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[sonycowboy]

This is from a Wedbush Morgan Analyst Report released today.

They also have some very company specific comments, but if I include them, this post would be 5 times as large. If you guys want, I can post them.

The Nightmare Before Christmas: Hellish Holiday Lineup of New Video Games Could Spell Disaster for Many Publishers

This fall, U.S. and International video game publishers will release what is in our view the most formidable lineup of new games ever released in a single year. We believe that a handful of games will dominate sales through the holidays and for several months thereafter, and anticipate that several U.S. publishers will suffer from the competitive impact. In this note, we discuss the extraordinary release schedule for the balance of the year, and forecast the near term and longer-term impact on each U.S. publisher on our coverage list.

Overview
In each of the past seven years, a handful of games has dominated the annual sales figures. Over this period, an average of 11 games sold more than 1 million units in the U.S., with “big” games accounting for an average of 12% of total annual sales. This year, we estimate that 11 SKUs will sell more than 1 million units apiece, for a total of 26.6 million units sold out of an estimated 218.1 million units of all games sold.

(Year) (NumTitles of Million Sellers) (Unit Sales of Million Sellers) (Total Annual Sales) (Total SKUS)
(approx.)
1997 7 10.4 mm 70.4 mm 14.8% 330
1998 12 15.6 mm 102.3 mm 15.2% 335
1999 15 23.6 mm 125.5 mm 18.8% 510
2000 15 22.2 mm 130.6 mm 17.0% 715
2001 7 9.0 mm 141.4 mm 6.4% 650
2002 9 17.3 mm 162.8 mm 10.6% 915
2003 10 15.3 mm 186.5 mm 8.2% 850
Average 10.7 16.2 mm 131.4 mm 12.3% 615
2004E 11 26.6 mm 218.1 mm 12.2% 825
Source: NPD Funworld TRSTS data and Wedbush Morgan Securities estimates

We expect the following 11 SKUs each to sell more than 1 million units:
1) Take-Two Interactive’s (TTWO—Buy and Focus List) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas for PS2;
2) Microsoft’s (MSFT—Not Rated) Halo 2 for Xbox;
3) Electronic Arts’ (ERTS—Buy) Madden NFL 2005 for PS2 and
4) Need for Speed Underground 2 for PS2;
5) Sony’s (SNE—Not Rated) Gran Turismo 4 for PS2; Activision’s (ATVI—Buy and Focus List)
6) Spider-Man 2 for PS2 and
7) Tony Hawk’s Underground 2 for PS2;
8) Nintendo’s (NTDOY—Not Rated) Pokemon Leaf Green and
9) Fire Red for GBA;
10) Konami’s (KNM—Not Rated) Metal Gear Solid 3 for PS2; and
11) Midway’s (MWY—Hold) Mortal Kombat: Deception for PS2.

In addition to these console and handheld titles, we also expect three PC games to break the million-unit threshold in 2004, including last month’s Activision release Doom 3, this month’s Electronic Arts release The Sims 2.0, and November’s Vivendi-Universal (V—Not Rated) release Half-Life 2. We expect the total unit sales for the 11 console/handheld million unit SKUs plus the three PC million unit SKUs to exceed 30 million units in calendar 2004.

The impact of these expected best sellers is likely to be significant for all publishers. Those who publish one or more of the big games are likely to deliver positive year-over-year comparisons to last year. Those who don’t are likely to face a difficult hurdle compared to last year. We think that it is important to note the distribution of the 186.5 million console and handheld video games sold last year, with 97 million sold over the first nine months of the year and the remaining 89 million sold over the last three months. We project that during 2004, total unit sales will be even more skewed, with an estimated 104 million units sold over the first nine months and the remaining 114 million sold over the last three months.

Of the 11 million-unit selling SKUs we forecast for 2004, only four (the two Pokemon titles, Spider-Man 2, and Madden NFL 2005) will have been released as of September, with the remaining seven released during the last three months of the year. It should be noted that last year’s million-unit sellers included two Pokemon titles and last year’s version of Madden. Six of the remaining eight SKUs (Need for Speed and Tony Hawk are the exceptions) are sequels to games released in 2002 or prior, and none of the six had a comparable release during 2003. The math is relatively simple: we believe that the six new SKUs (Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Halo 2, Gran Turismo 4, Metal Gear Solid 3, Spider-Man 2 and Mortal Kombat: Deception) will account for the bulk of the year-over-year increase in sales that we forecast for the final three months of the year, meaning that the rest of the field will likely compete for the same number of consumer dollars this year as last.

We expect the six “new” SKUs to account for over 17 million units sold in 2004, meaning that 97 million of the 114 million units we expect to be sold will be “up for grabs” by publishers of other games. Although this is a healthy increase in units over the 89 million sold during last year’s fourth quarter, we note that several big proposition games were released earlier in 2004 (among them Harry Potter, Fight Night, Pokemon Colosseum, ESPN NFL 2K5, Shrek 2, and DRIV3R) that are expected to generate significant sales during the holidays. In addition, there are a large number of games tied to theatrical releases this holiday, including Shark Tale, Polar Express, The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie, The Incredibles, and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events. We believe that this highly competitive release schedule will pose problems for many publishers, and outline our thoughts below.

COMPANY SPECIFIC COMMENTS ....

 

[djtiesto]

Post em

 

[Baron Aloha]

Hellish Holiday Lineup of New Video Games Could Spell Disaster for Many Publishers

And I'll be waiting in February, ready to feast on the remains.

 

[BuddyC]

The Nightmare Before Christmas: Hellish Holiday Lineup of New Video Games Could Spell Disaster for Many Publishers

See, it's funny because there are one or two NBC games due out this fall.

 

[Prospero]

Post the company-specific comments if you can, and you've got the time.

 

[DarienA]

I for one do not believe that GT4 will be released this year. Just my gut feeling.

 

[Ghost]

Cant wait for the "Joyous January Sales Heaven for cheap ass gamers" article

I will only own 1 of these 11 million sellers this year

Is Deception really gonna sell a million on PS2 this year? wow.

 

[sonycowboy]

Remember, the company specific comments are just for EA, TTWO, Activision, Midway, & THQ - so there not all that exciting, although they do list the upside, downside, and future prospects of each of those companies for this holiday and early next year.

Projected Million Sellers
---------------------------
PS2 - 8
GBA - 2
Xbox - 1
GC - 0
Nintendo DS - 0

Also, they aren't projecting ESPN NFL2k5 or NCAA 2005 to hit a million although I'm pretty much positive they both will before the end of this year. Although you could argue that all 11 of those games are going to BLOW AWAY a million whereas the others will most likely ~barely reach it, so maybe that's the reason.

 

[sonycowboy]

Cant wait for the "Joyous January Sales Heaven for cheap ass gamers" article

I will only own 1 of these 11 million sellers this year

Is Deception really gonna sell a million on PS2 this year? wow.

The first one sold 660k in Nov/Dec for the PS2, so I'm thinking it will be a stretch. But then again, this one will get a monster PR marketing budget, which could work wonders.

 

[Alcibiades]

post the rest dude

seems like a good read

I think more than those 11 games will reach a million though.

I think Pokemon Colosseum still has a chance...

Pikmin 2 is also Nintendo's biggest release for the year so far, although it might take more than 2004 to have it's shot at a million.

either way, NFL 2k5 for both XBox and PS2 are pretty much guaranteed to sell a million, and by now, they are probably selling well enough against Madden to really eat into EA.

Halo 1 might also sell a million copies considering the Halo 2 hype.

The math is relatively simple: we believe that the six new SKUs (Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas, Halo 2, Gran Turismo 4, Metal Gear Solid 3, Spider-Man 2 and Mortal Kombat: Deception) will account for the bulk of the year-over-year increase in sales that we forecast for the final three months of the year, meaning that the rest of the field will likely compete for the same number of consumer dollars this year as last.

We expect the six “new” SKUs to account for over 17 million units sold in 2004

that would have to break down to about:

Halo 2 - 4 million
San Andreas - 4 million
GT4 - 2 million
Spidey 2 (PS2) - 1.5 million
Snake Eater - 1.5 million
Deception (PS2) - 1 million

that would be my guess as to what they are guessing.

 

[sonycowboy]

Activision

Activision (ATVI—Buy and Focus List)
Big games already released: Shrek 2 (6 SKUs), Spider-Man 2 (6 SKUs), Doom 3 (PC).
Big games scheduled for release: Shark Tale (5 SKUs), X-Men Legends (3 SKUs), Call of Duty Finest Hour (3 SKUs), Doom 3 (Xbox), Tony Hawk’s Underground 2 (5 SKUs), Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events (5 SKUs).

Discussion: Activision’s current guidance calls for revenues of $515 million in the December quarter followed by revenues of $120 million in the March quarter. These levels compare to revenues of $509 million and $163 million in the same quarters last year. In other words, the company’s guidance reflects an expectation that holiday sales may be challenging, with a combined 4% decline in year-over-year revenues forecast. The consensus and our estimates
are about in line with company guidance.

We believe that Activision is on solid footing to deliver at or above its guidance for the balance of the fiscal year. The company’s December quarter lineup compares quite favorably to last year’s December lineup, with Shark Tale and XMen scheduled to launch at the end of September and with Call of Duty, THUG 2, and Lemony Snickets launching during the quarter. We expect sales of these titles to at least equal sales of last year’s Disney’s Extreme Skate Adventure, True Crime, and THUG 1. Notwithstanding the challenge from a slate of extremely competitive products, including the already released Harry Potter, Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2, and the scheduled releases of Polar Express and The Incredibles, we think that Activision’s lineup should generate sales at or above its sales last December. The March quarter typically reflects the success or failure of games released during the December quarter. Accordingly, should Activision’s games perform in line with its performance during the prior December quarter, we would anticipate that there may be upside to company guidance.

Upside: We believe that the company has generated substantial initial sales of its Spider-Man 2 game at a $49.95 price point, and anticipate that the game will continue to sell through quite well during the holidays and beyond, especially if its retail price is lowered to $29.99.

Downside: Game delays could impact Activision’s numbers. Given its history with external developer id Software, rumors about a possible delay of Doom 3 for Xbox must be taken seriously.

Outlook Beyond Christmas: Activision has a solid lineup of games scheduled for release in FY:06 (beginning April 1, 2005), including Quake IV, Madagascar, The Movies, and sequels to True Crime, Tony Hawk, Spider-Man, and Call of Duty. We believe that the company is well positioned to grow earnings in FY:06, and do not think that this belief is widely shared by the investment community. We expect the company to provide FY:06 guidance after the holidays, and think that the stock could be somewhat range bound until then.

Conclusion: We think that Activision’s guidance is sufficiently low so as to eliminate concerns about game delays. We think that upside from Spider-Man 2 are likely to drive sales substantially higher than guidance, and we anticipate that the company will slip one or more games from the September quarter into the December quarter, followed by a delay of Doom 3 on Xbox until the March quarter. Notwithstanding these possible delays, we expect Activision to meet or exceed consensus expectations for the remainder of the year.

 

[sonycowboy]

Atari

Atari (ATAR—Buy)
Big games already released: DRIV3R (PS2 and Xbox).
Big games scheduled for release: Dragon-Ball Z (4 SKUs), Roller Coaster Tycoon (PC).

Discussion: Atari’s current guidance calls for revenues of $285 million combined for the December and March quarters. This compares to revenues of $257 million in the same quarters last year. In other words, the company’s guidance reflects an expectation that holiday sales will be strong, with a combined 11% increase in year-over-year revenues forecast. The consensus estimate is $269 million, and our estimate is in line with company guidance.

We believe that Atari is likely to achieve consensus revenue estimates, and may achieve its guidance range for the balance of the fiscal year. The company’s December quarter lineup is dominated by games based upon Japanese animated television shows, including Dragon-Ball Z, Yu-Yu Hakusho, Duel Masters, and games based upon the successful Dungeons and Dragons franchise. We believe that this year’s holiday lineup compares to last year’s December lineup, given that several games released last holiday were disappointments. Notwithstanding the competition this holiday, we think that Atari’s lineup is sufficiently unique and differentiated from the pack to allow it to generate sales at or above its sales last December. Should the company succeed in growing revenues year-over year in the December quarter, we expect a similar result during the March quarter.

Upside: There is probably no upside to guidance, based upon the release schedule announced to date. The company may announce additional games to be released during the March quarter, at which time we will revisit our estimates.

Downside: Game delays and poor game quality could impact Atari’s performance. One of the games we had initially expected to sell very well was DRIV3R, which received below average review scores. As a result, we do not anticipate significant reorders for this game, placing pressure on the company to meet expectations. Should any other key games receive poor reviews or be delayed, the company will likely have difficulty meeting expectations.

Outlook Beyond Christmas: Atari has not provided its lineup of games scheduled for release in FY:06 (beginning April 1, 2005). We expect a sequel to Enter the Matrix, and note that the company’s uneven performance so far in FY:05 creates a relatively easy comparison for next year. Although we expect sales of the holiday blockbusters to dominate March quarter sales, we think that several of Atari’s titles could perform quite well after the holidays.

Conclusion: Though we think that Atari’s guidance is achievable, we note that the company will be hard pressed to exceed the revenue level of last year, when the company shipped Enter the Matrix. We are hopeful that the company can deliver games on time, and that game quality will be above average. Should these two events occur, we expect Atari to meet or exceed consensus expectations for the remainder of the year.

 

[Subitai]

Pokemon saving Nintendo
Halo 2 saving MS

VENUSAUR & CHARIZARD vs Master Chief

*grabs popcorn*

 

[sonycowboy]

EA

Electronic Arts (ERTS—Buy)
Big games already released: Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban (5 SKUs), Fight Night (PS2 and Xbox), NCAA Football 2005 (3 SKUs), Madden NFL Football 2005 (5 SKUs) and NASCAR 2005 Chase for the Cup (3 SKUs).
Big games scheduled for release: Tiger Woods PGA Tour 2005 (4 SKUs), FIFA Soccer 2005 (6 SKUs), GoldenEye Rogue Agent (3 SKUs), Need for Speed Underground 2 (5 SKUs), Burnout 3 (PS2 and Xbox), NBA Live 2005 (4 SKUs), The Sims 2.0 (PC), and several others.

Discussion: Electronic Arts’ current guidance calls for revenues of between $2,153 million and $2,288 million combined for the December and March quarters, with “roughly flat” results for the December quarter. This compares to revenues of $2,074 million in the same quarters last year. In other words, the company’s guidance reflects an expectation that holiday sales will be modestly better than the prior year, with a combined 7% increase in year-over year revenues forecast (using the midpoint of guidance). The consensus estimate is $2,234 million, and our estimate is in line with the $2,220 million midpoint of company guidance.

We believe that Electronic Arts is likely to achieve consensus revenue estimates for the six-month period, but believe that the company may have difficulty in delivering any meaningful revenue or earnings growth for the December quarter. The company’s December quarter lineup does not compare favorably to last year’s holiday lineup, when sales were led by franchises such as Medal of Honor, Lord of the Rings (with a movie tie-in), and The Sims Bustin’ Out. Although we believe that this year’s holiday lineup is a strong one, it is not as compelling as last year’s, and virtually all of this year’s holiday games (except for GoldenEye and Burnout) are sequels to games released last year.

We believe that this places Electronic Arts at a competitive disadvantage, as we expect consumers to allocate scarce video game dollars to games that don’t come along annually.

Upside: There is probably little upside to consensus for the December quarter, but may be some upside to revenue guidance for the March quarter, as the company has some flexibility to announce additional games to be released during the March quarter.

Downside: We see little downside to Electronic Arts’ performance over the near term. There are only two possible issues we see on the horizon that may impact the stock price. First is a potential mismatch between the company’s December results and expectations. We note that revenue and earnings guidance calls for “roughly flat” December results. This guidance has been interpreted by analysts as meaning “up slightly” (consensus is looking for EPS of $1.29/share, up 3¢ over last year). Should December earnings be lower than last year’s level, we think that the stock could be adversely impacted. Second, we think that the threat from Take-Two’s ESPN sports games has the potential to impact sales of EA’s sports titles. Should Electronic Arts suffer a decline in year-over-year sales of its sports titles (either in unit volume or through lower dollar sales as a result of competitive discounts), we think that its stock price could suffer over the near term. We note that at least one retailer has listed EA Sports’ NBA Live 2005 for $39.95, implying that the company will respond to competition by cutting prices, which could impact margin and earnings.

Outlook Beyond Christmas: Electronic Arts has not provided its lineup of games scheduled for release in FY:06 (beginning April 1, 2005), and has offered only a partial list of titles expected for release during the March quarter. The company has significant flexibility in scheduling releases, and we expect it to increase the number of titles released during the March quarter should it need them in order to achieve revenue guidance. The company also has a deep catalog of older titles, and has sufficient marketing strength to drive catalog sales after the holidays.

Conclusion: We expect Electronic Arts to meet consensus expectations for the December quarter, and to deliver some earnings and revenue upside for FY:05. Over the near term, we expect the company to suffer a decline in market share, and we believe that this could trigger a compression of the historical premium stock price/earnings multiple that the company has enjoyed in the past. We expect the multiple to rebound in the spring, once the impact
of this holiday’s lineup has been felt.

 

[Subitai]

Hmm, I didn't see Killzone and more surprisingly GT4 on the big 11.

 

[SolidSnakex]

Hmm, I didn't see Killzone and more surprisingly GT4 on the big 11.

5) Sony’s (SNE—Not Rated) Gran Turismo 4 for PS2

 

[inpHilltr8r]

Killzone is new IP, and thus unlikely to be a million seller.

 

[Alcibiades]

thanks dude!

interesting read indeed!

 

[sonycowboy]

Killzone is new IP, and thus unlikely to be a million seller.

Well SOCOM was a new IP once.

IMO, If it can average over an 8 on gamerankings, it's going to blow past 1 million easy. There simply isn't any competition on the PS2 other than SOCOM and even it's not a direct competitor. So word of mouth on this game will be key. Of course, the problem with that is that word of mouth will be directly related to Halo 2, fair or not.

 

[Subitai]

5) Sony’s (SNE—Not Rated) Gran Turismo 4 for PS2

Oh thanks.

I still think analysts are underestimating Killzone potential. Just half of the Socom owners need to buy it before Christmas.

 

[Izzy]

They're seriously underestimating the potential of some games. I believe more than 11 games will sail past the 1M mark.

 

[sonycowboy]

They're seriously underestimating the potential of some games. I believe more than 11 games will sail past the 1M mark.

Which games?

I don't see any Gamecube having a shot (Metriod Prime has only sold 1,167,703 LTD)

For the XBox, Fable has an outside shot and if NFL2k5 keeps going it does as well, but they are not guaranteed. (If KOTOR, which got GOTY from many sites, had alot of buzz, and had the Star Wars license couldn't make it, Fable's going to have a tough time)

For the PS2, I don't see many other contenders either. Driv3r won't make it, although it had a clear shot if not for it's quality. And I already covered Killzone, then ESPN2k5 and NCAA 2005, which will make it but not by major amounts, which was probably what he was looking at in his projections.

 

[Mooreberg]

That list looks to be right on target. Maybe publishers will finally learn that unless a game is on the same popularity level as GTA, Halo, and Gran Turismo that they will not benefit by releasing everything at once. Spread the releases out, dammit.

 

[Subitai]

That list looks to be right on target. Maybe publishers will finally learn that unless a game is on the same popularity level as GTA, Halo, and Gran Turismo that they will not benefit by releasing everything at once. Spread the releases out, dammit.

It's not that as much as the fact that wallets open wider for the holidays.

 

[Izzy]

Which games?

Dragon Ball Z 3 and Burnout 3, for example.

 

[Redbeard]

How about Splinter Cell 3?

 

[Shoryuken]

Which games?
I don't see any Gamecube having a shot (Metriod Prime has only sold 1,167,703 LTD)

Pokemon Colloseum? It's at 630,000 as of the end of July. With the release of Fire Red/Leaf green and parents shopping for kids this holiday I think it's definitely possible for it to reach 1 million.

 

[sonycowboy]

Dragon Ball Z 3 and Burnout 3, for example.

Dragon Ball Z 3 actually has a shot. The previous 2 both were released in December and did MONSTER sales. However, the second had a significant drop-off from the first one in comparable time frames. If the trend continues, it won't make it.

Burnout 3 on a single platform (PS2) doesn't have a shot. With GT4, Forza, NFSU 2, Midnight Club 3, Juiced, etc. there's simply not enough to go around and while it's a great franchise, the average gamer doesn't know it at all. Plus, it'll be day old bread by the time November rolls around. I'd bet that Midnight Club 3 will outsell it.

(of course, Midnight Club 3 is looking reeallll good. I'm gonna have a completely pimped out Escalade The customization of this game will not be touched by anyone; GT4, NFSU2, Forza - anyone.)

 

[sonycowboy]

How about Splinter Cell 3?

Nope. Coming out a week after Halo 2 isn't a great place to be. And they've already squeezed out one title this year.

Pokemon Colloseum? It's at 630,000 as of the end of July. With the release of Fire Red/Leaf green and parents shopping for kids this holiday I think it's definitely possible for it to reach 1 million.

Again, very not a chance. Here's the sales for the title:

March 342,603
April 155,639
May 56,692
June 46,997
July 28,971

No way is Pokemon GBA going to give it a bounce, certainly not enough to get it to 150k each for November and December.

It's a pretty substantial myth that old games get big bounces in November, December. It just doesn't happen. November & December belong to the big new releases, which is why the smaller new releases get killed.

 

[Izzy]

Burnout 3 on a single platform (PS2) doesn't have a shot.

Across the platforms. On PC, both Half Life 2 and Doom 3 will easily break that mark. Metroid Prime 2 also has the chance since it's Nintendo's big gun for this holiday season.

 

[sonycowboy]

Across the platforms. On PC, both Half Life 2 and Doom 3 will easily break that mark. Metroid Prime 2 also has the chance since it's Nintendo's big gun for this holiday season.

Burnout 3 - nope, even if you add in the Xbox version

In addition to these console and handheld titles, we also expect three PC games to break the million-unit threshold in 2004, including last month’s Activision release Doom 3, this month’s Electronic Arts release The Sims 2.0, and November’s Vivendi-Universal (V—Not Rated) release Half-Life 2.

Metroid Prime 2 - Again, not likely, at least based on the previous titles performance.

 

[DSN2K]

How about Splinter Cell 3?

bomb bomb imo.....

 

[Duckhuntdog]

Why not, Prime broke a million units, why can't Echoes???

 

[wazoo]

meaning that 97 million of the 114 million units we expect to be sold will be “up for grabs” by publishers of other games.

That is the most interesting part. The majority of sales will be on games that the majority of people will not call million seller (for good reason, they will not sell 1Million) but as a publisher I would prefer to have 20 games at 800K than only one game selling over 1M.

 

[lexy]

Projected Million Sellers
---------------------------
PS2 - 8
GBA - 2
Xbox - 1
GC - 0
Nintendo DS - 0

That reminds me, where does the DS fit into the scheme of things this holiday season? Has Nintendo announced a release date in NA or Japan?

 

[Senretsu]

The Nightmare Before Christmas: Hellish Holiday Lineup of New Video Games Could Spell Disaster for Many Publishers

who didn't predict this was gonna happen, many games will be lost. game liquidation will commence next March when stores try to dump all these games that are coming out.

This holiday season is hype mania

 

[SolidSnakex]

Why not, Prime broke a million units, why can't Echoes???

They're referring to games that are going to break a million before the end of the year. I don't think Metroid really has any chance of doing that.

 

[Subitai]

Nope. Coming out a week after Halo 2 isn't a great place to be. And they've already squeezed out one title this year.



Again, very not a chance. Here's the sales for the title:

March 342,603
April 155,639
May 56,692
June 46,997
July 28,971

No way is Pokemon GBA going to give it a bounce, certainly not enough to get it to 150k each for November and December.

It's a pretty substantial myth that old games get big bounces in November, December. It just doesn't happen. November & December belong to the big new releases, which is why the smaller new releases get killed.

It is too close to call for me. Averaging 73,819 for the next 5 months shouldn't be out of reach if the there are price cuts and the thinner GCN release list.

If there aren't price cuts in Oct., it is a little to far based on current trends.

 

[MetatronM]

Across the platforms. On PC, both Half Life 2 and Doom 3 will easily break that mark. Metroid Prime 2 also has the chance since it's Nintendo's big gun for this holiday season.

Across all platforms doesn't count. They said they expect only 11 SKUs to surpass 1 million, not 11 unique games. Each platform's version has a different SKU, therefore that doesn't factor into the accounting process.

Also, if you read, they expect 3 games to break 1 million on the PC: Doom 3, The Sims 2, and Half-Life 2.

Metroid Prime 2 probably won't make it past 1 million. At least not during the holiday season. Just way too many other monster titles to be able to pull it off.

 

[Alcibiades]

One of the games we had initially expected to sell very well was DRIV3R, which received below average review scores. As a result, we do not anticipate significant reorders for this game

I suggest to all retailer workers out there to keep this game stocked in the back and only get one when people ask for it, and remind them it got bad reviews but people's tastes are different. Your goal should be 1 sale per week at most for this piece of crap. If you want, leave a copy or two out behind other titles where it's not visible. The less opportunity for impulse buys the better.

 

[JJConrad]

If Metroid Prime 2 doesn't have a chance of reaching a million I don't see how Mortal Kombat: Deception does either.... that is... based on past sales...

MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY --- PS2 ---- MIDWAY ------ 1,178,524

VS.

METROID PRIME --- GCN ------ NINTENDO ------ 1,167,703



I also have my reservations about MGS3 (at least not this year) and Spider-man 2 (with the movie hype gone, it could drop fast).

 

[M3wThr33]

Lest I remind you, last I checked, FF8 outsold FF7. Previous popularity sometimes rises above a game's quality regardless of sales.

 

[kaching]

It's not that as much as the fact that wallets open wider for the holidays.

Not THAT much wider though. Seriously, let's experiment with a less holiday oriented publishing cycle, guys.

 

[etiolate]

I expect dissapointing sales for THUG 2. Perhaps MGS3, also. Everyone's being herded towards the the three big hitters.

Videogame industry turning into the music industry. =/

 

[TheGreenGiant]

Across all platforms doesn't count. They said they expect only 11 SKUs to surpass 1 million, not 11 unique games. Each platform's version has a different SKU, therefore that doesn't factor into the accounting process.

Also, if you read, they expect 3 games to break 1 million on the PC: Doom 3, The Sims 2, and Half-Life 2.

Metroid Prime 2 probably won't make it past 1 million. At least not during the holiday season. Just way too many other monster titles to be able to pull it off.

Don't see where you got that from. I didn't think Metroid Prime 2 is going on any other platform. Nintendo fans will lap it up as will MP converts. And this whole comment is in the perspective that it is on the gamecube; where class AAA exclusives will sell.

 

[Alcibiades]

If Metroid Prime 2 doesn't have a chance of reaching a million I don't see how Mortal Kombat: Deception does either.... that is... based on past sales...

MORTAL KOMBAT: DEADLY --- PS2 ---- MIDWAY ------ 1,178,524

VS.

METROID PRIME --- GCN ------ NINTENDO ------ 1,167,703



I also have my reservations about MGS3 (at least not this year) and Spider-man 2 (with the movie hype gone, it could drop fast).

Mortal Kombat is still a casual-friendly name, and many of the 300,000+ Cube sales are going to be going somewhere for the holiday season. That said, I think now that 1 million might be a little optimistic.

Echoes looks like it's going to be a big hit, but it hasn't reached any big level of hype. Hopefully, the bundle brings Metroid back into the converstion within the gaming community.

 

[wazoo]

About Burnout 3, this game will break the million easily in Europe. But since we are talking about US, I expect small performance. The jump to EA for Criterion was to improve US visibility, which may increase the sales nonetheless.

 

[JJConrad]

1) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - million plus, not a problem

2) Halo 2 - easy million

3) Madden NFL 2005 (PS2)- probably already passed a million

4) Need for Speed Underground 2 (PS2)- questionible.... probably, but GT4 may hurt it.

5) Gran Turismo 4 - easy million

6) Spider-Man 2 (PS2)- probably will, but it might be close.

7) Tony Hawk’s Underground 2 (PS2)- may not happen in this year. THPS 3 seemed to be the high point this gen - every game since has seen a decent drop from the previous.

8) Pokemon Leaf Green - no problem

9) Pokemon Fire Red - no problem

10) Metal Gear Solid 3 - I just don't see it making it to a million before January

11) Mortal Kombat: Deception (PS2) - won't happen...maybe eventually


I'd also say... Keep an eye on:

Pokemon Colloseum - has a slight chance to crawl over the top
Metroid Prime 2 - if they think MK D can do a million.. I think MP E can do it
Paper Mario 2 - It won't sell a million, but sales for PM and M&L are suprisingly high.
Crash Twinsanity (PS2) - Sad, but true.... it'll probably outsell 3 or 4 games on Wedbush's list.

 

[Alcibiades]

Here's how I would adjust that:

1) Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas - million plus, not a problem

2) Halo 2 - easy million

3) Madden NFL 2005 (PS2)- probably already passed a million

4) Need for Speed Underground 2 (PS2)- easy million, as NFS: U did 1.2 million in December alone for PS2 last year. Probably will challenge GT4 greatly.

5) Gran Turismo 4 - easy million

6) Spider-Man 2 (PS2)- this shouldn't be to hard because of the DVD release coming up in December, and probably a price cut will happen

7) Tony Hawk’s Underground 2 (PS2)- will probably happen, as it's October's other monster title (other than San Andreas and Paper Mario. The first THUG was popular, and the userbase number have really grown. Gets a nice release date over 2 weeks ahead of San Andreas

8) Pokemon Leaf Green - no problem

9) Pokemon Fire Red - no problem

10) Metal Gear Solid 3 - has a shot at a million, but will probably disappoint

11) Mortal Kombat: Deception (PS2) - probably not, but has a decent shot with no GCN version

I say watch out for:

Pokemon Colosseum - the game can do a good 75,000+ in September with the returning Pokemon craze. remember when the NES-edition GBA and NES-Classic series came out back in early June, the Gamecube had it's best software month this year, with Smash Brothers doing 65,000 units in that month alone. With a natural bump from increased GCN sales in September + Pokemon craze, this will do some solid numbers in September

NFL 2k5 - has probably already reached a million on each console

Paper Mario 2 - this would have a great shot at going 700,000+ really fast if it wasn't for the fact that Mario Tennis and Mario Party 6 are probably gonna hit a few weeks later, taking away the "only new Mario game" hit potential

Echoes - this will probably depend on whether Nintendo has a good pre-order incentive like they did last year with Mario Kart: Double Dash. A bonus disc of some kind or a Wind Waker type deal with some demos or something would really increase the chances of this game doing a million really quick. That said, the bundle alone is going to increase exposure. If Nintendo has great hardware sales, then everything will get a natural bump anyway.

Pikmin 2 - the game seems to be much better received than the excellent first one. The great thing about this game is that it's kick-starting Christmas for Nintendo, so it's going to have some good time on the shelves before the end of the year. The word-of-mouth (especially with a multiplayer mode now) should be pretty strong. Pikmin 1 would be doing better right now if retailers still carried the game, but I think Nintendo didn't want to have too many copies of the first one out to compete with this one, as casuals may have wanted to give the budget first-one a try when they heard about how cool the series was.

GoldenEye - the PS2 version will probably be big bases on userbase + name recognition alone. if NFS: U can do 1.2 million in December alone last year, this can probably do 1 million in one and a half months. that said, the GCN version would have some superb sales if EA was to include something special like multiplayer maps or something from the first one as a bonus.

 

[Broshnat]

All I can say (and it has been said a number of times already) is that this holiday season is gonna be incredibly crowded, especially on PS2. Surely releasing GTA:SA, GT4 and MGS3 at virtually the same time is only going to have a detrimental effect on the sales of all three games?

Although saying that, MGS2. GT3 and GTA3 were all released mid-end 2001, but not as close, and GT3 didn't sell that amazingly to start with- it was only when it went down to budget price that it really took off.

Add in the usual big xmas sellers- TH UG, NFS UG 2, Dragonball Z 3, MK: Deception and although I can see them selling well, for all titles to hit a million then those four would have to sell well over 500k in December alone, and with GTA:SA needing to do 1.5M to keep up, and MGS3 around 600k as well (not to mention GT4 and Madden which usually goes up to around 700k again in Dec), all I can see is some low numbers compared to previous years and previous versions, ten games selling well over 500k in Dec alone? Unlikely.

The cube and X-box on the other hand, have fewer titles competing, and so if anything, i can see titles like Halo 2 and Metroid Prime 2 doing very well (although whoever said that Halo 2 will do 4 million in Nov/Dec is seriously deluded- maybe 2 million at tops...)