maybe over defensive.
I disagree with the final sentence of this posts, but I can understand where he is coming from as I find Flux's hard line stance off putting as well.
However, the disagreement between him and Flux and Flux's insistence on lynching him before Ty is a plus in my eyes since I've gotten bad vibes from Flux since pretty much the word go. I will say a town flip from Flux will probably elevate him from null to scum read.
Droplet:
Her vote switch is what precipitated the whole waterfall of switching and possible shenanigans. I'm don't like the logic that the change was precipitated by the desire to have a vote matter. It doesn't matter if your vote was on the one who was lynched or not Day 1, whenever you do get lynched or NK who you had your vote on at the end of the day can still provide valuable information.
Comes out swinging for Ty in the opening of the day, but later back pedals by saying maybe that won't provide as much information as she thought. Her switch too Corn followed by Sawneeks follow up vote 3 post later has the makings of creating another two horse race for lynching which I think is usually a good thing for town versus one clear target.
Overall, null read, but still find her vote switch at the end of the day strange.
Splinter:
Have no idea how to read Splinter but:
Made me chuckle as he basically says well Ty has played a strong scum game, but its not match for the master of deduction that is Splinter...
Redhood:
Sorry I haven't been posting a lot, but I have been checking in. I think that one of the flippers is scum(except me, because we all know I'm town). It seems like a perfect opportunity to get a townie out without to much heat to them. I am leaning scum on Ty4on because we he was acting suspicious on day 1 and got away by the skin of his teeth.
Also yesno, you can change my gender from - to male in the op.
While we are here, the moment we have been all waiting for!
Bold Predictions
-Karu and Royal are scum
-Droplet is town
-Crimson is scum
-squidy will be the savior of us all
Again with the jumping into the spotlight with your I'M A TOWNIE sign. I can only shake my head at this point I guess. I think I need to work on sticking my neck out for other people less. Oh well.
I wasn't saying that one should be prioritized over the other, I'm just saying that current discussion seems to be leaning towards focusing on Crimson/Flux/CornBro.
Okay, that's a fair statement. Your vote is on Splinter, you find him scummy enough to outweigh the potential benefit of learning more about both of these scenarios via Ty?
Ty is definitely not free from suspicion from me, but he's just not at the top of my list right now. I will admit that him flipping would provide a lot of information, though. I'd prefer to vote for Flux over Ty for the time being, if only because I have a slightly higher scum read on him.
I suppose "could" would have been a better word here.
Let's assume I've already flipped town. What do you think of Flux changing his mind about me?
I'm not really following Flux's reads well. My main issue is that he puts Crimson in the scum list, and after last day's events I would put Crimson in the "leans town" side of things. If Flux is scum, he could be trying to cover his ass a bit if you flip town. If Flux is town, I still don't really understand his reasoning.
I'll admit I didn't take into account have little time he had, but I wanted to push people who found me to be the scummiest yet didn't vote for me. Right until the end I was in the lead with momentum against me.
While I enjoy this interpretation, perhaps I should explain my post (and general thought process) a little better.
Personally, I found good "pro-town" behaviour quite easy to fake (/brag), and I know many others do too. So when I'm hunting for scum, I pay far more attention to their mistakes than their successes. Yesterday Ty4on (in my eyes) made a post that stood out as unusually scummy, and to me a post like that outweighs a hell of a lot of goody-goody look-how-town-I-am posting. That's part of the reason I'm not wasting time on him today - it would take something pretty unusual to flip my opinion of him at this point.
If you look back to my analysis of all Ty's posts, you'll see there isn't much there that really stands out. I should have explained this better in the conclusion, but it's all background townie stuff. It's not so much scummy in itself (excluding his end of day posts) but there's nothing there to really give me pause on my scumread.
Hopefully that makes more sense, it's just the way I hunt.
CrimsonFist
Member
Vote: FluxWaveZ
Only really took it off to try to prompt Redhood into posting a bit more. I've got quite a bit going on today, but I should be around for the deadline.
Only really took it off to try to prompt Redhood into posting a bit more. I've got quite a bit going on today, but I should be around for the deadline.
Gimme a sec - Flush's tool's down so I'll have to throw it in my script.
Ty4on (5)
Droplet .666 .673
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
Royal_Flush .840
Karu .842
Kawl .852
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
FluxWaveZ (2)
CrimsonFist .670 .793
CornBurrito .694
CrimsonFist .862
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
*Splinter (1)
Ourobolus .826
redhood56 (0)
CrimsonFist .793 .862
No active vote for Day 2:
Ty4on
By my count.
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
Royal_Flush .840
Karu .842
Kawl .852
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
FluxWaveZ (2)
CornBurrito .694
CrimsonFist .862
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
*Splinter (1)
Ourobolus .826
redhood56 (0)
No active vote for Day 2:
Ty4on
By my count.
No, I don't necessarily think that. My wariness doesn't come solely from the act of flipping votes at the last minute (which is why I'm not so focused on CornBurrito or even Droplet), but it's because CrimsonFist was doing it. The process of him doing it, his excuse for it, his demeanor this whole game... can't you guys see it?
I'm not crazy here! Kill me if you want and everything, but can we at least kill CrimsonFist first? I'll tell you my 2 scum partners and everything. Actually, that'd be a bluff if I were scum; maybe just 1?
What were you looking for when you looked them up? They end up looking like padding.
One of the things that sticks out to me is if you're so certain of me being scum; why all the talk of what you think if I flip town? Complete with a "don't make this think I town read him any more" (#717).
That does make more sense. You've been in more games than I have, does this lead to a successfully high catch rate to make up for what I imagine is the also high false positive rate? I think this approach can be useful when a game is lacking leads (say a game with no power roles for example) but I'm also wary of it casting an honest town under the bus for just one mistake. Pardon the meta talk if you will.
I mean I get that you suspect Crimson the most of the three, but you did say that you thought 2 of the 3 were scum, right? I don't want to misrepresent what you are saying.
No, I'm pretty sure I never said that. Point to the post where I did; I feel like you're misinterpreting a lot of what I'm saying.
Seriously? I don't know what you're gonna flip. I don't know when we'll see that flip either. If I start making assumptions and don't find out I'm wrong until much later, I could end up a waste of space for the entire game. Of course I'm going to consider the alternatives.
You being my top suspect doesn't mean I know 100% that you're scum.
That 717 comment is because I thought my posts made it look like I was null or town reading you - which would be misleading.
Yeah that's pretty much the downside to this method. As for success rate... I don't know how it compares to other strategies, it's pretty much the only way I know.
This is the post that had been stuck in my mind. Maybe I'm misinterpreting this a bit.
So its a slightly different argument than I remember. You are saying given the assumption that whichever of the three we lynch flip scum they reveal the same information, ie 2 of the 3 are traitors.
I agree with that. My problem was with the logic that if you thought 2 of the 3 were sure scum (w/o the required assumption of the first flip as scum) that there is any way Ty4on isn't one of the 2.
Which still brings me back to wanting to lynch Crimson over Ty4on. You are pretty confident he is scum. You say above that flip means 2 of the 3 are scum. Do you think two scum went in on a high visibility gambit during a two town thunderdome? That seems ridiculous.
CrimsonFist
Member
Flux, assuming I'm scum, I'd like you to explain why I would have flipped votes like I did. What benefit did I get from flipping from Ty4on to Mazare, over just voting for Mazare in the first place?
I just find it weird to not use any effort on me when I'm going to be lynched today and the thought of me flipping town is lighting up in your head. After me town only has 2 mislynches left if we have three scum and my math is correct.
So my opinion of that is only slightly different now. I'm convinced 1 of those 3 are scum, but if CrimsonFist were to flip scum, my opinion of CornBurrito wouldn't necessarily change right now (approaching null read), while my opinion that Ty4on is scum would increase significantly.
The fact that the common opinion would be that a high visibility gambit is "ridiculous" means that it's a tactic mafia could use for that very purpose. I remember how it was in WW2; and then everyone had to spend an eternity questioning the obvious because it was "too obvious."
I don't know! You tell me. I don't buy your story of flipping to prevent a tie.
I'm gonna go back through this whole thing and try to compile in clearer terms why I think CrimsonFist is scum.
I think it would be ridiculous for both of them to be scum given a town Ty4on. I find it plausible that one of them would be scum. In a game with such limited information one scum doing that gambit would be gutsy, but I think two would be too ballsy. Sure we can wifom into thinking that makes it likely, but I'm gonna go with my gut read on the situation.
Please do, because I don't see how you think that at all.
TheWorthyEdge
Member
Ooooooh man! I'm sorry but I have to ask. Are any of the avatars taken in OP? I can't see Avatars and mobile is fucking up.
RDogs is one of my favorite movies and god damn do I want one of those avatars.
Vote: TheWorthyEdge
RDogs is one of my favorite movies and god damn do I want one of those avatars.
Vote: TheWorthyEdge
CornBurrito
Member
Just putting this out there: I think Ty might be scum. Flux and Sawneeks lack a vote on him and I half suspect Sawn and fully suspect Flux. I of course also lack a vote on Ty. Changing now that I've pointed this out wouldn't mean anything. If Ty is scum, go after anyone who does not yet have a vote on him. Me included. Thanks.
Is that why I was the first to vote on Ty4on on Day 1 (excluding himself) and I never switched my vote to someone else afterwards, unlike you?
Hyperactivity
Banned
tool is down anyways, makes 0 difference
Eh, I like to be consistent. I don't want to have to pause when I'm reading down the list.
CornBurrito
Member
You're correct, that is a hole in my hypothesis. Sawneeks, Ouro, and Karu are implicated instead. And me.
Though I'm thinking Ty will flip town.
CornBurrito
Member
Btw Flux. could you use "unlike you" one more time. I'm actually a neutral that wins the game if someone uses the same exact phrase 100 times. You're at 99 by my count. But I might be one off.
Odd thing to think while suggesting people should turbo me.
What if I do flip town? How do you then read the situation?
Flipping opinions as fast as votes.
Yeah, yeah, gimme a sec. I'd rather we not vote for me, and end up wasting our time again.
Unlike you.
CornBurrito
Member
My opinion changed when I looked back at yesterday and saw you voted him.
First kawl that was a joke. But my current is on ty, but this bothers me. I don't like the "kill me if you want but __" mentality because why would the townie want to weaken the numbers of the town, this goes for the scum too but it sounds off to me. That's not a very good reason I know but it just does
ps- I am really bad at this mafia sorry everyone.
I'm sorry if you thought that was my intention. And I'm sorry I haven't been posting, I have been shanghaid into assisting with things I never planned to get involved in so I've been quite busy with planning christmas festivities and whatnot.
My intention was to point out the logic of why it might be a good idea to lynch you before the people who flipped the lynch away from you and onto mazre. I voted for someone I wanted to lynch. Someone who resides in the group of people who didn't get involved in either vote and were keeping their distance. I think that whether you're scum or not there's scum in that group and while Ourobolus doesn't read the same way he did when he was obvious, obvious, scum in Animal Crossing I also think he's played many games since than and has become a much better player and there is something about his posting that has rubbed me the wrong way since the start.
YesNOnoNOYes
Member
CURRENT VOTE TALLY:
Ty4on (5)
Droplet .666 .673
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
Royal_Flush .840
Karu .842
Kawl_USC .852
FluxWaveZ (2)
CrimsonFist .670 .793
CornBurrito .694
CrimsonFist .862
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
squidyj (1)
Ty4on .897
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
*Splinter (1)
Ourobolus .826
redhood56 (0)
CrimsonFist .793 .862
Day 2 ends:
7 votes for majority
Ty4on (5)
*Splinter .717
redhood56 .809
Royal_Flush .840
Karu .842
Kawl_USC .852
FluxWaveZ (2)
CornBurrito .694
CrimsonFist .862
CornBurrito (2)
Droplet .792
Sawneeks .795
squidyj (1)
Ty4on .897
CrimsonFist (1)
FluxWaveZ .624
Ourobolus (1)
squidyj .770
*Splinter (1)
Ourobolus .826
redhood56 (0)
Day 2 ends:
7 votes for majority