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Is there really no path forward for Xbox as a platform?

L

LakeOf9

Member
Xbox's standing in the market has never been worse than it is right now. They are getting their ass handed to them from all sides of the market, and I wonder if there is any future for them as a platform holder.

The problem is that there are four frontiers on which Xbox can fight this fight, but all four of them have established, dominant incumbents and I don't see how Xbox would ever be able beat them:

  • Traditional Home Console: PlayStation has this part of the market under lock and key. Xbox has tried to beat PlayStation at this game for two and a half decades and barring a few golden years, never actually succeeded

  • PC gaming: Arguably the one area Microsoft and Xbox should have sewn up before anywhere else, Microsoft and Xbox have a long history of consistently failing at this with their storefront attempts, from Games For Windows Live to the UWP fuelled Windows Store, and now the Xbox PC gaming platform. Microsoft's big PC gaming successes all come on Steam, someone else's platform

  • Portable gaming: This is an area of the market that Nintendo has had an even longer monopoly on than Sony with consoles. In 45 tears of this market, no one has broken Nintendo's reign at the top of the portable market, including Sony and Valve, who are the guys who kicked Microsoft's ass in the other markets they tried to play in. An Xbox handheld sounds cool, but I don't see it doing very well against Nintendo, especially when Microsoft couldn't hack it against Valve and Sony in the other segments

  • Mobile gaming: Arguably the incumbent in this part of the market is the hardest one of all. Apple with the App Store owns and dominates mobile gaming, and its feels unlikely anything can properly challenge that - even Epic with the world's most popular game could not do it. This is before we even mention Google Play as another thorn in MS's side, and before we talk about the fact that Microsoft has had multiple failed attempts in the mobile market in the past.

So I don't see a path forward for Xbox as a platform. All segments of the market are completely dominated by existing incumbents who seem to benefit greatly from platform lock in and ecosystem effect. Theoretically there are still frontiers for video games that Microsoft could try to get in on - VR gaming (however this is on a decline from its already niche status, and ALSO completely dominated by an existing incumbent with Meta); cloud gaming (this is something that has had multiple high profile failures in the past, Microsoft themselves ave an existing cloud gaming platform that has stagnated, and this part of the market seems to be dominated largely by Nvidia); or maybe something completely new? But based on what we have in the market right now, I don't really see a path forward for Xbox as a platform.
 
That Damn Kid

That Damn Kid

Member
Here We Go Again GIF
 
Majukun

Majukun

Member
not really.

their only chance was a complete acquisition of actibliz that would allow them to keep exclusivity of the brands so that they would have their "killer apps"

but as it stands, with the biggest franchise forced to be multiplatform, there is really no reason to own an xbox unless you are a superfan of the handful of franchises they still have not ruined in their portfolio. I would have added the parity clause on PC as a negative as well (and I say that as a PC player), but with the prices rising and rising on the PC market, the separation between the two markets rises as well.

xbox better period was from the start of 2006, when they used their money to buy a lot of third party exclusives, but that ship has sailed and people are used to have everything available everywhere now.

I have the feeling that the recent closure of some studios are part of a last ditch attempt to do what sony did around 2009-ish iirc, aka restructure the studios so that they can have a more streamlined and better quality controlled pipeline for their next exclusives..although of all studios to kill, Tango was not one of them, which gives me little trust in them doing the right moves to put the brand back on track.

Also contrary to the past, the amount of years needed to complete a project has been extended even more..so even if they start now with said reconstruction, the fruits would not been seen in a long time.
 
yazenov

yazenov

Member
If it was any other company without the MS War chest, the Xbox would have been out of the console busines already being beaten to death by the competition.

But even with big daddy bailing them out, they still need to be profitable as it is a business first and foremost. Their last ditch effort was Gamepass and Xbox series S/X. Both bets were wrong and they flopped harder than the Xbox One generation. It's over.
 
IDKFA

IDKFA

I am Become Bilbo Baggins
Of course. Just not as a traditional console manufacture with exclusive console games.

It's pretty clear Microsoft have a different vision. If they were bothered about selling consoles then they wouldn't put their games on PC day one with Xbox, start publishing games on Sony/Nintendo consoles, make Gamepass accessible on a Amazon fire stick etc etc.

No, they envision a future where they are the largest publisher in the gaming industry. A publisher that also offers an attractive subscription service.

That doesn't mean there won't be any more Xbox hardware (there are rumors of a handheld), but their vision to success is a lot different to Sony and Nintendo.
 
Punished Miku

Punished Miku

Human Rights Subscription Service
They've just barely started to make inroads into the kitchen. Xbox Fridge was just the start. Insiders have been hinting at the Gears of War electric can opener for years. As food prices continue to rise, they're going to be perfectly positioned for the canned food explosion.
 
Sybrix

Sybrix

Member
If Xbox create and release exclusives again, then theres a way forward for future hardware.

As long as their strategy is gamepass and wanting as many gamepass users as possible then Xbox hardware and Xbox exclusives are long gone.
 
Roxkis_ii

Roxkis_ii

Member
Xbox doesn't believe in their own hardware. This whole gen they have been making moves to devalue the actual Xbox. Games day and date on PC makes it so you don't have to own an Xbox to get anything it has to offer.

Why should anyone believe in xbox when Microsoft doesn't believe in xbox?
 
analog_future

analog_future

Resident Crybaby
There is no path for Xbox as a console. There are plentiful paths for Xbox as a platform.


Microsoft came to terms with this years ago, hence the strong push for PC, cloud, publishing more and more of their games on other consoles, their rumored handheld, their entry into the mobile/phone market, and potential third party partners building their hardware SKUs.


They want to provide as many avenues as humanly possible to be able to easily enter their ecosystem. Their Xbox consoles will be a part of that, but a very small part and absolutely nothing like the central focus they've been in past generations.
 
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Dorago

Dorago

Member
Xbox was Halo. As long as they could release a good Halo people would buy Xbox. Every 343 Halo game has been garbage thus people don't play Xbox.
 
rm082e

rm082e

Member
Nope. They need a bunch of new IPs that are top quality and doing interesting new things, and they need them to be exclusive to their console, and not be on GamePass.
  • They don't have the leadership with any creative/taste-making ability. If they did, we would have seen evidence of it by now. And the leadership isn't going to be replaced. Again, we would have seen that by now if it were going to happen.
  • They don't have the money to do this because they spent it all buying Bethesda and ABK. They're not going to get a bunch of additional money to start up new studios to build new IP.
  • They have leaned into GamePass rather than backing away from it. GamePass only appeals to existing Xbox fans, not people outside of their ecosystem, and it's convinced their existing players not to buy games. Why would they when the games come to GamePass?
  • They've done so much damage to their console ecosystem that they can't afford to have true console exclusives anymore. I'm not just talking PS5 & Switch, but PC as well.
So no, they've passed the point of no return. They will either muddle along at their current level, or continue to shrink. If they continue to shrink, it seems likely they will not be able to justify keeping the hardware. They'll become a third party publisher with a cloud solution that almost no one wants. Then it just becomes a question of how valuable that is to MS long term and would it make more sense to spin it off into an independent company? I don't have a prediction on that, but I don't see a path to Xbox hardware becoming competitive with Sony and Nintendo.
 
P

PatientGamer

Gold Member
Whilst I think they've made a number of colossal failures and PR stunts gone wrong this generation — aren't they now arguably one of the bigger if not biggest publishers in gaming now?

"If you can't beat them, buy them.. I guess."
 
L

LakeOf9

Member
PatientGamer said:
Whilst I think they've made a number of colossal failures and PR stunts gone wrong this generation — aren't they now arguably one of the bigger if not biggest publishers in gaming now?

"If you can't beat them, buy them.. I guess."
Click to expand...
As a publisher, yes. As a platform, however?
 
Mr Hyde

Mr Hyde

Member
Xbox and Game Pass as a service makes the most sense. The app on the tv works pretty well for what it delivers and PC Game Pass is enticing and could evolve to something more significant. The PC segment is something MS could improve and maybe win some market share, but it's strange that they didn't take a stab at this opportunity earlier, before Steam, and instead chose to wage war against Playstation. They basically had an open goal with the Windows platform and somehow missed the boat and now it's too late. But that feels like MS in a nutshell. The video game market and industry is something they don't really understand despite making valiant efforts for 20 years.
 
Last edited:
Fess

Fess

Member
Traditional console? Nope. Needs exclusives.

PC launcher? Already there but Steam is better. Needs exclusives.

TV app? Maybe if combined with Geforce Now. But it needs exclusives.

Handheld? Maybe for BC. Would have exclusives, kinda. But it would be niche.

Hybrid PC console? Yeah, if the hardware is great and if it has full Steam access. But, needs exclusives.

So, in the end. No. It needs exclusives and they’re moving away from that.
 
Azelover

Azelover

Titanic was called the Ship of Dreams, and it was. It really was.
I have heard in the past that parts of Microsoft have wanted to get rid of the Xbox hardware for the longest time. All things considered It's a huge money black hole for them. The only reason we still have the hardware is because of the ego of some top executives. So don't be shocked if they bail at some point..
 
Fess

Fess

Member
PeteBull said:
For any platform to be succesful u need high quality exclusives, simple as that
Click to expand...
Exactly. It’s amazing that they don’t realize this. And as a PC gamer, why would I play anything on the weakest possible hardware their games are released on? There is no upside to using their console. None.

And Sony is messing up too with their late PC ports. As a PC gamer, should I waste games on weaker hardware? or should I wait 1-4 years to play games? or should I buy everything twice?
Couldn’t be more annoying.

Nintendo is the only one left who knows how to do this. They’re dinosaurs but they do it right. Plenty of exclusives, real exclusives.
 
Loomy

Loomy

Thinks Microaggressions are Real
It's actually very simple.

Step 1: Release very good exclusive games
Step 2: Do that every year
Step 3: Go back 11 years and start then
Step 4: While you're back in the past, fire everyone at Microsoft involved with the development and unveiling of Xbox One
Step 5: You will meet a man named Phil Spencer. Do not believe his lies.
 
PeteBull

PeteBull

Gold Member
Loomy said:
It's actually very simple.

Step 1: Release very good exclusive games
Step 2: Do that every year
Step 3: Go back 11 years and start then
Step 4: While you're back in the past, fire everyone at Microsoft involved with the development and unveiling of Xbox One
Step 5: You will meet a man named Phil Spencer. Do not believe his lies.
Click to expand...
That sounds like current era xbox-kun died in truck-accident and got isekaied into og xbox era, great manga/anime adaptation material, would read :messenger_smiling_hearts:
Edit: kk, time to manifest it
main-qimg-c887ed6b1b449c27e94965445fd6ec03-lq
 
Last edited:
cireza

cireza

Gold Member
If there is no path forward they will die and the world will continue without them.

I do find it funny though that most of the time in these threads the premise is that Nintendo don't count in the home console market while they have sold a ton more Switches as home consoles.

If you completely ignore Nintendo, who are actually going strong, then Sony have the home console market locked. Yeah sure. But if you take a closer look, it seems to me that Sony are on the verge of having all the issues MS have and the outlook is certainly not great, while I have zero worries concerning Nintendo.
 
Last edited:
HeWhoWalks

HeWhoWalks

Gold Member
Fess said:
Exactly. It’s amazing that they don’t realize this. And as a PC gamer, why would I play anything on the weakest possible hardware their games are released on? There is no upside to using their console. None.

And Sony is messing up too with their late PC ports. As a PC gamer, should I waste games on weaker hardware? or should I wait 1-4 years to play games? or should I buy everything twice?
Couldn’t be more annoying.

Nintendo is the only one left who knows how to do this. They’re dinosaurs but they do it right. Plenty of exclusives, real exclusives.
Click to expand...
Eh, Sony is fine. It’s why they’re still highly successful. They are nowhere near the position that Xbox is in and it goes far beyond the exclusive.

Besides, Nintendo is where they are because they capitalized on their main strength (handheld). It wasn’t just because of their exclusives. Another Wii/Wii U would not have reached the Switch’s success. It’s not to reduce their accomplishments, but they lost in the strict home console market to Sony. Multiple times.

Still, like Sony, they know what the they’re doing. They aren’t Xbox.
 
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D

Drew1440

Member
Microsoft are currently going through their mid-90s Sega phrase, where they have to support multiple platforms (Windows, Xbox Series X/S, Xbox One, Cloud) adding a handheld to the mix will fragment their offering.

I can see them merging Windows and the Series X together as a high end gaming platform, with the S/handheld being their portable and low end gaming platform. Rarley can console makers support multiple platforms, Sony failed to keep the Vita alive with the PS4, as did Nintendo with the Wii U/3DS. They are going to have to scale back in order to survive
 
bitbydeath

bitbydeath

Member
analog_future said:
There is no path for Xbox as a console. There are plentiful paths for Xbox as a platform.


Microsoft came to terms with this years ago, hence the strong push for PC, cloud, publishing more and more of their games on other consoles, their rumored handheld, their entry into the mobile/phone market, and potential third party partners building their hardware SKUs.


They want to provide as many avenues as humanly possible to be able to easily enter their ecosystem. Their Xbox consoles will be a part of that, but a very small part and absolutely nothing like the central focus they've been in past generations.
Click to expand...
The majority of the divisions money comes from Xbox console players, if they don’t transition off it to Xbox as a service then it will die too.
 
Gambit2483

Gambit2483

Member
cireza said:
If there is no path forward they will die and the world will continue without them.

I do find it funny though that most of the time in these threads the premise is that Nintendo don't count in the home console market while they have sold a ton more Switches as home consoles.

If you completely ignore Nintendo, who are actually going strong, then Sony have the home console market locked. Yeah sure. But if you take a closer look, it seems to me that Sony are on the verge of having all the issues MS have and the outlook is certainly not great, while I have zero worries concerning Nintendo.
Click to expand...
Nintendo never matters when they are successful.

Nintendo only factors into these conversations when they are struggling.
 
U

Unknown Soldier

Member
Azelover said:
I have heard in the past that parts of Microsoft have wanted to get rid of the Xbox hardware for the longest time. All things considered It's a huge money black hole for them. The only reason we still have the hardware is because of the ego of some top executives. So don't be shocked if they bail at some point..
Click to expand...
Satya Nadella wanted to axe the Xbox when he took over as CEO along with Windows Phone.

Windows Phone got taken out back but the Xbox execs at the time convinced him to do a stay of execution on Xbox.

The purchase of Activision Blizzard likely marks the end of Xbox as a separate proprietary hardware platform. Microsoft Gaming will transition to being a regular 3rd party game publisher
 
RoboFu

RoboFu

One of the green rats
Are you guys really that dumb? .. Xbox as a platform is probably in the best position going forward for the long game. Contrary to what you may think there will be a time when there are no more singular console hardware and all games will be on app services. MS holds a lot of big third party ips for that sole purpose. It's literally the whole purpose of multiple countries trying to ban the activation deal.

Nintendo will have their first party app service which will keep them going with their hugely popular ever green titles

Sony is trying to build up enough ever green first party titles to do the same.
 
bitbydeath

bitbydeath

Member
RoboFu said:
Are you guys really that dumb? .. Xbox as a platform is probably in the best position going forward for the long game. Contrary to what you may think there will be a time when there are no more singular console hardware and all games will be on app services. MS holds a lot of big third party ips for that sole purpose. It's literally the whole purpose of multiple countries trying to ban the activation deal.

Nintendo will have their first party app service which will keep them going with their hugely popular ever green titles

Sony is trying to build up enough ever green first party titles to do the same.
Click to expand...
One could argue that Sega is many years ahead of Xbox on this “plan”.
 
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