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Major East Coast Storm to Hit Mid-Atlantic and New England Tuesday

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Mully

Member
***Update***

Blizzard conditions are extremely likely according to the latest models. Heavy snow is expected from Monday afternoon to Wednesday afternoon up and down the I-95 corridor. 12-24" of snow is expected.

Below are National Weather Service accumulation forecasts for NYC and Boston metro areas.

StormTotalSnowFcst.png

StormTotalSnowRange.png


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Too early to say how much, but the models are showing major accumulations and wind for Tuesday and Wednesday as a Nor'easter develops along the coast later this week. Blizzard conditions possible from Central New Jersey all the way up to Maine. As we get closer to Monday, we'll know more about how much snow, how strong the system will be, and the duration of the storm as the higher resolution models begin to work within accurate ranges (less than 48 hours). With that said, for the past day, every model from the Euro, to the GFS, to the NAM, and the Canadian have predicted very similar outcomes for the East Coast.

Below is an image of the storm at its projected peak strength according to the latest run of one of the American models, the GFS, Tuesday afternoon.

 

JCizzle

Member
Too early to say how much, but the models are showing major accumulations and wind for Tuesday and Wednesday as a Nor'easter develops along the coast later this week. Blizzard conditions possible from Central New Jersey all the way up to Maine. As we get closer to Monday, we'll know more about how much snow, how strong the system will be, and the duration of the storm as the higher resolution models begin to work within accurate ranges (less than 48 hours). With that said, for the past day, every model from the Euro, to the GFS, to the NAM, and the Canadian have predicted very similar outcomes for the East Coast.

Below is an image of the storm at its projected peak strength according to the latest run of one of the American models, the GFS, Tuesday afternoon.

Aren't the American models shit compared to the Euro one? I keep reading that we're years behind due to a lack of investments in our supercomputers.
 

Mully

Member
Let's wait until the midnight runs.

Euro shows 30 inches.

The other two show 1-2 inches

Way too early to say how much definitively, but the runs have been pretty consistent for 24 hours now. It's a little surprising since there's not much in the way of blocking and the NAO is positive, but I'll take it.

Aren't the American models shit compared to the Euro one? I keep reading that we're years behind due to a lack of investments in our supercomputers.

Not really. The Euro is a good model system overall, but it has its issues with certain types of setups. I used the American one because I'm cheap and don't want to pay $60/year for weather models. The American models are decent, but normally slow to pick up on systems called out by the Euro a day or two earlier.
 
The Euro was the huge outlier in this case (at least for me) because it showed my area getting 20-30 inches of snow. Everything else is sub 12 inches.

That said it's really important when the clipper and another storm merge off the coast. The sooner that happens the more snow for Philly/NYC.

Boston and other areas of New England tho, prepare your butts.
 

Petrae

Member
This has been interesting to follow. NWS Boston all but dismissed this storm as of 36 hours ago, but have now come on board with a "severe, long-duration winter storm". HPC is showing heavy accums eastern MA/RI, but lesser amounts north and west. Models seem to be trending north and west with the storm track, which would push the heaviest snow axis inland a bit more.

Will be interesting to follow as a weather fan over the next 36-48 hours, though I'd personally like to see the storm move further east and spare me more snow-shoveling here in western Mass.
 

vatstep

This poster pulses with an appeal so broad the typical restraints of our societies fall by the wayside.
Hoping for a snow day on Tuesday so I can watch the Super Bowl Media Day insanity.
 

Mully

Member
This has been interesting to follow. NWS Boston all but dismissed this storm as of 36 hours ago, but have now come on board with a "severe, long-duration winter storm". HPC is showing heavy accums eastern MA/RI, but lesser amounts north and west. Models seem to be trending north and west with the storm track, which would push the heaviest snow axis inland a bit more.

Will be interesting to follow as a weather fan over the next 36-48 hours, though I'd personally like to see the storm move further east and spare me more snow-shoveling here in western Mass.

Yeah this came out of nowhere. It went from a possible weak nor'easter last week, then switched over to a storm that would develop too far south and east, and now it's a coastal hugger with a sub 980 low 100 miles east of Montauk.

It shows how volatile the models can be sometime, but the setup is there for such a system given how deep the trough will be at the start of this week.
 

maxcriden

Member
Am I reading this correctly that Central-Northern VT won't be hit too bad, or is it modeling to come that way later on in the storm trajectory?
 

Mully

Member
Am I reading this correctly that Central-Northern VT won't be hit too bad, or is it modeling to come that way later on in the storm trajectory?

Northern VT is likely too far north and west right now, but we'll see.

The latest NAM, a higher resolution, but shorter range model (it does shitty outside of 48-54 hours) says the storm is further east this run, but we'll really have to wait until the Euro comes in at midnight EST tonight.
 
Thankfully, I have Tuesday off. I like some snow, but hate blizzards. Hopefully, everyone who has to be out on the roads stays safe, driving in these conditions is not fun.
 

maxcriden

Member
Northern VT is likely too far north and west right now, but we'll see.

The latest NAM, a higher resolution, but shorter range model (it does shitty outside of 48-54 hours) says the storm is further east this run, but we'll really have to wait until the Euro comes in at midnight EST tonight.

Roger that. Thanks Mully!
 

samven582

Member
Too early to say how much, but the models are showing major accumulations and wind for Tuesday and Wednesday as a Nor'easter develops along the coast later this week. Blizzard conditions possible from Central New Jersey all the way up to Maine. As we get closer to Monday, we'll know more about how much snow, how strong the system will be, and the duration of the storm as the higher resolution models begin to work within accurate ranges (less than 48 hours). With that said, for the past day, every model from the Euro, to the GFS, to the NAM, and the Canadian have predicted very similar outcomes for the East Coast.

Below is an image of the storm at its projected peak strength according to the latest run of one of the American models, the GFS, Tuesday afternoon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-W6as8oVcuM
 

hythloday

Member
Euro model apparently has it tracking further west, putting Delaware/Philly in the heavy snow zone, but it might be an outlier. I don't have much hope, but a snow day would sure be nice!
 

gdt

Member
Goddamit. According to the pic in the OP I'm just getting an inch or two. No big deal.

I hope that's all. This winter has been great. My bmw sucks holy ass in the snow.
 
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