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[Baraka in the White House]

93L is looking hot. Already circulation is evident with banding to the north and south. Also seems to be taking aim at the gulf. Heat content is RIDICULOUSLY high in the western caribbean and when this thing gets there it's gonna explode. Wind shear is pretty damn low. In fact it has all the excellent conditions to make our first storm, quite probably hurricane, and who knows if it attains Major status.

Hold me, bro. No homo.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Invest 93 track looks a little uncertain now. Weather Undgerground's graph is confused lol

 

[Dega]

Invest 93 track looks a little uncertain now. Weather Undgerground's graph is confused lol

lol

Yeah, that is a lot different from this morning.

Hold me, bro. No homo.

Perfect will hold you.

 

[Xeke]

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 200 PM EDT MON JUN 21 2010 FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO... 1. A LARGE AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA IS ASSOCIATED WITH A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE THAT IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ALTHOUGH THERE IS NO EVIDENCE OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION...THIS SYSTEM IS SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF ORGANIZATION AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WAVE COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS OVER PORTIONS OF NORTHERN VENEZUELA...THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES...PUERTO RICO...THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...AND HAITI OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. $$ FORECASTER BLAKE NNNN

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Yeah, 93 is unnerving. Just can't shake that feeling...

 

[perfectchaos007]

looks like it didn't hold together.

 

[Relix]

looks like it didn't hold together.

Which is very... very... impressive it didn't =P. It will move WSW soon I think, for a few hours at least.

 

[Dega]

It's still there and has some interesting tracks at the moment.

 

[Router]

Coming from the Southern Australian coast I never had to experience the threat of Hurricanes. The most dangerous thing here is the occasional Penguin :lol

I love weather though and my holiday 4 years ago chasing Hurricanes across America is just about the most fucking epic holiday I have ever had.

God damn I need to do it again. :lol

 

[Baraka in the White House]

looks like it didn't hold together.

'sa good thing, right? :/

 

[Smiles and Cries]

wait you guys are disappointed a storm did not get stronger? WTF?

 

[Hitokage]

wait you guys are disappointed a storm did not get stronger? WTF?

Hurricane season is weather porn.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Hurricane season is weather porn.

Damn straight! And for it to be porn we need to see someone get fucked! And that can't happen unless its a major hurricane with a huge gaping eye

 

[Relix]

Hurricane season is weather porn.

:lol :lol

I know a few mets and they go batshit crazy with the develpment of storms.

I love when a Hurricane forms. I know how hard it is. I know there is loss of life. But... it's something I can't explain. Really. It's something illogical and selfish. It's amazing.

If it were for me I would live in a lone island in the middle of the Caribbean to go through Hurricanes yearly.

93L has formed a COC SW of Jamaica so it seems it's getting its act together. My island is getting pounded... 3 tropical waves in the span of 6 days plus another one coming. Wow.

Coming from the Southern Australian coast I never had to experience the threat of Hurricanes. The most dangerous thing here is the occasional Penguin :lol

I love weather though and my holiday 4 years ago chasing Hurricanes across America is just about the most fucking epic holiday I have ever had.

God damn I need to do it again. :lol

Sir that is one kick ass holiday. Do it again!

 

[Relix]

WTNT21 KNGU 241500
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT 241430Z JUN 10//
RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 100NM
EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 16.5N 79.6W TO 17.7N 83.8W WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
2. A LOW PRESSURE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.5N 79.6W IS CURRENTLY MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT APPROXIMATELY 10 KTS. AT 24/1200Z INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED AN AREA OF CONVECTION THAT HAS PERSISTED
FOR THE PAST 12 HOURS. THIS SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY MOVING INTO AN AREA OF
RELATIVELY LOWER WIND SHEAR, UPPER LEVEL ANTI-CYCLONIC OUTFLOW AND IS
TRACKING TOWARDS WARMER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 83 TO 86 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT, HELPING TO ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF THIS TROPICAL FEATURE.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO A WARNING OR ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
BY 251500Z JUN 2010.//

Here. We. Go.

THCPs are off the chart for that region and June

 

[Xeke]

Yeah it looks to be getting its act together.

wait you guys are disappointed a storm did not get stronger? WTF?

They are just really interesting to watch. I dunno.

 

[perfectchaos007]

40% chance of development now. Someone post the new spaghetti graph for this system

 

[Xeke]

60% now

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU JUN 24 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS AND SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE BROAD
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED BETWEEN THE EASTERN TIP OF HONDURAS
AND JAMAICA HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED THIS EVENING. SURFACE
PRESSURES HAVE BEEN FALLING IN THE AREA AND THERE HAS BEEN AN
INCREASE IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY
BECOMING MORE CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND THE SYSTEM COULD BECOME
A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BEFORE IT REACHES THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BLAKE
NNNN

 

[perfectchaos007]

Lookin sexy. But the spaghetti models fan out so far who knows where it goes after it passes through the Mexican penensula ( if it holds together )

 

[Dega]

Lookin sexy. But the spaghetti models fan out so far who knows where it goes after it passes through the Mexican penensula ( if it holds together )

Yeah, its looking stronger this morning too. It would be weird if our first storm headed straight for the oil spill.

Edit: Just noticed the other one but its kinda weak right now.

 

[Teknoman]

Talking about it on CNN.

 

[Relix]

70% chance of development. Hurricane Hunters already inside the system. This is a TD but they are waiting to get readings on pressures and wind speed for the models. Should be issuing advisories soon so in a few hours we will get the first TD of the season.

94L also formed but it's a fish storm.

 

[perfectchaos007]

70% chance of development. Hurricane Hunters already inside the system. This is a TD but they are waiting to get readings on pressures and wind speed for the models. Should be issuing advisories soon so in a few hours we will get the first TD of the season.

94L also formed but it's a fish storm.

80% now!

And yeah my rule of thumb for storms is that if they form north of puerto rico in the Atlantic, they will take the north atlantic current and circle harmlessly or die out. Thats definitely what 94L will do

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Wow, what a spread. Come on, models...

 

[Relix]

Wow, what a spread. Come on, models...

It all depends on the strength of the system

 

[Relix]

000
URNT15 KNHC 252105
AF302 01AAA INVEST HDOB 39 20100625
205530 1628N 08359W 9782 00238 0051 +242 +180 323018 018 019 007 00
205600 1626N 08359W 9779 00241 0052 +240 +180 320017 018 024 008 00
205630 1625N 08359W 9782 00237 0051 +245 +180 315017 017 015 001 00
205700 1623N 08359W 9780 00240 0051 +246 +180 309018 018 013 001 00
205730 1621N 08359W 9781 00239 0051 +248 +180 307017 018 012 001 00
205800 1620N 08359W 9778 00242 0052 +250 +180 303016 017 007 001 00
205830 1618N 08359W 9781 00240 0053 +251 +180 300015 016 002 000 03
205900 1617N 08359W 9782 00240 0053 +252 +180 301016 016 004 000 00
205930 1615N 08359W 9778 00245 0055 +241 +180 288014 016 017 003 00
210000 1613N 08359W 9786 00235 0055 +239 +180 279017 020 020 005 00
210030 1612N 08359W 9774 00247 0056 +226 +180 275023 025 032 003 00
210100 1610N 08400W 9784 00237 0055 +224 +180 270022 023 036 009 00
210130 1609N 08400W 9777 00245 0057 +215 +180 272023 023 041 016 00
210200 1607N 08400W 9781 00241 0058 +210 +180 267022 024 038 015 00
210230 1606N 08400W 9781 00242 0058 +220 +180 256020 020 028 010 00
210300 1604N 08400W 9785 00239 0058 +221 +180 257016 019 025 007 00
210330 1603N 08400W 9781 00243 0059 +215 +180 253012 012 027 007 00
210400 1601N 08400W 9780 00245 0061 +203 +180 274011 011 036 013 00
210430 1600N 08400W 9779 00247 0061 +221 +180 290011 012 038 025 03
210500 1558N 08400W 9780 00248 0063 +204 +180 291017 018 043 022 03
$$



West winds found. It definitely has a closed circulation. Pressure at 1004MB, can sustain a 55MPH+ TS so as soon as the circulation grows more perfect the rest of the system will catch up with the pressure. We could be seeing a 60MPH storm by tomorrow at 5PM. Gulf coast needs to watch this, the stronger it gets the more probably it will pass over the oil which will be a major bitch

AKA: 93L is really a depression at the moment and could very well be a Tropical Storm. We will have our first named system in the next 6 hours or so.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Great analysis Relix. So basically the models that see this storm strengthening send the system north toward Louisiana while the models that don't see it strengthening send it to Vera Cruz Mexico? Thats weird how strenght of a storm could steer it one direction

 

[Relix]

Great analysis Relix. So basically the models that see this storm strengthening send the system north toward Louisiana while the models that don't see it strengthening send it to Vera Cruz Mexico? Thats weird how strenght of a storm could steer it one direction

Yeah, the "Deeper" the system the more pressure it feels from ridges, throughs, steering layers etc. Which is why weaker storms usually go west and stronger ones feel the effect of throughs to the north etc and go in a more notherly course (of course, unless there is a high pressure above it which stops northern movement).


These steering layers,http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSTEERATL_12z/comploop.html , will help you. See they read Shallow, Middle, Deep and have a pressure "legend" in the bottom left. If there's a low pressure around or in that pressure gradient then the system will move as the steering layers are. These usually change every 6 hours though if you click animate you will see the steering forecast, weakness in ridges, etc. Maybe I should write a post detailing how this works :lol (TD1 falls under Shallow and probably Middle in the next days)

In bigger news the NAVY reports we have 01L Aka... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01. NHC will report it soon
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren
FSTDA

169N, 829W, 30, 1005

 

[perfectchaos007]

Yeah, the "Deeper" the system the more pressure it feels from ridges, throughs, steering layers etc. Which is why weaker storms usually go west and stronger ones feel the effect of throughs to the north etc and go in a more notherly course (of course, unless there is a high pressure above it which stops northern movement).


These steering layers,http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSTEERATL_12z/comploop.html , will help you. See they read Shallow, Middle, Deep and have a pressure "legend" in the bottom left. If there's a low pressure around or in that pressure gradient then the system will move as the steering layers are. These usually change every 6 hours though if you click animate you will see the steering forecast, weakness in ridges, etc. Maybe I should write a post detailing how this works :lol

In bigger news the NAVY reports we have 01L Aka... TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01. NHC will report it soon
BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren
FSTDA

169N, 829W, 30, 1005

hell yes please! I want to learn!

 

[Relix]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 01 DETAILS (will update post as we go =P)
WARNING: THESE IMAGES WILL AUTO-UPDATE THEMSELVES EVERY 15 MINUTES. YOU WILL BE SEEING THE MOST UP TO DATE PICTURE AT ALL TIMES. AFTER THE DEPRESSION IS OVER THE FLOATER IS TAKEN OFF AND PICTURES WILL LOOK EMPTY. SO IF YOU WANT REFERENCES AND FOR HISTORY... SAVE THE PICTURES AND UPLOAD THEM SOMEWHERE

OFFICIAL NHC FORECAST

Satellite

TD/01L/A
MARK
(pic auto-updates)

(models)

Steering Layers at the moment:

 

[Relix]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 252159
TCPAT1
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
600 PM EDT FRI JUN 25 2010

...FIRST TROPICAL DEPRESSION OF THE ATLANTIC SEASON FORMS IN THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM ESE OF CHETUMAL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE
EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL NORTHWARD TO
CANCUN

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 600 PM EDT...2200 UTC...THE CENTER OF NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE
83.5 WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR
10 MPH...17 KM/HR. THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE DEPRESSION
WILL REACH THE YUCATAN PENINSULA BY LATE SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND THE DEPRESSION IS
EXPECTED TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE COAST
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

RAINFALL...THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...EASTERN
GUATEMALA...AND MUCH OF HONDURAS AND BELIZE THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 15 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINOUS
AREAS. THERE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND
MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA/BRENNAN

-----------------------------
NHC Track

 

[perfectchaos007]

It's a depression! next step, Alex!

 

[Relix]

It's a depression! next step, Alex!

In my opinion its Alex already. Recon found TS winds. As I said.. in the next hours it will probably be declared TS.

Also, if no one had noticed... I am pretty much a weather freak :lol

 

[Vyer]

Fuck

 

[Dega]

That current NHC track has it coming straight towards perfect and I. :lol There is still lot's of time for things to change though (duh).

Thanks for the updates Relix.

 

[perfectchaos007]

That current NHC track has it coming straight towards perfect and I. :lol There is still lot's of time for things to change though (duh).

Thanks for the updates Relix.

Track is looking very southern now. I guess the reason could be that they don't think it will be stronger than a Tropical Storm.

 

[Dega]

Yeah, I saw that earlier but was too lazy to edit my post. We'll see what happens! Hey where do you live anyway? So I can.. umm .. check if your stuff is okay after a storm hits?

lol jk

 

[perfectchaos007]

Yeah, I saw that earlier but was too lazy to edit my post. We'll see what happens! Hey where do you live anyway? So I can.. umm .. check if your stuff is okay after a storm hits?

lol jk

Close enough to walk to Red Top on Circle Way! Anyways the storm looks pretty healthy on the sattelite, I'm surprised it hasn't strengthened over the last 6 hours.

 

[Relix]

Well it's been moving West at... 1MPH or some shit like that for some time now :lol . No clue what's going on, though the system pressure went up a bit so you could say it sightly weakened even though the system is surrounded by tropical storm winds. It moved SE as well, no clue why. Center may be relocating internally, since HH reported tropical storm winds 130 miles away from the center so something is going on that we can't clearly see. The Hurricane Hunters are still inside. My guess is that it relocated to the NE under a blob of heavy convection so we could see the track shift back right towards Texas again. Or who the fuck knows.

Stupid systems never do what they are supposed to do :lol

 

[arstal]

Great analysis Relix. So basically the models that see this storm strengthening send the system north toward Louisiana while the models that don't see it strengthening send it to Vera Cruz Mexico? Thats weird how strenght of a storm could steer it one direction

One of the rules of cyclogenesis is that stronger storms tend to move slower then quicker ones, in general. So a stronger storm may get steered less, and a change in direction might affect the track differently. It's not illogical.

<--- former weather forecaster in the AF. We didn't do tropical stuff due to regs (regs said parrot the NHC even when it's wrong), but we learned stuff.

 

[Srsly]

In my opinion its Alex already. Recon found TS winds. As I said.. in the next hours it will probably be declared TS.

Also, if no one had noticed... I am pretty much a weather freak :lol

Do you post on any weather message boards?

 

[perfectchaos007]

One of the rules of cyclogenesis is that stronger storms tend to move slower then quicker ones, in general. So a stronger storm may get steered less, and a change in direction might affect the track differently. It's not illogical.

<--- former weather forecaster in the AF. We didn't do tropical stuff due to regs (regs said parrot the NHC even when it's wrong), but we learned stuff.

badass dude another weather forecaster. Relix may as well be one too. He just doesn't have his degree because he hated the physics class requirements lol. Do you have a meteorology degree? where did you get it? Only 2 Universities in Texas offers a meteorology program and the one I attend does not

 

[arstal]

badass dude another weather forecaster. Relix may as well be one too. He just doesn't have his degree because he hated the physics class requirements lol. Do you have a meteorology degree? where did you get it? Only 2 Universities in Texas offers a meteorology program and the one I attend does not

I enlisted after 9/11 figuring I was going to learn a foreign language, but ended up becoming a forecaster instead. Did my 4 years, got out (loved the job, hated the lifestyle)- now working as a civilian observer.

If you're going for the Met degree, you're going to not earn much for a while, unless you can become an officer. Best bet would be enlist, get a taste of it for 3-4 years, then decide- and if you don't like it- you got your schooling paid for. Forecasters don't get deployed during their first term unless something weird happens.

 

[syllogism]

It's Alex now, finally

TROPICAL STORM ALEX ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
500 AM EDT SAT JUN 26 2010

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE BECOMES TROPICAL STORM ALEX...MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD BELIZE AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER INVESTIGATING TROPICAL
DEPRESSION ONE REPORTED 925 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF 46 KT ABOUT 90
NM EAST OF THE CENTER...WHICH SUGGEST SURFACE WINDS OF NEAR 35 KT.
THE STEPPED FREQUENCY MICROWAVE RADIOMETER ON THE AIRCRAFT SHOWED A
LARGE AREA OF WINDS NEAR 35 KT THAT DID NOT APPEAR TO BE RAIN-
CONTAMINATED. BASED ON THIS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO
TROPICAL STORM ALEX WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT. THE
AIRCRAFT DATA SUGGESTS THAT THE CIRCULATION OF ALEX REMAINS
BROAD...AND THAT THE RECENTLY REPORTED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB
MAY HAVE BEEN MEASURED IN A MESOSCALE LOW PRESSURE AREA. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT THE AIRCRAFT REPORTED SFMR WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 KT
WHICH APPEAR SUSPECT DUE TO RAIN CONTAMINATION.

THE INITIAL MOTION REMAINS UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF
285/7. FOR THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS ALEX IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL
RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN UNITED STATES. AFTER THAT...THE
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THE RIDGE TO WEAKEN AS A DEEP-LAYER
TROUGH MOVES INTO THE EASTERN U. S. THERE REMAINS A SIGNIFICANT
SPREAD IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE ON HOW THIS EVOLUTION WILL AFFECT
ALEX. THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN...AND THE GFDL SHOW ENOUGH OF A
BREAK IN THE RIDGE TO STEER ALEX NORTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHWESTERN
GULF COAST. THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...AND UKMET SHOW THE RIDGE REMAINING
STRONG ENOUGH TO STEER ALEX GENERALLY WESTWARD INTO NORTHEASTERN
MEXICO. THE HWRF AND THE CANADIAN MODELS ARE BETWEEN THESE
EXTREMES. OVERALL...THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE HAS SHIFTED WESTWARD
SINCE THE LAST ADVISORY...SO THE NEW FORECAST TRACK WILL BE NUDGED
WESTWARD AS WELL. HOWEVER...THE NEW TRACK IS STILL A LITTLE TO THE
RIGHT OF THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS. IT IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE HWRF.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE NEAR OR UNDER A LARGE
UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHICH SHOULD
CAUSE AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS A RESULT...
ALEX IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AS LONG AS IT REMAINS OVER WATER.
THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A 50 KT INTENSITY AS THE
CENTER REACHES THE COAST OF BELIZE OR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING OVER LAND. THE GFDL...SHIPS...AND LGEM
MODELS FORECAST ALEX TO BE A HURRICANE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL NOT YET DO THAT...BUT WILL CALL FOR
MORE STRENGTHENING OVER THE GULF THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 26/0900Z 16.9N 84.9W 35 KT
12HR VT 26/1800Z 17.4N 86.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 27/0600Z 18.4N 88.0W 50 KT
36HR VT 27/1800Z 19.4N 89.5W 35 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 28/0600Z 20.5N 90.5W 30 KT...OVER WATER
72HR VT 29/0600Z 22.5N 92.5W 35 KT
96HR VT 30/0600Z 24.0N 94.0W 45 KT
120HR VT 01/0600Z 24.5N 95.5W 60 KT

 

[perfectchaos007]

Yay Alex! first named storm of this supposed LONG hurricane season!

 

[Smiles and Cries]

what the fuck are you guys cheering about :lol

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/26/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T1

this is some real scary shit

 

[DrM]

This thread need more Scorpions

Ok, more serious question: how many hurricanes appear in average every year?

 

[Stormwatch]

How did I miss this thread? Hello Alex! Hopefully it doesn't cause too much damage or mess up the BP cleanup operation.

 

[Relix]

what the fuck are you guys cheering about :lol

http://www.cnn.com/2010/US/06/26/gulf.oil.disaster/index.html?hpt=T1

this is some real scary shit

Remember.. it's weather porn to us :lol

Do you post on any weather message boards?

Wunderground and a local forum.

One of the rules of cyclogenesis is that stronger storms tend to move slower then quicker ones, in general. So a stronger storm may get steered less, and a change in direction might affect the track differently. It's not illogical.

<--- former weather forecaster in the AF. We didn't do tropical stuff due to regs (regs said parrot the NHC even when it's wrong), but we learned stuff.

Cool =O

 

[perfectchaos007]

the track keeps going more and more south. Probably because the storm has yet to show signs of turning north

edit: looks like it has made landfall now. Lets see how much it weakens over the Yucatan.

edit 2: man I almost want to double post because it has been 12 hours since I posted, but the 4am track sends it a little more north. I guess since the storm finally started to make a northernly turn, the forecasted tracks shifted accordingly

edit 3: Now the GFS ( the most reliable individual model (the NHC is just an average of multiple models)) is showing the system taking a north turn when it re-enters the gulf and toward Texas! WTF? I'm going to bed. See you peeps in the morning/day