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[Eddie-Griffin]

Updated chart as of 12/13/2022

	Game	Platform
1	Sonic The Hedgehog	15 million
2	Sonic 2	Over 7 million
3	Sonic 3 and Sonic & Knuckles	4 million (combined)
4	Sonic Heroes	3.4 million
5	Sonic Adventure	2.5 million (DC)
6	Sonic Frontiers	2.5 million
7	Sonic Unleashed	2.45 million
8	Sonic Colors	2.18 million
9	Shadow the Hedgehog	Over 2 million
10	Sonic Generations	1.85 million

11

Sonic Adventure 2 Battle (GC)

1.5 million

12	Sonic CD	1.5 million
13	Sonic Mania	Over 1 million
14	Sonic 2006	870,000 (Genesis only)
15	Sonic Lost World	710,000 (Original sales Wii U)
16	Sonic 3D Blast	700,000 (Genesis)
17	Sonic Boom Wii U and 3DS	620,000
18	Sonic Forces	Less than 15k in Japan, Unknown ROTW no chart placement

Very surprised at new Sonic Frontiers sales being at 2.5 million this quickly, but there's still a question if it can shake Sonic tradition of a strong entrance but then a quick sales death that many Mainline Sonic games, especially 3D ones, suffer. Time will tell.



Original thread below form Aug 31st 2022,
One thing about Sonic is that between the decades of media, being Segas mascot, the recent movies, the comparisons to other major franchises, people get distracted from the fact that Sonic has never been a major video game franchise in performance for most of its existence. This statement will immediately perk up ears, but the franchise had a strong beginning and never really lived up to even half that expectation even today. The last decade in particular has seen the series in a downward trend, as shown in the following chart.

I though we could have a guessing game to determine how Sonic Frontiers, the upcoming entry in Sega's star franchise, will sell before launch. Will it continue to trend and become the worst selling major Sonic title, do better than Sonic Boom, or will it somehow miraculously lift the Franchise back to the top that 29 years of games couldn't do until now?

	Game	Platform
1	Sonic The Hedgehog	15 million
2	Sonic 2	Over 7 million
3	Sonic CD	1.5 million
4	Sonic 3 and Sonic & Knuckles	4 million combined
5	Sonic Adventure	2.5 million
6	Sonic Adventure 2 (Gamecube)	Over 1.5 million
7	Sonic 3D Blast	700,000 (Genesis only)
8	Sonic Heroes	Over 3 million (revitalization, first cross-platform game)
9	Shadow the Hedgehog	Over 2 million
10	Sonic 2006	870,000

	Post Unleashed Boost Saga	Revitalization
B1	Sonic Unleashed	2.45 million
B2	Sonic Colors	2.18 million
B3	Sonic Generations	1.85 million
B4	Sonic Lost World	710,000 original sales Wii U
B5	Sonic Boom Wii U and 3DS	620,000
B6	Sonic Forces	Less than 15k in Japan, Unknown ROTW no chart placement
??????	Sonic Frontiers	What could it be? Take a guess

What will it be?


Curiously, the best selling games involving Sonic aren't major Sonic franchise releases since the first game, but crossovers with Mario.

1	Mario & Sonic at Olympic Games	over 10 million copies sold
2	Mario & Sonic at Winter Olympic Games	over 6 million copies sold
3	Mario & Sonic at London games	over 3 million copies sold

Once could make the argument Sonic needed Mario to sell, but that seems to in decline too. I have no idea how the newest Olympic games entry is doing but maybe Sega will reveal those at some point.

<>
My Guess is, it may outsell whatever sales of Sonic Forces Sega is hiding, just because Sega seems to have fooled enough people to be sucked into the hype. However, I think the usual release firewall will pop up, and if the game is mediocre or bad the quick word of mouth will slow those sales down fast.

I know the movies may play some factor, but they didn't increase Sonic sales in general so I think their impact will be limited for Sonic Frontiers. I believe that over 1 million copies will be a very hard sell given recent history. I don't see anything that has changed surrounding the franchise to fix that, so it's really a question IMO, if Sonic Frontiers will outsell Sonic Boom or Wii U Sonic Lost World. Sonic Lost World may have made it over a million years later because of the steam release, but it also had a major bump at the beginning I'm not sure Frontiers will have, making it much harder to reach that number. Sonic Forces did poorly, not on nearly any charts, Sega claimed strong sales but didn't give numbers, which was unusual for them. That game was released on almost every available platform under the sun, so that's not a guarantee for sales compared to Sonic Lost World, which was originally only on one platform.

If the game scores well (above an 80) and there's some other Sonic related announcements that could increase interest before launch, I think that it will outsell Sonic Boom, and perhaps have the possibility of reaching 1 million by the end of its shelf life with well timed discounts, otherwise it'll fall just short.

If the game scores the usual for Sonic 3D games (below 80) and there's mixed or negative word of mouth, I'm not sure it could pass boom without quick discounts and being at a bargain price for years. But even so it won't touch Lost World Wii U, and will assuredly not touch 1 million copies.

 

[ckaneo]

If it sells badly we will never get the results so this thread doesnt matter.

 

[PhaseJump]

I'll say 2 million, after it's in a clearance bin.

 

[TLZ]

How will it sell before launch?

/s

 

[adamsapple]

It's probably gonna sell decent. A couple of million easily, The Sonic name still holds cache and a lot of people will want to check this out cause of the movie(s).

But it will be a terrible game.

 

[Captain Toad]

2.5 million

And in a shocking turn of events, it won't be terrible.

It won't be in any danger of winning any GOTY awards either though.

 

[Saber]

In short, it will be bad. Sonic Forces hit the train pretty hard and I see no reason for an unspired Sonic game that looks like it was fanmade to have any chance.

And this without taking consideration the competition. Logic follows that Sonic movies pushed kids into their games(his movies indeed did a great job increasing Sonic popularity over kids), but he faces a strong competition against Pokemon, a franchise that could sell dirt and still would sell a freaking lot.
And then you have the God of War, which I honestly couldn't care, but it's one of most antecipated games for Playstation. Wonder which one people would choose.

The only reason for me to even believe this gonna sell it's because is multiplataform(Sonic Forces also was multiplataform). Also its very funny you skipped Sonic Mania despite being one of most sucessfull recent Sonic games.

 

[ReBurn]

as long as it hits #1 on the UK boxed charts it will be a success

 

[adamsapple]

as long as it hits #1 on the UK boxed charts it will be a success

i understood that reference .gif

 

[CherryFalls]

2.84 million

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Very strange people saying over 2 million despite the declining sales history o the franchise in the OP, I don't really see how the game would revitalize the franchise that much but i guess people are thinking that the movies are going to have a much bigger effect on game sales, despite that not really having worked on anything else Sonic.

Also its very funny you skipped Sonic Mania despite being one of most sucessfull recent Sonic games.

You mean the game not made by Sonic Team?

 

[winjer]

I bet on little over one million.

 

[Saber]

You mean the game not made by Sonic Team?

Was Sonic Boom made by Sonic Team?
Btw, where did you post a rule that it has to be exactly created by Sonic Team in order to be valid? Sonic is from Sega.

 

[The Stig]

I bet on little over one million.

agreed. there's still this significant group of fans that buy ANYTHING sonic.

me? all I want is mania 2. but we cant have nice things because of said fans

 

[Chukhopops]

I think it will do around 2 millions, in part because the movies’ success will bring new kids to the franchise.

Also I will buy it and (probably) enjoy it, I liked what I saw past the initial bad gameplay trailer.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Was Sonic Boom made by Sonic Team?
Btw, where did you post a rule that it has to be exactly created by Sonic Team in order to be valid? Sonic is from Sega.

Yes, they were involved with the game. Also stop, all the games on the list are Sonic team games or involve Sonic Team in development, Sonic Team is making Frontiers, you are grasping for straws.

Also it wouldn't change much anyway, Sonic Maniac just made over 1 million and needed 3 releases to do so. It's still a clear downward trend for the 3D games in sales, and it took 3 releases of a game based off nostalgia looking like a Genesis game to even hit 1 million in a reasonable time. These aren't issues other supposedly big franchises deal with.

Sonic 3 and Knuckles did 4 million combined, I'd like to see if a major Sonic game can even sell 4 million by itself.

More people brought Sonic playing with Mario at the Olympics than Sonic games the last several years.

 

[Wohc]

All platforms? 2,5-3 million then i guess.

 

[TheGecko]

25k

 

[01011001]

I have this weird feeling that it will be the fastest selling Sonic game in history... I don't know why...

 

[Ceallach]

At least 2 will be sold

 

[Saber]

Yes, they were involved with the game. Also stop, all the games on the list are Sonic team games or involve Sonic Team in development, Sonic Team is making Frontiers, you are grasping for straws.

Also it wouldn't change much anyway, Sonic Maniac just made over 1 million and needed 3 releases to do so. It's still a clear downward trend for the 3D games in sales, and it took 3 releases of a game based off nostalgia looking like a Genesis game to even hit 1 million in a reasonable time. These aren't issues other supposedly big franchises deal with.

Sonic 3 and Knuckles did 4 million combined, I'd like to see if a major Sonic game can even sell 4 million by itself.

Your thread talks exactly about Sonic games, not Sonic games made by Sonic Team. Sonic Team "helped", they didn't actually make the game.
Also Mania still sold well for a Sonic game, regardless of deflecting/diminishing you make. The game had good reception as well by the critics, so its not like one of those cases that Sonic sold well despite mixed reviews.

 

[Fahdis]

Sonic was an endearing cool mascot. He's now a joke in the gaming world because of how incompetent the Sonic Team is.

 

[ChorizoPicozo]

Do we know if is coming to game pass day one?

 

[Saber]

Do we know if is coming to game pass day one?

Honest question(not about Sonic), do games are not announced for Gamepass like they do to all plataforms or is something people have to find out themselves?

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

I have this weird feeling that it will be the fastest selling Sonic game in history... I don't know why...

Considering how the first game sold that's near impossible. It was like 4 million or more in its first full year.

That would actually be a concerning amount, one that would be unprecedented, Sonic Hype after a down trend for a game that doesn't seem to be generating that much buzz, seems to have some questionable design decisions, and ideas from other games. But it would also come back and probably kill the franchise on the gaming side because if the game turns out to be bad the amount of people who would have brought it would be tenfold.

One thing that saved the franchise with Sonic 2006 and revitalized with Sonic Unleashed was that the fast sales were slowed down to a crawl, and many people didn't end up experiencing the game, many only saw it on various video upload sites. But if you have over 4 million people buying the fastest selling Sonic game sucked into the hype, that creates a lot more damage for the brand if the game is bad, than if it sold under 1 million copies. The fans would be pissed, the gamers would discard the franchise, the potential new fans or kids would spindash far away from the franchise outside of movies and toys.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Also Mania still sold well for a Sonic game,

No it didn't, it just did better than the bottom of the barrel. But needed much effort to accomplish it. All games on the list involve Sonic Team so you're other point is pointless. The issues clear, you think Mania was removed because you think it sold well, it didn't. With much effort, it eventually produced a speed bump tot he downhill drive the franchise is going, and then Forces went right back on track.

The question is, is Forces the bottom? Will Sonic Frontiers NEED to be put on Gamepass and PS Plus to have people play it like Forces? that's the question.

 

[Saber]

No it didn't, it just did better than the bottom of the barrel. But needed much effort to accomplish it. All games on the list involve Sonic Team so you're other point is pointless. The issues clear, you think Mania was removed because you think it sold well, it didn't. With much effort, it eventually produced a speed bump tot he downhill drive the franchise is going, and then Forces went right back on track.

Lmfao, now I know what I'm dealing with.

Ok whatever floats your crack pot. My god lmao xD

 

[Miles708]

The movies will have a MASSIVE impact on sales.

 

[Astral Dog]

its gonna sell well because the Sonic movies were big hits and brought in a lot of new Sonic fans, and the ancient fans think Frontier looks interesting and are gonna buy it in droves

but we cant tell exact numbers yet because there are still some unknowns. the last Sonic game was reviewed harshly,how much SEGA is gonna spend marketing this game,if Nintendo or other companies are gonna help out,etc. if it gets 80+Metacritic i have no doubt Frontiers is gonna be very popular, even with titles like God of War or Pokemon around.the Sonic brand is strong , its not just some indie or oscure game.

 

[fart town usa]

The movies will have a MASSIVE impact on sales.

Off topic but still disappointed at how bad the sequel was. First movie is legit fun and charming for what it is. Sequel was such a let down for me in terms of eating popcorn and being entertained.

 

[Miles708]

Off topic but still disappointed at how bad the sequel was. First movie is legit fun and charming for what it is. Sequel was such a let down for me in terms of eating popcorn and being entertained.

You think? I thought it was very enjoyable for the most part. Yeah it's a classic hero adventure and not a "buddy cop" anymore, but i thought it had good rhythm and good scenes.

 

[fart town usa]

Yea, I mean I can't trash it too much considering it's a movie for children, lol. I just thought the script was incredibly weak in comparison to the first. First movie seemed to have a lot of care and effort whereas the 2nd one really just felt like a phoning it in type sequel to me.

It's all good though, I'll probably see the 3rd when it releases cause it is fun to see Sonic on the big screen and the lead guy is always entertaining. Good charismatic actor.

 

[Liamario]

Those sales figures are abysmal. Considering the fanbase. Sonic 1 to Sonic 2 was an incredible drop in sales. How did Sonic Mania do?

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Lmfao, now I know what I'm dealing with.

Ok whatever floats your crack pot. My god lmao xD

Just ignore those fact clearly shown in the OP if you want. Most companies would restructure or close studios with that type of performance, and Sonic Mania needed 3 releases and was a fan game relying on nostalgia to even hit one million. Those aren't good sales for a series touted as a major gaming franchise and a mascot of a company.

But as with most Sonic fans you can't see the wood for trees.

 

[Oddvintagechap]

3 million lifetime.

 

[Shubh_C63]

Yeah slightly over 1 Million.

Don't forget many 3D platformers started cropping up in recent years so maybe...

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

The movies will have a MASSIVE impact on sales.

But if they didn't after they came out, why would they now long after they released? I keep seeing people say this and that's fine to a point, but if it would do that much for this game why didn't they do much for the other console releases?

Those sales figures are abysmal. Considering the fanbase. Sonic 1 to Sonic 2 was an incredible drop in sales. How did Sonic Mania do?

It managed with two releases and Mania plus to reach over 1 million according to those keeping track of Sega reports, but there hasn't been an update for a long time and it took some time for Mania to get there.

So even with praise and a nostalgia pull Sonic had an uphill sales battle, that's why I'm wondering how some people are throwing around 2 million, 2 million is revitalization level sales for the Sonic franchise. I mean I'm not going to say it's impossible but what does Sonic Frontiers have going for it? The first movie is old, the 2nd movie came out awhile ago and that boat has sailed, and neither movie led to a big uptick in sonic game sales increasing going off Sega's reports (for non-mobile games) so I'm not seeing what Sonic Frontiers has that would make over 2 million people buy it, especially in a short time frame.

It's a game that's had mixed messaging, some odd reveals, lacks of transparency, one of the Sonic team guys being tone death with fans, take elements ripped right from BOTW, and other games, half the builds people have played or they have shown are old. I'm not seeing much buzz amongst casual audiences about the game, and there seems to be pretty lukewarm marketing.

I don't see it, especially given the sales trend.

Unless Sega has some surprises planned before launch that'll get casuals or parents to buy Sonic in droves I think that the BEST target one could aim for is hoping in a few years it toucher 1 million.

Yeah slightly over 1 Million.

Don't forget many 3D platformers started cropping up in recent years so maybe...

Yeah but how did they sell?

Crash Nsane was again outlier and the second best selling platformer last gen after Mario odyssey. Sonic has generally sold worse than Crash since 1996 when the first Crash came out. Sonic will never see sales like that outside the first game. (or teaming up with Mario for the first time in the Olympic games in a cross-over spin-off.), outside some downloaded indies that catch on, A level or higher platform games don't seem to be lighting the charts on fire. I'm surprise that Kirby game on Switch sold 3 million though, but Sonic Frontiers getting to 3 million would be a miracle, if they were able to sell at that level in a short time (less than 2 years) it would probably end post 5 million. That's a scenario I don't see happening.

I think with price cuts, decent ads, and an ok score, it can just reach over 1 million as you say in 3 years or so.

 

[Ristifer]

I think it'll sell extremely well, if only due to it riding the success of the movies.

I still don't expect it to be all that good as an actual game, but I'd love to be proven wrong. I want a really good modern Sonic game, honestly. I just have zero faith in Sonic Team.

 

[Miles708]

But if they didn't after they came out, why would they now long after they released? I keep seeing people say this and that's fine to a point, but if it would do that much for this game why didn't they do much for the other console releases?.

Don't forget this is the first game coming out after the movies hit the theatres (well, there is sonic colours remastered but even fans ignored that one).

Of course Sonic comes out around Christmas because that's when parents buy presents, and with the memory of the movie still fresh in children's brains, it's not a stretch to think it will have an impact.

For the actual numbers though... i have no idea lol. I'd say around 2 millions would be a success. Yakuza routinely sells around 1 million or less and that granted continuous sequels and was considered a success internally.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Don't forget this is the first game coming out after the movies hit the theatres (well, there is sonic colours remastered but even fans ignored that one).

there were no bumps for the franchise after either movie, and Sonic Colors Ultimate 9which actually charted unlike forces despite the bad wom) and Sonic Orgiins, which includes the Michael Jackson free version of Sonic 3, both came out after, I do not see casuals or movie kids running out and buying those two games, or any other Sonic games, which both had better marketing campaigns so far than Forces, which comes out in 2 months.

So i don't understand this logic of the movies somehow giving Sonic short term revitalized sales, in fact, if anything the daage that both Origins and Colors Ultimate has caused due to them being rushe,d broken, and unfinished with several issues will probably invalidate whatever if any, boost the movies may have given Sonic Frontiers.

Of course Sonic comes out around Christmas because that's when parents buy presents, and with the memory of the movie still fresh in children's brains, it's not a stretch to think it will have an impact.

The Dec date was rolled back, Sonic is coming out Nov 8th the same time as 12 other big games and a bunch of middling games which is usually not a smart idea and is something Sega used to avoid. It is going to be slaughtered.

For the actual numbers though... i have no idea lol. I'd say around 2 millions would be a success. Yakuza routinely sells around 1 million or less and that granted continuous sequels and was considered a success internally.

A series known for reusing assets, and engines with a B movie budget that was always targeting the same demographic is different than Sonic, the mascot of Sega, the game for everyone and is supposed to be a massive game franchise. yet when you look at the chart, Sonic is actually hasn't been that much of a blockbuster since the first two games. 2 million isn't something that can simply be done even if it does actually happen, it would take years, good wom, and discounts to get there, and that's if it can.

I've seem some predictions at 4 or 5 million sales and wonder how people can expect Sonic to go beyond sales it hasn't seen since 1993 with two combined releases. It would be a big success just to sell more than Shadow the Hedgehog.

 

[Eddie-Griffin]

Sonic Frontiers critic reviews

Metacritic aggregates music, game, tv, and movie reviews from the leading critics. Only Metacritic.com uses METASCORES, which let you know at a glance how each item was reviewed.

www.metacritic.com

73 on MC dropping from 74. I think that because of the hype people fell for that 1 million MAY be possible. But I can't see much more than that, 2 million or above is likely no dice.