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Deleted member 231381
Unconfirmed Member
We're going to have to wait on some prod results. Apologies to everyone who has kept up with things.
The sun is shining, the birds are singing, and it looks to be a wonderful morning. The tourists wander outside to admire the scenic Sicilian scenes, before noticing something rather fantastic: each and every one of them had made it, to the man. Surely a case for breaking out the dwindling supplies of champagne if there ever was one!
Is it a possibility that the mafia chose not to act last night, or are we confident we blocked them?
It seems weird that given so much of the protection talk was in public, that they wouldn't pick off a random straggler anyway?
. This leads me to believe that the mafia do have an OPTION not to kill, similar to our "no Lynch". It's possible the second killer also just flat has an option to kill or not kill each night.Each night phase, one of the Mafia-aligned player may kill one of the non-Mafia-aligned players by PMing me with the command KILL: Crab.
Enough with the bullshit. I'm going with my guts. He earlier had no problem lynching, later claimed he wanted to cause a tie regarding Kalor and started to vote against lynching, probably to draw away attention from him. If someone can convince me otherwise, go ahead. I'm well aware this puts me in the spotlight, but I've been passive for the past days and every time we ended up lynching someone innocent.
VOTE: Lord of Castamere
I have been saying since day 2 that I think one of the night time killers either has a kill restriction (for example: every other night). This night makes that theory kinda tough to still work on. The nights where one or less people were killed (I am counting duress's first hit as a two night kill) are nights 2, 4, and 5. No deaths last night throws off my main theory, which had been that the second killer could only target every other night. The only restriction that still works (as opposed to just having an option to kill, see below) for that second killer I can think of now is, you can only target someone if you did not target a player the previous night (which allows for two 1/no death nights in a row).
Looking at Crab's verbiage for the "mafia goon" in the OP, he states
. This leads me to believe that the mafia do have an OPTION not to kill, similar to our "no Lynch". It's possible the second killer also just flat has an option to kill or not kill each night.
I think until Karkador says who he targeted and Quantumbro says if he did anything I don't think we can make any assumptions on whether we blocked 1 kill, somehow 2 kills or if the two killers just didn't target anyone.
Truthfully, I am a bit worried about the deaths, or lack there of. I think the mafia may have done this just so that we throw some shade on Karkador, Quantum and ultron? The first thing I thought was if Karkador could not protect himself, and he is still alive, why isn't someone that quantum switched dead.
Alternatively, there may be a mafia role that prevents it from dieing in nighttime kills. It would be the only way to hide from the second killer if they are town, so that the only way to "WIN" the game is to lynch the final mafia person. That would mean that one of the killers targeted the person that quantum switched with and the newly targeted person's ability saved them.
Sorry I didn't respond till now, been busy and I kinda assumed I was dead so I din't check the thread.
As for last night, I switched Karkador with a random person, like I said I would. Since nobody died, I'm starting to think that one of the killers might not be in the Mafia, since it would help explain why no one died last night.
who did you switch karkador with? we need to consider everything.
Exactly what I'm thinking. There's got to be some kind of blocking role, and multiple people probably have it.What would they gain by not acting during the night?
I can't imagine a scenario where the Mafia choosing to take a night off makes any sense. They have the advantage in information already and are gaining in numbers with every death. Why would they give us a free night to catch up even a little bit? Even if they didn't want to risk a boomerang kill by choosing someone that is supposedly getting switched there is still a large number of town people who are more under the radar and should be able to be safely killed.
I think the second killer being based on some unknown condition is looking like more and more of a possibility. Maybe they need to know what role someone has or something like that to kill?
I tried to save Kalor and Arm0x. I had strong suspicions that they both were innocent. I tried directly causing a tie with Johnny but ended up killing him. My decision to switch to no lynch was because of that. I fully expected us to have some sort of guidance from a roled town by this point, and other accusations have amounted to nothing.
If you want to lynch me for trying to save innocent town people go right ahead.
Traube, Since Quantum switched you and Karkador, did you receive anything during the night?
I agree. No kills tonight is really, really weird.
Let's assume for a minute that Kark had a perfect guess in protecting someone. Great. Kark still can't protect himself from another kill unless QuantumBro switched him, which if he did, someone else randomly would've died.
The only scenarios I can think of are:
Mafia Targets
Possibility #1: Mafia has only one kill tonight (or only used one kill)
N5: ?A? (Protected by Kark)
Comments: Could not have been Kark, he cannot target himself.
Possibility #2: Mafia has both kills
N5: ?A? (Protected by Kark), Kark (switched by QuantumBro for ?B?)
Comments: ?B? was protected by someone else, or has an ability to survive a hit.
Possibility #3: Mafia decides on no kills
N5: N/A
Comments: Makes Kark, QuantumBro and ultron look like liars.
P3 could be a double bluff. If that's the case and they didn't kill anyone on purpose, it's equally likely that they were trying to "prove" Kark, Quantum and Ultron were telling the truth by disallowing kill, but miscalculated that one kill is mysteriously missing OR they knew we would question the missing kill and start questioning if all three of them were telling the truth.
Honestly, I'm leaning towards P1 at the moment. I think mafia have the capability of killing two people, but possibly not every night. Or they decided against it last night, for whatever reason. Kark guessed right (probably picking QuantumBro or Ultron), and we succeeded in preventing any kills.
If Kark and QuantumBro could chime in with who they targeted last night, that would be awesome.
I mean I've had really little time to follow the game, yet I have more than twice as many posts as RobotNinjaHornets. I'm sorry, but that's suspicious.
Other players that have been somewhat inactive, although I haven't checked their post history to see if they ever did something noteworthy:
Rembrandt - 13
AbsolutBro - 15
MattyG - 16
tomakasatnav - 20
ultron87 - 25
Of those posters, three (MattyG,tomakasatnav,ultron87) received a prod. I assume that those players, unless it's a strategy, have posted little because maybe their roles are unimportant (or so special they wanna survive). That leaves Rembrandt and AbsolutBro as two other posters that have posted very, very little. I have not yet checked whether they ever did something controversial/attention-drawing, but they're also high on the list.
I propose therefore that we start with RobotNinjaHornets, unless he can defend himself or someone can bring up a good argument why we shouldn't lynch him.
VOTE: RobotNinjaHornets
I've given it a lot of thought and I've come to the conclusion that, among others, RobotNinjaHornets is one of the most suspicious players in the game. He has the least posts of all active players (unless I missed something) and his posts have been (from what I can tell) utterly useless or unimportant. There is no indication whatsoever that he has a special (tourist) role, otherwise he would've at least given us an indication, either directly or indirectly. As I claimed earlier, it is extremely benefitial to stay out of the limelight and not draw any attention and he has always posted (at least once), but never took any clear or controversial position. See who we lynched: Not a single completely inactive player, even Amir0x was more active. Every time we were wrong and since we "focused" on suspicous behavior, we neglected those that were truly suspicious.
In short:No hints, no constructive posts or debate, just a minimum of posts to not get a notification, he perfectly fits into what I would expect a mafia member to do. The similar argument by the way applies to other extremely inactive/"hiding" posters as well.
VOTE: RobotNinjaHornets
I've given it a lot of thought and I've come to the conclusion that, among others, RobotNinjaHornets is one of the most suspicious players in the game. He has the least posts of all active players (unless I missed something) and his posts have been (from what I can tell) utterly useless or unimportant. There is no indication whatsoever that he has a special (tourist) role, otherwise he would've at least given us an indication, either directly or indirectly. As I claimed earlier, it is extremely benefitial to stay out of the limelight and not draw any attention and he has always posted (at least once), but never took any clear or controversial position. See who we lynched: Not a single completely inactive player, even Amir0x was more active. Every time we were wrong and since we "focused" on suspicous behavior, we neglected those that were truly suspicious.
In short:No hints, no constructive posts or debate, just a minimum of posts to not get a notification, he perfectly fits into what I would expect a mafia member to do. The similar argument by the way applies to other extremely inactive/"hiding" posters as well.
I mean I've had really little time to follow the game, yet I have more than twice as many posts as RobotNinjaHornets. I'm sorry, but that's suspicious.
Other players that have been somewhat inactive, although I haven't checked their post history to see if they ever did something noteworthy:
Rembrandt - 13
AbsolutBro - 15
MattyG - 16
tomakasatnav - 20
ultron87 - 25
Of those posters, three (MattyG,tomakasatnav,ultron87) received a prod. I assume that those players, unless it's a strategy, have posted little because maybe their roles are unimportant (or so special they wanna survive). That leaves Rembrandt and AbsolutBro as two other posters that have posted very, very little. I have not yet checked whether they ever did something controversial/attention-drawing, but they're also high on the list.
I propose therefore that we start with RobotNinjaHornets, unless he can defend himself or someone can bring up a good argument why we shouldn't lynch him.
Well this isn't good. No, I don't post much, and I do keep intending to post more (and probably will after this >_>), but between difficulties keeping up with the thread and not really having any major thoughts when I do catch up, it's kind of hard to come up with useful posts. Doesn't help that I'm normally super self-conscious when posting anyway, let alone somewhere where all my posts are being put under scrutiny. I mean, at this point we still haven't really got anywhere yet. We've only killed tourists so far, and it hasn't exactly been based on a whole lot each time. Hell, look at the egruntz situation, that seemed to happen basically because he was being a bit of a dick. Surely you can see why I'd show a bit of precaution.
Not sure I quite understand what your point about the prods is here, it seems like you're saying that people who've been prodded are less suspicious. Why would a prod make someone less suspicious? Or have I just completely misunderstood?
Karkador did something that made little sense for a doctor to do, revealing himself with little prompting. Also, the only way for his story to get countered would be for a real doctor to stand up, which is probably a net win for the Mafia. The fact that he didn't die last night seems even more suspicious.
I mean I've had really little time to follow the game, yet I have more than twice as many posts as RobotNinjaHornets. I'm sorry, but that's suspicious.
Other players that have been somewhat inactive, although I haven't checked their post history to see if they ever did something noteworthy:
Rembrandt - 13
AbsolutBro - 15
MattyG - 16
tomakasatnav - 20
ultron87 - 25
Of those posters, three (MattyG,tomakasatnav,ultron87) received a prod. I assume that those players, unless it's a strategy, have posted little because maybe their roles are unimportant (or so special they wanna survive). That leaves Rembrandt and AbsolutBro as two other posters that have posted very, very little. I have not yet checked whether they ever did something controversial/attention-drawing, but they're also high on the list.
I propose therefore that we start with RobotNinjaHornets, unless he can defend himself or someone can bring up a good argument why we shouldn't lynch him.
Robot, I totally understand your concerns, since I share them about QuantumBro and Karkador. I know that they have roles that target, but have no real confidence that they both have the roles that they claimed. QuantumBro has a less than common role that we only know exists because he has told us that.
Karkador did something that made little sense for a doctor to do, revealing himself with little prompting. Also, the only way for his story to get countered would be for a real doctor to stand up, which is probably a net win for the Mafia. The fact that he didn't die last night seems even more suspicious.
They've both fit into the information I presented, but either one could just be using the fact that they know I have their names on a list to try and provide legitimacy.
Don't get me wrong, it's not that I don't understand you, but I think we need a change of strategy and you fit most criteria on how I would play as mafia. You're simply the most likely candidate based on that, even if normally I would have other players on my list.
I didn't really express myself very well. I didn't want to accuse everyone with few posts and I haven't had the time (or nerve) to go through the entire thread and read up on what all of you posted. Then I noticed that the three living players with the least posts didn't have a prod. Why is that? How come those people posted the least, but always enough not to get a prod? My idea is that those getting a prod simply forgot posting, which I would assume the mafia (or those with special roles) would not, especially if they have another place to discuss things. It is not a general "mafia/no mafia" criteria, one would have to go through the post history to get a better conclusion, but it stuck out to me and it would make sense. Not to mention getting a prod draws attention.
Ah right, yeah I see what you're going for. It kind of makes sense, but I feel like it doesn't quite work for accusing people who haven't been prodded. I haven't forgotten about the game, I just haven't known what to actually post. The two times I've voted for someone (Kalor and Amir0x) were two times when I thought people definitely looked suspicious, but even then those wasn't based on a whole lot of information. Ami was based on odd posting, which I thought could be him pretending to be bad at the game (when it turns out he actually was bad). And now that I think about it, Kalor was because Quantum claimed the switch happened. I wasn't convinced until that happened, and none of it was because of Kalor himself. He got placed in an unfortunate situation, and we all pounced on him.
So potential series of events given my latest train of thought:
People are suspicious of Kalor
The mafia kill Ward
Quantum claims he got a message saying "Switch: Ward and Kalor", framing him
This makes Kalor look super suspicious, and he gets lynched
A couple of game days later, after it's not as fresh in our minds, Ultron reveals that he's been watching people each night but doesn't say who he saw targeting each person
Quantum reveals that he did the switch, and who he switched each night, except every night other than the supposed Kalor/Ward switch had no visible effect
No-one dies that night
Quantum and Kark can claim that they protected each other and Ultron and it worked
Gain trust from everyone
...this makes too much sense to me.
VOTE: QuantumBro
Karkador I keep going back and forth on. He claims he is the doctor, and he hasn't yet died. We know he cannot protect himself, yet at the same time we know that on the days he (claims) to have protected people, there have been limited deaths. For example, the night he protected me, I did not die even though two other people targeted me (likely, one of them a killer). This doesn't necessarily prove anything, as there could be no killer present in that mix, but the question still remains: if there was no threat on my life that night where did the 2nd kill go?
However, here's where it gets weird. Why didn't the mafia go after Karkador? Even if QuantumBro did indeed switch Karkador for someone else, the mafia would still have at least made a kill. They know that Kark couldn't protect himself. They also know that QuantumBro was likely going to switch him. However, they did not know who Kark was planning to protect, but could've likely guessed Ultron. It seems like it would've been in mafia's best interest to target Kark anyway, likely get him switched for someone else town, and the end. The only reason for them not to do this is if they were worried about quantumbro switching Kark for a mafia, which would be highly unlikely. Therefore, I think if Kark is the doc, he would have been targeted last night.
This leads me to three possible conclusions:
a) Karkador was protected by a third party
b) Karkador is mafia
c) Someone is lying
I think that there is a legit reason why the mafia did not target Karkador last night (or at least why karkador did not die). Karkador stated he can not target the same person two nights in a row, and on night 5 he COULD have protected himself. for that reason the mafia may have thrown their votes another direction (or not voted), thinking they can get Kark to waste his save on himself and get him the next night. If they voted last night, I think they vote for the same person tonight. They know its a guaranteed hit. If they didn't vote last night, they will vote for Karkador thinking he protected himself last night and will be a good chance of a death.
All of this theory hinges on that the second killer either COULD not kill that night or chose not to kill that night. The only way either of those is not the case is if Traube can not be night time killed. Ultron says he switched karkador with Traube. If this is true, it means that if Karkador targeted someone else last night and was target by the mafia, Traube should have died (unless he has that no nighttime death role). This leads me to believe that Karkador protected himself last night, and instead of dieing after being switched Traube lived.
If the second killer did act last night... well then... that changes everything...
Wait a minute...he said he healed himself. I could've sworn that there was a mention that this was impossible.
N1, Myself, N2 Timeaisis, N3 Myself, N4 Palmer
Ultron, I don't like that we have to keep arguing about this, despite how clear it is that I'm trying to help you. I backed you up because I think your story checks out, and I want the Town to have something they can rely on. Again, if I had not backed you up, it would have only made you persecute me harder, anyway - and if I had not backed you up, you wouldn't seem as credible to other players.
Let me put this another way - if I was mafia, I probably would have killed you already. Sorry to be blunt about that, but I'm much more interested in having you live.