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[The Lunch Legend]

I hope so

 

[Chromata]

And you think that games without second hand market will suddenly become cheaper?

Second hand market doesn't influence the game price AFAIK since developers don't get any of the proceeds.

The point is that game pass appeals to a large audience so you have a consistent stream of revenue which allows you to allocate the funds more readily into big and small projects. Subscription services bring a lot of money in through sheer volume which allows these companies to regularly pump out so much original content.

There's a larger risk inherent with physical sales because the price has to cover the production cost with the understanding that it's an all or nothing decision from the customer (pay $70 or no game) so risk assessments must be made.

 

[Bryank75]

Second hand market doesn't influence the game price AFAIK since developers don't get any of the proceeds.

The point is that game pass appeals to a large audience so you have a consistent stream of revenue which allows you to allocate the funds more readily into big and small projects. Subscription services bring a lot of money in through sheer volume which allows these companies to regularly pump out so much original content.

There's a larger risk inherent with physical sales because the price has to cover the production cost with the understanding that it's an all or nothing decision from the customer (pay $70 or no game) so risk assessments must be made.

You have absolutely no understanding of the economics...

Sheer volume? How does a very cheap subscription 1 dollar on offer or maximum 10 dollars per month compensate for a loss of 1-2 game sales on average per month per customer that moves from physical or digital full price to streaming????

Simple fact is that it doesn't, streaming is a loss leader. It undermines the industry and will eventually lead to lower quality games because it is unsustainable.
Netflix is already unsustainable but only survives due to equity growth which inevitably will end. Games are much more expensive to make than films or tv shows.

You'd have to be a gullible flute to fall for this 'streaming is a great future' stuff.... it is the path to a complete industry crash, a huge diminishing of quality and the loss of choice and products succeeding on merit.... instead of being force-fed crap..... which you must be looking forward to.

 

[Shantae]

If it's the last generation of physical games, then it's the last generation I buy games. Then the work on my backlog for the rest of my life starts, because I'm sure I got plenty of games.

 

[Mirumi]

So, There are a lot of heated arguements on here but I want to share my thoughts on this. Physical media is indeed a dying breed and yet....

I am a physical gamer; this year alone I have spent over 3800 USD on physical games, and I continue to plan to do so via Amazon, Limited Run, individual store sites, and the likes. I do my best to support the non used game markets, and I keep my collectors. The notion that Physical is going away next gen is still unknown. As long as physical gamers make Sony/Microsoft/Nin money and it is profitable, they will do it.

Interestingly while digital sales do take over, several sources show that in the first weeks of a titles launch, a vast majority are still Physical copies. This is probably tied to several reasons including:
Being able to trade them back in once you are done for high money back, something that cannot be done on Digital (yet)
Being able to share with friends, or pool money (yes people do that)
Internet speeds in a majority of even the US are still too garbage to warrant day 1 downloads, and even places that have 500/500 still have unpredictable downtimes.
Presence of Brick and Mortar stores that still exist that purchase large quantities and advertise for the companies.

Now, as for digital; it is probably inevitable that we will see a huge decline in physical availability, and yet I still am optimistic. They want Digital only, absolutely. It puts more money into their hands without dealing with retailers, allows them to get more data on purchases, and is cheaper to maintain (no production costs for discs or shortages). But I am still optimistic. And my reason is.. as long as you have people like me pouring 1000s every year into it, buying special editions, supporting LRG and these small stores, there will still be a market.

Honestly I think these pop up Physical stores like LRG I am 8 bit and the like have been game changers and is why they are still hesitant to drop Physical. So in short:

As Long as you have people dropping money on Physical Media and they stand to profit, they will continue to offer the services. It may be more expensive or more limited runs directly from publishers, but they still have invested into manufacturing of discs, and I do not think it is going away.

Oh, and a side note: If Netflix like GAAS comes up, that is kind of annoying. Netflix often takes certain series away and replaces it; That kind of turns me off of it especially if I have a notion to try a game that is out of "circulation"

 

[Shantae]

So, There are a lot of heated arguements on here but I want to share my thoughts on this. Physical media is indeed a dying breed and yet....

I am a physical gamer; this year alone I have spent over 3800 USD on physical games, and I continue to plan to do so via Amazon, Limited Run, individual store sites, and the likes. I do my best to support the non used game markets, and I keep my collectors. The notion that Physical is going away next gen is still unknown. As long as physical gamers make Sony/Microsoft/Nin money and it is profitable, they will do it.

Interestingly while digital sales do take over, several sources show that in the first weeks of a titles launch, a vast majority are still Physical copies. This is probably tied to several reasons including:
Being able to trade them back in once you are done for high money back, something that cannot be done on Digital (yet)
Being able to share with friends, or pool money (yes people do that)
Internet speeds in a majority of even the US are still too garbage to warrant day 1 downloads, and even places that have 500/500 still have unpredictable downtimes.
Presence of Brick and Mortar stores that still exist that purchase large quantities and advertise for the companies.

Now, as for digital; it is probably inevitable that we will see a huge decline in physical availability, and yet I still am optimistic. They want Digital only, absolutely. It puts more money into their hands without dealing with retailers, allows them to get more data on purchases, and is cheaper to maintain (no production costs for discs or shortages). But I am still optimistic. And my reason is.. as long as you have people like me pouring 1000s every year into it, buying special editions, supporting LRG and these small stores, there will still be a market.

Honestly I think these pop up Physical stores like LRG I am 8 bit and the like have been game changers and is why they are still hesitant to drop Physical. So in short:

As Long as you have people dropping money on Physical Media and they stand to profit, they will continue to offer the services. It may be more expensive or more limited runs directly from publishers, but they still have invested into manufacturing of discs, and I do not think it is going away.

Oh, and a side note: If Netflix like GAAS comes up, that is kind of annoying. Netflix often takes certain series away and replaces it; That kind of turns me off of it especially if I have a notion to try a game that is out of "circulation"

While I think you're right to a point, I think the people here who are assuming that this is the last physical media generation, are assuming that after this generation, there won't be consoles with disc drives. Hence, only digital is even an option.

I don't know if that'll ever happen, it seems stupid to me too. Like as much as they only want digital sales, if they want to release their product in some parts of the world, then they gotta have a physical version for some games. Otherwise they're giving up that money. Would Sony or Microsoft ever release a console that was digital only in some parts of the world, but then had a disc drive in some countries because it's necessary? People would be importing those like crazy, and locals wouldn't even be able to buy em.

 

[Mirumi]

While I think you're right to a point, I think the people here who are assuming that this is the last physical media generation, are assuming that after this generation, there won't be consoles with disc drives. Hence, only digital is even an option.

I don't know if that'll ever happen, it seems stupid to me too. Like as much as they only want digital sales, if they want to release their product in some parts of the world, then they gotta have a physical version for some games. Otherwise they're giving up that money. Would Sony or Microsoft ever release a console that was digital only in some parts of the world, but then had a disc drive in some countries because it's necessary? People would be importing those like crazy, and locals wouldn't even be able to buy em.

I feel that is still a risky move at this point even looking 7 years into the future. While PS5 is testing the waters with PS5DE, I think it will be one offering it first before the other and not both at the same time. They still stand to face backlash from customers that want physical like XB1 did. Then there is Nintendo, the other problem in this equation. It is an underppwered console and yet it is starting to not only outperform both PS4/XB1, but companies are FLOCKING to port every 3rd party game to it. If Sony/Micro go Digital only, they may lose a lot more to Nintendo next season of Console Wars Z. I mean we already saw a small wave go to switch specifically for the censorship issues with Sony...

 

[Stuart360]

If it's the last generation of physical games, then it's the last generation I buy games. Then the work on my backlog for the rest of my life starts, because I'm sure I got plenty of games.

You cant say for sure. Before i went PC only towards the end of last gen, i was 100% a physical guy, and hated the idea of digital, but once i went PC only, that choice was taken from me. Now 8 or 9 years later, i would nevre go back to physical even if i had the choice to.
I'll still love physical, and hope it stays around as long as possible on consoles for the people that want it. Plus a lot of console gamers against Physical, or are happy for a digital future, be careful what you wish for as once retail is gone, these companies can charge you whatever they want for digital games, and they will do. Its a bit different with PC because there are key sites and places where you can get digital games really cheap, not so much with digital console games (if Microsoft and Sony would even let you use keys bought elsewhere on their systems).

 

[TMLT]

Only way i'll stick around when things go all digital is if we have also fully transitioned into the Gamepass model to the extent that basically every game that comes out is accessible for a reasonable monthly subscription.

 

[Shantae]

You cant say for sure. Before i went PC only towards the end of last gen, i was 100% a physical guy, and hated the idea of digital, but once i went PC only, that choice was taken from me. Now 8 or 9 years later, i would nevre go back to physical even if i had the choice to.
I'll still love physical, and hope it stays around as long as possible on consoles for the people that want it. Plus a lot of console gamers against Physical, or are happy for a digital future, be careful what you wish for as once retail is gone, these companies can charge you whatever they want for digital games, and they will do. Its a bit different with PC because there are key sites and places where you can get digital games really cheap, not so much with digital console games (if Microsoft and Sony would even let you use keys bought elsewhere on their systems).

I feel like I can say it though because there was a period where I went heavy digital on consoles...Bought almost every game digitally on Wii U during it's peak years (if you can even call them peak). Bought a lot on every platform digitally...and ya know what I feel left with? Nothing but regret.

No resell value, no collectibles, nothing to look nice on my shelf. Just storage space that I constantly have to fight with. I hate it, and I'm not going back. I only buy digital if it's SUPER cheap, and/or if there is no other way to buy a game I'd like to play. If there is a physical version of a Switch game I want, but only is available in another region, I import.

 

[dcx4610]

Probably but I've always been under the philosophy that you appeal to all consumers.

I'm big into movie collecting and and a director's cut of Midsommar just got an announced for 4K and sold out in hours at $50 a pop. For a divisive and not a mainstream movie, that's pretty crazy. Physical media might be dying from retail and the mainstream but the collector is alive and well.

Us collectors love physical media and for some people with bandwidth or internet issues, there's no choice.

I have no problem with Sony pushing the digital version but I would keep going with physical media for those consumers that want it. Even if it means charging a premium. We will pay for it.

 

[Tesseract]

god i hope so

 

[Chromata]

You have absolutely no understanding of the economics...

Sheer volume? How does a very cheap subscription 1 dollar on offer or maximum 10 dollars per month compensate for a loss of 1-2 game sales on average per month per customer that moves from physical or digital full price to streaming????

Simple fact is that it doesn't, streaming is a loss leader. It undermines the industry and will eventually lead to lower quality games because it is unsustainable.
Netflix is already unsustainable but only survives due to equity growth which inevitably will end. Games are much more expensive to make than films or tv shows.

You'd have to be a gullible flute to fall for this 'streaming is a great future' stuff.... it is the path to a complete industry crash, a huge diminishing of quality and the loss of choice and products succeeding on merit.... instead of being force-fed crap..... which you must be looking forward to.

We can look over the numbers and you can tell me where I'm going wrong, then. Got the data from a few quick Google searches.

The 1 dollar offer isn't an accurate estimate since companies will typically take the loss to build volume in the early stages of subscription services. Game Pass is only 3 years old and already has over 10 million people subscribed. This number is growing extremely fast too, but even as is, that's $100 million a month from regular subscribers. Spiderman, Sony's best selling exclusive by far, brought in ~$650 million in its first year. Spiderman costed around $100 million to make. The vast majority of games cost and make far far below that amount. Game revenues also tend to drop off pretty hard after their initial release period (indies excepted).

These games are pitched, priced, and given production budgets relative to projected figures. So this uncertainty is always looming over the heads of publishers. If Game Pass has no growth then they're on pace to make $1.2 billion this year. That's enough to ensure a consistent stream of original content and licensing deals for third parties. We also know from developers that greenlighting a project to be made for Game Pass is easier due to its consistent revenue stream. There is no shortage of indies on Game Pass and there's also a higher chance of people giving a new game a shot.

To get a better idea of revenue, we can look at a more mature streaming service like Netflix. Netflix made $21 billion off their massive subscriber count and that number was up by 23% compared to last year. They've been throwing out high budget originals left and right, and still had a net profit of nearly $2 billion this year. I fail to see how this is so disastrous economically. The truth is that any piece of media will reach a far wider audience through a subscription service than it will with a $70 upfront asking price and that volume will reflect the lower price required per customer.

I know from your posts that you're vehemently against subscription services, which is fine since that's your opinion. But that doesn't mean proponents of streaming don't care about quality. Shows that are well rated or get a high amount of viewers are almost always given a new season/sequel (which counters your merit argument) and I have seen no shortage of quality from Netflix or Game Pass.

 

[nush]

I hope that won't happen! there's lots of poor people who can't afford buying full price or half or even less then that! and they relay on used games and trade them with other used games and with their friends!
No physical would make those poor people suffer! and we need to think about them because video games is for everyone to enjoy.

(/s?) Have you seen the prices of digital sale games, way cheaper than physical. Anyone in your poor strawman family that needs physical does not need to either buy a next gen console or buy day one/close to day one games anyway if they are so poor your argument holds any weight.

 

[Grinchy]

Having a disc-less version of a next-gen console on Day 1 tells me this is the last generation for discs.

 

[Bryank75]

We can look over the numbers and you can tell me where I'm going wrong, then. Got the data from a few quick Google searches.

The 1 dollar offer isn't an accurate estimate since companies will typically take the loss to build volume in the early stages of subscription services. Game Pass is only 3 years old and already has over 10 million people subscribed. This number is growing extremely fast too, but even as is, that's $100 million a month from regular subscribers. Spiderman, Sony's best selling exclusive by far, brought in ~$650 million in its first year. Spiderman costed around $100 million to make. The vast majority of games cost and make far far below that amount. Game revenues also tend to drop off pretty hard after their initial release period (indies excepted).

These games are pitched, priced, and given production budgets relative to projected figures. So this uncertainty is always looming over the heads of publishers. If game pass has no growth then they're on pace to make $1.2 billion this year. That's enough to ensure a consistent stream of original content and licensing deals for third parties. We also know from developers that greenlighting a project to be made for game pass is easier due to its consistent revenue stream. There is no shortage of indies on Game Pass and there's also a higher chance of people giving a new game a shot.

To get a better idea of revenue, we can look at a more mature streaming service like Netflix. Netflix made $21 billion off their massive subscriber count and that number was up by 23% compared to last year. They've been throwing out high budget originals left and right, and still had a net profit of nearly $2 billion this year. I fail to see how this is so disastrous economically. The truth is that any piece of media will reach a far wider audience through a subscription service than it will with a $70 upfront asking price and that volume will reflect the lower price required per customer.

I know from your post that you're vehemently against subscription services, which is fine since that's your opinion. But that doesn't mean proponents of streaming don't care about quality. Shows that are well rated or get a high amount of viewers are almost always given a new season/sequel (which counters your merit argument) and I have seen no shortage of quality from Netflix or Game Pass.

You just have to look at Netflix balance sheet to see what is wrong.... many investors are idiots just following trends, it's a glorified popularity contest. The old notions of fundamental analysis is mostly ignored.....

Look at how Netflix debt has exploded over the past few years, that is how they fund their content...it cannot go on for perpetuity. They show a profit but really, it isn't a profitable business.

Netflix’s Debt Is $14.8 Billion, Keeps Attracting Investors

Netflix’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) debt has been rising steadily for at least the past five years. The company finished 2019 with $14.8 billion in debt.

marketrealist.com

.

 

[Mirumi]

(/s?) Have you seen the prices of digital sale games, way cheaper than physical. Anyone in your poor strawman family that needs physical does not need to either buy a next gen console or buy day one/close to day one games anyway if they are so poor your argument holds any weight.

Way cheaper maybe down the road, but I can still buy most brand new games cheaper than Digital. Your argument is not 100% accurate either.

For proof, Walmart sells games at 10 dollars off DAY 1! I bought TLOU2, Xenoblade, FF7R, P5R and more this year alone from there CHEAPER than digital and Day 1.

 

[Bakkus]

If it is, then i'm done. Hopefully, as evident with the resurgence of Vinyl popularity, there will always be a market for this.

 

[Chromata]

You just have to look at Netflix balance sheet to see what is wrong.... many investors are idiots just following trends, it's a glorified popularity contest. The old notions of fundamental analysis is mostly ignored.....

Look at how Netflix debt has exploded over the past few years, that is how they fund their content...it cannot go on for perpetuity. They show a profit but really, it isn't a profitable business.

Netflix’s Debt Is $14.8 Billion, Keeps Attracting Investors

Netflix’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) debt has been rising steadily for at least the past five years. The company finished 2019 with $14.8 billion in debt.

marketrealist.com

.

This isn't a reflection of economic instability, this is how many companies centered around rapid growth operate. Rather than resting on their profits, they are perpetually in a state of growth where they're using credit/debt to expand.

It's just like what you'll see here: https://www.latimes.com/entertainme...-22/netflix-raises-1-billion-in-debt-offering

Netflix is not at all in a state of financial concern, if anything they're in a state of tremendous financial flexibility.

 

[ConkerTheSquirrel.]

I doubt it, they'll throw in a disc drive just to avoid upsetting the autistic "but I want to own my games!!!" crowd

Apparently I'm autistic. =D

 

[Mirumi]

I doubt it, they'll throw in a disc drive just to avoid upsetting the autistic "but I want to own my games!!!" crowd

I don't get this. We are all gamers, all players of games. OP asked a question for us to debate. I am curious, why are some people so against others enjoying Physical copies? It isn't hurting them digitally. If anything, we are supporting gaming and often paying a higher premium for 5-10 dollar games pumping more into the market.

 

[Barakov]

You just have to look at Netflix balance sheet to see what is wrong.... many investors are idiots just following trends, it's a glorified popularity contest. The old notions of fundamental analysis is mostly ignored.....

Look at how Netflix debt has exploded over the past few years, that is how they fund their content...it cannot go on for perpetuity. They show a profit but really, it isn't a profitable business.

Netflix’s Debt Is $14.8 Billion, Keeps Attracting Investors

Netflix’s (NASDAQ:NFLX) debt has been rising steadily for at least the past five years. The company finished 2019 with $14.8 billion in debt.

marketrealist.com

.

JFC. Seems like before a videogame crash we're going to have a streaming crash.

 

[Riastrad]

If everything goes digital, I'm checking out. No interest in the medium if I can't own physical copies.

 

[rofif]

Hope not. Cheap games and reselling are something not yet possible on PSN... In my country we get shit PSN deals and shit speed. While on steam I have 500 games and saturate my 600mbit.
And I use console for exclusives. it's nice to have these games on my shelf

 

[rofif]

god i hope so

Why? Having an option to buy cheap and resell is not hurting those who want digital only. PSN is not really ready too

 

[Alone in 2020]

(/s?) Have you seen the prices of digital sale games, way cheaper than physical. Anyone in your poor strawman family that needs physical does not need to either buy a next gen console or buy day one/close to day one games anyway if they are so poor your argument holds any weight.

So you want them to wait a year or more to play games they want to play so bad?
and you want them to play 10 games or so a year?
That's what will happens if there's no physical games! with physical they can buy one game and trade it with other used games in the game stores or with their friends.
and this will allows them to play and try lots of different games! unlike digital which they need to make sure about what they're gonna buy! because they can't trade it with another another game!

 

[G-Bus]

I'd think that would depend on how well these consoles sell from region to region.

 

[HerjansEagleFeeder]

Inevitability of digital is practical proof that videogames aren't art and probably never will be. Look at vinyl and tapes. Still going strong. They can't die, because people want to own music on these physical formats. If you truly appreciate the work an artist has made, you'll want to own a piece of it. Videogames are throwaway, cheap entertainment. That's why digital is this mediums future. Come at me, nerds.

 

[Riastrad]

Inevitability of digital is practical proof that videogames aren't art and probably never will be. Look at vinyl and tapes. Still going strong. They can't die, because people want to own music on these physical formats. If you truly appreciate the work an artist has made, you'll want to own a piece of it. Videogames are throwaway, cheap entertainment. That's why digital is this mediums future. Come at me, nerds.

Yep. I don't think it has to be that way, but it is.

 

[kuncol02]

Second hand market doesn't influence the game price AFAIK since developers don't get any of the proceeds.

The point is that game pass appeals to a large audience so you have a consistent stream of revenue which allows you to allocate the funds more readily into big and small projects. Subscription services bring a lot of money in through sheer volume which allows these companies to regularly pump out so much original content.

There's a larger risk inherent with physical sales because the price has to cover the production cost with the understanding that it's an all or nothing decision from the customer (pay $70 or no game) so risk assessments must be made.

I can answer to that with only one thing:
"xD"
Seriously. If you don't understand now why second hand market is important in keeping price relatively low then you will not understand that no mater what i would write.

 

[Hudo]

If it is then I'm either done buying games or I wait untill they're not more than $10 on GoG or something. I will certainly not pay $70 for a digital-only game that's locked behind some online account/digital store account.
If they are going forward with digital-only distribution, they might as well just go the Google Stadia route. There's no real difference for all I care.

If it were up to me, they'd ditch disc-based media and return to cartridge-based media.

 

[gradient]

It would be terrible for gamers and consumers if it was. Physical media provides much needed pricing pressure and allows consumers to see some return (even if at a loss) on their purchases. Take away that physical ownership and transferrable property and the hobby as a whole will become much more expensive and prone to monopoly manipulation.

With physical media I can buy a game, enjoy it and then either choose to sell it on to recoup some expense (which in turn usually feeds back into the market leading to further sales) or keep it and enjoy it again when I get the urge to revisit it. It promotes competition within the market and price reductions which are good for the consumer and allow less affluent gamers to access the hobby.

With digital you lose ownership, you lose resale and you lose the pressure on pricing. The savings publishers make on digital are not reflected in the pricing and without the market pressure that exists for physical games there is no incentive to reduce prices so the consumer ends up paying more for considerably less. It creates monopoly markets and allows publishers to removed products that you've already paid for at their own discretion so that you either have to pay for them again or (in some cases) the games are just lost because of licencing or "lack of commercial viability".

That said, yes I expect the physical media space to reduce considerably but there is enough pressure against it to ensure that there should be some smaller physical market available even if that's only smaller print run publishers catering to a reduced market.

 

[The Lunch Legend]

Having a disc-less version of a next-gen console on Day 1 tells me this is the last generation for discs.

Yeah, it looks like a Trojan horse to me.

 

[Makoto-Yuki]

MS were dipping their toes to test the water when they released the all digital Xbox one s.

Sony offering all digital PS5 at launch is another nail in the coffin. There are rumors the Series X will also have a disc less model.

They are slowly weaning people off discs. PS6 + XB5 will be all digital.

Streaming and buying digitally has dominated the music + movie industry. Shit, even books. It's only a matter of time before it happens to gaming. PC has ditched physical media for years now.

It's just stubborn console owners resisting the change. It will happen. If you don't like it then tough. Either suck it up or stop playing games.

Tick tock.

 

[hemo memo]

Unless they improve the stores greatly to allow for more options, physical is going to always be a thing.

 

[hemo memo]

Having a disc-less version of a next-gen console on Day 1 tells me this is the last generation for discs.

Yeah because game companies are so smart in predicting the future right?

 

[ZywyPL]

Going digital only is within publishers best interest that's for sure It will all depend on the revenue from physical sales during the next ~5 years, if the publishers see it's not worth it they 'll try to abandon it completely. I personally don't see an issue other than preventing video games to be bought as gift for someone.

 

[shaddam]

Hopefully.

Should've happened with PS4/XB1. The sooner physical media dies the better! Haven't bought a disc for a console in 6 years. Last time I bought a disc for my PC was 15 years ago.

I like to have a choice. BTW can you buy the scott pilgrim game in 2020?

 

[Chromata]

I can answer to that with only one thing:
"xD"
Seriously. If you don't understand now why second hand market is important in keeping price relatively low then you will not understand that no mater what i would write.

I don't even know what to say to that lol. That's one of the most closed minded things I've read on here.

 

[EverydayBeast]

I sure wish it's the last generation of physical games, it doesn't look like the PC crowd misses physical games.