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[Alcibiades]

All I can say (and it has been said a number of times already) is that this holiday season is gonna be incredibly crowded, especially on PS2. Surely releasing GTA:SA, GT4 and MGS3 at virtually the same time is only going to have a detrimental effect on the sales of all three games?

Although saying that, MGS2. GT3 and GTA3 were all released mid-end 2001, but not as close, and GT3 didn't sell that amazingly to start with- it was only when it went down to budget price that it really took off.

Add in the usual big xmas sellers- TH UG, NFS UG 2, Dragonball Z 3, MK: Deception and although I can see them selling well, for all titles to hit a million then those four would have to sell well over 500k in December alone, and with GTA:SA needing to do 1.5M to keep up, and MGS3 around 600k as well (not to mention GT4 and Madden which usually goes up to around 700k again in Dec), all I can see is some low numbers compared to previous years and previous versions, ten games selling well over 500k in Dec alone? Unlikely.

The cube and X-box on the other hand, have fewer titles competing, and so if anything, i can see titles like Halo 2 and Metroid Prime 2 doing very well (although whoever said that Halo 2 will do 4 million in Nov/Dec is seriously deluded- maybe 2 million at tops...)

I didn't say they'd do 4 million, I'm just guessing that's what the analysts are guessing, considering the hype being done by retailers and Microsoft.

I mean, supposedly, every videogame retailer worker is asking people if they want to reserve the game. that will undoubtedly have some effect if it's a nation-wide campaign that Gamestop and EBgames are doing.

4 million just makes sense.

 

[Broshnat]

10) Metal Gear Solid 3 - has a shot at a million, but will probably disappoint

11) Mortal Kombat: Deception (PS2) - probably not, but has a decent shot with no GCN version

I say watch out for:

Pokemon Colosseum - the game can do a good 75,000+ in September with the returning Pokemon craze. remember when the NES-edition GBA and NES-Classic series came out back in early June, the Gamecube had it's best software month this year, with Smash Brothers doing 65,000 units in that month alone. With a natural bump from increased GCN sales in September + Pokemon craze, this will do some solid numbers in September

NFL 2k5 - has probably already reached a million on each console

Paper Mario 2 - this would have a great shot at going 700,000+ really fast if it wasn't for the fact that Mario Tennis and Mario Party 6 are probably gonna hit a few weeks later, taking away the "only new Mario game" hit potential

Echoes - this will probably depend on whether Nintendo has a good pre-order incentive like they did last year with Mario Kart: Double Dash. A bonus disc of some kind or a Wind Waker type deal with some demos or something would really increase the chances of this game doing a million really quick. That said, the bundle alone is going to increase exposure. If Nintendo has great hardware sales, then everything will get a natural bump anyway.

Pikmin 2 - the game seems to be much better received than the excellent first one. The great thing about this game is that it's kick-starting Christmas for Nintendo, so it's going to have some good time on the shelves before the end of the year. The word-of-mouth (especially with a multiplayer mode now) should be pretty strong. Pikmin 1 would be doing better right now if retailers still carried the game, but I think Nintendo didn't want to have too many copies of the first one out to compete with this one, as casuals may have wanted to give the budget first-one a try when they heard about how cool the series was.

GoldenEye - the PS2 version will probably be big bases on userbase + name recognition alone. if NFS: U can do 1.2 million in December alone last year, this can probably do 1 million in one and a half months. that said, the GCN version would have some superb sales if EA was to include something special like multiplayer maps or something from the first one as a bonus.

I'm a bit of a nintendo fanboy myself, but I must correct you on a few things, I'm afraid...

The reason for a sales spike in June was the same reason it happens every year, not due to NES Series selling well etc. I'm afraid the release of Pokemon FR / LG won't boost Colosseum sales by much. Would be nice to see it hit a million by the end of the year, but 850k is more realistic.

Unfortunatley as much as I'd love Pikmin 2, Donkey Konga and Paper Mario 2, Mario Tennis to do well, they will probably do around 400k-600k a piece (this year- 700k + is easily possible in their lifetimes). Mario Party 6 may have a realistic chance at getting close to a million, and I'd love to see Echoes fulfil it's potential and be a real threat to Halo 2, but we'll have to wait and see.

Seems that Nintendo has a pretty strong lineup this year in terms of decent games that will sell 500k or so, but I guess they are lacking any real killer titles. Let's hope the overally quality of the games, numbers of big-ish titles (PM, Pikmin 2 etc) and continued good sales from MKD, Mario Sunshine, Smash Bros etc (especially if they go to Player's Choice), and maybe a couple of suprises, will bode well for Nintendo this christmas.

 

[SolidSnakex]

All I can say (and it has been said a number of times already) is that this holiday season is gonna be incredibly crowded, especially on PS2. Surely releasing GTA:SA, GT4 and MGS3 at virtually the same time is only going to have a detrimental effect on the sales of all three games?

All of those games cater to a different fanbase. With the size of the PS2's fanbase, you have different people owning them for different reasons, some for sports, some for racers ect ect. Those will all do fine because they all have dedicated installed fanbases. The one PS2 big hitter that could be the odd man out is Killzone, because it really doesn't have any fanbase. It'll all depend on how well Sony markets it and how well the game turns out.

 

[Alcibiades]

I'm a bit of a nintendo fanboy myself, but I must correct you on a few things, I'm afraid...

The reason for a sales spike in June was the same reason it happens every year, not due to NES Series selling well etc. I'm afraid the release of Pokemon FR / LG won't boost Colosseum sales by much. Would be nice to see it hit a million by the end of the year, but 850k is more realistic.

Unfortunatley as much as I'd love Pikmin 2, Donkey Konga and Paper Mario 2, Mario Tennis to do well, they will probably do around 400k-600k a piece (this year- 700k + is easily possible in their lifetimes). Mario Party 6 may have a realistic chance at getting close to a million, and I'd love to see Echoes fulfil it's potential and be a real threat to Halo 2, but we'll have to wait and see.

Seems that Nintendo has a pretty strong lineup this year in terms of decent games that will sell 500k or so, but I guess they are lacking any real killer titles. Let's hope the overally quality of the games, numbers of big-ish titles (PM, Pikmin 2 etc) and continued good sales from MKD, Mario Sunshine, Smash Bros etc (especially if they go to Player's Choice), and maybe a couple of suprises, will bode well for Nintendo this christmas.

we shall see

that said, I'd say we'll see a definite bump in Pokemon Colosseum sales this month.

 

[Insertia]

predictions are fun.

GTA:SA- 4.2 million
Halo2- 3.1 million
Madden- 2.8 million
Gran Turismo 4- 2.5 million
NFSU 2- 2.3 million
Spiderman 2- 2.0 million
MGS3- 1.8 million
THUG 2- 1.5 million
MK Deception- 1.1 million

 

[Broshnat]

predictions are fun.

GTA:SA- 4.2 million
Halo2- 3.1 million
Madden- 2.8 million
Gran Turismo 4- 2.5 million
NFSU 2- 2.3 million
Spiderman 2- 2.0 million
MGS3- 1.8 million
THUG 2- 1.5 million
MK Deception- 1.1 million

GTA:SA- 3.9 million
Madden- 2.9 million
Pokemon FR/LG- 2.5 million
Halo2- 2.1 million
Gran Turismo 4- 1.6 million
MGS3- 1.4 million
NFSU 2- 1.3 million
Spiderman 2- 1.3 million
THUG 2- 1.0 million
M.Prime 2- 0.9 million
Pokemon Coll- 0.85 million
Mario Party 6- 0.8 million
MK Deception- 0.8 million
Pikmin 2- 0.7 million (really hope I'm wrong and this can do a million)
PMario 2- 0.5 million
DKonga- 0.45 million
MTennis - 0.4 million

 

[AniHawk]

Oh why the fuck not.

GTASA: 4 million
Halo 2: 2 million
FiLe: 2 million
GT4: 1.6 million
MGS3: 1.3 million
MP2E: .8 million
PM2TTYD: .5 million
MP6: .5 million
Pikmin 2: .4 million
Mario Tennis: .4 million
Donkey Konga: .2 million

 

[etiolate]

Is Mario Tennis coming to the US this year? Likely not a million seller, but the first was popular and multiplayer first party titles on cube always seem to sell well.

 

[AniHawk]

Is Mario Tennis coming to the US this year? Likely not a million seller, but the first was popular and multiplayer first party titles on cube always seem to sell well.

Mario Tennis was moved up to replace Star Fox.

 

[Broshnat]

Yep. First one did about 650k I think.


So everyone thinks that GTA:SA will be down on Vice City's 4.5m?

 

[Broshnat]

On a side note, go back 3 years and look what you get:

Dec 2001

Rank Title Platform Publisher Release Date Average Retail Price
1 Grand Theft Auto 3 PS2 Rockstar Games Oct'01 $50
2 Super Smash Brothers Melee GCN Nintendo of America Dec'01 $50
3 Metal Gear Solid 2 PS2 Konami of America Nov'01 $49
4 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3 PS2 Activision Oct'01 $48
5 Madden NFL 2002 PS2 Electronic Arts Aug'01 $49
6 Harry Potter & The Sorcerer's Stone PSX Electronic Arts Nov'01 $40
7 Halo XBX Microsoft Nov'01 $49
8 Jame Bond in... Agent Under Fire PS2 Electronic Arts Nov'01 $50
9 Pokemon Crystal GBC Nintendo of America Jul'01 $29
10 Super Mario Advnace GBA Nintendo of America Jun'01 $30
11 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 3 PSX
Activision Oct'01 $39
12 Pikmin GCN Nintendo of America Dec'01 $50
13 Super Mario Cart: Circuit GBA Nintendo of America Aug'01 $30
14 WWF Smackdown Just Bring It PS2 THQ Nov'01 $50
15 Harry Potter & The Sorcerer's Stone GBA Electronic Arts Nov'0 $38
16 Spyro the Dragon: Season of Ice GBA Vivendi Universal Oct'01 $38
17 NBA Live 2002 PS2 Electronic Arts Oct'01 $49
18 Tony Hawk's Pro Skater 2 PSX Activision Sep'00 $20
19 SpongeBob SquarePants: SuperSponge PSX THQ Sep'01 $19
20 Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec PS2 Sony Computer Entertainment Jul'01 $49


2001 Top 10 Video Game Titles, Sorted by Units

1
PS2 Grand Theft Auto 3
Rockstar Games
(Take 2 Interactive)
OCT '01
$50.33

2
PS2 Madden NFL 2002
Electronic Arts
AUG '01
$49.62

3
GBC Pokemon Crystal
Nintendo of America
JUL '01
$29.24

4
PS2 Metal Gear Solid 2
Konami of America
NOV '01
$48.57

5
GBA Super Mario Advance
Nintendo of America
JUN '01
$29.85

6
PS2 Gran Turismo 3: A-Spec
Sony
JULY '01
$49.70

7
PS2 Tony Hawks Pro Skater 3
Activision
OCT '01
$47.82

8
PSX Tony Hawks Pro Skater 2
Activision
SEPT '00
$28.83

9
GBC Pokemon Silver
Nintendo of America
OCT '00
$29.17

10
PSX Driver 2
Infogrames
NOV '00
$29.52

 

[SolidSnakex]

Yep. First one did about 650k I think.


So everyone thinks that GTA:SA will be down on Vice City's 4.5m?

Nope, I expect GTA to be around 5 million by the end of the year.

 

[AniHawk]

Yep. First one did about 650k I think.


So everyone thinks that GTA:SA will be down on Vice City's 4.5m?

669,958 to be exact. The game was more popular in Japan and North America than Mario Golf 64 (which barely creeped past 1 million in those territories combined).

And I think GTASA will be down simply because of all the competition this year. Wont be by much though.

 

[Broshnat]

669,958 to be exact. The game was more popular in Japan and North America than Mario Golf 64 (which barely creeped past 1 million in those territories combined).

And I think GTASA will be down simply because of all the competition this year. Wont be by much though.

Yeah, I'd agree. I think it may be even lower that I said before though, could end up "struggling" on 3.5 m

 

[Bog]

"We expect the six “new” SKUs to account for over 17 million units sold in 2004"

that would have to break down to about:

Halo 2 - 4 million
San Andreas - 4 million
GT4 - 2 million
Spidey 2 (PS2) - 1.5 million
Snake Eater - 1.5 million
Deception (PS2) - 1 million

that would be my guess as to what they are guessing.

Spider-man 2 isn't a new SKU.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

Additional publisher comments by Wedbush Morgan from the same research report:

On Take-Two Interactive and GTA:SA

Take-Two Interactive (TTWO—Buy and Focus List)

Big games already released: Red Dead Revolver (PS2 and Xbox) and ESPN NFL 2K5 (PS2 and Xbox).

Big games scheduled for release: Grand Theft Auto: San Andreas (PS2) and several ESPN sports games.

Discussion: Take-Two’s current guidance implies revenues of $470 million for the October quarter (the company has not provided guidance for FY:05, ending October 31). This compares to revenues of $277 million in the October quarter last year. In other words, company guidance reflects an expectation that pre-holiday sales will be strong, with an increase in year-over-year revenues of almost 70%. The consensus estimate is in line with company guidance, and our estimate is $6 million higher.

For the combined October and January quarters, the consensus revenue estimate is $906 million and our estimate is$935 million, compared with a combined $654 million in revenues over the same period last year. Again, this implies an increase in holiday year-over-year revenues of approximately 35 – 40%.

We believe that Take-Two is highly likely to meet or exceed the consensus revenue estimate for October, as it has one of the projected blockbuster games. We have modeled sales of 4.5 million units of GTA San Andreas ($180 million) during the quarter, and note that the prior version of the game sold 1.5 million units in the U.S. over a three day period. This year’s version is scheduled for worldwide release on October 19, and we foresee no difficulty selling through the entire number of units we have modeled this fiscal year. Notwithstanding the competition this holiday, we think that GTA San Andreas is fairly well differentiated from other games, and note that the game has a loyal following. In our view, this is the “must have” game, and we expect sales to exceed those of the last two iterations.

Upside: We believe that there is no upside to guidance, as we expect Take-Two to ship only the number of GTA units necessary to achieve guidance. It is possible that the company’s ESPN sports games could drive some revenue upside over the holidays, but we do not expect significant earnings contribution from these games over the near term.

Downside: There are two potential hurdles. First, we believe that Take-Two is likely to provide initial FY:05 EPS guidance below the consensus $2.27 estimate. Our $2.15 estimate is based upon GTA San Andreas selling through a similar number of units as the prior game sold. In order for Take-Two to provide guidance at the consensus level, we believe that the company would have to indicate confidence that this year’s version will set an all-time sales record. We do not consider it likely that the company will be so bold, notwithstanding our belief that the game will ultimately sell a record number of units. Second, we believe that Take-Two is likely to delay the launch of GTA San Andreas in the U.S. by a week (to October 26) and in Europe by two weeks. We expect a delay due to company concerns about overwhelming demand, coupled with the company’s desire to meet consensus expectations for FY:04. A delay would allow the company to meet consensus and to manage consumer expectations about availability of the game.

Outlook Beyond Christmas: Take-Two has provided almost no guidance about other games planned for release after the close of the fiscal year. We are confident that Midnight Club III: Dub Edition and The Warriors will debut some time in FY:05, but are not able to fill out the remainder of Take-Two’s release schedule for next year. Notwithstanding the lack of new title visibility, we believe that GTA San Andreas will be the biggest blockbuster of this holiday season, and that sales will continue well into the next fiscal year. Should an Xbox SKU of the game be announced for release in early 2005, we think that Take-Two’s shares could appreciate significantly.

Conclusion: We think that Take-Two will gain market share this holiday. We expect the company to deliver its key game on time, and are hopeful that its game quality will continue to be well above average. Should these two events occur, we expect Take-Two to meet consensus expectations this year.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

Wedbush Morgan on THQ:

THQ, Inc. (THQI—Hold)
Big games already released: Full Spectrum Warrior (Xbox).

Big games scheduled for release: The Incredibles (6 SKUs), The SpongeBob SquarePants Movie (5 SKUs), WWE (3 SKUs), Tak 2 The Staff of Dreams (4 SKUs) and The Polar Express (4 SKUs).

Discussion: THQ’s current guidance calls for revenues of $510 million combined for the December and March quarters. This compares to revenues of $416 million in the same quarters last year. In other words, the company’s guidance reflects an expectation that holiday sales will be robust, with a combined 22.6% increase in year-over-year revenues forecast. The consensus estimate is $505 million, and our estimate is street low at $487 million.

We believe that THQ is at risk to fall short of the consensus $335 million revenue estimate for December, as it has none of the projected blockbuster games, and faces stiff competition from a slate of extremely competitive products. These include the already released Harry Potter, Spider-Man 2, Shrek 2, and the scheduled releases of Shark Tale and Lemony Snicket’s A Series of Unfortunate Events. Although we expect The Incredibles to perform quite well (we have modeled sales of 1.65 million units or $50 million during the quarter), it is our belief that the market for “E” rated games will not expand sufficiently to allow upside to our estimates. We expect THQ to market The Incredibles aggressively, and anticipate strong consumer response to the title. However, we think that the availability of recognizable competitive products at lower prices will affect THQ’s sales during the holiday period.

Upside: We do not believe that there is significant upside to guidance. Should The Incredibles stand out from the pack of children’s games based upon feature films, we think that THQ could achieve its revenue and earnings guidance.

Downside: We see some downside to THQ’s share price in the event that the company has difficulty achieving its revenue and earnings guidance. The stock already trades at a discount to its historical multiple, so we believe that the stock reflects investor expectations of a small miss. To the extent that THQ falls short of our estimates, there could be further downside.

Outlook Beyond Christmas: THQ has intentionally shifted several games originally scheduled for release in calendar 2004 to the March quarter. We expect games such as The Punisher, S.T.A.L.K.E.R., and Destroy All Humans to perform well during the March quarter, although we note that other companies (notably Electronic Arts and Midway) have also delayed several games that will be competitive. We expect resolution of the negotiations for renewal of the company’s Nickelodeon license, and believe that if renewed, investor concerns about future revenue growth will be alleviated. We note that the third installment in THQ’s arrangement with Disney/Pixar (Cars) is due to be released at holiday 2005, allowing the company an opportunity to deliver year-over-year revenue growth next year.

Conclusion: We think that THQ will be hard pressed to gain market share this holiday, given the competitive products offered by other companies. We think that the company will likely deliver revenue and earnings slightly below consensus, and think that patient investors will be rewarded over the longer term as revenue and earnings growth should rebound in FY:06.

 

[UbiSoftologist]

Wedbush Morgan on Midway Games:

Midway Games (MWY—Hold)

Big games already released: NBA Ballers (PS2 and Xbox) and The Suffering (3 SKUs).

Big games scheduled for release: Mortal Kombat (3 SKUs).

Discussion: Midway’s current guidance calls for revenues of $77 million for the December quarter (the company has not provided guidance for FY:05, ending December 31). This compares to revenues of $30 million in the December quarter last year. In other words, company guidance reflects an expectation that holiday sales will be strong, with an increase in year-over-year revenues of over 150%. The consensus estimate is $80 million, and our estimate is about in line with company guidance.

We believe that Midway is highly likely to exceed the consensus revenue estimate for December, as it has one of the projected blockbuster games. We have modeled sales of 1.5 million units of Mortal Kombat ($60 million) during the quarter, and note that the prior version of the game sold over 2 million units. Notwithstanding the competition this holiday, we think that Mortal Kombat is fairly well differentiated from other games, and note that the game has a loyal following.

Upside: We believe that there is significant upside to guidance, perhaps as much as $40 million should Mortal Kombat sell a greater number of units than the last iteration.

Downside: The only downside we can foresee is a game delay or poor game quality. We expect neither, and think that Mortal Kombat will receive strong reviews from the gaming press, and will sell through quite well.

Outlook Beyond Christmas: Midway has intentionally shifted several games originally scheduled for release in FY:04 to next year. We expect games such as Area-51, NARC, a sequel in the SpyHunter series, and several new intellectual properties to be released next year, and note that the company’s uneven performance so far this year creates a relatively easy comparison for next year. Further, we expect the company to capitalize on majority shareholder Sumner Redstone’s relationship with Viacom (VIA—Not Rated), allowing it to compete for licensed properties as they become available. Although we expect sales of the holiday blockbusters to dominate March quarter sales, we think that Mortal Kombat is likely to perform quite well after the holidays.

Conclusion: We think that Midway will gain market share this holiday. We are hopeful that the company can deliver games on time, and that its game quality will continue to be above average. Should these two events occur, we expect Midway to exceed consensus expectations for the remainder of the year.

 

[sonycowboy]

I can't believe how many of you are doubting MGS3. It will blow past 1 million easy and my prediction is for it to hit at least 1.5 by the end of the year.

MGS2 may have taken some of the wind out of the sales (pun intended) and MGS wasn't really as big as many people think (it's at like 2.5 million NPD), but I think Kojima is really, really putting together something special and I expect it to get a good deal of buzz in November.

Add in a potential GT4 delay and you'd only be left with 2 killer PS2 megasales titles. GTA:SA & MGS3.

Also, THUG did better than TH3 in comparable timeframes and much, much better than TH4 (PS2 Versions).

TH3 (2001)
Sales as of May 2002 - 1,226,557

TH4 (2002)
Oct 165,281
Nov 321,941
Dec 483,954
Sales as of June 2003 - 1,099,990

THUG (2003)
Oct 144,842
Nov 359,924
Dec 707,522
Sales as of May 2004 - 1,374,114


I don't know how that'l translate this year though. 4 years in a row is definitely going to be pushing it. I don't think it'll hit a million, but it did last year so...

 

[Duckhuntdog]

Well, I still have dubbed November the "Death month" for games that have no hype behind them. Why UBI AGAIN put PoP 2 in November is beyond me. Even a slight nudge to December would help PoP 2 greatly.

 

[Broshnat]

I can't believe how many of you are doubting MGS3. It will blow past 1 million easy and my prediction is for it to hit at least 1.5 by the end of the year.

MGS2 may have taken some of the wind out of the sales (pun intended) and MGS wasn't really as big as many people think (it's at like 2.5 million NPD), but I think Kojima is really, really putting together something special and I expect it to get a good deal of buzz in November.

Add in a potential GT4 delay and you'd only be left with 2 killer PS2 megasales titles. GTA:SA & MGS3.

Also, THUG did better than TH3 in comparable timeframes and much, much better than TH4 (PS2 Versions).

TH3 (2001)
Sales as of May 2002 - 1,226,557

TH4 (2002)
Oct 165,281
Nov 321,941
Dec 483,954
Sales as of June 2003 - 1,099,990

THUG (2003)
Oct 144,842
Nov 359,924
Dec 707,522
Sales as of May 2004 - 1,374,114


I don't know how that'l translate this year though. 4 years in a row is definitely going to be pushing it. I don't think it'll hit a million, but it did last year so...

MGS 2 has done around 2.1 million in the US, and about the same for MGS. I think 2 million is a fairly safe bet for lifetime sales of MGS 3, it's traditionally a top-heavy game (as in sells most in first 2-3 months), so 1.3-1.4 million in Nov / Dec is reasonable, and a touch above what MGS 2 did.

I expect THUG 2 to perform about on par with TH 4.

 

[sonycowboy]

MGS 2 has done around 2.1 million in the US, and about the same for MGS.

I already put down MGS sales in the post you quoted ~ 2.5 million NPD.

MGS2 is @ 2,009,837 and boy is it dead at retail right now. Here's the sales for the past several months:

Dec 11,376
Jan 2,192
Feb 1,401
Mar 1,000
Apr 606
May 443
June 659
July 677

For comparison, most of the pretty old top flight GH games sell at least around 5k a month and upwards of 15k. I can't really explain it.

 

[AniHawk]

I already put down MGS sales in the post you quoted ~ 2.5 million NPD.

MGS2 is @ 2,009,837 and boy is it dead at retail right now. Here's the sales for the past several months:

Dec 11,376
Jan 2,192
Feb 1,401
Mar 1,000
Apr 606
May 443
June 659
July 677

For comparison, most of the pretty old top flight GH games sell at least around 5k a month and upwards of 15k. I can't really explain it.

Substance is another 260k though, ain't it?

 

[Cathcart]

I wouldn't be surprised if Halo 2 sold a million copies in its first week. Live is going to implode.

 

[Alcibiades]

I already put down MGS sales in the post you quoted ~ 2.5 million NPD.

MGS2 is @ 2,009,837 and boy is it dead at retail right now. Here's the sales for the past several months:

Dec 11,376
Jan 2,192
Feb 1,401
Mar 1,000
Apr 606
May 443
June 659
July 677

For comparison, most of the pretty old top flight GH games sell at least around 5k a month and upwards of 15k. I can't really explain it.

it all comes down to one thing: distribution. the Best Buy I worked out (just like with Twin Snakes) wouldn't be getting more copies in since I started working.

First-party GH/PC/PH titles are usually better at getting to the stores for longer periods of time. That said, the MGS franchise has been seriously challenged by the emergence of Splinter Cell (as different as they may be). UbiSoft has put out two outstanding games in less than two years, and another one is on the way. MGS is sort of on the back of people's minds when it comes to stealth. If Twin Snakes sales are anything to go by in terms of signal of the health of the franchise, I don't think MGS3 will reach MGS2 sales LTD.

 

[SolidSnakex]

"That said, the MGS franchise has been seriously challenged by the emergence of Splinter Cell (as different as they may be). UbiSoft has put out two outstanding games in less than two years, and another one is on the way. MGS is sort of on the back of people's minds when it comes to stealth."

You'd have a poinbt if PT didn't bomb and if MGS3 wasn't dwarfing SC3 in hype and anticipation.

 

[Broshnat]

MGS 3 will struggle to do much more than 2 million in it's lifetime. Halo 2 will not sell a million in a week (no way!!). About 2m by the end of the year for halo, and 1.3m for MGS 3 (MGS2 was on about 1.22m in Nov/Dec 2001)