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5 AM discussion is pretty interesting

WTNT41 KNHC 270857
TCDAT1
TROPICAL STORM ALEX DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL012010
400 AM CDT SUN JUN 27 2010

RATHER THAN BECOMING DISORGANIZED AFTER MOVING INLAND...RADAR AND
SATELLITE DATA INDICATE THAT ALEX HAS ACTUALLY BECOME MUCH BETTER
DEFINED. AN EYE FEATURE HAS BEEN NOTED IN BELIZE RADAR DATA AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CLOUD TOPS HAVE COOLED
SIGNIFICANTLY WITH A NEARLY CLOSED RING OF -80C AND COLDER TOPS
ENCIRCLING THE RADAR CENTER. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN
REMAINS IMPRESSIVE AND ADDITIONAL CONVECTIVE BANDING FEATURES HAVE
DEVELOPED IN ALL QUADRANTS. THE RADAR AND SATELLITE DEPICTIONS OF
ALEX LOOKS MORE LIKE A HURRICANE THAN A LOW-END TROPICAL STORM.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/10. THE SHORT TERM MOTION IS THE ONLY
THING STRAIGHT-FORWARD ABOUT THE FORECAST TRACK. ALL OF THE MODELS
AGREE ON AN UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY JUST EAST OF HUDSON BAY
CANADA TO DIG SOUTHWARD AND CARVE OUT A DEEP TROUGH OVER MUCH OF
THE EASTERN U.S. DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. AS THE TROUGH AMPLIFIES
...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CURRENTLY SITUATED ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO ERODES IN THE 36-72 HOUR TIME FRAME LEAVING
A LARGE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN GULF.
THIS WEAK FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CAUSE ALEX TO SLOW DOWN AND
ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO GAIN SOME LATITUDE. AFTER THAT...HOWEVER...THE
MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE GFS AND CANADIAN MODELS
TAKING ALEX NORTHWARD THROUGH THE WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE TO THE
TEXAS-LOUISIANA BORDER AREA...WHEREAS THE ECMWF...NOGAPS...GFDL...
HWRF...UKMET...AND GFS-PARALLEL MODELS MOVE ALEX WESTWARD INTO
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO. THE MAIN DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS IS HOW THEY
HANDLE THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH-RIDGE PATTERN. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS ARE MORE PROGRESSIVE AND LESS AMPLIFIED WITH THE FLOW
PATTERN ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...
WHEREAS THE OTHER MODELS PRODUCE A STRONGER...MORE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED
...AND SLOWER PATTERN. THE CURRENT PROGRESSIVE 5-WAVE NORTHERN
HEMISPHERIC FLOW PATTERN WOULD TEND TO FAVOR THE THE GFS-CANADIAN
SOLUTION...BUT AT LEAST ONE MORE MODEL CYCLE WILL BE REQUIRED TO
CONFIRM THAT TREND. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS TO THE RIGHT OF
AND SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS SIMILAR TO THE
CONSENSUS MODEL...TVCN. NOTE...IF THE RECENT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE
MODELS CONTINUES...THEN ALEX COULD REMAIN OVER WATER FOR THE NEXT 5
DAYS RESULTING IN A VERY POWERFUL HURRICANE.

BASED ON THE MUCH IMPROVED STRUCTURE OF ALEX WHILE IT IS HAS BEEN
OVER LAND...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD FROM
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. WITH VERTICAL SHEAR FORECAST TO BE 5 KT OR
LESS DURING MOST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SSTS OF 28C AND WARMER
EXPECTED ALONG THE TRACK...THERE IS AT LEAST A MODERATE LIKELIHOOD
THAT ALEX COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS NEARLY IDENTICAL TO THE SHIPS AND DECAY-SHIPS INTENSITY
MODELS...AND HIGHER THAN BOTH THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0900Z 18.3N 89.4W 35 KT
12HR VT 27/1800Z 19.1N 90.6W 30 KT...INLAND
24HR VT 28/0600Z 20.2N 91.9W 40 KT...OVER WATER
36HR VT 28/1800Z 20.9N 92.8W 55 KT
48HR VT 29/0600Z 21.5N 93.6W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/0600Z 22.6N 95.5W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/0600Z 23.2N 97.4W 85 KT
120HR VT 02/0600Z 23.5N 99.7W 30 KT...INLAND

 

[Dega]

Well, this is getting interesting.

 

[Xeke]

Daaaamn.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Aw hell naw. NOAA still thinks it'll hang a left at Mexico, though...

 

[Relix]

Interesting system

 

[perfectchaos007]

Interesting system

yeah even last night at 4am I was looking at all the GFS models. (There are like 20 of them) and they all sent the storm to East Texas/West Louisiana. And the other models sent it to Mexico. There must be some pressure or trough that the models don't know how the storm will respond to

edit1: I hate how when a Tropical storm is downgraded they only update the system every 6 hours instead of every 3. BTW the GFS models still send it to Houston/Galveston

edit2: its getting reorganized fast. I can already see a center of circulation

 

[Dega]

So, can someone explain to me what the Ensemble Models are? Is the GFS an average of all those models?

 

[Xeke]

So, can someone explain to me what the Ensemble Models are? Is the GFS an average of all those models?

Ensemble models just shows all of them at once, GFS is just one of the models.

 

[Dega]

Ensemble models just shows all of them at once, GFS is just one of the models.

The computer models image and ensemble models image don't have the same models though. So, I'm kind of confused how they show all of them at once like you say.

 

[Xeke]

The computer models image and ensemble models image don't have the same models though. So, I'm kind of confused how they show all of them at once like you say.

Well from those images it looks like the Ensemble is just various different outcomes that the GFS model is predicting, while the GFS is just one of the models on the spaghetti map.

The GFS is the red on the spaghetti and it matches the white average on the ensemble GFS map. I imagine the same could be done for all of them.

 

[perfectchaos007]

It's back to a tropical storm. and STILL the GFS models ( which I thought were the most accurate ) sends it to the Galveston area, but the NHC doesn't predict landfall north of the Texas/Mexico border :/

Well from those images it looks like the Ensemble is just various different outcomes that the GFS model is predicting, while the GFS is just one of the models on the spaghetti map.

The GFS is the red on the spaghetti and it matches the white average on the ensemble GFS map. I imagine the same could be done for all of them.

Actually the GFS takes an average of all other GFS models. Theres the GFSI, GEMN, and GP1-20. Then the GFS takes an average of all those models.
You can play with them all on hamweather

http://tropics.hamweather.com/2010/atlantic/alex/modelsmap_zoom1.html

click "show full model listing"

 

[Xeke]

It's back to a tropical storm. and STILL the GFS models ( which I thought were the most accurate ) sends it to the Galveston area, but the NHC doesn't predict landfall north of the Texas/Mexico border :/

Actually the GFS takes an average of all other GFS models. Theres the GFSI, GEMN, and GP1-20. Then the GFS takes an average of all those models.
You can play with them all on hamweather

http://tropics.hamweather.com/2010/atlantic/alex/modelsmap_zoom1.html

click "show full model listing"

Well you kicked my ass on the topic. :lol I've never paid much attention to the models since most of them seem to always be wrong

 

[perfectchaos007]

Ahh and I <3 Frank Billingsly. He just explained why the GFS is pulling the system toward Texas while other models aren't. Theres a high pressure currently north of Texas right now and most models are thinking that high pressure will drop down and push the storm down toward Mexico while the GFS is thinking the high pressure will slide south east toward florida and allow the storm to trek north toward Galveston. Interesting.

And if it takes that track, hello Major hurricane! Even still, the NHC is predicting a Cat 2 hurricane now. OH LAWD!

 

[Xeke]

Ahh and I <3 Frank Billingsly. He just explained why the GFS is pulling the system toward Texas while other models aren't. Theres a high pressure currently north of Texas right now and most models are thinking that high pressure will drop down and push the storm down toward Mexico while the GFS is thinking the high pressure will slide south east toward florida and allow the storm to trek north toward Galveston. Interesting.

Well there you go.

 

[kkaabboomm]

alright hurricane-fascinated-GAF, question. my research shows the BVI's rarely get hit by hurricanes in august. what are the odds this august they'll get hit?

 

[ruffles]

Fuuuuu! Stay away from Houston. :/

 

[Relix]

alright hurricane-fascinated-GAF, question. my research shows the BVI's rarely get hit by hurricanes in august. what are the odds this august they'll get hit?

Highest in a long time. Trust me. All points out that the antilles and caribbean will get some direct hits this year. The powerful waves and Bermuda Pressure sitting in place point to it.

Anyway, GFS is the exact model at the moment. NHC doesn't want to change the track because of normal media issues, etc, but it will slowly shift. Then again weather is fucking crazy. If it takes aim at Texas expect a Cat 2 at least.

Strong wave off Africa too. Has cyclonic turning.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Highest in a long time. Trust me. All points out that the antilles and caribbean will get some direct hits this year. The powerful waves and Bermuda Pressure sitting in place point to it.

Anyway, GFS is the exact model at the moment. NHC doesn't want to change the track because of normal media issues, etc, but it will slowly shift. Then again weather is fucking crazy. If it takes aim at Texas expect a Cat 2 at least.

Strong wave off Africa too. Has cyclonic turning.

the fuck? Are they waiting for a prime time television event sponsored by Pepsi to reveal this hurricane is headed straight toward the 4th largest city in America???

 

[Relix]

the fuck? Are they waiting for a prime time television event sponsored by Pepsi to reveal this hurricane is headed straight toward the 4th largest city in America???

http://startupblog.files.wordpress.com/2007/06/popcorn.jpg[/QUOTE]

The NHC is usually very conservative about track shifts. They do it gradually. Just to avoid media panic. And they are the pros, models are prone to failing, so if they feel it's not gonna hit Texas well then. In my totally non-professional opinion it seems like a Texas event, AT LEAST, a south Texas event even if it makes landfall first in the northern part of Mexico.

I posted this site but...

[url]http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/COMPSTEERATL_12z/comploop.html[/url]

Steering layers. Each row is a different model, in all you can see Alex. Our system is shallow, maybe on the way to middle, but mostly steered at shallow levels. You can see why the GFS thinks it will hit Texas there. The CMC model is even more drastic with this shift.

 

[perfectchaos007]

The NHC is usually very conservative about track shifts. They do it gradually. Just to avoid media panic. And they are the pros, models are prone to failing, so if they feel it's not gonna hit Texas well then. In my totally non-professional opinion it seems like a Texas event, AT LEAST, a south Texas event even if it makes landfall first in the northern part of Mexico.

Well to be fair the cone of uncertainty by the NHC is warrented because really its only the GFS and the CMC that take the system north while the other models take it into central Mexico. So since most of the models take it to Mexico, they are banking on that. However the GFS is usually the most reliable of the individual models which creates an interesting decision by the NHC to decide to go with the majority, or the most reliable :lol

edit: relix how do you use that site? Do you move the pointer from F-12 to F-144 to make the waves move flip-book style? If so, then those wind models send it straight toward houston:lol

At least the deep layer model on the top left sends it to houston. the second sends it to mexico, the third to louisiana. ffffuuu

 

[Teknoman]

Fuuuuu! Stay away from Houston. :/

Seconded.

 

[ZROCOOL]

Seconded.

Third

 

[Relix]

Well to be fair the cone of uncertainty by the NHC is warrented because really its only the GFS and the CMC that take the system north while the other models take it into central Mexico. So since most of the models take it to Mexico, they are banking on that. However the GFS is usually the most reliable of the individual models which creates an interesting decision by the NHC to decide to go with the majority, or the most reliable :lol

edit: relix how do you use that site? Do you move the pointer from F-12 to F-144 to make the waves move flip-book style? If so, then those wind models send it straight toward houston:lol

At least the deep layer model on the top left sends it to houston. the second sends it to mexico, the third to louisiana. ffffuuu

F## means the ## is X hours from now and that model run. =p. You can also click Animate Map on the top. Left row is GFS while the right one is CMC models. The systenm is shallow-mid so look more on those specific runs. Deep would be a Cat 4 plus system

 

[jamesinclair]

Go north young alex, go north!

Spoiler

USA should handle hurricanes better than mexico

 

[perfectchaos007]

Go north young alex, go north!

Spoiler

USA should handle hurricanes better than mexico

I have a friend who lives in Beaumont and 2 days ago she flew to Vera Cruz to sail back to Beaumont/Port Arthur. I told her there was a storm brewing and it would probably go in their path. Then yesterday of course they decide to wait it out in Vera Cruz. So basically she flew to Mexico to be stranded. I tried to warn her. She should have watched the weather....

F## means the ## is X hours from now and that model run. =p. You can also click Animate Map on the top. Left row is GFS while the right one is CMC models. The systenm is shallow-mid so look more on those specific runs. Deep would be a Cat 4 plus system

Thanks! btw whats the middle column? NHC? NOGAPS? UKMET?

edit1: I'm noticing more and more models say the storm will eventually take a northern turn, the only difference is when the models say the storm will turn north. GFS says it will go north....like now while BAMM takes it straight north just before landfall in Mexico, and sends it to Texas :lol

edit2: and is it just me or has the storm not moved in 6 hours? Maybe it is about to make the northern turn?

edit3: okay the last couple hours it has really looked like its starting to turn north. TIME TO NOT PANIC!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

 

[Teknoman]

But in all seriousness, if it HAS to hit near the Texas/Louisiana area, I really hope it stays low cat.

 

[Agentnibs]

Well damn, some of those models point it right at me. I live in corpus christi, this town won't survive through a hurricane. A severe storm a couple of weeks ago damn near brought the city to it's knees! :lol

However I'm convinced this town has a magical force field from god or something because tropical based storms never hit here. It always shoots north at the last second not even giving us some rain lol

 

[perfectchaos007]

Well damn, some of those models point it right at me. I live in corpus christi, this town won't survive through a hurricane. A severe storm a couple of weeks ago damn near brought the city to it's knees! :lol

However I'm convinced this town has a magical force field from god or something because tropical based storms never hit here. It always shoots north at the last second not even giving us some rain lol

Yep, The GFS hates corpus right now. half of their models send it to you. But yeah a big storm hasn't hit Corpus in quite some time. I remember for a while IKE was supposed to hit you guys, then it went to Galveston. And then at one point even Rita was supposed to hit you guys, then as we all know it ended up well north of you guys to the Louisiana/Texas Border. I hate to say it, but Corpus is just overdue for a strong storm.

Man it has been forever since I have been there. Yall did have one badass Holiday Inn. And I think that picture is doctored a bit. No way can those little blue letters on Chase Bank cast that entire blue streak on the water.

 

[Agentnibs]

Haha yeah maybe a little. The city is pretty nice looking at night though.

Anywhoo updated models are pointing a fair bit south now but we got some rain from the storm today apparently so who knows. The neato part is that my name is Alex; it's coming for me!

 

[Evlar]

Per the 1 pm advisory, it's tracking south of Corpus Christi to within a few miles of the border. Looks like it has a shot at Cat 2.

 

[Smiles and Cries]

its going to Mexico

 

[Baraka in the White House]

I don't know; like Relix suggested, that track has been gradually shifting north since last night.

 

[Agentnibs]

I agree, it's pointing closer now to the border, and tracks have been shifting it north more and more each update. I would say there's an ever increasing chance that we're looking at a U.S landfall.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Well the GFS now sends it more in line with the NHC track just south of the border. IDK, I'm thinking landfall will still be between Brownsville and Corpus.

 

[Dega]

Well the GFS now sends it more in line with the NHC track just south of the border. IDK, I'm thinking landfall will still be between Brownsville and Corpus.

I'm thinking the same thing.

 

[thenight11]

dont hit the rio grande valley..please dont :/ (lives in the rgv)

 

[Relix]

Well the GFS now sends it more in line with the NHC track just south of the border. IDK, I'm thinking landfall will still be between Brownsville and Corpus.

I think it will probably go into Mexico first and then Texas from the border. Still, the system is stationary right now. When it starts a real movement is when we can determine a more exact track.

 

[Angry Grimace]

I have to admit, reading this thread every morning during my honeymoon in St. Lucia and walking out to mostly clear skies every day was kind of amusing.

That said, we all knew a real one would eventually form, but let's hope for some more magic-storm dispersion like we had all June.

 

[Relix]

Dry air is affecting the north part of Alex. That through is surely causing some light shear on the storm as well.

MIMIC Movement:

You can see it moving nearly N for a few frames there

 

[perfectchaos007]

Wow the 4pm update came really early. And as expected, the track moved back south a bit.

 

[Garcia]

Wow ! Great thread guys ! Extremely informative and concise. Subscribed =D

I love hurricanes and tornadoes as well. There's just something sexy about devilish winds, I don't know what it is <3

 

[Baraka in the White House]

They're fucking terrifying.

 

[Relix]

Wow the 4pm update came really early. And as expected, the track moved back south a bit.

Model guidance ;-). I still expect the Mexico first and a few hours later Texas border hit so yeah =P

 

[perfectchaos007]

Model guidance ;-). I still expect the Mexico first and a few hours later Texas border hit so yeah =P

lol yeah of course, its so easy. you look at the models and how they shift and the NHC follows suit with their model. Por Supuesto!

edit: And I'm trying my hardest to find a center of circulation, but it's really tough right now. It's getting stronger wind speed wise, but looking less organized. What's it doing Relix?

 

[Relix]

lol yeah of course, its so easy. you look at the models and how they shift and the NHC follows suit with their model. Por Supuesto!

edit: And I'm trying my hardest to find a center of circulation, but it's really tough right now. It's getting stronger wind speed wise, but looking less organized. What's it doing Relix?

Except for the NW quadrant (dry air and light shear) it's looking quite organized. You can see the center of circulation, it was a bit void of convection but it's filling back up.

 

[perfectchaos007]

Except for the NW quadrant (dry air and light shear) it's looking quite organized. You can see the center of circulation, it was a bit void of convection but it's filling back up.

I guess the infrared sattelites I'm looking at it's hard to tell. Are you looking at a visible sattlite anywhere? I'd like to look at that before sunset if you know of a good one.

edit: what the hell. The storm has started going east now. What the hell?

 

[Xeke]

I guess the infrared sattelites I'm looking at it's hard to tell. Are you looking at a visible sattlite anywhere? I'd like to look at that before sunset if you know of a good one.

edit: what the hell. The storm has started going east now. What the hell?

Yeah it has stalled and looks like it made a slight turn to the east.

 

[Dega]

Yeah it has stalled and looks like it made a slight turn to the east.

He noticed the oil spill and thought he would go fuck things up.

 

[Baraka in the White House]

Nature is trolling us.

 

[Relix]

That east shift will fuck up all forecasts. Now I am expecting a direct Texas hit. It's a battle between ridges and through, models can't replicate the exact tiny details that go into there, especially with weak steering like this.

EDIT: Found this in WU:

If a storm has a 1000MB pressure it's barely 100m over land.

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/goescolor/goeseast/hurricane2/color_lrg/latest.jpg

It's huge. (pic too big)