It isn't equally likely, at all. There's no plausible way to explain how Ukraine's military would see a plane flying in from the west and assume it belongs to a separatist group that has no aircraft. This would be like the UK shooting down an airliner coming from Canada because they think it's an ISIS military transport.
Yup. What's more likely?
1. The rebels given sophistical equipment that can shoot down aircraft at high altitudes who have shot down cargo planes in the past (and bragged about it) ended up accidentally shooting down a passenger airline not knowing how to differentiate between civilian and military aircraft.
2. The Ukrainian military shot down a civilian plane over their own territory when it's an area where their own cargo planes have been lost and if they somehow didn't know how to use their own equipment they're properly trained on if they even have anything to hit that high since the Russians used an Ukrainian SU-25 to blame which is something that doesn't have a high flight ceiling and a SAM would be much more probable.
Combine that with the fact of everything we've heard about the investigation and cleanup and how the rebels bragged about shooting this one down and immediately deleted it, I'm not sure how you could blame Ukraine unless it's some sort of conspiracy and that's not some "anti-Russian" stance but the most logical stance from what we know. Now everything else that's been reported about Russia taking evidence back to Moscow might have some misinformation but there's A LOT of reports and even the odd stuff like a Russia gov. computer editing the wiki page of the event makes you scratch your head. Why would the rebels keep investigators and reporters away and why would stuff be sent to Moscow without anyone else seeing it? If the video was real, the launchers being sent back to Russia is pretty coincidental as well, eh?
I don't think they did it on purpose, but they're covering up their presence in Ukraine and the gear they gave to the rebels which lead to this tragedy. An accident that still needs resolution nonetheless.
If forming that opinion from all of these reports is somehow bloodlust, then I have some major bloodlust even with my own country when it comes to choosing the facts in front of me instead of what I WANT to believe.
I mean, there's always the chance that this could be some conspiracy but I don't think there's an equal chance of the Ukrainian military doing this at all. These anti-air systems are extremely complicated and takes a lot of training to use properly and anyone in the military with that sort of training would know this wasn't a military aircraft. Friendly fire on the ground in a war zone is one thing, but friendly fire against civilian planes that high up in your own country is slim to none. It's only happened 7 times in the past and they weren't anything like this.
Some people will have their hatred for another country known (on both sides as evident in every thread based on this region), but that doesn't mean every single person is putting their emotions above everything else when they come to the most logical conclusion so far (obviously ever changing as more info comes out) based on what we know.