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Majority in China expect war with Japan by 2020
- Thread starter Blablurn
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I think your out of your mind if you think Japan would not do anything.The U.S. never made an assurance about that shoal. The Chinese have made claims about it since AT LEAST the 1930's. This is not the same thing. Why you can't seem to comprehend that I don't know. The U.S. was actually given control of those Japanese islands after WWII and then gave them back to Japan. China did not become interested until oil and gas reserves were found.
Well obviously they wouldn't do that first, they would send in their Coast Guard vessels to either impound the Chinese vessels or escort them out of the area. If the Chinese are escorting the fishing boats with military ships, Japan would deliver an ultimatum. If the Chinese do not comply Japan can very much claim that they are indeed being invaded and act accordingly - with full US support. As for the Philippines, they never responded with force and they never asked the US to join them in a war with China. They accepted that it wasn't worth it and preferred to negotiate while they built a stronger navy, in case China decided to try it again.
I just don't get why you bring up the whole "civilian fishing vessels" ruse as some kind of ultimate move that would leave Japan unable to respond. It really isn't - it's effective against weaker countries that don't actually want a war with you or are unable to conduct one. It's a bully tactic. It doesn't work against Japan because they can back up their outrage with a credible military force.
It's similar to what Russia is up to in Ukraine. They send in "volunteers" with "donated supplies" because they can get away with it, due to the Ukrainian Military not being strong enough to respond. Do you think they could do the same in say Alaska? Of course not.
Yup, despite technically almost being pacifistic according to its constitution, Japan has a military with a budget equal to Germany - they're ranked 8th worldwide. As far as their navy goes there is an argument to be made that it could easily be the second most powerful in the world after the US Navy. (Well, to be fair Russia is technically second, it's just that their assets are split over several fleets spread halfway across the world due the size of the country, so Japan can bring more to bear in a single conflict than the Russians can. I'm also aware that China has more tonnage, but a lot of it is obsolete and they lack naval experience.)
The Albatross
Member
Not worried. You could have asked 1000 people in the US if they expect a war with Russia by 2015, last year, and probably a majority or more would have said yes. Even people strongly against conflict always just assume that those who are in power -- or those who they don't like in power -- are secretly trying to create a war.
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Japan does not have a military still, right?
*edit*
Nope, I'm wrong -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Self-Defense_Forces
Correct me if I'm wrong, but Japan does not have a military still, right?
*edit*
Nope, I'm wrong -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Japan_Self-Defense_Forces
Are you using Wikipedia history now? The Chinese claim dates back to the Treaty of Shimonoseki of 1895, which was nullified by the Treaty of San Francisco in 1951. It's claimed as part of Taiwan, which is why Taiwan claims it itself.
The Chinese have never used military ships in these encounters, so your scenario doesn't ever happen. The US has never called these types of actions the use of force, even when against countries that aren't protected by treaties. I fail to see how they would suddenly agree to bomb civilian vessels because Japan told them to.
Oh right make up things because you can't admit you're wrong and then sidestep the issue. I just looked on wikipedia and that treaty is mentioned so why would I say the 30's? I would have said 1895.
Then what's the problem? The Japanese Coast Guard can deal with that. That what it's for, and they've been doing just that for close to a decade, dealing with both Chinese and Taiwanese intruders. Of course the US doesn't need to be roped in to "bomb civilian vessels", that's crazy talk. I swear it's as if you're assuming that Japan is completely defenseless and needs to run to the US for everything.
Japan is perfectly competent enough to deal with an armada of Chinese "fishing boats" if they need to. They would only need the US Navy if the Chinese decide to do an impromptu reenactment of the Falklands (only with less sheep and more boats).
The UN has been useless for quite some time. It's sad how over the years my opinion has had to change about them but after France went unilateral to deal with the crisis in Mali was the point I had to admit they are toothless.
The UN easily would've been the best force to undercut Russia's "peacekeeping" efforts even with them on the security counsel.
The UN is designed to be toothless. That's the only way that the major powers would stay members. The League of Nations failed because it had too much power - it required nations to involve themselves somehow in military conflicts even if it meant going against their allies. This also kept some nations out - like the isolationist United States - and most of the more aggressive major powers, like Japan and Nazi Germany, simply left.
The UN is supposed to act as a forum where the nations of the world can gather peacefully to discuss current issues in a diplomatic setting. That's it. I must say that it does at least perform that task quite well and has probably helped in averting some conflicts, especially during the Cold War.
Care to guess what would happen if the UN was granted power to forcefully go after Russia over Ukraine? Russia would leave, followed by China and a pretty significant number of smaller states aligned with them. The only nations left would be NATO and other Western-aligned nations and the entire point of the UN would be undone. Let's not even begin to imagine what would have happened if those powers had been in place during the rather illegal US invasion of Iraq.
Godzilla?Problem with that is that there's a certain giant standing right behind Japan.
Everybody knows Rodan is stronger.
Except that's not what the UN needed to do. The UN needed to just send in a force to stabilize the country while the protests ran their coarse. Russia would still have troops in the Ukraine but this time they would be forced to leave after everything settled down because the other countries are also present.
Considering that the UN still provides other benefits such as a forum to hash out the expansion into the arctic territories Russia wouldn't be leaving.
plasmawave
Banned
The size of the Chinese navy is really small which is strange considering how big the rest of their armed forces is.
Does not matter if your army is huge invading Japan means crossing the sea and cleared airspace without that, they can't touch Japan soil.
titiklabingapat
Member
Vietnam and the Philippines have already announced closer economic and military ties, basically an alliance, and there are rumblings that Japan wants in as well, with US backing.
Yeah we will.
whatever77
Banned
Guys calm down.
First of all, China won't invade Japan's islands, lets get that out of the way. It's totally inpractical Secondly China won't nuke Japan. China has no first use policy.
So it comes down to it, in worst case scenario, a conventional nava warfarel. Now lets look at China and Japan weapons. China has about equal sea power with Japan, while Japan is specialize in anti submarine vassels and China has better hands here and there. China OTOH has much better land based fighter planes and mid range missiles.
Now look at China vs US naval. The entire China new weapon development roadmap is base upon the sea denial capability against the US carrier groups. So its going to be a lot of cheap missiles try to scare the expensive carrier groups from entering the east sea and yellow sea.
Will US carrier group risk the chance of getting sunk to enter China's front yard? No I do not think so. Even during the great war, Germany didn't chance taking her mega dreadnoughts to fight against the Brits head to head. So my conclusion is that it will never come to war in the first place. Worst case it will be cuba crisis type of chicken game. Eventually one side will back down before a hot war break out.
And why would China start a war with Japan in 10 years anyway. China has a hell lot of pie to cut in South China Sea. Picking the ASEAN counties apart is a million times easier than face off again Japan so soon. Any ASEAN that's not Vietnam is basically cake walk to China.
First of all, China won't invade Japan's islands, lets get that out of the way. It's totally inpractical Secondly China won't nuke Japan. China has no first use policy.
So it comes down to it, in worst case scenario, a conventional nava warfarel. Now lets look at China and Japan weapons. China has about equal sea power with Japan, while Japan is specialize in anti submarine vassels and China has better hands here and there. China OTOH has much better land based fighter planes and mid range missiles.
Now look at China vs US naval. The entire China new weapon development roadmap is base upon the sea denial capability against the US carrier groups. So its going to be a lot of cheap missiles try to scare the expensive carrier groups from entering the east sea and yellow sea.
Will US carrier group risk the chance of getting sunk to enter China's front yard? No I do not think so. Even during the great war, Germany didn't chance taking her mega dreadnoughts to fight against the Brits head to head. So my conclusion is that it will never come to war in the first place. Worst case it will be cuba crisis type of chicken game. Eventually one side will back down before a hot war break out.
And why would China start a war with Japan in 10 years anyway. China has a hell lot of pie to cut in South China Sea. Picking the ASEAN counties apart is a million times easier than face off again Japan so soon. Any ASEAN that's not Vietnam is basically cake walk to China.
HappyBivouac
Member
Pure sensationalist nonsense. Also, it should come as little surprise that there's a big disconnect between what the Chinese people think and what the government thinks. Heck even in the US that disconnect is pretty big.
Which protests - Maidan or the insurrection in the East? And under what pretense? The UN can only send peacekeepers as an invitation unless they need to act due to blatant aggression - like the Gulf War - or rampant abuse of human rights - like Serbia. And for what goal? Would they be there to defend Yanukovich or to watch while he gets overthrown?
It would be completely impossible to get to a point where Russia and NATO could agree on the course of action because they have completely opposed interests. Hell, China could even oppose it out of principle no matter what objective they arrive at because they are categorically opposed to international involvement in domestic issues.
machemachete
Banned
I used to work with a lot of chinese people (chinese car importing) and they all think this(even if its not historically accurated, they all have the same mentality) :
-Japan used to belong to China
-Korea used to belong to China
-They hate japanese A LOT (they all remember the dates of the japanese invasion)
-China is getting a lot of weapons to invade china and korea soon, the same for taiwan
-They consider Taiwan a part of china
-They want to destroy the US
They also are nice people
-Japan used to belong to China
-Korea used to belong to China
-They hate japanese A LOT (they all remember the dates of the japanese invasion)
-China is getting a lot of weapons to invade china and korea soon, the same for taiwan
-They consider Taiwan a part of china
-They want to destroy the US
They also are nice people
whatever77
Banned
OK I will game, pray tell, when was last time China was sent to stone age?
Do you even know any history of China.
nelsonroyale
Member
What is the sample size for a poll that purports to represent the 1.3 billion plus people in China?
HolyBaikal
Banned
I wish people could just get along. I'm so tired of people being against each other because of meaningless things like race or nationality or ethnicity.
We are all one people. We are all one race. We are all one nation. We are all one ethnicity.
And war is so terrible. We need love, not war. Peace and love are so beautiful.
I wish for love between Japan and China, and everyone.
I hope so much that love wins out and that people don't hurt each other again. People should let go of the past.
And I don't care who owns what land. I wish there weren't any countries. :<
We are all one people. We are all one race. We are all one nation. We are all one ethnicity.
And war is so terrible. We need love, not war. Peace and love are so beautiful.
I wish for love between Japan and China, and everyone.
I hope so much that love wins out and that people don't hurt each other again. People should let go of the past.
And I don't care who owns what land. I wish there weren't any countries. :<
whatever77
Banned
The whole idea of Westphalian nation state is separate people in half of the time arbitary geographical areas and they compete with each other.
Your move China and/or Japan.
What is this from? At first I was thinking Ghostbusters 2 but it never got that big.
The Blob.
whatever77
Banned
So is Korea with all her neighbors.
So is Japn with all her neighbors.
So is Russia with most of her neighbors.
Twilight Princess
Member
Dunno about the us but the weeaboos will fly or swim over to defend Japan for sure.
entremet
Member
We humans hate each other basically lol.
How large is this poll? not sure if we get accurate polling data for something like this in China. In any case,the leadership has gotten a lot more aggressive in the last year, but I still don't them actually wanting to get into a conflict. And in another five years? Who knows, a China is changing too fast and we don't really know what goes on within the party.
Gucci Messiah
Banned
This reads like a bad Tom Clancy fanfic
DrunkandDrunker
Member
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-09/10/content_18571095.htm
Seems state controlled media leads to rational reactions while the experience with China leads to irrational reaction?
Edit: Weird the source for OP article didn't mention the Japanese side that expected war to break out.
Edit2: My bad, didn't realize there were 2 pages to the article.
This is kinda cool
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-09/10/content_18571095_2.htm
http://time.com/3318650/china-war-japan-2020-poll/
dr3upmushroom
Banned
Come on guys, they just want the Olympics to be held to in Osaka!
This is what happens when China has a rebirth and Japan turns to nationalism in a decline. Both populations have their reasons to bring about petty conflict, whether over a few isles or whatever.
In China's view those islands are restricting Their flow by water, and that's cramping them. Look at the US, it has free access to both of the biggest Oceans while China has to find a way around diplomatic bombs.
thiscoldblack
Unconfirmed Member
Yes, definitely. The majority. About 2,352 Chinese citizens who voted in a poll represent what the 1.4 billion living in China think.
Sensationalist post at its best.
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-09/10/content_18571095.htm
Sensationalist post at its best.
http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2014-09/10/content_18571095.htm
"Few times"? When have we ever not?
bullshit.
Alebrije
Member
Problem with that is that there's a certain giant standing right behind Japan.
Godzilla?
Its more of China won't go to war with Japan because of the U.S.
Same reason Russia is busy attacking a non - nato member.
Escape Goat
Member
Sure it did. Then they repel down through the skylight that they bust open with the torch.
came to post this
uncredited male
Member
This needs to be stated again. The Chinese media has been pushing looming Japanese aggression hard. They are not doing this to ramp up for a war, it is for for economic and domestic interests.
mwahahaha
Yep, and I bet the people who drive up these sentiments are those who have the most to gain from it.
GAF population will decrease by 25% as we all enlist to defend our waifus from the Chinese.
DrunkandDrunker
Member
It doesn't help when Japanese politicians do dumb things like this.
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/sep/09/neo-nazi-photos-pose-headache-for-shinzo-abe
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