Vigilant Walrus
Member
Isn't the Japanese people also incredible pacifistic in nature? I recall haring about mass protests over their new Army a month ago or so!?
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Majority in China expect war with Japan by 2020
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Isn't the Japanese people also incredible pacifistic in nature? I recall haring about mass protests over their new Army a month ago or so!?
Kenshin001
Member
Doesn't preclude China from acting aggressively though. Chinese seem to have a lot of wounded pride and almost desperation to prove they are not the puny kid who can be pushed around anymore. I think a lot of Chinese are itching to give Japan and the West a little payback for the humiliation they've endured. All it takes is one little incident and things escalate. If a Japanese vessel accidentally hit a Chinese boat and someone went overboard and drowned, something like that. Chinese would be baying for blood.
Forgotten_Taco
Member
Chinese/Russian ties aren't really that close.
Russia is not a communist/socialist state and for all intents and purposes neither is China. Russia and China are not exactly good buddies, neither is going to go to bat for the other.
chung_sao_ming
Member
Russia and China hate each other. I dont see Russia entering a war with Japan, not least for the fact that if Russia joins the US will definately join Japan, and this could very easily become WW3.
If Russia stays out then this would probably be a much smaller war. Also Russia can sit on the side and Supply China with lots of oil, gas and industry and get rich.
HammerOfThor
Member
Excuse my ignorance, but I thought Japan didn't really have much a military because of all WWII stuff? Did something change?
By that logic wouldn't countries like Britain, Australia, Canada etc enter such a war as well since they are allies of both the US and Japan? You can basically call it then WWlll.
They have a self defense force that is certainly up to date military wise with most other countries. However they don't have pure military numbers to last long in a battle with China which is why the US has obligated themselves to protect Japan.
I don't think it would happen if push came to shove. Just like the US didn't defend their defense treaty ally The Philippines when China took over rocks that The Philippines formerly administered.
Obviously, China's dream scenario is for Taiwan to invade the rocks, like Taiwan had previously planned to do. It would certainly put the US in a interesting predicament.
Triplicates
Member
They maintain a very formidable defense force. The real limitations are on the types of weapons in the arsenal, kinds of actions they may take when engaged in combat, and a self-imposed moratorium on arms exports which will soon be lifted.
CharminUltra
Member
"Release Gojira!"
The SDF is very robust and extremely advanced despite their peacekeeping and defensive purposes. Lately though they have been rumbling about breaking free from their "defense only" political restraints citing their need to protect their sphere of influence.
Well then you're naive as that would essentially lose any American influence in the Pacific. Not to mention the U.S. has already said that the treaty includes the current boundry disputes between the two nations.
Phoenician_Viking
Banned
China is not Russia either. China is a huge trading partner for the US and a source of growth for the global economy. A war with China will wreck hell on the world´s economy.
Eh? The bases can be put on hold.
It´s cute that you think that the US will jeopardize its own economic health and wealth because of Japan. Let me remind you that China is the largest holder of US debt.
http://www.ibtimes.com/top-10-foreign-holders-us-debt-china-japan-still-lead-1511752
China is a huge trading partner for the US. And let me remind you that a lot of US industry juggernauts have factories in China/contracts to manufacture goods with Chinese partners.
The US will not jeopardize all of these economic interests for Japan. The US has too much to lose if the US goes to war with China.
China has territorial disputes Japan, India, Vietnam and the Phillipines.
Basically a lot of the neighbors.
Ace Harding
Member
There is zero chance of a full-scale war between the two countries with forces fully deployed and battles raging in multiple locations in 6 years. And no chance the US military gets involved. Much more likely there will be additional diplomatic skirmishes and worst case scenario a very small scale military conflict that gets nipped in the bud through international diplomacy and hard, tough negotiations.
Source: I am an expert
Source: I am an expert
If China goes to war with Japan the number 3 economy that will already wreck the world's economy. You have to be naive to think that the US with all it's troops, bases in japan and multiple reiterated pledges would just let China trample over Japan.
It's cute that you think the U.S. would just standby and let China run run roughshod over Japan. Also China in not the largest holder of debt. They are the largest foreign owner.
They also have treaty obligations to defend the Ukraine (Budapest Memorandum) and The Philippines (Mutual Defense Treaty). I think the former has probably affected American influence a bit, I don't know if you consider the latter to have resulted in any meaningful loss of influence for the US.
I don't think Americans care about unpopulated rocks in the sea. They didn't care about Syrians being gassed or Ukraine being invaded, and they sure as hell didn't care about China taking over the Scarborough Shoal from the Philippines.
I don't think I am naive to say that Americans would not be interested in a war over a bunch of unpopulated rocks in the East China Sea.
GTP_Daverytimes
Member
You Mean Japan which is the SECOND LARGEST foreign holder of US debt? That Japan?
If this happened it would probably be a distraction to hit Taiwan or for North Korea to act stupid. If North Korea jumped in then we're looking at a lot of logistical and military challenges for the USA and the allies.
Japan has the strongest air force and navy among Asian nations. Their submarines are second only to the USA. And they have advanced defense networks.
Japan has the strongest air force and navy among Asian nations. Their submarines are second only to the USA. And they have advanced defense networks.
I don't think anyone seriously considers those treaty obligations the same as the one with Japan. The US has no troops or bases even stationed in the Philippines or Ukraine.
You are naive if you think that and the Budapest Memorandum was not a treaty.
Triplicates
Member
That's a potential nightmare scenario but in the medium-term, the USA is enough as a stabilising deterrent. Besides, the Chinese leadership has no desire to fight a war. The next few decades are going to be very rough and jarring. They have enough domestic distractions to worry about which is one of the reasons China wants their people to have on their minds a war scare. In my opinion, this is all manufactured by a very cunning CCP government.
Let's hope the Chinese elite don't become beholden to their agitation of nationalist feelings.
Kenshin001
Member
Put the bases on hold? Lol. Either you are trolling or you don't know what you are talking about. On that list Japan is the second biggest holder of debt. A defeat of the Chinese military would mean the end of the CCP and China would be open to a US friendly elected government. Then things go back to the way they were.
Escape Goat
Member
Majority of GAF seemingly expects WW3 anytime an international incident occurs.
Banana Aeon
Member
This isn't going to happen. The US would not dare lose their influence in the Pacific, and China doesn't want to lose trade with the US.
Look at the debt we owe China and then the debt we owe Japan.
Exactly.
It's also worth pointing out that China doesn't really have much of a history of starting wars against foreign states, at least not during modernity. For the most part they have kept to themselves, so it's always a little strange to see people assume them to be would-be aggressors.
Escape Goat
Member
What's the Mandarin equivalent to "u wot m8?" Cause that.
The two will probably be huge dicks to each other for decades to come, but an actual war i just not happening unless a lot of serious shit happens to totally shift the balance of power in the world and break various long standing relations.
The two will probably be huge dicks to each other for decades to come, but an actual war i just not happening unless a lot of serious shit happens to totally shift the balance of power in the world and break various long standing relations.
Fragamemnon
Member
Not defending Japan from an attack on China would be like not defending a full on NATO member from an attack from Russia. The diplomatic fabric and credibility of the USA would be shattered if they didn't honor the strong, decades-long treaty agreement with Japan, and the USA isn't willing to lose that at any cost.
The Budapest Memorandum states that the US and Russia are not allowed to invade Ukraine (respect it's territorial integrity), not that one is forced to defend it if the other one invades. The US has kept its obligations with Ukraine, while Russia has not.
BossLackey
Gold Member
Yeaaahhh, that's not gonna happen
QuicheFontaine
Member
All according to Senkaku
I am not naive to think that Americans do not care about rocks in the East China Sea. Honestly, how are they more important than gassed Syrians, an invaded Ukraine, or the rock disputes elsewhere (Scarborough Shoal, Sansha, James Atoll)?
I think maintaining that the Budapest Memorandum is not a treaty is similar to how the US maintains that the defense of the Senkaku/Diaoyu rocks is an "interpretation" of the Japan defense treaty and that they are "neutral" on the sovereignty of the Senkaku/Diaoyu rocks. It gives the US leeway to talk itself out of action if the need arises.
FireAndBlood
Member
Not happening. Neither country has much to gain from war, while losing so much.
TacticalFox88
Banned
As true as this is, both are well aware of the fact that they stand a much better chance together, than apart.
Enemy of my enemy is my friend, type deal.
Who know, a decade from now they might become closer depending on how things play out.
Triplicates
Member
They have a very full and recent history of being the belligerent in minor confrontations. It comes with the territory of being the ascending power challenging the status quo. If a larger conflict does break out over the Senkakus, it'll begin with an accident over some small provocative gesture on the part of China that would be perfectly in line with the pattern of their recent brushes with Vietnam and the Philippines.
Those "rocks" have historically been administered by Japan. That is not the case with those other examples in their respective countries . They were always in dispute, in recent history anyway.
Also, the U.S. has already "talked" as far as this issue is concerned.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/24/obama-in-japan-backs-status-quo-in-island-dispute-with-china
Vigilant Walrus
Member
1. China, mainland: $1.305 trillion
2. Japan: $1.174 trillion
There is less than 200 millions between their levels of debt, and with Chinas economy being seriously inflated, do you think that would make them choose China?
China does low work in a lower sector that can be replaced by other foreign partners like India, Parkistan. These partners are already becoming more relevant as chinese are descending into middle class statue and demanding higher wages and more rights. In the BRIC you have, Brazil, and South Africa as well. These economies are changing the face of the global economic ecosystem. China is not irreplaceable at all.
Then look at Japan. They are irreplace. Their statue is everywhere, all over the world. It's highly thanks to the US. Post WW2 their car plants were used by the US army to make tanks and persnal crafts for the Korea War. It's their number one bastion in the pacific sea. Seriously. Japan is much more important than China! I mean, it has to be?
It's such a fucked up state of mind. China has over 1.3 billion people, Japan has about 126 million. Over ten times the population! Meanwhile the Chinese have come to accept that they are going to just roll over this much smaller island sooner or later.
And for what? Old scores, grudges, and of course greed.
And for what? Old scores, grudges, and of course greed.
Your link clearly has the Obama administration acknowledging a "dispute" and saying it takes no side in the sovereignty of the rocks. These rocks have been in dispute for a long time, especially "in recent history anyway." Even Taiwan had a military plan ready to go to invade in the 90s.
If the US wanted to be really unequivocal it would actually say it took a side in the dispute, instead of saying they don't take a side. If you follow what Obama has said when further diving into it, he provides even more equivocation by saying the defense of the rocks is an interpretation of the treaty, leaving it open for Congress or another administration to interpret differently.
More Fun To Compute
Member
They invaded Tibet and directly fought against the US army in north Korea. Kissinger changed the diplomatic position China had in the world after that. They are clearly acting as aggressors at the moment against Japan. They are building up a strong propaganda case that they are "in the right" to stand up to Japan enough to annex territory and that isn't a good sign if you like peace.
Chairmanchuck
Member
I still think both sides are in the wrong. Im not talking about who owns the islands of course, but Japanese provoke the Chinese, letting some ultra hardcore nationalists on the island, Abe visits the Yasukini-srhine., some japanese politicians denying the war-crimes.
It feels like playing a ping-pong game about provoking the other nation.
I actually wonder this. But I wonder if its not more about saving face than money. And I am sure a lot of japanese nationalists will be crazy when Japan would accept such a trade.
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