arts&crafts
Member
Guess I will have to vote. But it is still early in Trudeau's reign, he could screw up.
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Kevin O'Leary launches unofficial PM bid against Justin Trudeau
- Thread starter NotTheGuyYouKill
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entremet
Member
Don't rest on your laurels!
Sapiens
Member
Canadians love, LOVE blowhards. We invented voting for Trump before it was cool by getting Rob Ford in. Don't underestimate our ability to spite-vote.
entremet
Member
We gotta link to older Trump threads. That will be a laugh. Same reactions as here.
Don't get cocky, guys.
excelsiorlef
Member
Yeah it's easy to reject someone else right wing nutter but when you get your own countries brand of nutter all of a sudden it's different.
gutter_trash
Banned
the NDP is leaderless and no candidate has thrown a serious intent in running for its 2017 leadership.
2011 will be difficult for the NDP to repeat without an ubber charismatic lovable leader, Justin Trudeau is now that for the Liberals.
2ndly, people didn't FOR the NDP in 2011, they voted for Jack the man not the party.
Spider from Mars
tap that thorax
Welcome to the new age, to the new age, welcome to the new age.
excelsiorlef
Member
And it still wasn't enough.
The irony that the NDP's greatest victory came at the hand of delivering Harper's first majority will never not depress me...
And then they chose Mulcair and I found a new way to hate my party.
NDP is going to shift back to third party and at best spoiler, they could cause Trudeau trouble in BC if pipeline stuff is still remembered by the time of the next election... (even if Trudeau's policy is pragmatic a lot of BC folks are pissed). If there is a decent Conservative momentum the NDP could be the difference between a minority Liberal and a minority conservative government.
BlackLagoon
Member
But the voting mechanics for CPC leadership are quite different than the US presidential primaries.
- It's limited to dues paying party members ($15).
- Vote happens on a single day across the entire country.
- Instead of delegates, each riding gets 100 points that are assigned proportionally. So no getting most of the delegates with 30-35% of the vote which helped Trump early on.
- Ranked ballot (single transferable vote) so splitting the establishment vote won't help as the least popular candidates will be removed and their votes transfer over to the voters' next preference until one candidate has a majority of the points.
entremet
Member
How much of a right wing nutter is O'Leary?
His main thing is repealing the carbon tax, right? Has he talked about anything else? He seems rather socially liberal.
It seems he's more copying the posturing of Trump than the rhetoric.
capitalCORN
Member
Socially liberal in the sense that he thinks that widespread worldwide poverty is a blessing.
Oppo
Member
3 words for you:
Rob Fucking Ford
we are not immune at all to this. it's a global wave. I just hope the usual structures provide some buffer.
but yeah, all lefties in Canada should have gone on red alert after the US Election night.
look at this asshole setting the frame already:
amazing. "if I wave my arms wildly like this in front of me, and walk towards you, it's not my fault if you get hit." this is little kid stuff. he's signalling like crazy that he's taken the lesson to go berserk with the rhetoric because we know it'll work on a certain chunk of the population.
"get ready kids! I'm a piece of shit! buckle the fuck up!"
palming right through my skull.
Lord Frieza
Member
What are you referring to? The only major election I'm aware of in Europe post-Trump was Austria's recount one, and the populist Trump-like leader was defeated by a decent margin. I actually was under the impression that the in party power used the unrest of American after Trump's win as a point against him, too, which may have lead to a much bigger defeat than the first one, which was slim victory for the reigning party.
entremet
Member
Lol yeah.
I just wonder how much of that is TV bravado. His only policy position so far has been to repeal the carbon tax.
To be fair, I don't think he would be good for Canada and he's a blowhard. I'd just like more substance to better judge him.
gutter_trash
Banned
many will run out of money until the CPC convention; Max currently leads will the largest donor base, mostly localized in Quebec, but still sizable larger than Leetche's
Many candidates could split in Ontario and the Prairies but Max will take most of the memberships from Quebec to make him competitive.
excelsiorlef
Member
His economic policies will fuck over poor people everywhere.... like hardcore.
Anyone who says the government ought to be run like a business is a hardcore moron who will just make people suffer.
Obama is very well liked and we said the same about Trump being the opposite of American Values.
excelsiorlef
Member
To be fair Obama didn't run against Trump.
This would be a different situation as the popular guy would also be in the race
Lord Frieza
Member
And if Trump would have run against Obama, odds are he would have lost pretty soundly.
EDIT: Trump also isn't the opposite of American Values, unfortunately, as much as a lot of us want to believe he is.
gutter_trash
Banned
The CPC candidates will have a French only debate on January 17th
The last Bilingual debate in New Brunswick was total shit with way too many candidates saying nothing.
I expect O'Leary to listen to questions without an ear piece but still answer all questions in English anyway.
The last Bilingual debate in New Brunswick was total shit with way too many candidates saying nothing.
I expect O'Leary to listen to questions without an ear piece but still answer all questions in English anyway.
The Netherlands is on route to elect Geert Wilders, France is very close to Mary Le'Pen, Germany's Bavarian Branch of the CHristian Party (extreme right really that not even the rest of the German Christian/Conservative party likes) or Miss Petry and her idiots?
All of these people that support or are even on the list to be elected... will openly say they don't like Trump, only to say the same things later on. Just a bit more tailored to the region were they are from. FOr instance. Geert Wilders uses gay people as a shield and a stick to hit Muslims with (He doesn't really care about them, but in the Netherlands most people don't like you bashing gay people. So they shield behind them. Heck the NAZI's even do false flags... like painting over a "Gaybra crossing" while making Hitler salutes.. hoping people would blame some Islamists... to bad they got caught on camera
). But basically each european state has it's own tailor made version of the memberberries, that is why you need to be careful, they will act like they are different.. but they are exactly the same.
Lord Frieza
Member
The Netherlands is on route to elect Geert Wilders, France is very close to Mary Le'Pen,Germany's Bavarian Branch of the CHristian Party (extreme right really that not even the rest of the German Christian/Conservative party likes) or Miss Petry and her idiots?
All of these people that support or are even on the list to be elected... will openly say they don't like Trump, only to say the same things later on. Just a bit more tailored to the region were they are from. FOr instance. Geert Wilders uses gay people as a shield and a stick to hit Muslims with (He doesn't really care about them, but in the Netherlands most people don't like you bashing gay people. So they shield behind them. Heck the NAZI's even do false flags... like painting over a "Gaybra crossing" while making Hitler salutes.. hoping people would blame some Islamists... to bad they got caught on camera
But basically each european state has it's own tailor made version of the memberberries, that is why you need to be careful, they will act like they are different.. but they are exactly the same.
Woah, I was under the impression that Le'Pen was considered a possibly for the final run off, but overall unlikely to win. What's changed there? I know there's some fear about the German election, is Merkel pretty much thought to be dead in the water now? I thought the general idea was that she still had a pretty strong base, though. Not familiar with The Netherlands, is it pretty much given the Wilders guy is going to win?
Everytime I've watched this show this guy comes across as the douchebag who already has a lot but wants to skim just a tiny bit more from the poor people he's scamming. So he fits right in with conservatives. Hell, this platform seems to be largely based on how he benefits as a business man, when he's already extremely well off. Sickening.
Obama never ran against him anyway. He will that election if he's available.
LordOfChaos
Member
The irony of the comprehensibility of this statement.
I can tell you this with almost certainty, if it comes down to being a close race (and this is in a fictional world were O'Leary actually is the party leader and the nomination), people will jump off the NDP vote so fast and vote liberal to keep him out and no one will be shocked.
People reading this as a Trump scenario need to understand that our election process is different. In short, we don't vote for our prime minister dorectly. He'd need to be voted in by the people elected as members of parliament (kinda like congressmen) and I'm 99% sure he'd need to be MP as well. Even if he managed to be the conservative choice he'd still be facing multiple other parties which would probably make things difficult.
It's not a call to brush it off as nothing by any stretch but it isn't a direct analog to Trump as it may seem at first. I would argue though that I am not opposed to an outsider candidate like Trump solely on that. Trump is unfit for a million reasons but if you had like Elon Musk looking to genuinely better the world and listening to the sensible advice of people it could be alright. I have no idea about O'Leary's policies so idk how that would go. But yes, not a bad idea by any stretch to shit this guy down hard if he tries to do the Trump playbook.
It's not a call to brush it off as nothing by any stretch but it isn't a direct analog to Trump as it may seem at first. I would argue though that I am not opposed to an outsider candidate like Trump solely on that. Trump is unfit for a million reasons but if you had like Elon Musk looking to genuinely better the world and listening to the sensible advice of people it could be alright. I have no idea about O'Leary's policies so idk how that would go. But yes, not a bad idea by any stretch to shit this guy down hard if he tries to do the Trump playbook.
Which also begs the question, where wild he run for mp? He's originally from Montreal but doesn't live there. Is he in Toronto, he's not winning in the city itself. Maybe some 905 seat.
bonesmccoy
Banned
I could see O'Leary at least being a competitive candidate. The CPC won't have Harper creating a major rift in the party, nor will it have all his luggage to carry around.
BlackLagoon
Member
The Dutch have been electing Geert Wilders since 1998. I suppose you mean his party is currently polling as getting the most seats in the next parliamentary elections, which is true, but this seems to be largely because a lot of voters are fleeing the two current governing parties in favor of previously smaller ones.
And even with current polling Geert's PVV is still only getting about 24% of the seats, which means he'd have to compromise and join with other parties in a coalition to actually form a government, and other parties could easily join together and block him from the prime minister spot altogether if they so wanted. Don't know enough of Dutch politics to say what's most likely to happen, but regardless this is hardly equivalent to Trump winning the presidency.
Business man wants to make Canada great again by saving it from the dirty liberals, and promoting dirty energy policy does sound familiar.
March of the Crabs
Member
I've never been a Trudeau fan but he's a better PM than Harper solely by not being xenophobic, and way better than fucking Kevin O'Leary would be.
matthewwhatever
Member
He's got to win the leadership first, and this:
Is a pretty good list of reasons why that's not very likely to happen. The system is set up in a way that rewards candidates who've put in the time to go fro coast to coast to coast, building their organizations and meeting with CPC members, who are the only people who can vote in this race. It's not like the US primary system in any way, shape or form. No matter how popular O'Leary may be with the general public -- which is taking a whole lot for granted, since there's no evidence he's widely popular -- all that matters is how acceptable he is to party members, and without him being willing to literally go from town to town, building up support in places like Moose Jaw and Cornerbrook and Aurora and Chicoutimi, I doubt they'll like him all that much.
Also, he's starting the race in a massive hole financially. Again, this isn't the US, with its obscene amounts of money. There's a hard cap on fundraising at $1,525 per person, and there's no such thing as third party groups or superPACs. He can't just self-fund a campaign either, assuming he even has enough money to do so -- he could only lend himself up to $25k. By comparison, the entry fee for the race is $50k. Tony Clement dropped out when he only raised $20k in a quarter. Sure, O'Leary has some name recognition, but that's not enough to do advertising and outreach targeting CPC members, let alone building a campaign team.
And scary as she is, she's not very likely to win, since the system is set up in a way to reward consensus candidates, rather than extreme ones. Like I said, the US example doesn't apply here.
All things considered, there's no reason to believe O'Leary has any knowledge of facts or figures. I know he likes spouting off on TV, but here's the thing: he's not very bright, and he rarely knows what he's talking about. Neither of those factors are disqualifying, but it'll make it hard for him to stand out amongst politicians who actually have debate experience and have some grasp of the material.
What? That's not true at all, either now or historically. The CPC was dead in Newfoundland while the PCs under Danny Williams racked up huge majorities. While Ontario was sending 40+ years of PC governments to Queen's Park, they were generally electing Liberals in Ottawa; more recently, Mike Harris got in as premier less than two years after the Liberals under Chretien won literally every seat in the province, and while the Liberals and McGuinty kept winning the same people were voting for Harper's party federally. Rachel Notley won a pretty huge NDP majority in Alberta in May 2015, which led to the NDP winning precisely one seat in the federal election 5 months later. I could go on, but the point is: what you said has zero basis in reality.
Nope. Canada is based on Westminster-style democracy, where the party which wins the most seats gets a chance to form government. Each seat is based on whoever wins the most votes in that riding, which has zero bearing on any other ridings. It's quite possible, though rare, to form government without winning a plurality of the votes.
And it's actually the rural vote that's disproportionately strong: PEI (population of about 100k) has four seats, and each of the territories have a seat, even though their combined population is less than 100k. The average seat in Ontario represents 100,000 voters. There are more urban seats, to be sure, but in no way is it disproportionate.
He tried to soft launch his campaign with a video where he called Parliament Hill "Capitol Hill." On top of all the other evidence, I'd say it's pretty likely O'Leary doesn't know a single thing about the Parliamentary process.
Dubbedinenglish
Banned
You guys need to not overestimate the goodness of people, and not underestimate how much feelings are resilient to facts.
capitalCORN
Member
Nah, you have to wait until at least the second term until the Liberal hubris hits the fan.
You're misunderstanding my point. Our ballots wouldn't say Trump. They say our local representatives who would then have to vote for Trump. It's possible, sure, but he'd need to convince his rivals that he is the person for the job.
Trump won by being a charismatic caricature who had all the answers and uninformed people voted him in. Do you really think that if the republican party went and determined their leadership on their own that they'd come up with Trump? This is putting aside the fact that even if that party won with him as their candidate we would likely have a coalition situation anyway.
I'm not dismissing this, I'm just saying it is not the same thing.
Yes, as was the case with electing Trudeau. I just don't want to see what happened in the US be repeated with us (voter apathy, throwaway votes to third parties, voting for the opposition out of spite).
Extra Sauce
Member
They're going to send out a casting call for a Trump-like combover.
User Name Here
Member
Get ready to make Canada great again! Big league!
It takes a lot to make me angry. This certainly did it.
gutter_trash
Banned
In seriousness, I want Chong to win the leadership because he is the most ''Liberal'' of the CPC candidates. But I know he won't win.
for comedy: I would like to see Max win for the LOLz.
But if I was a betting man, I think Sheer is going to win.
for comedy: I would like to see Max win for the LOLz.
But if I was a betting man, I think Sheer is going to win.
Hair plugs would not go over well in a televised debate
Make Syrup Flow Again!
Build A Wall Alongside Alaska & Make Russia Pay For It!
Law & Order: Vancouver!
In all seriousness, what i'm seeing a lot of people forget in this thread is one important thing: It wasn't too long ago where Stephen Harper was Prime Minister with a majority government and there's a few years between now and the next Canadian election for Trudeaumania 2.0 to dissipate and the vote to either be split among NDP and Liberal MPs or for the CPC's new leader to . We need to start taking action now like, say, registering in the CPC and voting against Leitch, Trost, Bernier and O'Leary, hold their supporters/backers' feet to the fire when they say things like how they want to screen visitors for "anti-Canadian values" or praise income equality with a "fuck you, got mine" statement, and contacting your local MPs, especially if they're members of the Conservative Party of Canada, and confront them. Ask them if they will support their plans should they be leading the party.
I voted Trudeau. I just never like any one party being power too long so it was time for Harper to go. That said I know full well that Trudeau only got attention because he was a cutey. Even now his looks is all anyone talks about. I mean it certainly wasn't his slogans "sunny days sunny ways.." or some dumb shit.
Anyway the luster is wearing off and his numbers are way down.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/12/10/support-for-federal-liberals-plummets-new-poll-shows.html
So anyway I think there is a good chance he loses next election and I don't even think legalizing pot will help him.
Anyway the luster is wearing off and his numbers are way down.
https://www.thestar.com/news/canada/2016/12/10/support-for-federal-liberals-plummets-new-poll-shows.html
So anyway I think there is a good chance he loses next election and I don't even think legalizing pot will help him.
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