Hideaki Anno predicts decline of anime in 5 to 20 years

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With how much they are charging just for a few episodes for anime on Blu-ray, I am surprise it didn't die earlier than that. The industry just keep raising prices for the core fan-base that keep getting smaller until it consume itself.
 
Sinistral said:
Anime may be declining but how about Manga?

Seeing as Anime are largely Manga adaptations, and fronts to sell more Manga; are popular Manga filled with Moeblobs?

But the real issue is that it is not financially sound to produce an anime without heavy merchandizing. What are some of the things that can alleviate this?

I don't know enough about that industry to understand production there. Are the tools lagging behind? I know they're mostly digital there now but, are there efforts to further decrease that workload? Things like Paperman that came out a while ago seemed like some real promising technology.

Here, animation, albiet 3D has pitfalls too. Companies chasing tax incentives, employees working damn near minimum wage with no overtime pay or benefits or long term prospects. Shows chasing merchandizing too. It's a race to the bottom, and that's applicable for any industry it seems lately.
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Manga is such a different beast. It's a little more varied and the best thing about it is that it has dug a focused vision since it's the work of a single author or a very small team. I've really fallen in love with manga over anime in the last few years.

There are also tons of great amateur manga and manga-styled indie and web comics that continue to amaze me.

kiunchbb said:
With how much they are charging just for a few episodes for anime on Blu-ray, I am surprise it didn't die earlier than that. The industry just keep raising prices for the core fan-base that keep getting smaller until it consume itself.
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ABSOLUTELY. Anime really really really needs to find ways to better utilize digital media. It seems like a no brainier. They've made some great strides in the last couple of years, but they need to start knocking it out of the park. It's the perfect format for digital media and streaming.
 
Haly said:
Manime won't return in the same way the 80s won't return.

They might get rebooted for the modern age like Hollywood is rebooting properties for this decade's audience, but that just means Kenshiro will turn into Kenshi-chan, a magical girl using her ancient martial arts to fight motorcycle gangs, set in a post apocalyptic world.
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Make it like Magical Girl Of The End and I'm in.
 
kiunchbb said:
With how much they are charging just for a few episodes for anime on Blu-ray, I am surprise it didn't die earlier than that. The industry just keep raising prices for the core fan-base that keep getting smaller until it consume itself.
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DVDs used to be worse. I got like 2 DVDs of Eva back in like 2001 for 50 bucks. 4 episodes each.
 
FlyingSaucer said:
And you never said anything about completeness.



Most Go Nagai TV adaptations these past years have been pretty good :D
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That was kind of what I was trying to imply by saying "a REAL complete adaptation". Even the OVAs (which are great) take some liberties with the story. Also that's good to hear about Go Nagai adaptations. I've really only gotten into his mangas in the last 2 years or so.
 
mullet2000 said:
If anime dies will anime avatars die with it?
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Raonak said:
5-20 years? Just enough time for One Piece to end.
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lol, doubt it.

Sinistral said:
Anime may be declining but how about Manga?

Seeing as Anime are largely Manga adaptations, and fronts to sell more Manga; are popular Manga filled with Moeblobs?

But the real issue is that it is not financially sound to produce an anime without heavy merchandizing. What are some of the things that can alleviate this?

I don't know enough about that industry to understand production there. Are the tools lagging behind? I know they're mostly digital there now but, are there efforts to further decrease that workload? Things like Paperman that came out a while ago seemed like some real promising technology.

Here, animation, albiet 3D has pitfalls too. Companies chasing tax incentives, employees working damn near minimum wage with no overtime pay or benefits or long term prospects. Shows chasing merchandizing too. It's a race to the bottom, and that's applicable for any industry it seems lately.

Edit: A fan of Anime for a while, not watching much lately but I just watched the amazing Ghibli documentary after reading this thread. As I work in a 3D Animation studio, curiosity fills me.
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Manga, like every industry, will have its ups and downs in terms of profits, but it IS a mainstream medium over in Japan. Anime on the other hand is pretty niche over there if it isn't a kid's show.

If manga sees a really steep declines, it will be because the aging population (or other massive issues with the country) has reached crisis levels and not due to any changes within the industry itself.
 
Cornbread78 said:
I'm surprised more people just don't visit the Anime OT and ask for recommendations for shows that may interest them that don't include fanservice or something else they wouldn't like in Anime. The members there could probably pinpoint thar in minutes if it existed..
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Because the people making those comments don't watch anime and/or don't care to know what there actually is available.

Far easier to just jump on the bandwagon and make some shitty comments.
 
cosmicblizzard said:
lol, doubt it.



Manga, like every industry, will have its ups and downs in terms of profits, but it IS a mainstream medium over in Japan. Anime on the other hand is pretty niche over there if it isn't a kid's show.

If manga sees a really steep declines, it will be because the aging population (or other massive issues with the country) has reached crisis levels and not due to any changes within the industry itself.
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Even if the anime is not for a kids it will still be done because it's advertisement for the manga or light novels .
Sales are niche but that is also partly because Japan refuses to move to a business model where it can be cheaper .
I can see anime sales dropping fulling off unless they change the way how thing are done but anime it's self will still be around for advertisement .

As for anime being made in Japan i expect more and more of it to be outsource but that is to be expected .
 
It does seem like a lot of the more 'artsy' side of the industry is struggling for money while a lot of shovel ware trash is making bank. These things go in waves though so instead of allowing it to let you down rejoice that it all will come tumbling down as it returns to nothing before a glorious rebirth
 
Anime in Japan needs to charge as much as it does because if it didn't, revenue would crash.

Low prices isn't going to magically increase the number of sales given the type of products being released.
 
Jazzy Network said:
DVDs used to be worse. I got like 2 DVDs of Eva back in like 2001 for 50 bucks. 4 episodes each.
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Well the latest scam is the Blu-Rays hold the uncensored versions. So if you wanna see boobs or decapitation you better wait for the expensive Blu-ray version. Some people end up double dipping. Its worth it to watch anime without cut scenes, giant black boxes or bars.
 
jackal27 said:
Manga is such a different beast. It's a little more varied and the best thing about it is that it has dug a focused vision since it's the work of a single author or a very small team. I've really fallen in love with manga over anime in the last few years.

There are also tons of great amateur manga and manga-styled indie and web comics that continue to amaze me.
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Manga is also often much better than anime, so it has that going for it also

Okay I said that a bit jokingly but honestly I feel like a lot of the shonen and slice of life stuff that dominates the enthusiast anime scene works a lot better in a manga format than in anime actually
 
Protag said:
Great first post

Death and Rebirth. Kill this little girl fetish garbage and give us the goods.
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Amennnn. Japan is going to implode even more if all men are more into cartoon little girls than women.

(but I don't watch a lot of anime)

SUCKS to hear that animation work isn't valued in Asia. That shit is hard.
 
Dark Ninja said:
Well the latest scam is the Blu-Rays hold the uncensored versions. So if you wanna see boobs or decapitation you better wait for the expensive Blu-ray version. Some people end up double dipping. Its worth it to watch anime without cut scenes, giant black boxes or bars.
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How do they end up double dipping ?
It's not like they buying the censored version to watch in the first place.

The Technomancer said:
Manga is also often much better than anime, so it has that going for it also

Okay I said that a bit jokingly but honestly I feel like a lot of the shonen and slice of life stuff that dominates the enthusiast anime scene works a lot better in a manga format than in anime actually

Actually I think manga is better suited for just about everything, but I'm very biased towards manga
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Manga has price going for it .
Which is a huge factor , why buy 3 ep of the anime when you get 5 Vols for the same price.
 
The Technomancer said:
Manga is also often much better than anime, so it has that going for it also

Okay I said that a bit jokingly but honestly I feel like a lot of the shonen and slice of life stuff that dominates the enthusiast anime scene works a lot better in a manga format than in anime actually
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It totally does. You know how in Shonen fights there's always a cut to people reacting to what just happened? Those reactions are usually panels next to the big action panel that those character's are reacting to. Also the pace of the fights are better in Manga form because we read inner monologues or exposition faster than actors can say them.
 
CrazyDiamond said:
It totally does. You know how in Shonen fights there's always a cut to people reacting to what just happened? Those reactions are usually panels next to the big action panel that those character's are reacting to. Also the pace of the fights are better in Manga form because we read inner monologues or exposition faster than actors can say them.
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Pacing is a huge advantage manga has over anime i feel. Like, its not just that you can read it at your own speed, its that the best manga artists seem to have discovered the right structure for visual storytelling. That's something that grabbed me about it even as a kid and honestly its something what Western comics I've dipped my toe into still struggle with
 
The Technomancer said:
Pacing is a huge advantage manga has over anime i feel. Like, its not just that you can read it at your own speed, its that the best manga artists seem to have discovered the right structure for visual storytelling. That's something that grabbed me about it even as a kid and honestly its something what Western comics I've dipped my toe into still struggle with
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Yeah. I don't even see why you're joking. Manga on the whole is just much better than anime. Much larger variety. Generally made by one person with assistants, so you get the story and art straight from the writer/artist. When adapted to anime, the anime usually either ends up having to cut out material or has bad pacing issues.
 
The Technomancer said:
Pacing is a huge advantage manga has over anime i feel. Like, its not just that you can read it at your own speed, its that the best manga artists seem to have discovered the right structure for visual storytelling. That's something that grabbed me about it even as a kid and honestly its something what Western comics I've dipped my toe into still struggle with
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There's something really limp about action scenes in American comics, as much as I love them. There's not a lot of momentum to them, it's like Batman is standing in a room and then a panel of a badguy running into the room and then a page spread of Batman punching the guy that just entered halfway across the room with no in between, it's really just static sets of images.

I don't watch enough anime to really say where everything is headed. I'll watch a Shonen here or there like JoJo or Ippo, maybe a really interesting original work like Madoka or something classic that a bunch of people recommended to me like Legend of the Galactic Heroes. I can't really label the majority as moe-shit but nothing in the current line-ups besides sequels or adaptations of things I'm already interested in really grab me.
 
Regarding Anime vs. Manga, I can't knock many of the points being made - a mediocre anime adaptation will be inferior to its manga source material every-time and things like pacing are big issues for mediocre anime adaptations. However, the power and influence of strong direction, animation, music, color and lighting, etc. can really elevate material and take it in directions manga just can't go. Do note I'm talking about GOOD anime adaptations like Ping Pong, Jojo's Bizarre Adventure, Monthly Girls' Nozaki-kun, etc. Even isolated episodes of long running series like Naruto Shippuden (see Episode 375), when they get the A-list animators on the job, can be superb (the show overall is still trash but every once in a while.......). This is of course to say nothing of Anime-Original projects (Space Dandy and other Watanbe works, Gundam Build Fighters, etc.) and those that take significant liberties with the source material but do it for the better (Birdy the Mighty or even the recent Blood Blockade Battlefront).
 
Crocodile said:
Regarding Anime vs. Manga, I can't knock many of the points being made - a mediocre anime adaptation will be inferior to its manga source material every-time and things like pacing are big issues for mediocre anime adaptations. However, the power and influence of strong direction, animation, music, color and lighting, etc. can really elevate material and take it in directions manga just can't go. Do note I'm talking about GOOD anime adaptations like Ping Pong, Jojo's Bizarre Adventure, Monthly Girls' Nozaki-kun, etc. Even isolated episodes of long running series like Naruto Shippuden (see Episode 375), when they get the A-list animators on the job, can be superb (the show overall is still trash but every once in a while.......). This is of course to say nothing of Anime-Original projects (Space Dandy and other Watanbe works, Gundam Build Fighters, etc.) and those that take significant liberties with the source material but do it for the better (Birdy the Mighty or even the recent Blood Blockade Battlefront).
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I think anime absolutely works better when its based on original material. Like, I have a complicated opinion of Space Dandy, but its absolutely an example of something that works better as an anime than any manga adaption could be.
But a lot of anime that I see or skim is either trying to adapt a manga or at the very least feels like its restricting itself in the way that manga adaptions are restricted.I have yet to encounter a slice of life show, for example, that I felt really made use of its medium (or, for that matter, held my attention for more than four episodes, but thats neither here nor there)

I guess certain types of thriller work better also? I dunno, I'm trying to work Paranoia Agent into this somewhere because Kon is my reference point for really fucking good anime but I suspect that's more a reflection of his skill than it is anything inherent to the medium
 
as long as I get my kyoto animation slice of life anime, something like Tamako Market ..

but honestly, I don't think it will happen the way he describes it. but somehow a crash will come..
 
The thing about manga is that the audience for it AFAIK is just so much larger than anime. Last I looked there are dozens of manga digest publications in Japan. Manga only requires one author and maybe a few helpers to produce a series. With such a low cost barrier to entry, it is much closer to print fiction. There's something for everyone and an author of every stripe. With the internet today people can even self-publish if they really want to.
 
A bit like a death and rebirth eh.
Considering the demography of Japan, the importance of neighbouring countries, ... It wouldn't be a surprise if there is a decline in Japan and a rise in other Asian countries.
 
The Technomancer said:
I have yet to encounter a slice of life show, for example, that I felt really made use of its medium (or, for that matter, held my attention for more than four episodes, but thats neither here nor there)
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Nichijou maybe by virtue of being Kyoani? Though I guess that's slice of life in the same way Cromartie High is. Same with Plastic Nee-san, which would be my second choice.
 
cosmicblizzard said:
Nichijou maybe by virtue of being Kyoani? Though I guess that's slice of life in the same way Cromartie High is. Same with Plastic Nee-san, which would be my second choice.
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Nichijou is actually on my depressingly large watch list, good point. The gifs I've seen make it seem like it has a really good sense of the timing of physical comedy, which yeah is one thing you can't quite do on the page
 
The Technomancer said:
I think anime absolutely works better when its based on original material. Like, I have a complicated opinion of Space Dandy, but its absolutely an example of something that works better as an anime than any manga adaption could be.
But a lot of anime that I see or skim is either trying to adapt a manga or at the very least feels like its restricting itself in the way that manga adaptions are restricted.I have yet to encounter a slice of life show, for example, that I felt really made use of its medium (or, for that matter, held my attention for more than four episodes, but thats neither here nor there)

I guess certain types of thriller work better also? I dunno, I'm trying to work Paranoia Agent into this somewhere because Kon is my reference point for really fucking good anime but I suspect that's more a reflection of his skill than it is anything inherent to the medium
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Unfortunately, a lot of of anime are made with the aim to "promote the manga or other related media" first and to be a strong product in its own right second. This can limit the time, money, other resources that get poured into it :( But even putting aside particular genres, there are still many stories I've enjoyed more in animated form because of what the things specific to animation (I already listed them above) bring to the table. I will agree though, for the reason I already mentioned, a lot of anime adaptations are probably better described as mediocre.

As for good, "Slice of Life" anime, Id suggest Barakamon. Its about a struggling calligraphy artist who moves to the countryside to seek inspiration and his interactions with the locals there. I thought it was a good time, maybe you'll feel the same too.

Finally, the loss of Kon was devastating for the art of animation the World over. You have people like Hosoda doing a good job of picking up the slack but damn was losing Kon a fucking tragedy. May he RIP ;_;
 
Crocodile said:
Finally, the loss of Kon was devastating for the art of animation the World over. You have people like Hosoda doing a good job of picking up the slack but damn was losing Kon a fucking tragedy. May he RIP ;_;
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Like, if I'm honest, Kon's work is a large part of why I'm...not really into the anime scene these days. I saw Paranoia Agent, Millennium Actress and Paprika within about a year and a half a while back, and they just blew my fucking mind when it came to what animated storytelling could be. Kon was that rare genius who both deeply understood animation and deeply understood cinema, and the latter is something that I feel the pronounced lack of these days.
His work was defined by his respect for anime as an artistic medium, a fundamental respect that feels shared maybe only by Miyazaki, and if there's someone out there in the anime world right now exhibiting that same respect and that same understanding of cinematic storytelling, well, I don't know who they are but I'd really fucking like to know. I'm just left wanting for something that hits me as an experience the way Paprika did the first time I saw it, much like Princess Mononoke before it

(looking up Hosada now I'm not honestly sure why I haven't seen his stuff because these titles definitely were on my radar and then...I guess life happened?)
 
A pop of the moe bubble may overall be a good thing. For every Kill la Kill there's a huge block of bland girl shows used to sell figures.
 
The Technomancer said:
Like, if I'm honest, Kon's work is a large part of why I'm...not really into the anime scene these days. I saw Paranoia Agent, Millennium Actress and Paprika within about a year and a half a while back, and they just blew my fucking mind when it came to what animated storytelling could be. Kon was that rare genius who both deeply understood animation and deeply understood cinema, and the latter is something that I feel the pronounced lack of these days.
His work was defined by his respect for anime as an artistic medium, a fundamental respect that feels shared maybe only by Miyazaki, and if there's someone out there in the anime world right now exhibiting that same respect and that same understanding of cinematic storytelling, well, I don't know who they are but I'd really fucking like to know. I'm just left wanting for something that hits me as an experience the way Paprika did the first time I saw it, much like Princess Mononoke before it

(looking up Hosada now I'm not honestly sure why I haven't seen his stuff because these titles definitely were on my radar and then...I guess life happened?)
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*strokes chin*

Have you seen the movie The Tale of Princess Kaguya (directed by Isao Takahata) or either season of the TV show Mushishi (directed by Hiroshi Nagahama)? Off the top of my head I have a strong feeling you will like those.
 
kiunchbb said:
With how much they are charging just for a few episodes for anime on Blu-ray, I am surprise it didn't die earlier than that. The industry just keep raising prices for the core fan-base that keep getting smaller until it consume itself.
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Streaming is traditionally a secondary service but it might help a bit especially if providers like netflix play more of a patron role for the producers rather than just buying the content rights for dirt cheap. The convenience of delivery and bundling with other content makes it more palatable for a general audience. It seems like anime is relatively popular on Netflix but perhaps that doesn't translate into enough dollars since the other revenue streams are doing so poorly. Due to genre like sci fi and fantasy being cheaper to make than live action it seems like there will be conditions for there to be a niche especially when other countries are only using animation for childrens movies and comedies.
 
Opto said:
A pop of the moe bubble may overall be a good thing. For every Kill la Kill there's a huge block of bland girl shows used to sell figures.
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I'd rather have a block of bland girl shows than Kill la Kill.

Still salty the rest of the series wasn't godlike as episodes 7/8.
 
Anime is not a Japanese art form. It's a idea planted by the Western invaders to poison the minds of youth and destroy the Japanese economy by attacking the male-female relations and hence reducing the birth rate. The real sad footnote to this story is that 5 to 20 years may be too late. This filth can't die soon enough.
 
hipbabboom said:
Anime is not a Japanese art form. It's a idea planted by the Western invaders to poison the minds of youth and destroy the Japanese economy by attacking the male-female relations and hence reducing the birth rate. The real sad footnote to this story is that 15 to 20 years may be too late. This filth can't die soon enough.
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hipbabboom
Huh? What did I say? Did I screw up again? :(

:P
 
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